Dave's Redistricting App

[Bo]

I'd like to see someone do a strong Democratic gerrymander of Virginia, as in an 8-3 Democratic map (with Boucher included).

[enlightened despot]

Almost surely not, Stephen Lynch lives in South Boston which demographically would never be included in this district.

Thanks!

I tried to make a nine-district map with the assumption that Lynch was either in the above minority-majority district or sharing one with Delahunt. It got very ugly thanks to no incumbents living south of Quincy. It's a long way off, but is there any clue to a retirement or which incumbents might be forced into a primary?

[Brittain33]

I tried to make a nine-district map with the assumption that Lynch was either in the above minority-majority district or sharing one with Delahunt. It got very ugly thanks to no incumbents living south of Quincy. It's a long way off, but is there any clue to a retirement or which incumbents might be forced into a primary?

Olver is getting up there in years and represents a part of the state with declining population and little political clout. The last two districts cut in '82 and '92 were from the western Boston suburbs and from the city of Boston, respectively, so the likelihood is that a western district will go. You can't really do two full districts west of the Worcester area any longer. I've tried, and I end up tethering the city of Worcester to towns far to the east or southeast.

[muon2]

I tried to make a nine-district map with the assumption that Lynch was either in the above minority-majority district or sharing one with Delahunt. It got very ugly thanks to no incumbents living south of Quincy. It's a long way off, but is there any clue to a retirement or which incumbents might be forced into a primary?

Olver is getting up there in years and represents a part of the state with declining population and little political clout. The last two districts cut in '82 and '92 were from the western Boston suburbs and from the city of Boston, respectively, so the likelihood is that a western district will go. You can't really do two full districts west of the Worcester area any longer. I've tried, and I end up tethering the city of Worcester to towns far to the east or southeast.

When I looked at this in August, I cam to the conclusion that CD-2 would have to pick up Worcester.  Here's my post and map from then:

I had some time to play around with the tool this afternoon and looked at the map of MA using the 2008 data. I divided no town except for Boston as this is the primary goal of any MA map. All the districts are within 300 persons of the ideal size which is less than 0.1% maximum variation. I attempted to balance two secondary goals: to keep districts somewhat compact and to keep county fragments to a minimum.



Some items of interest compared to the current map which loses CD 10.

CD 1 picks up Springfield and loses the northern part.

CD 2 shifts east to pick up Worcester and Franklin County.

CD 3 becomes more compact and links the Fitchburg area to Framingham and Dedham.

CD 4 shifts south and east to take in the Cape and Islands from current CD 10.

CD 5 remains centered on Lowell and Lawrence, but dips south to the Woburn area.

CD 6 extends south all the way into the northern part of Boston including Beacon Hill.

CD 7 shifts south to pick up Newton, Brookline and the Allston-Brighton part of Boston.

CD 8 takes up the rest of Boston and the near south suburbs including Quincy.

CD 9 keeps Brockton, but otherwise extends across the south suburbs from RI to Mass Bay.

I'm sure a real map would divide Boston along different lines, but it does give a sense of how much the non-Boston districts would have to shift to pick up population.

[Torie]

If the courts draw the lines in Mass, because in 2010 the Pubbies get more than one third of the seats in one of the houses of the legislature, and a GOP governor is elected, causing a deadlock, what would a non partisan map look like that comports with the law, and would that cause any seat to have a GOP lean, or close to it?  Just curious.

[muon2]

If the courts draw the lines in Mass, because in 2010 the Pubbies get more than one third of the seats in one of the houses of the legislature, and a GOP governor is elected, causing a deadlock, what would a non partisan map look like that comports with the law, and would that cause any seat to have a GOP lean, or close to it?  Just curious.

There's a map in the logo for Red Mass Group that has a number of towns colored red, presumably due to GOP support of some kind there. If I knew what the red specifically represented, I'd be happy to speculate on whether any districts in a neutral map like mine would have any hope for the GOP.

[Bo]

If the courts draw the lines in Mass, because in 2010 the Pubbies get more than one third of the seats in one of the houses of the legislature, and a GOP governor is elected, causing a deadlock, what would a non partisan map look like that comports with the law, and would that cause any seat to have a GOP lean, or close to it?  Just curious.

I think nonpartisan maps often tend to be incumebent-protection maps, so it is unlikely that one district will have a Republican lean.

