Are young voters really as Democratic as being portrayed?

[Smash255]

Yes, young people generally are quite liberal, especially as it relates to gay rights and environmental issues.  Abortion is similar to other generations.  The years of Bush has certainly made young voters more Democratic, but the over the top hate breeding conservative movement within the GOP has made it even more so.

The current generation is going to be quite a bit more Democratic and liberal for some  time to come.  If the GOP moves in more of a Megan McCain type of direction perhaps they have a chance of getting a few young people back, and at least closing the gap somewhat (though it will still be overwhelmingly Democratic.  If not they will continue to get in even deeper and deeper with the young vote.

[Smash255]

While the Republicans could change the social strategy they may have already lost many voters that came of voting age this decade because of Bush. There was a chart I saw once on 538.com that showed how the popularity or unpopularity of a presidential administration affect the voting habits of that age group. Surprisingly older voters who came of age during Roosevelt remained strong supporters of Democrats even though they are probably more socially conservative than voters who came of age during the 80s and are avid supporters of the GOP. But the shock was how strongly this new generation of voters is loyal to the Democrats. Surely it will change as time goes on, but it will likely not change by much. I know that I will struggle to consider the Republicans in the future mainly because of Bush even if I agree with their policy.

If Obama and/or the Democratic congress has a drastic failure, than the overly idealistic youth will become disenchanted with Democrats, and vote Republican. That's what happened with Gen X and Carter, no?

In some instances perhaps, but Gen X generally came of age 5-10 years later during the Reagan era.

[Smash255]

I honestly don't believe there is any evidence that social issues are to blame. Sure, young people support gay marriage (though not as much as some want us to believe). So? Who steps into the voting booth and votes on gay marriage?

I don't think the Republicans have to scrap these social issues, they just need to do a better job in explaining them.

What makes you think the support of young people for gay marriage isn't as much as some people want you to believe?  What do you think it is?  


The GOP has become the anti-gay, anti-environment party.  They aren't going to have a chance with young voters if they don't get away from that.

[Smash255]

I honestly don't believe there is any evidence that social issues are to blame. Sure, young people support gay marriage (though not as much as some want us to believe). So? Who steps into the voting booth and votes on gay marriage?

I don't think the Republicans have to scrap these social issues, they just need to do a better job in explaining them.

What makes you think the support of young people for gay marriage isn't as much as some people want you to believe?  What do you think it is?  


The GOP has become the anti-gay, anti-environment party.  They aren't going to have a chance with young voters if they don't get away from that.

Well I'm a young person and I oppose gay marriage. I know many people that agree with me too. But many people who agree that it's wrong don't see any good reason to oppose it. Republicans need to flat out say something along the lines of "gays cannot naturally reproduce to create a family so their marriage is illegitimate and should not be recognized by the state" instead of taking the "sanctity of marriage" dodge. Or something like that.

That is retarded.  Many people get married past child baring ages.  Others simply can't have kids.  Virtually every single poll has gay marriage support at or around 60% for young people.  This really isn't even an argument, its every single poll.  You might not agree with it, but the majority of those in our age rage do (I'm 27 not sure how old you are) and that is simply a cold hard fact.  Unless you consider you and a few of your friends to be a better barometer than every single poll.

[Smash255]

I guess what really gets to me is that people were discussing about how Obama had some sort of "special appeal" toward youths. Not me. I absolutely despised him during the campaign. Now I don't hate him like I used to but I feel no special connection to the man.

If America split 52-47, the youngest voters split about 60-40. There's nothing wrong in being among the 40. Maybe the Right side of the political spectrum will prove right in its assessment of America's needs. Maybe you are one of those who believes that because some executive's signature on your paycheck (or such is implied on the automatic transfer of your pay to a bank account) that you owe loyalty to your boss on politics. Maybe your family owns a business and you believe that a good business climate means one lenient toward the choices of business owners.

Some people think that Obama is still a dangerous demagogue,  loyalties suspect or misplaced. Some find his ability to attract young and enthusiastic voters scary.  Some think that he was grossly unqualified to lead America, having never run a business with the responsibility to meet a payroll. I have seen people compare him to Adolf Hitler (of all people, showing how hysterical people can get) in e-mails.

Voters 18-29 went to Obama 66-32

[Smash255]

But you are dismissing the fact that people get more conservative as they get older. Case in point, McCain won the 65+ group by a greater margin than Bush.

