Anderson/Lucey vs. Bush/Crane vs. Hart/Bradley (1984)

[Historico]

Ok...Let's say that America is fed up with Carter's ineptitude but not ready for Ronnie's Staunch Conservatism just yet and goes the third way...John B. Anderson in the 1980 Election.




John B. Anderson/Patrick Lucey: 274 Electoral Votes
Ronald Reagan/George H.W. Bush: 159 Electoral Votes
Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale: 105 Electoral Votes

Ok...Let's say Anderson's first term goes essentially the same as IOTL, pushes for a moderate approach to Economic policy so the economy is slower to recover from the Volcker Recession probally not showing signs of recovery untill '84. Anderson doesn't push for a massive increase in military spending but handles the Soviets essentially how Reagan did IOTL. However is coaliton is showing signs of fraying as the Republicans nominate former Ambassador Bush for the Presidency with conservative congressman Phil Crane as his running mate. The Democrats inorder to distance themselves from the Carter adminstration, goes against Walter Mondale to chose Moderate Colorado Senator Gary Hart for the nomination. Hart picks newly elected California Governor Tom Bradley as his running mate, inorder to placate Black Voters after his divisve campaign against Jesse Jackson. How does the electoral map turn out?

[LINCOLN REPUBLICAN]

The Independent experiment with the Presidency unravels by 1984.  The coalition that Anderson and Lucey had put together in 1980 and defeated an incompetent President was no longer viable.  The Republicans had a strong candidate in the person of George H.W. Bush, former Congressman from Texas, former U.S. Ambassador to the UN, former Chief of the U.S. Liaison Office to the PRC, former Director of the CIA.

Bush is seen as more prepared by the electorate to become President than is the more untested Hart.  Hart is more of a lightweight.  As well, 1984 America would not likely have been prepared for a black Vice President.  The Democrats were not about to nominate Jesse Jackson for President, nor was he picked for the ticket for Vice President IRL.

1984 results

Bush/Crane                     273
Hart/Bradley                    199
Anderson/Lucey                66
 


In 1980, you have Anderson winning 269 out of 538 electoral votes, not enough to win the Presidency outright, as he would have needed 270 to win outright.  269 votes would be exactly half, but not a majority.  So you are assuming that the Democratic controlled House of Representatives of the 97th Congress of the time would have put the Independent Anderson into the Presidency and that the Republican controlled Senate of the time would have put the Independent Lucey into the Vice Presidency.  I am not certain that Democrats in the House and Republicans in the Senate would turn over the Presidency and the Vice Presidency to two Independents.  Although, since the Independents came so close to winning outright, they may have felt compelled to do so.

Of course, Bradley was never Governor of California, but I am assuming that you have made him Governor in this scenario in order to make him a more viable Vice Presidential nominee.

[Historico]

I changed the map to make it seem alittle bit more realistic and an outright Anderson victory in '80...You are correct to assume that Bradley did endeed win the California Gubnetorial Race in 1982. With the economy recovering from a Recession, I think the race would be a heck of alot tighter than what you predicted

http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1980&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=1;9;4&AK=3;3;5&AZ=3;6;4&AR=1;6;4&CA=3;45;4&CO=3;7;4&CT=3;8;5&DE=3;3;4&DC=1;3;7&FL=2;17;4&GA=1;12;5&HI=3;4;4&ID=2;4;4&IL=3;26;3&IN=2;13;3&IA=3;8;4&KS=2;7;4&KY=1;9;4&LA=1;10;4&MD=3;10;3&MA=3;14;6&MI=3;21;3&MN=3;10;3&MS=1;7;4&MO=1;12;3&MT=3;4;4&NE=2;5;4&NV=3;3;4&NH=3;4;5&NJ=3;17;4&NM=2;4;4&NY=3;41;3&NC=1;13;4&ND=3;3;4&OH=2;25;3&OK=2;8;5&OR=3;6;4&PA=2;27;3&RI=3;4;5&SC=1;8;4&SD=2;4;4&TN=1;10;4&TX=2;26;4&UT=2;4;5&VT=3;3;6&VA=2;12;4&WA=3;9;5&WV=1;6;3&WI=3;11;3&WY=2;3;4&ME=3;2;4&ME1=3;1;4&ME2=3;1;4

George H.W. Bush/Phil Crane: 235 Electoral Votes
John B. Anderson/Patrick Lucey: 157 Electoral Votes
Gary Hart/Tom Bradley: 146 Electoral Votes

The Election is thrown to the House, where the Republican Congress elects Bush as the 41st President of the United States.