[enlightened despot]

The Red Mass Group's FAQ says the red areas are where Kerry Healey or Healey plus Christy Mihos had more votes than Deval Patrick in the 2006 gubernatorial election.

[Torie]

If the courts draw the lines in Mass, because in 2010 the Pubbies get more than one third of the seats in one of the houses of the legislature, and a GOP governor is elected, causing a deadlock, what would a non partisan map look like that comports with the law, and would that cause any seat to have a GOP lean, or close to it?  Just curious.

I think nonpartisan maps often tend to be incumebent-protection maps, so it is unlikely that one district will have a Republican lean.

That obtains more for federal court maps (least change principle), than state court maps (which can be anything, and are often more partisan). The matter of how these map drawing get into federal or  state courts in one of those great riddles within the mystery of an enigma or something.

[muon2]

The Red Mass Group's FAQ says the red areas are where Kerry Healey or Healey plus Christy Mihos had more votes than Deval Patrick in the 2006 gubernatorial election.

Thanks. Based on that, it would seem that a modified version of MA-10 should be close. The area in MA-05 looks promising, except for the large population in Lowell and Lawrence.

[Torie]

The Red Mass Group's FAQ says the red areas are where Kerry Healey or Healey plus Christy Mihos had more votes than Deval Patrick in the 2006 gubernatorial election.

Thanks. Based on that, it would seem that a modified version of MA-10 should be close. The area in MA-05 looks promising, except for the large population in Lowell and Lawrence.

Your map does not have a CD 10. Maybe what you meant, is that Mass Pubbies would be competitive in Atlantis. I assume the old CD 10 is based on the Cape, no? That might be trending GOP a bit now, since the gays by and large have moved on now from Provincetown.

[Brittain33]

Your map does not have a CD 10. Maybe what you meant, is that Mass Pubbies would be competitive in Atlantis. I assume the old CD 10 is based on the Cape, no? That might be trending GOP a bit now, since the gays by and large have moved on now from Provincetown.

The gays are still in Provincetown, but the town is such a tiny share of the Cape population (1.5%) that until recently their state house representative was a Republican who survived a 2004 challenge by a lesbian Democrat. (Who later succeeded her when she retired.) 

[jimrtex]

or http://i49.tinypic.com/qyu33r.jpg

Total Population: 720, 584 (-1412 from ideal w/ new population estimates)
White Population: 334, 050 (46%)
Black Population: 161, 746 (22%)
Native Population: 1, 920 (0%)
Asian Population: 68, 915 (10%)
Hispanic Population: 140, 107 (19%)
Other Population: 13, 846 (2%)

Combines all of Cambridge, Somerville, Everett, Chelsea with parts Boston.

The three parts of Boston that are included: Brighton, East Boston, and Roxbury and points south are only connected through the other towns, and it appears that you have split the rest of Boston into 7 separate areas: Back Bay, West Roxbury-Jamaica Plain, 3 areas along the southeastern border, South Boston-Downtown-North End-Charlestown, and part of East Boston near the airport.

So can you slide your district SE to match the border, and then link to East Boston through the harbor.   This will give you two segments for the rest of Boston, and you can simply treat Brookline as an inclusion.  IIRC, the area between Quincy and South Boston just to the east of the main Boston part of your district is actually in Dorchester Harbor and actually iincludes the harbor islands and is part of the East Boston ward (I think the people actually live on the island south of Winthrop).

[Brittain33]

What does including those precincts from Dorchester do to the demographics?

[jimrtex]

If the courts draw the lines in Mass, because in 2010 the Pubbies get more than one third of the seats in one of the houses of the legislature, and a GOP governor is elected, causing a deadlock, what would a non partisan map look like that comports with the law, and would that cause any seat to have a GOP lean, or close to it?  Just curious.

This is based on 2007 town estimates, but 2010 should not be too much different - though the key is which towns fit best with Boston.  On the 2007 estimates, Quincy and Milton were almost a perfect match, but in another year it could be towns on the other side of Boston which could mean shifting about 100,000 people around as the suburban districts rotate.

The federal court (in my better world) will rule that it should not be picking winners and losers as Massachusetts loses a representative, and so incumbents are totally ignored.  Three districts outside the immediate Boston area are created, and the districts are compact and equipopulous.

The Republicans would be hopeful about the light blue district in the western suburbs, and fantasize about winning the yellow western district (Worcester) and the southern and the other three outer suburban districts.

[jimrtex]

What does including those precincts from Dorchester do to the demographics?

