LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon (D) to Challenge David Vitter (R)?

[I'm Not a Witch]

I didn't see this one coming. I know Melancon is a Blue Dog/conservative Democrat, but does he (or any Democrat anymore) stand a shot at winning a statewide office in Louisiana?

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0509/Melancon_for_Senate.html

"Rep. Charlie Melancon, the only remaining Democratic Congressman from Louisiana, is now said to be re-considering a challenge to Sen. David Vitter (R-La.); a March poll put Melancon 7 points behind him. While I still think there's more smoke than fire here -- Vitter isn't as unpopular in Louisiana as you'd think -- he is sure to make a few entertaining gaffes on route to trying to win reelection and Melancon would have a decent chance with a well-executed campaign." - 538.com

[Lunar]

you had my hopes up insanely before I saw the question mark at the end of your thread title.

I had actually cast out some google news nets today with all of Vitter's likely challengers and it's all nothing new.

Melancon is keeping his ears open, since he wants to be ready to upgrade, but he doesn't seem willing to fight an uphill battle the first off-year after Obama is in office in one of the least Obama-friendly states.  Charlie would be forced to fend his ground from two sides.

Most politicos don't expect him to run.  It'd be a coup of high proportions if he did, there's no one else we could run against that diaper fetish family values guy.

[Mr.Phips]

Melancon's ceiling would likely be 45% in a midterm election with Obama in the White House.  Also, Democrats would almost certainly lose his House seat. 

[Senator Ben]

Hopefully, he'll run.

[Mr.Phips]

Hopefully, he'll run.

I would be shocked if he ran.  He has a pretty safe House seat and I think he realizes that 2010 is probably not a good year to try for a very uphill battle at a Senate seat.  Look at Mary Landrieu's narrow 52%-46% win over a weak Democrat-turned Republican with the swelled black turnout that wont be there in 2010. 

[I'm Not a Witch]

Louisiana has been turning away from the Democrats lately. I agree with the less-than-impressive victory that Mary Landrieu achieved over former State Treasurer John Kennedy, a Democrat who jumped ships and became a Republican simply to run against Landrieu. I think Landrieu was able to achieve her 6-point victory simply because she had better name recognition in the state - I gather that the Landrieu name is pretty popular down there, kinda like the name "Carnahan" is here. But I agree that it will be difficult for Charlie Melancon to get elected even if it is against the tainted David Vitter. Melancon may not even carry his own district - John McCain carried LA-03 with 61 percent of the vote in 2008. I would say get Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu (D) to run against Vitter, but the nepotism might not play so well, so I think right now that Melancon would be our best candidate.

[Lunar]

I've indirectly heard from a number of articles that claim that there's a consensus among LA political analysts that the state wouldn't elect two Landrieu's to the senate at the same time.

The Landrieu name isn't political gold, but it helps to have a Cajun last name if you're running against an Irishman (Vitter is also Cajun, for what it's worth, although that doesn't matter for more than a point or what have you).  The senate race was an oddball campaign with both sides accusing the other person of being a liberal Democrat.

[I'm Not a Witch]

I've indirectly heard from a number of articles that claim that there's a consensus among LA political analysts that the state wouldn't elect two Landrieu's to the senate at the same time.

The Landrieu name isn't political gold, but it helps to have a Cajun last name if you're running against an Irishman (Vitter is also Cajun, for what it's worth, although that doesn't matter for more than a point or what have you).  The senate race was an oddball campaign with both sides accusing the other person of being a liberal Democrat.

Well yeah, it's Louisiana! They don't like baby-killing liberals down there in Bayou Country

[Mr.Phips]

Louisiana has been turning away from the Democrats lately. I agree with the less-than-impressive victory that Mary Landrieu achieved over former State Treasurer John Kennedy, a Democrat who jumped ships and became a Republican simply to run against Landrieu. I think Landrieu was able to achieve her 6-point victory simply because she had better name recognition in the state - I gather that the Landrieu name is pretty popular down there, kinda like the name "Carnahan" is here. But I agree that it will be difficult for Charlie Melancon to get elected even if it is against the tainted David Vitter. Melancon may not even carry his own district - John McCain carried LA-03 with 61 percent of the vote in 2008. I would say get Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu (D) to run against Vitter, but the nepotism might not play so well, so I think right now that Melancon would be our best candidate.

The risk is too high with Melancon.  He would still be a significant underdog and Democrats would almost certainly lose a House seat out of it. 

[Badger]

Hopefully, he'll run.

I would be shocked if he ran.  He has a pretty safe House seat and I think he realizes that 2010 is probably not a good year to try for a very uphill battle at a Senate seat.  Look at Mary Landrieu's narrow 52%-46% win over a weak Democrat-turned Republican with the swelled black turnout that wont be there in 2010. 

