538: MO, NH, KY Most Likely Seats to Flip

[I'm Not a Witch]

I don't know if this forum-worthy or not, but you can understand why I chose to post it.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/senate-rankings-june-2009-edition.html :

1. Missouri (R-Open)
I'd promised a couple of weeks ago that we'd have a new #1, and it's Missouri, which displaces the spot that New Hampshire had held for the previous two months. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, a Democrat, has maintained a pretty consistent polling lead. She also has had an easier time with fundraising than Republicans like Roy Blunt and has a cute picture of a pony on her website. What's not to like? Missouri, as always, will be competitive, but Democrats may simply have the more appealing candidate here.

2. New Hampshire (R-Open)
In New Hampshire, we now have a poll from the University of New Hampshire that puts Paul Hodes slightly behind prospective Republican opponent (and former senator) John E. Sununu. If you want to nitpick, UNH polls have a reputation for being a bit erratic, and this was a poll of all adults rather than registered voters (though generally speaking polling adults rather than registered voters tends to help Democrats). Nevertheless, when coupled with somewhat tepid 1Q fundraising numbers for Hodes, this argues for treating this race as more of a toss-up and less of a Lean Democrat. On the other hand, there are not yet any declared Republican candidates, and there is a chance that the Republicans won't nominate a candidate even as strong as Sununu or former U.S. Rep Charlie Bass, whom Hodes defeated in the Democratic wave election of 2006.

...
1. Missouri (R-Open, Kit Bond)
2. New Hampshire (R-Open, Judd Gregg)
3. Kentucky (R-Jim Bunning)
4. Connecticut (D-Chris Dodd)
5. Ohio (R-Open, George Voinovich)
6. Delaware (D-Open, Ted Kaufman)
7. Nevada (D-Harry Reid)
8. Colorado (D-Michael Bennet)
9. North Carolina (R-Richard Burr)
10. Texas (R-Open?, Kay Bailey Hutchison)
11. Illinois (D-Roland Burris)
12. Pennsylvania (D-Arlen Specter)
13. Louisiana (R-David Vitter)
14. Florida (R-Open, Mel Martinez)
15. New York B (D-Kirsten Gillibrand)

Take it away, boys and girls.

[Meeker]

Switch Connecticut and Ohio.

Kentucky is obviously difficult to judge... if Bunning is the nominee then it's ours, if he doesn't then it's probably a lost cause.

Is there an word on Castle running in Delaware?

There's a few others that I might nitpick as well... it's just too early to really know (or care quite frankly).

[I'm Not a Witch]

Switch Connecticut and Ohio.

Kentucky is obviously difficult to judge... if Bunning is the nominee then it's ours, if he doesn't then it's probably a lost cause.

Is there an word on Castle running in Delaware?

There's a few others that I might nitpick as well... it's just too early to really know (or care quite frankly).

I agree about Connecticut and Ohio. Seems a lot more likely that we're going to pick up Ohio than the Republicans are going to take Connecticut.

Kentucky is interesting. Even if Bunning retires, it still might be a close race. If you look at 2008, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was just narrowly elected over Bruce Lunsford, a businessman, by 7 points at the same time John McCain swept the state by 16 points. If Bunning retires, who are the Republicans going to nominate? We obviously have two top-drawer candidates in Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway (I'm rooting for Conway) who have statewide name recognition and have won statewide office. I could see them nominating Secretary of State Trey Grayson, which would make it a competitive race, but if 2010 is a repeat of 2008, I think Democrats will have the edge, even in Kentucky, where Barack Obama won't be on the ticket which will help Democrats in the Bluegrass State.

Haven't heard anything about Mike Castle in Delaware. Last I saw is that he is leaning towards running, but hasn't made it official. If he enters, we'll probably lose Delaware but will probably pick up his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. If not, any generic Democrat should hang onto the seat.

[Lunar]

McConnell suffered because he supported the financial bailout.

It'll still be close, but I wouldn't put any money on a Democrat against Trey Grayson

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

McConnell suffered because he supported the financial bailout.

It'll still be close, but I wouldn't put any money on a Democrat against Trey Grayson

Plus there might have an anti congressional leadership thing going. Glad to see NC so far down even below Delaware, Nevada, and Colorado.