I'd guess that it is about 20,000 population total?  So even if it were all white it would be around a 3% shift.  But the direction of growth in the black population is to the south and southeast.  The black population of Quincy has about doubled between the 2000 census and the 2006-2008 ACS (still under 10%) but indicative of what is happening on the other side of the line.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's my Dem gerrymander of Virginia from a few months back for Rochambeau. Of course, this is before Deeds totally collapsed, and I don't think there's anything that can save Boucher. The best possible occurrence would be 8-3, but Frank Wolf isn't going anywhere until he retires, and the Republicans are still alive and kicking in Loudoun and Prince William.

No time wasted...



Click to embiggen.

VA-01 (teal, Rob Wittman - R) - Wittman's district is reconfigured to stretch from the Northern Neck (eastern edge) to the West Virginia border, taking in the exurbs of Northern Virginia along the way. Safe Republican district.
VA-02 (dark green, Glenn Nye - D) - I excised the Republican portions of Virginia Beach, added all of Norfolk and minority-heavy parts of Chesapeake and Suffolk. The district is 35% black now and probably voted pretty strongly for Obama, I'd guess in the high-50s.
VA-03 (dark blue, Bobby Scott - D) - Not much changed here. Removed Norfolk, added Petersburg and some more territory around Richmond. 53% black.
VA-04 (purple, Randy Forbes - R) - Pretty much all the population here is Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, and Chesterfield. The district is solidly Republican now.
VA-05 (red, Tom Perriello - D) - The heavily-Republican southwestern part of the district is removed, and instead it stretches both down southeast to the Greensville/Emporia area and northeast to Caroline/Essex/King & Queen, both Democratic areas. Also included most of Lynchburg, not a heavily Democratic city but friendlier territory than the Bedford area. District probably voted for Obama in the low-50s. Now 27% black.
VA-06 (light green, Bob Goodlatte - R) - Picked up the aforementioned Bedford area, and lost Lynchburg and the Democratic parts of Roanoke. Safe Republican.
VA-07 (yellow, Eric Cantor - R) - Instead of stretching up almost to NoVa, the district now spreads east to the Jamestown/York/Williamsburg historic triangle. Sorry, Williamsburg.
VA-08 (grey, Jim Moran - D) - Alexandria, part of Arlington, and eastern Fairfax. Safe D. Interestingly, this district is only 54% white.
VA-09 (magenta, Rick Boucher - D) - Poor Rick Boucher, can't do much for him. Added the Democratic parts of Roanoke and snaked up to Bath County, so Creigh Deeds could give it a try in the future if he felt like it.
VA-10 (light blue, Frank Wolf - R) - Wondering about the population growth in NoVa? Well, this district now consists solely of Loudoun, Prince William, Clarke, and a sliver of Fairfax. Probably won by Obama with around 55%, Wolf would be able to hold it but it would be a tossup (slightly Dem-leaning) in an open seat.
VA-11 (light purple, Gerry Connolly - D) - western Fairfax, Falls Church, part of Arlington, Manassas/Manassas Park and one or two precincts of Prince William. Safe Dem seat, probably 60%+ for Obama.

[Bo]

Here's my Dem gerrymander of Virginia from a few months back for Rochambeau. Of course, this is before Deeds totally collapsed, and I don't think there's anything that can save Boucher. The best possible occurrence would be 8-3, but Frank Wolf isn't going anywhere until he retires, and the Republicans are still alive and kicking in Loudoun and Prince William.

No time wasted...



Click to embiggen.

