LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon (D) to Challenge David Vitter (R)?

[Mr.Phips]

Melancon's ceiling would likely be 45% in a midterm election with Obama in the White House.  Also, Democrats would almost certainly lose his House seat. 

[Mr.Phips]

Hopefully, he'll run.

I would be shocked if he ran.  He has a pretty safe House seat and I think he realizes that 2010 is probably not a good year to try for a very uphill battle at a Senate seat.  Look at Mary Landrieu's narrow 52%-46% win over a weak Democrat-turned Republican with the swelled black turnout that wont be there in 2010. 

[Mr.Phips]

Louisiana has been turning away from the Democrats lately. I agree with the less-than-impressive victory that Mary Landrieu achieved over former State Treasurer John Kennedy, a Democrat who jumped ships and became a Republican simply to run against Landrieu. I think Landrieu was able to achieve her 6-point victory simply because she had better name recognition in the state - I gather that the Landrieu name is pretty popular down there, kinda like the name "Carnahan" is here. But I agree that it will be difficult for Charlie Melancon to get elected even if it is against the tainted David Vitter. Melancon may not even carry his own district - John McCain carried LA-03 with 61 percent of the vote in 2008. I would say get Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu (D) to run against Vitter, but the nepotism might not play so well, so I think right now that Melancon would be our best candidate.

The risk is too high with Melancon.  He would still be a significant underdog and Democrats would almost certainly lose a House seat out of it. 

[Mr.Phips]

No one has mentioned that Melancon's district is almost certainly going away in 2012 and, thanks to Katrina, he'll be running against either a New Orleans Democrat or against Boustany in a district anchored in current LA-7.

If he isn't running for Senate, it's because he wants to run for Governor in 2011 or genuinely wants to spend more time with his family in a few years.

The Democratic controlled state Senate would almost certainly block any plan that eliminates LA-03. 

[Mr.Phips]

No one has mentioned that Melancon's district is almost certainly going away in 2012 and, thanks to Katrina, he'll be running against either a New Orleans Democrat or against Boustany in a district anchored in current LA-7.

If he isn't running for Senate, it's because he wants to run for Governor in 2011 or genuinely wants to spend more time with his family in a few years.

The Democratic controlled state Senate would almost certainly block any plan that eliminates LA-03. 

It's Democratic in name only. Louisiana's legislature is effectively controlled by conservative Democrats and Republicans, I believe, and many of those Democrats plan to run for Congress in the future as Republicans if it would advance their careers. The legislature did nothing to help Dems in 2002 redistricting and I am presuming that they will pursue the path of least resistance.

Louisiana is losing a district. The 4th, 5th, and 7th are protected by geography and, in the case of the 7th, demographics. The 1st is probably protected as a concentration of Republican political power and a source of economic power. The 6th could be at risk, as I'll go through below, but has the advantage of a large population. The 2nd needs to gain a lot of population, and the 3rd also lost many residents from St. Bernard Parish and other nearby areas. I think a legislature without concern for incumbency but attuned to partisanship would get rid of the 3rd in a heartbeat.

The options are:
1) Create a Baton Rouge-to-New Orleans district with a bare minority-majority. That's all well and good, but it means that the 6th, 1st, and 3rd districts must compete for the remaining white voters in SE Louisiana. What will those districts look like? Is it conceivable they would abolish the 6th in this case? (Perhaps.)
2) Put New Orleans in the 3rd district. Can Melancon defeat a New Orleans Democrat? I don't think so.
3) Put New Orleans in the 1st district. Is this likely? Assuming the Obama Justice Dept. blesses it, why would the Republicans of suburban New Orleans want a block of Democratic voters in "their" district?

The 2002 redistricting did help Democrats.  It made LA-05 more Democratic and allowed them to pick up that open seat in 2002.  What is likely is that LA-02 is going to have to become somewhat whiter and take in some fast growing areas currently in LA-01.  It is then likely that slow growth districts like LA-04, LA-05, and LA-07 are somehow combined into two. 

[Mr.Phips]

Hopefully, he'll run.