In some cases it does happen.  However, part of that difference is part of the fact that the 65+ group in 08 contained more of post FDR generation (but, pre baby boomer) which has always been a bit more Republican than the FDR generation.  Also, Obama's race likely was a bigger factor with the older white vote the middle aged white vote.

[Smash255]

No, they're liberal. 

Agreed. Did you guys see this Gallup poll?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/120857/Conservatives-Single-Largest-Ideological-Group.aspx

It finds that voters 18-29 are as likely to be liberal (31%) as they are to be conservative (30%). Among all other age groups, people call themselves conservative by a fairly wide margin.

And I would say those that claim to be moderate in that age group tend to be quite a bit more liberal than those who claim to be moderate in other age groups.

[Smash255]

As a member of the 18-30 aged group, I have to say that many members of my generation call themselves liberals even if they aren't. Many hold fairly conservative views but don't call themselves Republicans due to the tarnished name the party carries. I would say that my group is moderate on economics, 50-50 split on abortion, but very pro-gay rights.

One of the things I can't stand is this idea that Republicans need to moderate their position on the so called "gay rights" to appeal to young voters. There is absolutely no evidenced that many people voted for Obama because McCain opposed gay marriage. The problem is that most of our "opinion making class" (and I daresay a dispoportionate amount of political activists on the internet) come from liberal enclaves that do not share the rest of the nation's values. The ral problem is the failure of Republican governance the last eight years.

Did people vote for Obama because of Gay marriage?  No, but their is no question the majority of young voters are in favor of Gay marriage.  That is not even remotely in dispute.  It is also true the GOP has MAJOR problems with young voters.  Granted quite a bit of it has to do with the Bush administration.  However fact of the matter is if the GOP wants even any chance of being even remotely competitive (other than hoping for a drastic collapse by the Dems) they have to moderate on this issue and especially need to cut the asinine rhetoric some throw out there (it goes against God, its an abomination, un-natural, etc)

[Smash255]

Well I have proof that embracing gay marriage won't help much in my state, Ohio, at least. 60% oppose a law allowing same sex couples to marry (civil unions are evenly divided). Among those who know someone who is gay, 53% still oppose. Moreover, even among those 18-34 52% would oppose such a law.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1346

The thing about Gay Rights, and not getting this is one reason the GOP is in so much trouble, is not really about Gays or actual rights, or issues. There are a whole lot of voters who are not Gay, don't really support Gay Marriage, and yet find it unseemly for a politician to make a big deal about opposing Gay Marriage. Its really quite odd, but its basically a type of metric for determining if someone is a nasty person. And far more voters than those who actually support gay rights think politicians who oppose it are mean and nasty.

This is sort of the same way that during the 1990s any Republican who was Pro-Choice was automatically a moderate regardless of other issue positions. The whole thing is weird side effect of the way voters use cues as short-cuts to conclusions.

A good example of this is California with Prop 8. Clearly a majority of voters voted for it, but open support for the Proposition is a fringe position in public, and given the climate of the last few months it mus be even among many of the people who voted for it. Its pretty clear that Meg Whittman is going to have serious trouble in the General Election from her support of Proposition 8.

Part of the reason for this is that the Civil Union position, while superficially appealing, is intellectually unsustainable. If one is religious enough to oppose Marriage, and buys the arguments about weakening it, one should naturally oppose Civil Unions as well. In turn, once someone has legitimized in their own mind that Gay Relationships are equal and deserving of equal recognition it is a very small jump to full marriage. Therefore, while it is a position that appeals to voters in their own minds, it sounds spectacularly condescending or dishonest when proposed by a politician.

The GOP can get by without being the Pro-Gay Marriage party. It will take enormous damage however from being the Anti-Gay Marriage party.

I agree.  I don't think their is any question that the tide is turning on Gay Marriage, but it is more than just the Gay Marriage or Rights issue which is going to wind up hurting the GOP here.  More than that its the hateful rhetoric used by some who are opposed to it.  Calling it an abomination, the worst threat we face, allowing them to exist, dysfunctional, etc.  In order for the GOP to become more than just a regional party they need to be able to get some appeal among young voters and get back some of the educated middle to upper middle class suburbanites who have been leaving the party in droves.   This type of rhetoric and fighting Gay Marriage tooth and nail won't get that done.