Dave's Redistricting App

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Dave's added California and Kentucky to the app, and apparently will be adding all the remaining states with more than one CD soon.

Edit: It looks like all the 2+ CD states are added at this point. Wow.

[MaxQue]

Dave's added California and Kentucky to the app, and apparently will be adding all the remaining states with more than one CD soon.

Edit: It looks like all the 2+ CD states are added at this point. Wow.

Except Rhode Island and Oklahoma, because of technical problems, his email said.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Utah:



UT-01 (blue, Rob Bishop - R) - Ridiculous population growth causes this one to shrink to the counties north of Salt Lake City. Probably voted around 68-69% McCain.
UT-02 (green, Jim Matheson - D) - Perhaps the Republicans can dispense with the ridiculous attempts at getting rid of Matheson and resign themselves to the fact that, yes, there's going to be one seat in the state that the Democrats can hold. Consists of Summit County, Salt Lake City proper, and some of the surrounding suburbs. Almost undoubtedly voted for Obama.
UT-03 (red, Jason Chaffetz - R) - Made this the "rural district", but the part of Utah County that is in the district is still a large chunk of the population. Really shows you how few people live outside of the SLC/Provo area of the state. Went 70+% for McCain easily.
UT-04 (purple, open) - New suburban district, gonna go out on a limb and guess it's safe Republican. Probably mid-60s for McCain.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Kentucky:



KY-01 (blue, Ed Whitfield - R) - Removed the stupid little tail coming off the southeast end of the district. May have moved a couple of points toward the Dems, but still solidly Republican.
KY-02 (green, Brett Guthrie - R) - Not much changed here, aside from taking in part of the aforementioned stupid tail. Safe Republican.
KY-03 (purple, John Yarmuth - D) - Almost completely unchanged; all but a couple precincts of Louisville. Fairly safe for the Dems.
KY-04 (red, Geoff Davis - R) - Stretch of Republican territory along the Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia borders. Should be pretty safe for the Republicans.
KY-05 (yellow, Hal Rogers - R) - Takes in all the Republican areas of SE Kentucky. Safe Republican.
KY-06 (teal, Ben Chandler - D) - Reconfigured this district to take in all of the most Democratic areas of eastern Kentucky. It's gone from a 12-point McCain margin to about a 3-point McCain margin.

[RBH]

I managed to create a 43% African-American district in Arkansas. Fun times

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[JohnnyLongtorso]

Thought I'd take a look at the other side of the aisle. Given Tennessee's trend towards the Republicans, here's a GOP gerrymander of the state (I used the Ford/Corker numbers from 2006 as a 50/50 baseline for federal elections) intending a 6-3 Republican map:



Click for bigger.

TN-01 (blue, Phil Roe - R) - Didn't change this one much, just reconfigured it to give some of its territory to the Democrats. still uber-safe Republican.
TN-02 (green, John Duncan - R) - Stretches west to take in some Democratic counties from TN-04 and TN-06, but the population remains centered in Knoxville. Will shift the margins for the Republican candidate from the 70s to the 60s, but still a safe seat.
TN-03 (purple, currently open R) - Also stretches out to take some Democratic territory from TN-06, but should remain Republican.
TN-04 (red, Lincoln Davis - D) - Screwed over Lincoln by chopping out most of his district and adding in parts of TN-01 and TN-06. A strong Republican should flip this seat.
TN-05 (yellow, Jim Cooper - D) - One of the two safe Dem seats on the map. Metro Nashville and Robertson County. 58-42 Obama.
TN-06 (teal, Bart Gordon - D) - Again, removed most of the existing district (only three counties of the old TN-06 remain) and added in some Republican territory in the south of the state. As with Lincoln, would probably flip with a strong Republican candidate.
TN-07 (grey, Marsha Blackburn - R) - Didn't change too much, but it did take in a couple Democratic counties. Still safe R though.
TN-08 (light purple, John Tanner - D) - All the most Democratic parts of western Tennessee that aren't Memphis. Tanner should be able to hold it easily, although an open seat might be more interesting.
TN-09 (light blue, Steve Cohen - D) - Memphis! 64% black! 80-20 margins for Democrats!

[muon2]

Here's a remap of CA with 53 districts using the 2008 data. All districts are within 1000 of the ideal population. There are 17 Hispanic-majority districts, 1 Asian-majority district and 1 Black-majority district. The other districts were drawn to maintain compactness and minimize county splits.