VA-01 (teal, Rob Wittman - R) - Wittman's district is reconfigured to stretch from the Northern Neck (eastern edge) to the West Virginia border, taking in the exurbs of Northern Virginia along the way. Safe Republican district.
VA-02 (dark green, Glenn Nye - D) - I excised the Republican portions of Virginia Beach, added all of Norfolk and minority-heavy parts of Chesapeake and Suffolk. The district is 35% black now and probably voted pretty strongly for Obama, I'd guess in the high-50s.
VA-03 (dark blue, Bobby Scott - D) - Not much changed here. Removed Norfolk, added Petersburg and some more territory around Richmond. 53% black.
VA-04 (purple, Randy Forbes - R) - Pretty much all the population here is Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, and Chesterfield. The district is solidly Republican now.
VA-05 (red, Tom Perriello - D) - The heavily-Republican southwestern part of the district is removed, and instead it stretches both down southeast to the Greensville/Emporia area and northeast to Caroline/Essex/King & Queen, both Democratic areas. Also included most of Lynchburg, not a heavily Democratic city but friendlier territory than the Bedford area. District probably voted for Obama in the low-50s. Now 27% black.
VA-06 (light green, Bob Goodlatte - R) - Picked up the aforementioned Bedford area, and lost Lynchburg and the Democratic parts of Roanoke. Safe Republican.
VA-07 (yellow, Eric Cantor - R) - Instead of stretching up almost to NoVa, the district now spreads east to the Jamestown/York/Williamsburg historic triangle. Sorry, Williamsburg.
VA-08 (grey, Jim Moran - D) - Alexandria, part of Arlington, and eastern Fairfax. Safe D. Interestingly, this district is only 54% white.
VA-09 (magenta, Rick Boucher - D) - Poor Rick Boucher, can't do much for him. Added the Democratic parts of Roanoke and snaked up to Bath County, so Creigh Deeds could give it a try in the future if he felt like it.
VA-10 (light blue, Frank Wolf - R) - Wondering about the population growth in NoVa? Well, this district now consists solely of Loudoun, Prince William, Clarke, and a sliver of Fairfax. Probably won by Obama with around 55%, Wolf would be able to hold it but it would be a tossup (slightly Dem-leaning) in an open seat.
VA-11 (light purple, Gerry Connolly - D) - western Fairfax, Falls Church, part of Arlington, Manassas/Manassas Park and one or two precincts of Prince William. Safe Dem seat, probably 60%+ for Obama.

Is there a law that says Congressmen need to live in their CD's, or do you just need to live in the states they're representing? If they just need to live in the state, then Roanoke can be given to either Boucher or Perriello since it is a heavily Democratic city. Also, here's what I would do to get rid of Frank Wolf. I'd make the 10th ditrict cover all of Loundoun, the cities of Arlington, Falls Church, and Vienna, and some other Democratic areas in western Fairfax. That will put Moran and Wolf in the same district but Moran should win since this new district will vote over 60% for Obama. You then give most of Fairfax Country to the 11th district. Then, you give Alexandria, what's left of Fairfax County, Prince William County, and Fredericksburg and some surrounding surburbs to the new 8th district. This should produce three solidly Democratic districts in Northern Virginia. BTW, is it possible for the 3rd to take some more black areas from the 2nd district (not too much through) and then give Petersburg and/or Hopewell to Perriello? This should help shore up his district.

BTW, Johnny, I previously commented on your Indiana Republican gerrymander on how to improve it. I'm not sure if you read what I wrote.

[muon2]

Is there a law that says Congressmen need to live in their CD's, or do you just need to live in the states they're representing? If they just need to live in the state, then Roanoke can be given to either Boucher or Perriello since it is a heavily Democratic city. Also, here's what I would do to get rid of Frank Wolf. I'd make the 10th ditrict cover all of Loundoun, the cities of Arlington, Falls Church, and Vienna, and some other Democratic areas in western Fairfax. That will put Moran and Wolf in the same district but Moran should win since this new district will vote over 60% for Obama. You then give most of Fairfax Country to the 11th district. Then, you give Alexandria, what's left of Fairfax County, Prince William County, and Fredericksburg and some surrounding surburbs to the new 8th district. This should produce three solidly Democratic districts in Northern Virginia. BTW, is it possible for the 3rd to take some more black areas from the 2nd district (not too much through) and then give Petersburg and/or Hopewell to Perriello? This should help shore up his district.

BTW, Johnny, I previously commented on your Indiana Republican gerrymander on how to improve it. I'm not sure if you read what I wrote.

The Constitution only requires a Representative to live in the state. For instance Bean does not live in IL-8, and IL does not place any requirements. Some states do require their US Reps to live in the specific district, but many believe that it is an unconstitutional requirement that would be thrown out if challenged. It is similar to the term limits imposed by some states that goes beyond the specific constitutional requirements and were rejected by the SCOTUS.

However, in those states that do have a residency requirement, serious candidates generally do not want the negative attention that would come from a challenge to their state's law. Thus the residency requirements tend to be effective even if unconstitutional.

[muon2]

The Red Mass Group's FAQ says the red areas are where Kerry Healey or Healey plus Christy Mihos had more votes than Deval Patrick in the 2006 gubernatorial election.

