LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon (D) to Challenge David Vitter (R)?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Hopefully, he'll run.

I would be shocked if he ran.  He has a pretty safe House seat and I think he realizes that 2010 is probably not a good year to try for a very uphill battle at a Senate seat.  Look at Mary Landrieu's narrow 52%-46% win over a weak Democrat-turned Republican with the swelled black turnout that wont be there in 2010. 

His district will get chopped to pieces in the next redistricting in order to keep LA-02 populated enough.  I wouldn't say he's safe after 2010.

The Democratic legislature is not going to allow the only Democratic seat in the state to be eliminated. 

If it comes to that or protected the minority-majority district, they will move to protect the 2nd at the expense of the third. Everyone knows that Cao is a dead man walking including the Dems in the legislature.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Time to play like the Democrats, lets pull a Bob Torriceli. Swap Vitter for Dardenne or Scalise. Guaranteed 12 to 15 point GOP victory.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Will Vitter survive the upstart primary challenge from Stormy Daniels?!

If someone were to primary Vitter it would be someone like Scalise who could steal his base in the 1st District, Boustany(God I hope not, He supports Amnesty), and finaly Dardenne who has won statewide a few times.

Time to play like the Democrats, lets pull a Bob Torriceli. Swap Vitter for Dardenne or Scalise. Guaranteed 12 to 15 point GOP victory.

This wouldn't even be pulling a Bob Torricelli. We can actually primary Vitter. 

Yes but the primary challenger might lose, so I would prefer first Vitter to retire for the good of a damage party, unlikely. We can primary him as you say but it isn't Guarrenteed and I would prefer Vitter over one of the challengers. Finally we can rally to Vitter lose a million or two precious dollars from the NRSC, and win a narrow 4 to 5 point victory.