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Author Topic: Dave's Redistricting App  (Read 134443 times)
12th Doctor
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« Reply #100 on: June 15, 2009, 04:33:19 pm »
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P.S.  Unfortunately, the file was corrupted, and I could post the map I created.  I am going to try to recreate it at some point, because it was a good one.
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« Reply #101 on: June 15, 2009, 04:38:55 pm »
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considering that the delegation is 12-7 Dem, it's slightly hard to top that by much..

but yes.. the map would likely flip the 6th and create a 13-5 delegation, at worst.

And the York/Lancaster town results make it possible that the 16th (Pitts/Platts) could be easier to flip.

The Republican seats would be the 5th, 9th, 15th, 16th, and 18th.
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« Reply #102 on: June 15, 2009, 05:03:29 pm »
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considering that the delegation is 12-7 Dem, it's slightly hard to top that by much..

but yes.. the map would likely flip the 6th and create a 13-5 delegation, at worst.

And the York/Lancaster town results make it possible that the 16th (Pitts/Platts) could be easier to flip.

The Republican seats would be the 5th, 9th, 15th, 16th, and 18th.

Assuming that the color scheme is always the same, the 3rd (Dark Purple) would be Republican as well.  Elk county is majority Democratic, but it only votes that way under very specific circumstances.

At the same time is voted for the Democrat President, it also elected my conservative Republican friend over a moderate-left Democratic incumbent for State Rep.

Warren County is very much the same way.
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« Reply #103 on: June 15, 2009, 06:26:55 pm »
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Isn't Elk County a fairly Catholic place? Dahlkemper is a pro-life Catholic, IIRC.

Plus, Erie County gave Dahlkemper the win, and Mercer (a Dahlkemper county) is completely in the 3rd.

The 12th might be a lot tougher post-Murtha, and idk how feasible it is to make a solid Republican 18th and solid Dem 12th.

Unless the 14th is made a bit more red, and the 18th gets some of those 60% McCain areas north of Pittsburgh.
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« Reply #104 on: June 15, 2009, 10:35:32 pm »
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Indiana must practically draw itself.  Our maps are quite similar except for the colors.  I wanted to avoid using the gray color for the Indianapolis district since it is hard to see when there are a lot of city boundaries.

A 3-2-2 paln with 2 for Indianapolis is pretty natural.  You probably could not draw a reasonable district that linked Gary and South Bend or South Bend and Fort Wayne; though you might be able to do Fort Wayne and Elkhart.

And a cross-state district north or south of Indianapolis is going to be be pretty ugly and skinny.

It might be harder to draw an 8-district plan.  Perhaps 3 districts centered on Indianapolis but exteding out further, and the corner districts edging extending along the Ohio and Illinois borders.

I think the main difference in our plans is that I drew the Gary district to include Michigan City, splitting LaPorte Couty, rather than going south.  This put all of Kosciusko County in the South Bend district.

Did you use the 2000 population or the estimates?


I used the estimates.  Despite their inaccuracies I figure they give at least a general idea of major population shifts.  As we only have one election left with the current districts I'm not really interested in seeing how they could be redone.  I'm more interested in seeing what the districts could potentially look like in 2012.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #105 on: June 15, 2009, 10:52:22 pm »
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Isn't Elk County a fairly Catholic place? Dahlkemper is a pro-life Catholic, IIRC.

Plus, Erie County gave Dahlkemper the win, and Mercer (a Dahlkemper county) is completely in the 3rd.

The 12th might be a lot tougher post-Murtha, and idk how feasible it is to make a solid Republican 18th and solid Dem 12th.

Unless the 14th is made a bit more red, and the 18th gets some of those 60% McCain areas north of Pittsburgh.

Well, yes, with someone like Dahlkemper that would be a Dem seat, but that was my point.  Without a specific type of Democrat, some of those, like the your 12th, easily become Republican seats. Even with the right Democrat, its tricky.  All it would take is a good Republican year, and those areas have proven kind to Republican incumbents, just so long as they don't screw up.