Thanks. Based on that, it would seem that a modified version of MA-10 should be close. The area in MA-05 looks promising, except for the large population in Lowell and Lawrence.

Your map does not have a CD 10. Maybe what you meant, is that Mass Pubbies would be competitive in Atlantis. I assume the old CD 10 is based on the Cape, no? That might be trending GOP a bit now, since the gays by and large have moved on now from Provincetown.

Ah. When I wrote that I was looking at the current MA districts, rather than the districts on my 2010 remap. In 6 of the 15 towns in Barnstable and 12 of the 27 towns in Plymouth County there were more GOP than Dem votes for Gov in 2006. In both counties Patrick was held to under 50% of the total vote, so perhaps that is where the GOP should look for Atlantis.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's my Dem gerrymander of Virginia from a few months back for Rochambeau. Of course, this is before Deeds totally collapsed, and I don't think there's anything that can save Boucher. The best possible occurrence would be 8-3, but Frank Wolf isn't going anywhere until he retires, and the Republicans are still alive and kicking in Loudoun and Prince William.

No time wasted...



Click to embiggen.

VA-01 (teal, Rob Wittman - R) - Wittman's district is reconfigured to stretch from the Northern Neck (eastern edge) to the West Virginia border, taking in the exurbs of Northern Virginia along the way. Safe Republican district.
VA-02 (dark green, Glenn Nye - D) - I excised the Republican portions of Virginia Beach, added all of Norfolk and minority-heavy parts of Chesapeake and Suffolk. The district is 35% black now and probably voted pretty strongly for Obama, I'd guess in the high-50s.
VA-03 (dark blue, Bobby Scott - D) - Not much changed here. Removed Norfolk, added Petersburg and some more territory around Richmond. 53% black.
VA-04 (purple, Randy Forbes - R) - Pretty much all the population here is Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, and Chesterfield. The district is solidly Republican now.
VA-05 (red, Tom Perriello - D) - The heavily-Republican southwestern part of the district is removed, and instead it stretches both down southeast to the Greensville/Emporia area and northeast to Caroline/Essex/King & Queen, both Democratic areas. Also included most of Lynchburg, not a heavily Democratic city but friendlier territory than the Bedford area. District probably voted for Obama in the low-50s. Now 27% black.
VA-06 (light green, Bob Goodlatte - R) - Picked up the aforementioned Bedford area, and lost Lynchburg and the Democratic parts of Roanoke. Safe Republican.
VA-07 (yellow, Eric Cantor - R) - Instead of stretching up almost to NoVa, the district now spreads east to the Jamestown/York/Williamsburg historic triangle. Sorry, Williamsburg.
VA-08 (grey, Jim Moran - D) - Alexandria, part of Arlington, and eastern Fairfax. Safe D. Interestingly, this district is only 54% white.
VA-09 (magenta, Rick Boucher - D) - Poor Rick Boucher, can't do much for him. Added the Democratic parts of Roanoke and snaked up to Bath County, so Creigh Deeds could give it a try in the future if he felt like it.
VA-10 (light blue, Frank Wolf - R) - Wondering about the population growth in NoVa? Well, this district now consists solely of Loudoun, Prince William, Clarke, and a sliver of Fairfax. Probably won by Obama with around 55%, Wolf would be able to hold it but it would be a tossup (slightly Dem-leaning) in an open seat.
VA-11 (light purple, Gerry Connolly - D) - western Fairfax, Falls Church, part of Arlington, Manassas/Manassas Park and one or two precincts of Prince William. Safe Dem seat, probably 60%+ for Obama.

Is there a law that says Congressmen need to live in their CD's, or do you just need to live in the states they're representing? If they just need to live in the state, then Roanoke can be given to either Boucher or Perriello since it is a heavily Democratic city. Also, here's what I would do to get rid of Frank Wolf. I'd make the 10th ditrict cover all of Loundoun, the cities of Arlington, Falls Church, and Vienna, and some other Democratic areas in western Fairfax. That will put Moran and Wolf in the same district but Moran should win since this new district will vote over 60% for Obama. You then give most of Fairfax Country to the 11th district. Then, you give Alexandria, what's left of Fairfax County, Prince William County, and Fredericksburg and some surrounding surburbs to the new 8th district. This should produce three solidly Democratic districts in Northern Virginia. BTW, is it possible for the 3rd to take some more black areas from the 2nd district (not too much through) and then give Petersburg and/or Hopewell to Perriello? This should help shore up his district.