Zooming into LA:



Zooming into the Bay Area:



I'll let the local experts speculate on the partisan balance in these districts.

edit: maps modified to reflect some of the comments, including the addition of an Asian-majority district in and around San Jose, and modifying the northern part of LA county.

[Хahar 🤔]

San Jose is split into three districts, and combining the coast between Santa Cruz and Half Moon Bay with Alviso, Milpitas and Fremont isn't a very good idea. But the rest o fthe Bay Area looks fine.

[Sbane]

That district in northwest Orange County and overlapping parts of LA county would be very interesting. I think it would be a swing district with a slight republican lean. Good job joining the Chino hills area with northeast OC. Those areas are pretty similar.

[Joe Cooper]

cd 01 blue
likely d.  Napa, Mendocino, Humboldt strong d, but you include some very high r areas inland, with relatively low population

cd02, green.Yolo, with UC Davis is rabidly Democratic.   Butte County swing. The rest is rabidly R.  Rs outnumber d  lean r

cd03 Sacramento. Probably d, depending on where exactly the lines are drawn

cd04 reed  Republican

cd05 yellow overwhelmingly d. 

cd06 marin.  solid d.

cd 07 grey  solid democratic.   If you expand north, instead of going into Contar Costa County, you will make more d voters from Contra costa available for San Joaquin, which will need them. Solano has 2/3 of the population, and combined with UC Davis in Yolo county could take in almost any R territory north of it. The way you have it, it is taking in some the the most democratic territory in the nation in western contra costa county. then western contra costa county could take in the suburban areas[lean d] of cd 10 to the east of it. cd 4, which is heavily R could take some of the r areas of cd 11, which we just took away from the Rs 3 years ago with some difficulty.  Also, if you give Solano county the area in Sacramento county you gave San Joaquin, Garimendi, who will be elected on November 3, 2009, will be able to live in his district.

cd08 San Francisco. No republican has a ghost of a chance. Independents outnumber republicans by a wide margin.

cd09 light blue. solid d

cd10. contra costa  pink  solid d

cd11  San Joaquin.  tossup. needs some d voters from contra costa


cd 12 San Mateo. solid d

cd 13 Alameda  democratic

cd 14  Santa Cruz, San Mateo. dem

cd 15   Santa Clara democratic.  Once the figures from 2010 are available, a majority Asian district or a majority hispanic district could be drawn in Santa Clara county.

cd 16 Santa Clara democratic

cd 17 Monterey  democratic

cd 18  yellow not too sure, but might be a tossup or  lean r

cd 19  east of 18.  republican

cd20   kings, Fresno republican. parts of the district have 40% unemployment because their water has been cut off. An alternative would be to give Fresno a district all its own, which is almost the exact size.  you cut it up into little pieces.  But then 19 would have to acquire all the desert that is light brown now, Tulare would get kings, and Kern would have a district wholly within the county.

cd 21 Tulare republican.  solid.  Another district with exceptional high unemployment. The water shut down affects the entire San Joaquin valley- San Joaquin county to Kern county.  This area is the bread basket of the nation, so expect higher food prices.

cd 22. Kern and the desert  republican.

City of Fresno would qualify for a district all of its own.

cd 23.  south west coast light blue solid d 

cd 24 inland of 23  solid republican.

i am inclined to think that if San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara is combined in one district, you will have a likely d district. Ventura would be lean or likely r, but improving.

northern Los Angeles and Ventura county: this area has shown explosive growth.  Any district based on Dave's figures would be illusive.

most of the population figures for central Los Angeles county would overestimate the actual population.

minor: why do you include the one channel island in cd 24 to San Luis Obispo and inland Ventura.  Connect it to cd23, which you have on the coast of Ventura.  I know it has, effectively, no population but it looks weird.

northern Santa Clara county.  cd 14, San Mateo, Alameda county connected to each other by some swamps and salt ponds.

Go ahead and give the eastern part of Santa Clara county in 16 to cd17.  both are rural areas and you're already in Santa Clara county with cd17.  somewhere like 500 people would be affected. most of it is state parkland or owned by the City of San Francisco for the Hetch Hetchy project. And the rest is ranchland.

[Devilman88]

I have a North Carolina map, but I seem to can't get it to save as a map.xlm or whatever it's called so I can change it into a .jpg, help.

[cannonia]

cd03 Sacramento. Probably d, depending on where exactly the lines are drawn

It looks like Elk Grove, Rancho Cordova, Citrus Heights, Folsom, etc.  Republican district in a normal year; probably democrat in 2008, but close.