[Lunar]

Ehh..nate silver doesn't really pay attention to local political scenes but acts as if he does  He's right about many of the ones at the top, but he's a numbers guy and polling this far out is just bad.

[Badger]

McConnell suffered because he supported the financial bailout.

It'll still be close, but I wouldn't put any money on a Democrat against Trey Grayson

Plus there might have an anti congressional leadership thing going. Glad to see NC so far down even below Delaware, Nevada, and Colorado.

It's weird. A year ago Democrats were bemoaning the lack of a strong challenger to Dole because the conventional wisdom was that most prominent NC Dems were waiting to challenge Burr who was widely perceived as a weaker target than Dole. Now we have Kay Hagen in the Senate and are scrambling to find a first or even second tier challenger to Burr. I guess the prospect of running in an off year federal election with Obama in the White House and the economy's future still uncertain is scaring most of them off (for now at least).

[SamInTheSouth]

I don't know if this forum-worthy or not, but you can understand why I chose to post it.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/senate-rankings-june-2009-edition.html :

1. Missouri (R-Open)
I'd promised a couple of weeks ago that we'd have a new #1, and it's Missouri, which displaces the spot that New Hampshire had held for the previous two months. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, a Democrat, has maintained a pretty consistent polling lead. She also has had an easier time with fundraising than Republicans like Roy Blunt and has a cute picture of a pony on her website. What's not to like? Missouri, as always, will be competitive, but Democrats may simply have the more appealing candidate here.

2. New Hampshire (R-Open)
In New Hampshire, we now have a poll from the University of New Hampshire that puts Paul Hodes slightly behind prospective Republican opponent (and former senator) John E. Sununu. If you want to nitpick, UNH polls have a reputation for being a bit erratic, and this was a poll of all adults rather than registered voters (though generally speaking polling adults rather than registered voters tends to help Democrats). Nevertheless, when coupled with somewhat tepid 1Q fundraising numbers for Hodes, this argues for treating this race as more of a toss-up and less of a Lean Democrat. On the other hand, there are not yet any declared Republican candidates, and there is a chance that the Republicans won't nominate a candidate even as strong as Sununu or former U.S. Rep Charlie Bass, whom Hodes defeated in the Democratic wave election of 2006.

...
1. Missouri (R-Open, Kit Bond)
2. New Hampshire (R-Open, Judd Gregg)
3. Kentucky (R-Jim Bunning)
4. Connecticut (D-Chris Dodd)
5. Ohio (R-Open, George Voinovich)
6. Delaware (D-Open, Ted Kaufman)
7. Nevada (D-Harry Reid)
8. Colorado (D-Michael Bennet)
9. North Carolina (R-Richard Burr)
10. Texas (R-Open?, Kay Bailey Hutchison)
11. Illinois (D-Roland Burris)
12. Pennsylvania (D-Arlen Specter)
13. Louisiana (R-David Vitter)
14. Florida (R-Open, Mel Martinez)
15. New York B (D-Kirsten Gillibrand)

Take it away, boys and girls.

The Republicans are in a bit of a tough situation in the Senate because so many of their open seats are in swing states, making it more difficult to hold them.  I really think it will all depend on the political environment next year.  A recent Rasmussen poll shows that Americans now trust the GOP more than Democrats on 6 out of 10 issues.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/trust_on_issues/trust_on_issues

Should that trend continue it's possible the GOP could hold onto most or all of those seats plus pick up a couple like Connecticut, Delaware, and Nevada.

It's simply too hard to predict this far out what will happen.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Issue
 Democrats
 Republicans
 
Health Care
 47%
 37%
 
Education
 44%
 37%
 
Social Security
 43%
 37%
 
Abortion
 41%
 41%
 
Economy
 39%
 45%
 
Taxes
 39%
 44%
 
Iraq
 37%
 45%
 
Nat'l Security
 36%
 51%
 
Gov't Ethics
 29%
 35%
 
Immigration
 29%
 43%
 
The top issues to keep and eye on are the Economy and Gov't ethics(this issue help destroy the GOP, if you see the GOP starting to lead continously they may be able to reclaim the same reform mantle that they had in the 90's. A good way to attract Independents. The GOP is recovering is natural and historic lead on NAtional Security. If the Republicans have become identified as the party of Anti-Amnesty then there strong support on Immigration is a good sign, if its the product of confusion then that will not be of any help. Its a good morale boost to have the GOP lead on Iraq but to few care about it to make a real difference. The first three are strange and I think represent a bit of anxiety and impatience for reforms.