A populist Republican would have no trouble taking the your 12th, even with Murtha in the saddle.  Really, even in his current district, which has been tailor made for him, the Republicans could have defeated him in any of those elections this decade if they had only found the right candidate and ran a very aggressive campaign.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #106 on: June 16, 2009, 07:37:04 am »
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I will work on a North Carolina map.
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« Reply #107 on: June 16, 2009, 09:03:22 am »

I have not been able to create jpg files for my maps. I save the state map from the app, and I can find it on my drive. However, the map tp jpg converter on the site can't open the file. Has anyone else encountered this, and if so what fix is there?
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« Reply #108 on: June 16, 2009, 05:36:09 pm »
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I have not been able to create jpg files for my maps. I save the state map from the app, and I can find it on my drive. However, the map tp jpg converter on the site can't open the file. Has anyone else encountered this, and if so what fix is there?

That's another confusing thing about this app -- you use the save on the left-hand size to save the actual map, but the save on the right side to save pictures of the map that the converter uses.
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muon2
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« Reply #109 on: June 16, 2009, 06:52:38 pm »

I have not been able to create jpg files for my maps. I save the state map from the app, and I can find it on my drive. However, the map tp jpg converter on the site can't open the file. Has anyone else encountered this, and if so what fix is there?

That's another confusing thing about this app -- you use the save on the left-hand size to save the actual map, but the save on the right side to save pictures of the map that the converter uses.

After three tries withe left control for the state, I was able to get something that would open and convert to jpg. I made a zoomed area, saved the area, and I still don't get something I can open and convert, at best I get the state map back. Huh
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« Reply #110 on: June 17, 2009, 12:17:33 am »
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I have not been able to create jpg files for my maps. I save the state map from the app, and I can find it on my drive. However, the map tp jpg converter on the site can't open the file. Has anyone else encountered this, and if so what fix is there?

That's another confusing thing about this app -- you use the save on the left-hand size to save the actual map, but the save on the right side to save pictures of the map that the converter uses.

After three tries withe left control for the state, I was able to get something that would open and convert to jpg. I made a zoomed area, saved the area, and I still don't get something I can open and convert, at best I get the state map back. Huh
You have to click the state and area boxes under the Save Maps, and it might not hurt to specify a file name.  When you run the map to jpg converter it generates jpgs for all the maps, but only the state map is displayed by the conversion program.
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« Reply #111 on: June 17, 2009, 01:08:00 am »
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As to who would go where:

CD-01 - Driehaus.
CD-02 - Schmidt.
CD-03 - I think a non-incumbent Dem would be elected here.
CD-04 - Turner.
CD-05 - Boehner.

CD-06 - Kaptur.
CD-07 - Sutton.
CD-08 - Kucinich.
CD-09 - Fudge.
CD-10 - LaTourette.
CD-11 - Boccieri.
CD-12 - Ryan. Wilson might challenge him here, but I doubt he could win.
CD-13 - Austria and Space would fight it out. Don't know who would come out on top.
CD-14 - Tiberi.
CD-15 - Kilroy.
CD-16 - Jordan and Latta fight for the nomination.

Some of these aren't quite accurate, IMO.

In CD-2 you have Boehner giving up his home base of Butler County to Schmidt.  I highly doubt he'll be moving districts for the likes of her.  If she gets put into any other Republican's district she'll go down in the primary.  Republicans will probably jump at the chance to dump her anyways.
In CD-3 Turner would almost certainly run even if he was defeated.  The Republicans wouldn't increase their chances of losing this seat by having Turner leave it open.
In CD-4 Austria is the most likely Republican to run here.  There's no reason for him to run in CD-13 as he lives in Green County near Dayton.
In CD-5 and CD-16 You'd have Latta and Jordan.  There's no need for them to fight in a primary.  You've actually drawn Latta into the Toledo district and Jordan into the red southwest district but I'm sure they would relocate easily.
In CD-10 it is distinctly possible that Ryan might take on LaTourette.  Ryan is considered a rising star and the Dems have been looking for a strong challenger for LaTourette for some time.  This drawing of the district might be Dem friendly enough to give Ryan the victory.
In CD-12 you could see a primary battle between Wilson and Space.  However, Wilson may opt to run in the open CD-13 instead.
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« Reply #112 on: June 17, 2009, 06:46:45 am »
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All right, well, this time I've actually taken into account where the people live. Here's Georgia with a new district:



CD-01 (red) - Jack Kingston I had to displace from his district because I needed all of Savannah for Barrow's district. It's still safe Republican, so all he needs to do is move a bit south.
CD-02 (brown) - Sanford Bishop's district is now a coalition district -- 50.5% non-white. Should be safer to hold once he retires.
CD-03 (pink) - Lynn Westmoreland remains in a pretty similar district.
CD-04 (green) - Hank Johnson's district, basically all of DeKalb County now. 51% black.
CD-05 (dark blue) - John Lewis, again, 51% black and pretty much all of the urban Fulton County district.
CD-06 (light blue) - Tom Price has a much more compact district now, but it includes enough of the ultra-Republican suburbs to remain safe.
CD-07 (light green) - Same for John Linder.
CD-08 (very light purple) - I tried to make Jim Marshall's district a little more favorable to him, but it's tough when he's just slapped down in the middle of the state. It's about 37% black.
CD-09 (light purple) - Nathan Deal remains in solidly-Republican northern Georgia.
CD-10 (teal) - Paul Broun, picking up some of the Republican counties of Barrow's district.
CD-11 (magenta) - Phil Gingrey is yet another Republican in a compressed, although Republican, district.
CD-12 (yellow) - John Barrow's district. I tried to excise some of the Republican territory and give him some more favorable counties. The district is 41% black now.
CD-13 (dark purple) - David Scott remains in the inner suburbs of Atlanta and the district remains majority (51%) black.
CD-14 (grey) - This is the new district, and it's exurban and white enough to be pretty solidly Republican.
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« Reply #113 on: June 17, 2009, 08:28:42 pm »
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I challenge people to do maps, for fun, with Canadian (100,000) or French (125,000)-sized constituencies.
Iowa with 29 districts, with average population of 100,908, maximum deviation 4.0%, average deviation of 1.9%.

6 counties have a population in excess of one district and one or more whole districts was formed within: Polk County (Des Moines) 3.712; Linn (Cedar Rapids) 1.900; Scott (Davenport-Bettendorf) 1.572; Black Hawk (Waterloo-Cedar Falls) 1.269; Johnson (Iowa City) 1.100; Woodbury (Sioux City) 1.029.  Woodbury was not split, since it is only slightly over the limit.

Jackson County was also split.  Dubuque County (Dubuque) was short by about 11.7%, and adding the entirety of a neighboring county would create an excess of at least 6.5%.  The area of Jackson County placed with Dubuque County is largely along the Mississippi River south of Dubuque.

Des Moines, unlike most large city has not been fused with its township so Polk County was divided by townships.  Western Des Moines is Des Moines township with an almost ideal population of 100.4% of the target district population.  Most of the rest of the city is included in Lee township (east) and Bloomfield township (south).  This eastern district also includes Pleasant Hill and Carlisle.  The western suburban district includes large parts of West Des Moines, Windsor Heights, Clive, Urbandale, Grimes, and Johnston.  The northern suburban district, which includes Boone County, contains Ankeny, Saylorville, Altoona, and Bondurant.

Cedar Rapids is the only city that was split.  With a population of 119.6% of the target, area in the far southern part of the city were trimmed off and placed with the rest of Linn County and northern Johnson County.  Johnson County only has a slight overage, and the boundary is north of Iowa City and its suburbs.

Davenport is almost the ideal size of a district (97.5%), leaving the rest of Scott County, including Bettendorf to be paired with Muscatine County.

Waterloo and Cedar Falls together have a population equivalent to 104.0% of the target population, leaving the relatively small excess population of Black Hawk County to be placed in a district with 3 other counties.




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« Reply #114 on: June 17, 2009, 09:30:31 pm »

I challenge people to do maps, for fun, with Canadian (100,000) or French (125,000)-sized constituencies.
Iowa with 29 districts, with average population of 100,908, maximum deviation 4.0%, average deviation of 1.9%.