I would be shocked if he ran.  He has a pretty safe House seat and I think he realizes that 2010 is probably not a good year to try for a very uphill battle at a Senate seat.  Look at Mary Landrieu's narrow 52%-46% win over a weak Democrat-turned Republican with the swelled black turnout that wont be there in 2010. 

His district will get chopped to pieces in the next redistricting in order to keep LA-02 populated enough.  I wouldn't say he's safe after 2010.

The Democratic legislature is not going to allow the only Democratic seat in the state to be eliminated. 

[Mr.Phips]

If Melancon were to run and the GOP picked up that House seat and assuming that Joseph Cao gets reelected (which I don't think he will), that would give the GOP every Congressional seat in Louisiana, wouldn't it?

Yes.


I'm predicting that after the 2010 census redistricting, districts 1, 2, and 3 will end up as two districts. And I'm right in the middle of that area right now so there is no telling who my rep. will be after 2012. I'd take Scalise over either Cao or Melancon right now though. I just hope I don't end up with someone like Karen Carter (more liberal than Jefferson who was the most liberal of La. Congressional Delegation and lost in run-off to Jefferson in 2006).

I don't see Melancon beating Vitter in a Senate race. State Rep. Nickie Monica (R) is the most likely challenger for Melancon's seat.

There is no way Cao is being reelected in LA-02, especially now that it looks like Vitter is getting a real challenge and will be lucky to break 30% in the district even if he wins big statewide. 

[Mr.Phips]

Despite his fancy for diapers and hookers, isn't David Vitter still kinda popular in Louisiana? I mean, last time I consulted with the Bible, fornicating with prostitutes isn't exactly what "Christians" preach.

That being said, why is Louisiana becoming more Republican? Last statistics I saw had Louisiana as the second blackest state in the nation (only behind Mississippi), and it was one of five states in which John McCain did better than George W. Bush. Is it because of Hurricane Katrina that displaced many African Americans, or is the Bubba vote growing and just too strong for Democrats to overcome? I'm asking sincerely because my cousin recently relocated to Louisiana but lives in Slidell (wherever that is) and I'm meaning to make a road trip down there to visit her sometime, but not if they don't like "my kind" down there, and by my kind, I mean well, anything other than WASP conservative Republican straight men.

The white vote in the state is probably too much for any Democrat to overcome in the state these days.  Even with the Obama led surge in black turnout in 2008, blacks still made up just 29% of the electorate up from 26% in 2004(which it will likely be around in 2010).  If the blacks showed up in the same proportion of the electorate that they did in 2004, Mary Landrieu would have only beat John Kennedy by a tiny 48%-47% margin, even as she was getting a healthy 33% of the white vote.  Obama got just 14% of the white vote.  Melancon is going to have to do at least as well as Landrieu with whites to beat Vitter. 

[Mr.Phips]

I've been trying to understand this Melancon thing in my head -- why would he be more interested now than earlier this year in running for this seat?  Vitter's favorables have remained solid, and although he's shifted far to the right, he's also avoided a messy primary challenge from someone like the LA secretary of state or the family council dude.  With Obama in the White House, this seems like a horrible idea.

However, I think the LA redistricting establishment has set their sites 110% on defeating Melancon and he was tipped off.  If he thinks he has a 55% at keeping his House seat, and a 40% at grabbing a Senate seat, the calculation easily favors the latter, especially when you consider running statewide with national backing is a lot more fun than fighting to hang onto the gerrymandered remains of half of your old district or what have you.

I mean, hell, the GOP is looking to get a strong challenger out next year and is jetting their local recruiting power on this race, before redistricting even kicks in.  Melancon's odds at staying in Congress could actually be the same or better trying to go for the Senate instead of staying in the House, it's hard to tell at this point before the dust settles.  Rest assured though, Melancon will want to milk all kinds of national fundraising promises in the mean time, no need to play his hand quickly.

Democrats control the state House and Senate and will almost certainly block any redistricting plan that would have hurt Melancon. 

[Mr.Phips]

I believe the governor's office still has a lot of sway in LA, and they are going all-out trying to recruit and fund a challenger to him for the 2010 cycle anyhoo

They wouldnt beat him in LA-03 in its current form.  They ran a popular state Senator from the most heavily Democratic parts of the district in 2006 and Melancon beat him by almost 20 points.