But wouldn't that be more than cancelled out by the lack of McCain's coattails? That surely helped make the the Landrieu/Kennedy senate race as surprisingly close as it was. 

Regardless, I agree with the general concensus that the most likely outcome of Melancon running would be a GOP pickup in the House.

[Gravis Marketing]

No one has mentioned that Melancon's district is almost certainly going away in 2012 and, thanks to Katrina, he'll be running against either a New Orleans Democrat or against Boustany in a district anchored in current LA-7.

If he isn't running for Senate, it's because he wants to run for Governor in 2011 or genuinely wants to spend more time with his family in a few years.

[Lief]

Do we really need/want another DINO Senator from Louisiana?

[blagohair.com]

No, but he would be better than Vitter.

[Mr.Phips]

No one has mentioned that Melancon's district is almost certainly going away in 2012 and, thanks to Katrina, he'll be running against either a New Orleans Democrat or against Boustany in a district anchored in current LA-7.

If he isn't running for Senate, it's because he wants to run for Governor in 2011 or genuinely wants to spend more time with his family in a few years.

The Democratic controlled state Senate would almost certainly block any plan that eliminates LA-03. 

[Gravis Marketing]

No one has mentioned that Melancon's district is almost certainly going away in 2012 and, thanks to Katrina, he'll be running against either a New Orleans Democrat or against Boustany in a district anchored in current LA-7.

If he isn't running for Senate, it's because he wants to run for Governor in 2011 or genuinely wants to spend more time with his family in a few years.

The Democratic controlled state Senate would almost certainly block any plan that eliminates LA-03. 

It's Democratic in name only. Louisiana's legislature is effectively controlled by conservative Democrats and Republicans, I believe, and many of those Democrats plan to run for Congress in the future as Republicans if it would advance their careers. The legislature did nothing to help Dems in 2002 redistricting and I am presuming that they will pursue the path of least resistance.

Louisiana is losing a district. The 4th, 5th, and 7th are protected by geography and, in the case of the 7th, demographics. The 1st is probably protected as a concentration of Republican political power and a source of economic power. The 6th could be at risk, as I'll go through below, but has the advantage of a large population. The 2nd needs to gain a lot of population, and the 3rd also lost many residents from St. Bernard Parish and other nearby areas. I think a legislature without concern for incumbency but attuned to partisanship would get rid of the 3rd in a heartbeat.

The options are:
1) Create a Baton Rouge-to-New Orleans district with a bare minority-majority. That's all well and good, but it means that the 6th, 1st, and 3rd districts must compete for the remaining white voters in SE Louisiana. What will those districts look like? Is it conceivable they would abolish the 6th in this case? (Perhaps.)
2) Put New Orleans in the 3rd district. Can Melancon defeat a New Orleans Democrat? I don't think so.
3) Put New Orleans in the 1st district. Is this likely? Assuming the Obama Justice Dept. blesses it, why would the Republicans of suburban New Orleans want a block of Democratic voters in "their" district?

[Mr.Phips]

No one has mentioned that Melancon's district is almost certainly going away in 2012 and, thanks to Katrina, he'll be running against either a New Orleans Democrat or against Boustany in a district anchored in current LA-7.

If he isn't running for Senate, it's because he wants to run for Governor in 2011 or genuinely wants to spend more time with his family in a few years.

The Democratic controlled state Senate would almost certainly block any plan that eliminates LA-03. 

It's Democratic in name only. Louisiana's legislature is effectively controlled by conservative Democrats and Republicans, I believe, and many of those Democrats plan to run for Congress in the future as Republicans if it would advance their careers. The legislature did nothing to help Dems in 2002 redistricting and I am presuming that they will pursue the path of least resistance.

Louisiana is losing a district. The 4th, 5th, and 7th are protected by geography and, in the case of the 7th, demographics. The 1st is probably protected as a concentration of Republican political power and a source of economic power. The 6th could be at risk, as I'll go through below, but has the advantage of a large population. The 2nd needs to gain a lot of population, and the 3rd also lost many residents from St. Bernard Parish and other nearby areas. I think a legislature without concern for incumbency but attuned to partisanship would get rid of the 3rd in a heartbeat.

The options are:
1) Create a Baton Rouge-to-New Orleans district with a bare minority-majority. That's all well and good, but it means that the 6th, 1st, and 3rd districts must compete for the remaining white voters in SE Louisiana. What will those districts look like? Is it conceivable they would abolish the 6th in this case? (Perhaps.)
2) Put New Orleans in the 3rd district. Can Melancon defeat a New Orleans Democrat? I don't think so.
3) Put New Orleans in the 1st district. Is this likely? Assuming the Obama Justice Dept. blesses it, why would the Republicans of suburban New Orleans want a block of Democratic voters in "their" district?