6 counties have a population in excess of one district and one or more whole districts was formed within: Polk County (Des Moines) 3.712; Linn (Cedar Rapids) 1.900; Scott (Davenport-Bettendorf) 1.572; Black Hawk (Waterloo-Cedar Falls) 1.269; Johnson (Iowa City) 1.100; Woodbury (Sioux City) 1.029.  Woodbury was not split, since it is only slightly over the limit.

Jackson County was also split.  Dubuque County (Dubuque) was short by about 11.7%, and adding the entirety of a neighboring county would create an excess of at least 6.5%.  The area of Jackson County placed with Dubuque County is largely along the Mississippi River south of Dubuque.

Des Moines, unlike most large city has not been fused with its township so Polk County was divided by townships.  Western Des Moines is Des Moines township with an almost ideal population of 100.4% of the target district population.  Most of the rest of the city is included in Lee township (east) and Bloomfield township (south).  This eastern district also includes Pleasant Hill and Carlisle.  The western suburban district includes large parts of West Des Moines, Windsor Heights, Clive, Urbandale, Grimes, and Johnston.  The northern suburban district, which includes Boone County, contains Ankeny, Saylorville, Altoona, and Bondurant.

Cedar Rapids is the only city that was split.  With a population of 119.6% of the target, area in the far southern part of the city were trimmed off and placed with the rest of Linn County and northern Johnson County.  Johnson County only has a slight overage, and the boundary is north of Iowa City and its suburbs.

Davenport is almost the ideal size of a district (97.5%), leaving the rest of Scott County, including Bettendorf to be paired with Muscatine County.

Waterloo and Cedar Falls together have a population equivalent to 104.0% of the target population, leaving the relatively small excess population of Black Hawk County to be placed in a district with 3 other counties.






A different question with IA has to do with their reapportionment. Assuming that they lose one congressional seat, what happens to the nesting of Senate and House seats within each CD? Currently the 5 CDs are divided into 10 Senate districts and each Senate district into 2 House districts. 50 doesn't divide into 4 so either IA changes the nesting rules or the number of State Senators.
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« Reply #115 on: June 18, 2009, 10:34:02 pm »
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A different question with IA has to do with their reapportionment. Assuming that they lose one congressional seat, what happens to the nesting of Senate and House seats within each CD? Currently the 5 CDs are divided into 10 Senate districts and each Senate district into 2 House districts. 50 doesn't divide into 4 so either IA changes the nesting rules or the number of State Senators.
Quote from:  Iowa Code Chapter 42.4.6
  In order to minimize electoral confusion and to facilitate communication within state legislative districts, each plan drawn under this section shall provide that each representative district is wholly included within a single senatorial district and that, so far as possible, each representative and each senatorial district shall be included within a single congressional district.  However, the standards established by subsections 1 through 5 shall take precedence where a conflict arises between these standards and the requirement, so far as possible, of including a senatorial or representative district within a single congressional district.

Nesting of legislative districts within congressional districts is not an absolute standard.  Even when the number of senate districts is a multiple of the number of congressional districts, it may be possible to divide fewer counties with senate district boundaries if CD's are ignored.

Of the 50 senate districts, 17 are contained wholly within one county, but only 4 of the other 33 are comprised solely of whole counties.  Within most CDs, you can draw chains of senate districts that split counties (eg the boundary between SD 9 and SD 12 split a county; as does the 12-16 boundary; the 16-13 boundary; and the 13-42 boundary.  This is the NE CD, with 5 senate districts wholly contained in single counties (2 in Black Hawk (Waterloo-Cedar Falls), 2 in Scott (Davenport-Bettendorf) and 1 in Dubuque (Dubuque).

OTOH, since CDs have a population almost ideal for 10 senate districts, a perimeter of county boundaries, and a tight standard for legislative district populations, it may not be possible to do much better ignoring CDs.  The maximum average absolute deviation for legislative districts is 1%, and largest to smallest is 5%.

Practical answer for 2010 would be to have 12 senate districts wholly within each CD, and have each of the remaining two senate districts span a pair of CDs, such that one house district is within each CD.