[RBH]

for the sake of fun, you too can create a Hawaii map that has Kauai and most of Honolulu in one county, and Maui/Big Island with the rest of Honolulu in the other district.

Or, create a legal district where Honolulu isn't the majority of voters.

I don't think the Big Island has had a primary or general election where they went en bloc for someone from their island over the opposition. Kauai gave a victory to Gary Hooser in 2006 (and gave him half of their votes).

[platypeanArchcow]

San Jose is split into three districts, and combining the coast between Santa Cruz and Half Moon Bay with Alviso, Milpitas and Fremont isn't a very good idea. But the rest o fthe Bay Area looks fine.

Combining Lancaster with Glendale is similarly inadvisable.  I can't really tell what you did to LA in the absence of landmarks, and therefore can't comment thereon.

[Devilman88]

Here is a map of NC with 14 districts(16EVs), (best map I could do with screen shot).



CD 1: (Blue): Has New Bern and Elizabeth City in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the slight to lean Democratic range. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: G. K. Butterfield (D) )

CD 2: Dark Green: Has Goldboro, Kinston and Southern Wake County in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the slight Democratic to Lean Democratic range. Due to popular Congressman, Lean Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Bob Etheridge (D) )

CD 3: Purple: Has Greenville, Jacksonville and Wilmington in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the Slight to Strong Republican range. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Walter B. Jones (R) )

CD 4: Red: Has Chaple Hill, Durham and Northern Wake County in it. I'm sure this is strong Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: David Price (D) )

CD 5: Yellow: Wilkesboro, Lexington and Mount Airy are in it. I'm sure this is strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Virginia Foxx (R) )

CD 6: Tealish color: Winston-Salem, High Point and Western Guilford County are in it. I believe this is somewhere in the Lean to Strong Democratic. Democratic Pick-up (Current Congressperson: None ) *Note Coble doesn't live in this district any more.*

CD 7: Grey: Lumberton and Fayetteville are in it. I believe this would be Lean Democratic. Democratic Hold  (Current Congressperson: Mike McIntyre (D) )

CD 8: Light Purple: Salisbury, Albemarle and Sanford are in it: I believe this is in the toss-up range. IToss-up (Current Congressperson: Larry Kissell (D) )

CD 9: Light Tealish: Southern Charlotte, Monroe and eastern Gastonia are in it. I'm sure this is Strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Sue Myrick (R) )

CD 10: Pink: Hickory, Statesville, Western Gasonia are in it. I'm sure this is strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Patrick McHenry (R) )

CD 11: Lime: Asheville and Boone are in it: I believe this would be Slight Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Heath Shuler (D) )

CD 12: Light Blueish : Northern Charlotte and Concord are in it. I'm sure this is Strong Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Mel Watt (D) )

CD 13: Paleish Color: Raleigh and Cary are in it. I believe this would be in he Strong Democratic range. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Brad Miller (D) )

CD 14: Dark Yellow: Western Guilford County, Burlington and Eden are in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the toss-up range: Toss-up (Current Congressperson: Howard Coble (R) ) *Note: If Howard Coble does run in 2012, he will win hands down. But when it's open it is toss-up*


Make up before Redistricting: 8 Democratic Congressmember, 5 Republican Congressmember
Make up after Redistricting: 8 Democratic Congressmember, 4 Republican Congressmebmeber, 2 toss-up CD.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

GOP gerrymander of Kansas:



KS-01 (blue, currently open R) - Took heavily Democratic Wyandotte County from KS-03, but remains safe Republican.
KS-02 (green, Lynn Jenkins - R) - Took the rest of Douglas County from KS-03 and expands west to the heavily Republican counties to compensate. 56-44 McCain.
KS-03 (purple, Dennis Moore - D) - Loses all his Democratic territory and gains a bunch of rural Republican counties. 57-43 McCain.
KS-04 (red, currently open R) - Stretches east to take in the one Democratic county in SE Kansas, but the population remains centered in Sedgwick County. 58-42 McCain.

[Devilman88]

Here is a map of NC with 14 districts(16EVs), (best map I could do with screen shot).