BTW, Johnny, I previously commented on your Indiana Republican gerrymander on how to improve it. I'm not sure if you read what I wrote.

I'm not so sure that your proposed 10th district would be solidly Democratic. Western Fairfax (with the exception of Reston) is still fairly Republican, and Loudoun is still pretty Republican (Obama's percentage was more an aberration than a trend, I think). Moran lives in Alexandria, not Arlington, by the way.

Actually, after the terrible performance by the Dems last year, it would probably be less of a headache for the Democrats to cede the 10th and make the 11th a solidly Dem district. Give the western parts of Fairfax to the 10th and add the Democratic eastern part of Prince William County to the 11th.

I think I saw the comment on my IN map, but I probably just couldn't think of anything to respond with.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Actually, after the terrible performance by the Dems last year, it would probably be less of a headache for the Democrats to cede the 10th and make the 11th a solidly Dem district. Give the western parts of Fairfax to the 10th and add the Democratic eastern part of Prince William County to the 11th.

I think I saw the comment on my IN map, but I probably just couldn't think of anything to respond with.

Ignoring the fact that you are a terrible pessimist, 2009 was not an election to base the future on.  Deeds ran a terrible campaign, and that was why he lost so badly.

[Bo]

Here's my Dem gerrymander of Virginia from a few months back for Rochambeau. Of course, this is before Deeds totally collapsed, and I don't think there's anything that can save Boucher. The best possible occurrence would be 8-3, but Frank Wolf isn't going anywhere until he retires, and the Republicans are still alive and kicking in Loudoun and Prince William.

No time wasted...



Click to embiggen.

VA-01 (teal, Rob Wittman - R) - Wittman's district is reconfigured to stretch from the Northern Neck (eastern edge) to the West Virginia border, taking in the exurbs of Northern Virginia along the way. Safe Republican district.
VA-02 (dark green, Glenn Nye - D) - I excised the Republican portions of Virginia Beach, added all of Norfolk and minority-heavy parts of Chesapeake and Suffolk. The district is 35% black now and probably voted pretty strongly for Obama, I'd guess in the high-50s.
VA-03 (dark blue, Bobby Scott - D) - Not much changed here. Removed Norfolk, added Petersburg and some more territory around Richmond. 53% black.
VA-04 (purple, Randy Forbes - R) - Pretty much all the population here is Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, and Chesterfield. The district is solidly Republican now.
VA-05 (red, Tom Perriello - D) - The heavily-Republican southwestern part of the district is removed, and instead it stretches both down southeast to the Greensville/Emporia area and northeast to Caroline/Essex/King & Queen, both Democratic areas. Also included most of Lynchburg, not a heavily Democratic city but friendlier territory than the Bedford area. District probably voted for Obama in the low-50s. Now 27% black.
VA-06 (light green, Bob Goodlatte - R) - Picked up the aforementioned Bedford area, and lost Lynchburg and the Democratic parts of Roanoke. Safe Republican.
VA-07 (yellow, Eric Cantor - R) - Instead of stretching up almost to NoVa, the district now spreads east to the Jamestown/York/Williamsburg historic triangle. Sorry, Williamsburg.
VA-08 (grey, Jim Moran - D) - Alexandria, part of Arlington, and eastern Fairfax. Safe D. Interestingly, this district is only 54% white.
VA-09 (magenta, Rick Boucher - D) - Poor Rick Boucher, can't do much for him. Added the Democratic parts of Roanoke and snaked up to Bath County, so Creigh Deeds could give it a try in the future if he felt like it.
VA-10 (light blue, Frank Wolf - R) - Wondering about the population growth in NoVa? Well, this district now consists solely of Loudoun, Prince William, Clarke, and a sliver of Fairfax. Probably won by Obama with around 55%, Wolf would be able to hold it but it would be a tossup (slightly Dem-leaning) in an open seat.
VA-11 (light purple, Gerry Connolly - D) - western Fairfax, Falls Church, part of Arlington, Manassas/Manassas Park and one or two precincts of Prince William. Safe Dem seat, probably 60%+ for Obama.