The nesting standard is:

SD nest in CD
HD nest in CD
HD nest in SD

Not:

HD nest in SD nest in CD.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #116 on: June 19, 2009, 12:04:29 pm »
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I have two maps of NC, one with 15 and one with 16, but I can't seem to find it, can someone help me?
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« Reply #117 on: June 19, 2009, 01:10:08 pm »
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I have two maps of NC, one with 15 and one with 16, but I can't seem to find it, can someone help me?
Vista or XP?  Do a search for "Silverlight" in your file system.  You may have to set a search option to search for hidden files.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #118 on: June 19, 2009, 03:25:52 pm »
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I have two maps of NC, one with 15 and one with 16, but I can't seem to find it, can someone help me?
Vista or XP?  Do a search for "Silverlight" in your file system.  You may have to set a search option to search for hidden files.

I have XP.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #119 on: June 19, 2009, 03:39:36 pm »
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Ok, I found it, now how do you trun it into a picture?
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« Reply #120 on: June 20, 2009, 11:45:31 am »
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Here's Oregon on six districts, using new population estimates. The growth around Portland means a lot more than a full district fits into Multnomah County, which made for some interesting splits. I tried to do a district running along the coast to group those relatively similar communities together, while the outer Multnomah and Clackamas district takes in Bend, which doesn't fit well with rural Oregon. I'm not sure what the partisan split of the map would be, but I would guess 5 Democrats and 1 Republican. Maybe 4-2.



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« Reply #121 on: June 20, 2009, 12:23:49 pm »
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I should mention that all districts are within 1,000 of ideal.
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« Reply #122 on: June 20, 2009, 12:39:50 pm »
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Massachusetts on 9 districts with current estimates. For some reason, the program makes a weird error involving Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket, but the boundaries should be clear anyway.


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« Reply #123 on: June 20, 2009, 01:00:52 pm »
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Ok, I found it, now how do you trun it into a picture?
When you are running the redistricting app, you need to save a "map".    You can also save additional area maps, which are simply zoomed in areas of your plan.  The map files will be stored in the same place as the plan is saved.

Then on the help page for the redistricting app, look for:

   Map2JPG.exe

This is a program that converts maps into jpg.  You don't need to install it, so can either download it and run it, or click and run it directly.  I had to install Net 3.5 to make it work.

When you run the program you specify the directory and file name where the jpgs are stored.
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« Reply #124 on: June 20, 2009, 01:20:19 pm »
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14-district Michigan, unfortunately a little cut off:



MI-01 (dark blue) - Bart Stupak's district, mostly unchanged, although I removed some of the Republican counties.
MI-02 (magenta, formerly MI-15) - John "Methuselah" Dingell gets a slightly-expanded suburban district, taking in Lenawee County now.
MI-03 (red, includes the former MI-02) - Created by combining MI-02 and MI-03, since Hoekstra is retiring. Won by Obama (I assume Grand Rapids voted more Democratic than Kent County as a whole), but Vern Ehlers would probably be re-elected.
MI-04 (dark green) - Dave Camp's district. Safe Republican.
MI-05 (dark purple) - This is Dale Kildee's district and remains a safe Dem district consisting of Saginaw, Flint, and some surrounding territory.
MI-06 (yellow) - Made more Republican for Fred Upton.
MI-07 (teal) - Made more Democratic for Mark Schauer by including Lansing and removing some more Republican portions.
MI-08 (grey) - Safe Republican seat for Mike Rogers.
MI-09 (light purple) - Joe Knollenberg's district is more or less the same, taking in most of Oakland County.
MI-10 (brown) - Candice Miller's district is more or less unchanged, except for picking up most of Tuscola County.
MI-11 (light blue) - How to get rid of Thad McCotter? Put Ann Arbor in his district! Yes, most of Washtenaw County, won 69-29 by Obama, is now in McCotter's district.
MI-12 (light green) - Here we have Sander Levin, whose district I don't think changed a whole lot.
MI-13 (very light purple) - Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick had to pull in some parts of Conyers' district to remain majority black.
MI-14 (pink) - Conyers remains in majority-black territory as well.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2009, 06:40:33 pm by JohnnyLongtorso »Logged
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