CD 1: (Blue): Has New Bern and Elizabeth City in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the slight to lean Democratic range. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: G. K. Butterfield (D) )

CD 2: Dark Green: Has Goldboro, Kinston and Southern Wake County in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the slight Democratic to Lean Democratic range. Due to popular Congressman, Lean Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Bob Etheridge (D) )

CD 3: Purple: Has Greenville, Jacksonville and Wilmington in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the Slight to Strong Republican range. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Walter B. Jones (R) )

CD 4: Red: Has Chaple Hill, Durham and Northern Wake County in it. I'm sure this is strong Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: David Price (D) )

CD 5: Yellow: Wilkesboro, Lexington and Mount Airy are in it. I'm sure this is strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Virginia Foxx (R) )

CD 6: Tealish color: Winston-Salem, High Point and Western Guilford County are in it. I believe this is somewhere in the Lean to Strong Democratic. Democratic Pick-up (Current Congressperson: None ) *Note Coble doesn't live in this district any more.*

CD 7: Grey: Lumberton and Fayetteville are in it. I believe this would be Lean Democratic. Democratic Hold  (Current Congressperson: Mike McIntyre (D) )

CD 8: Light Purple: Salisbury, Albemarle and Sanford are in it: I believe this is in the toss-up range. IToss-up (Current Congressperson: Larry Kissell (D) )

CD 9: Light Tealish: Southern Charlotte, Monroe and eastern Gastonia are in it. I'm sure this is Strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Sue Myrick (R) )

CD 10: Pink: Hickory, Statesville, Western Gasonia are in it. I'm sure this is strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Patrick McHenry (R) )

CD 11: Lime: Asheville and Boone are in it: I believe this would be Slight Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Heath Shuler (D) )

CD 12: Light Blueish : Northern Charlotte and Concord are in it. I'm sure this is Strong Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Mel Watt (D) )

CD 13: Paleish Color: Raleigh and Cary are in it. I believe this would be in he Strong Democratic range. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Brad Miller (D) )

CD 14: Dark Yellow: Western Guilford County, Burlington and Eden are in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the toss-up range: Toss-up (Current Congressperson: Howard Coble (R) ) *Note: If Howard Coble does run in 2012, he will win hands down. But when it's open it is toss-up*


Make up before Redistricting: 8 Democratic Congressmember, 5 Republican Congressmember
Make up after Redistricting: 8 Democratic Congressmember, 4 Republican Congressmebmeber, 2 toss-up CD.

What do you guys think about this? Good, bad?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

NC-01 is probably not majority-black, which runs into VRA issues. Also, NC-12 goes too far into the suburbs to be safe for Mel Watt.

I also don't know that NC-11 needs to be shored up that much for Shuler. He seems perfectly capable of holding that district, since no serious Republican seems to want to run against him.

[muon2]

San Jose is split into three districts, and combining the coast between Santa Cruz and Half Moon Bay with Alviso, Milpitas and Fremont isn't a very good idea. But the rest o fthe Bay Area looks fine.

I adjusted San Jose but I still split it into 3 districts. I combined Cupertino, eastern Fremont, Milpitas and SE San Jose to create an Asian-majority district CD-16. It's just barely over 50%, so there wasn't much I could do about the shape. That puts all of Santa Cruz Co into CD-14 but that CD still has Newark and part of Fremont. Central San Jose adds to CD-17 as an Hispanic-majority district with 54%.

minor: why do you include the one channel island in cd 24 to San Luis Obispo and inland Ventura.  Connect it to cd23, which you have on the coast of Ventura.  I know it has, effectively, no population but it looks weird.

northern Santa Clara county.  cd 14, San Mateo, Alameda county connected to each other by some swamps and salt ponds.

Go ahead and give the eastern part of Santa Clara county in 16 to cd17.  both are rural areas and you're already in Santa Clara county with cd17.  somewhere like 500 people would be affected. most of it is state parkland or owned by the City of San Francisco for the Hetch Hetchy project. And the rest is ranchland.

I fixed the Ventura Co islands. I used your comment to connect CD-17 to the Hispanic areas of central SJ. The connection in CD-14 is on the border which I think includes the South Bay and Nimitz freeways.

Combining Lancaster with Glendale is similarly inadvisable.  I can't really tell what you did to LA in the absence of landmarks, and therefore can't comment thereon.

I didn't have a lot of good choices for Glendale in CD-25 without compromising the Hispanic districts CD-28 to the west or CD-31 to the south. I've edited the area to link Glendale to Santa Clarita and southern Palmdale. That put Lancaster and northern Palmdale with eastern Kern in CD-22. It also caused west Bakersfield to move to CD-24 linking it to SLO.