The problem with RAsmussen is the methodology does not account for the changes made to the electorate in 2008 as much as other firms methodology does, however I think the turnout in 2010 is going to be closer to that of 2006 in terms of composition, so Rasmussen may be closer to the truth then other firms. This explains why there Approval ratings are less favorable as well, meaning they may be accurate in 2010 but end up like they did in 2000 in 2012.

[a Person]

@title:
In other news, water is wet.

[tokar]

Looks like the July rankings are coming very soon given July starts tomorrow.

I'm guessing:
DE (Castle stuff) goes up
LA (serious challenger) goes up
FL (Rubio seems pretty serious) goes up
OH (good DEM polling) goes up
CT (just the beneficiary of OH going up) goes down
PA (polling data against Toomey, Gerlach out) goes down

[phk]

Democrats should have a decent shot picking up KY. Bunning being primaried would actually increase the R's chance of holding the seat.

Who is Judd Gregg's opponent going to be this year? They ran a sacrificial lamb in 2004.

[Verily]

Democrats should have a decent shot picking up KY. Bunning being primaried would actually increase the R's chance of holding the seat.

Who is Judd Gregg's opponent going to be this year? They ran a sacrificial lamb in 2004.

Gregg's not running for reelection. The Democrats are running Paul Hodes; there is no obvious Republican candidate yet.

[OC]

[Jayhawker]

The darker the color, the more confident I am it will vote that way.

[Vepres]

Issue
 Democrats
 Republicans
 
Health Care
 47%
 37%
 
Education
 44%
 37%
 
Social Security
 43%
 37%
 
Abortion
 41%
 41%
 
Economy
 39%
 45%
 
Taxes
 39%
 44%
 
Iraq
 37%
 45%
 
Nat'l Security
 36%
 51%
 
Gov't Ethics
 29%
 35%
 
Immigration
 29%
 43%

The bold ones surprise me. Does the party out of power historically do better in government ethics?

[Zarn]

I guess being "out of power" means less opportunity to commit corruption.

Works for the NJ Republicans, anyway. :p

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Issue
 Democrats
 Republicans
 
Health Care
 47%
 37%
 
Education
 44%
 37%
 
Social Security
 43%
 37%
 
Abortion
 41%
 41%
 
Economy
 39%
 45%
 
Taxes
 39%
 44%
 
Iraq
 37%
 45%
 
Nat'l Security
 36%
 51%
 
Gov't Ethics
 29%
 35%
 
Immigration
 29%
 43%

The bold ones surprise me. Does the party out of power historically do better in government ethics?

Yes and if it becomes a big national issues it becomes a big help in elections. Also it is an indicator of whether or not the people think Pelosi lived up to her promises of running the most honest, ethical congress in history, and it appears they don't think so. But it won't have a big effect unless you see a wave of scandals that push this issue to the top two or three concerns.

[DemocratsVictory2008]

I would put NC higher up on the list as i really think Burr is vulnerable. He ran well behind Bush in 2004 and no one seems to even realize he's a senator lol

[I'm Not a Witch]

I would put NC higher up on the list as i really think Burr is vulnerable. He ran well behind Bush in 2004 and no one seems to even realize he's a senator lol

I think he knows he's in trouble after watching what happened in his state in 2008. But it will be an interesting race to watch to see how North Carolina will vote without Obama on top of the ticket. I don't think the African American turnout in the state will be as high, but Obama didn't really have coattails for Kay Hagan and Beverly Perdue because they both did better than Obama did in NC. You gotta hand it to Kay Hagan though, I mean, for an unknown state senator to just come out of the woodwork and get her party's nomination and then knock off an incumbent with the last name Dole is pretty darn impressive.