The 2002 redistricting did help Democrats.  It made LA-05 more Democratic and allowed them to pick up that open seat in 2002.  What is likely is that LA-02 is going to have to become somewhat whiter and take in some fast growing areas currently in LA-01.  It is then likely that slow growth districts like LA-04, LA-05, and LA-07 are somehow combined into two. 

[Gravis Marketing]

The 2002 redistricting did help Democrats.  It made LA-05 more Democratic and allowed them to pick up that open seat in 2002.  What is likely is that LA-02 is going to have to become somewhat whiter and take in some fast growing areas currently in LA-01.  It is then likely that slow growth districts like LA-04, LA-05, and LA-07 are somehow combined into two. 

Well, as a Democrat, I hope you're right.

[Lunar]

Anyhooo, Melancon won't run unless Vitter creates an opening, a major issue for Melancon to run on  besides "my opponent is an adulterer with a diaper fetish."

I'm not sure exactly how Vitter has recovered so amazingly well politically besides switching to voting to the right of DeMint.  Rest assured, future politicians will thoroughly examine his model.

[SamInTheSouth]

Hopefully, he'll run.

I would be shocked if he ran.  He has a pretty safe House seat and I think he realizes that 2010 is probably not a good year to try for a very uphill battle at a Senate seat.  Look at Mary Landrieu's narrow 52%-46% win over a weak Democrat-turned Republican with the swelled black turnout that wont be there in 2010. 

But wouldn't that be more than cancelled out by the lack of McCain's coattails? That surely helped make the the Landrieu/Kennedy senate race as surprisingly close as it was. 

Regardless, I agree with the general concensus that the most likely outcome of Melancon running would be a GOP pickup in the House.

If Melancon were to run and the GOP picked up that House seat and assuming that Joseph Cao gets reelected (which I don't think he will), that would give the GOP every Congressional seat in Louisiana, wouldn't it?

[ConservativeforRudy]

Louisiana has been turning away from the Democrats lately. I agree with the less-than-impressive victory that Mary Landrieu achieved over former State Treasurer John Kennedy, a Democrat who jumped ships and became a Republican simply to run against Landrieu. I think Landrieu was able to achieve her 6-point victory simply because she had better name recognition in the state - I gather that the Landrieu name is pretty popular down there, kinda like the name "Carnahan" is here. But I agree that it will be difficult for Charlie Melancon to get elected even if it is against the tainted David Vitter. Melancon may not even carry his own district - John McCain carried LA-03 with 61 percent of the vote in 2008. I would say get Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu (D) to run against Vitter, but the nepotism might not play so well, so I think right now that Melancon would be our best candidate.

this.

[The Mikado]

Hopefully, he'll run.

I would be shocked if he ran.  He has a pretty safe House seat and I think he realizes that 2010 is probably not a good year to try for a very uphill battle at a Senate seat.  Look at Mary Landrieu's narrow 52%-46% win over a weak Democrat-turned Republican with the swelled black turnout that wont be there in 2010. 

His district will get chopped to pieces in the next redistricting in order to keep LA-02 populated enough.  I wouldn't say he's safe after 2010.

[Mr.Phips]

Hopefully, he'll run.

I would be shocked if he ran.  He has a pretty safe House seat and I think he realizes that 2010 is probably not a good year to try for a very uphill battle at a Senate seat.  Look at Mary Landrieu's narrow 52%-46% win over a weak Democrat-turned Republican with the swelled black turnout that wont be there in 2010. 

His district will get chopped to pieces in the next redistricting in order to keep LA-02 populated enough.  I wouldn't say he's safe after 2010.

The Democratic legislature is not going to allow the only Democratic seat in the state to be eliminated. 

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Hopefully, he'll run.

I would be shocked if he ran.  He has a pretty safe House seat and I think he realizes that 2010 is probably not a good year to try for a very uphill battle at a Senate seat.  Look at Mary Landrieu's narrow 52%-46% win over a weak Democrat-turned Republican with the swelled black turnout that wont be there in 2010. 

His district will get chopped to pieces in the next redistricting in order to keep LA-02 populated enough.  I wouldn't say he's safe after 2010.

The Democratic legislature is not going to allow the only Democratic seat in the state to be eliminated. 

If it comes to that or protected the minority-majority district, they will move to protect the 2nd at the expense of the third. Everyone knows that Cao is a dead man walking including the Dems in the legislature.

[Ronnie]

It may cause the NRSC to spend a couple more bucks, but other than that, nah.

[Nutmeg]

Melancon Set to Challenge Vitter
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/06/19/melancon_set_to_challenge_vitter.html

While he is not ready to make a public announcement, John Maginnis reports Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA) has decided to run for the U.S. Senate. Sources say he "he has told national Democratic campaign officials" he will challenge Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) in 2010.

"While Melancon earlier this year seemed to have ruled out running, a renewed press by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, armed with a poll showing Vitter's vulnerability, got Melancon to reconsider."