As I reviewed the LA area it seems that I could create an additional Hispanic-majority district by combining CD-32 (orange: Pico Rivera to Asuza) with either CD-29 (Montebello to Pasadena and Monrovia) to the west or CD-38 (Whittier to Glendora and Claremont) to the east then redividing into a northern and southern piece. Would one of these make more sense than the other?

[Devilman88]

NC-01 is probably not majority-black, which runs into VRA issues. Also, NC-12 goes too far into the suburbs to be safe for Mel Watt.

I also don't know that NC-11 needs to be shored up that much for Shuler. He seems perfectly capable of holding that district, since no serious Republican seems to want to run against him.

I tried to get NC-1 majority-black, but I couldn't!! Also, NC-12 is almost majority-black. I'll try to work on another that makes an majoity-black district.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

2-2 map of Arkansas:



AR-01 (green, Marion Berry - D) - Eastern part of the state, pretty much. 74% white, 21% black. Formerly 60-40 McCain, now 58-42 McCain and probably won by Kerry in 2004.
AR-02 (blue, Vic Snyder - D) - Expands southwards to take in some of the better for Obama areas of Ross's district. 63% white, 29% black. Formerly 55-45 McCain, now 51-49 Obama.
AR-03 (red, John Boozman - R) - I think this district actually contracted. All the population growth must be in the Walmartistan part of the state. 80% white, 2% black, 11% Hispanic. Formerly 66-34 McCain, now 65-35 McCain.
AR-04 (purple, Mike Ross - D) - Loses some historically-Democratic territory in the south-central part of the state and stretches northeast to take in the more Republican parts of AR-01 and AR-02. 84% white, 8% black. Formerly 60-40 McCain, now 69-31 McCain (ouch!).

[Devilman88]

NC-01 is probably not majority-black, which runs into VRA issues. Also, NC-12 goes too far into the suburbs to be safe for Mel Watt.

I also don't know that NC-11 needs to be shored up that much for Shuler. He seems perfectly capable of holding that district, since no serious Republican seems to want to run against him.

Where can I find the VRA rules?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

NC-01 is probably not majority-black, which runs into VRA issues. Also, NC-12 goes too far into the suburbs to be safe for Mel Watt.

I also don't know that NC-11 needs to be shored up that much for Shuler. He seems perfectly capable of holding that district, since no serious Republican seems to want to run against him.

Where can I find the VRA rules?

Basically, the rule is that you can't dilute the minority presence in a majority-minority (at least 50.1% black or Hispanic) district. Coalition districts (say, one that was 40% black and 15% Hispanic) are not protected, however.

[muon2]

NC-01 is probably not majority-black, which runs into VRA issues. Also, NC-12 goes too far into the suburbs to be safe for Mel Watt.

I also don't know that NC-11 needs to be shored up that much for Shuler. He seems perfectly capable of holding that district, since no serious Republican seems to want to run against him.

Where can I find the VRA rules?

Basically, the rule is that you can't dilute the minority presence in a majority-minority (at least 50.1% black or Hispanic) district. Coalition districts (say, one that was 40% black and 15% Hispanic) are not protected, however.

You also cannot pack minority votes into a district such that it would deny them an opportunity to elect candidates of their choice in more than that one district. For example a district with 90% minority next to one with 35% minority would likely be struck down since it is likely that two districts each with over 50% of the minority could be created.

[Vepres]

Just started playing around with this. Here's my R gerrymander of Colorado attempt:



CO-1 (Blue): Pretty much unchanged, solid D.

CO-2 (Green): Removed Summit and Eagle counties as well as the few Denver suburbs it had, replaced them with the conservative northeastern part of the state. Still, Boulder is a big place, I'd say swing district with perhaps a slight D lean.

CO-3 (Purple): NE Colorado was given to CO-2, but in its place CO-3 gets the more conservative SW Colorado. This is a slight lean R district.

CO-4 (Red): Lost SW Colorado, but gained the conservative eastern suburbs of Colorado Springs and the lean-R Jackson county. This is a lean R district, only a very strong Democrat could win.

CO-5 (Yellow): This was once strong-R, but given the fact it lost east El Paso and gained Summit and most of Eagle counties, which are liberal. However, it's still lean R.

CO-6 (Teal): Very similar to the original, strong R lean.

CO-7 (Gray): Lost eastern Adams, but relatively unchanged. This is lean D, though not out of reach for Republicans.

So that makes the state 3 Republican, 1 Democrat, and 3 toss-up (or 4R, 2D, 1T if you include leaners).