Is there a law that says Congressmen need to live in their CD's, or do you just need to live in the states they're representing? If they just need to live in the state, then Roanoke can be given to either Boucher or Perriello since it is a heavily Democratic city. Also, here's what I would do to get rid of Frank Wolf. I'd make the 10th ditrict cover all of Loundoun, the cities of Arlington, Falls Church, and Vienna, and some other Democratic areas in western Fairfax. That will put Moran and Wolf in the same district but Moran should win since this new district will vote over 60% for Obama. You then give most of Fairfax Country to the 11th district. Then, you give Alexandria, what's left of Fairfax County, Prince William County, and Fredericksburg and some surrounding surburbs to the new 8th district. This should produce three solidly Democratic districts in Northern Virginia. BTW, is it possible for the 3rd to take some more black areas from the 2nd district (not too much through) and then give Petersburg and/or Hopewell to Perriello? This should help shore up his district.

BTW, Johnny, I previously commented on your Indiana Republican gerrymander on how to improve it. I'm not sure if you read what I wrote.

I'm not so sure that your proposed 10th district would be solidly Democratic. Western Fairfax (with the exception of Reston) is still fairly Republican, and Loudoun is still pretty Republican (Obama's percentage was more an aberration than a trend, I think). Moran lives in Alexandria, not Arlington, by the way.

Actually, after the terrible performance by the Dems last year, it would probably be less of a headache for the Democrats to cede the 10th and make the 11th a solidly Dem district. Give the western parts of Fairfax to the 10th and add the Democratic eastern part of Prince William County to the 11th.

I think I saw the comment on my IN map, but I probably just couldn't think of anything to respond with.

According to Moran's Wikipedia article, he lives in Arlington. If you want to make the 10th safer for Frank Wolf, though, I would also recommend taking the Democratic areas in Northerneastern Loundoun County and give them to Gerry Connolly. Wolf can be compensated by receiving some further territory from Western Fairfax County. BTW, it says on Wolf's Wikipedia article that he lives in Vienna, which is outside his district. If that's the case, surely it must be possible to add Roanoke City to either Perriello's or Boucher's districts, despite the fact that Bob Goodlatte lives there. BTW, I agree with Ben in saying that 2009 was a poor year to use as a baseline. Deeds severely underperfomed throughout much of Virginia, but especially in the Northern part. If you want to be fair, use the average of the Obama and Deeds percentages for a baseline. Also, you could use the PVI of each county (which isn't too hard to calculate) as a baseline.

[Verily]

Here's my Dem gerrymander of Virginia from a few months back for Rochambeau. Of course, this is before Deeds totally collapsed, and I don't think there's anything that can save Boucher. The best possible occurrence would be 8-3, but Frank Wolf isn't going anywhere until he retires, and the Republicans are still alive and kicking in Loudoun and Prince William.

No time wasted...



Click to embiggen.

VA-01 (teal, Rob Wittman - R) - Wittman's district is reconfigured to stretch from the Northern Neck (eastern edge) to the West Virginia border, taking in the exurbs of Northern Virginia along the way. Safe Republican district.
VA-02 (dark green, Glenn Nye - D) - I excised the Republican portions of Virginia Beach, added all of Norfolk and minority-heavy parts of Chesapeake and Suffolk. The district is 35% black now and probably voted pretty strongly for Obama, I'd guess in the high-50s.
VA-03 (dark blue, Bobby Scott - D) - Not much changed here. Removed Norfolk, added Petersburg and some more territory around Richmond. 53% black.
VA-04 (purple, Randy Forbes - R) - Pretty much all the population here is Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, and Chesterfield. The district is solidly Republican now.
VA-05 (red, Tom Perriello - D) - The heavily-Republican southwestern part of the district is removed, and instead it stretches both down southeast to the Greensville/Emporia area and northeast to Caroline/Essex/King & Queen, both Democratic areas. Also included most of Lynchburg, not a heavily Democratic city but friendlier territory than the Bedford area. District probably voted for Obama in the low-50s. Now 27% black.
VA-06 (light green, Bob Goodlatte - R) - Picked up the aforementioned Bedford area, and lost Lynchburg and the Democratic parts of Roanoke. Safe Republican.
VA-07 (yellow, Eric Cantor - R) - Instead of stretching up almost to NoVa, the district now spreads east to the Jamestown/York/Williamsburg historic triangle. Sorry, Williamsburg.
VA-08 (grey, Jim Moran - D) - Alexandria, part of Arlington, and eastern Fairfax. Safe D. Interestingly, this district is only 54% white.
VA-09 (magenta, Rick Boucher - D) - Poor Rick Boucher, can't do much for him. Added the Democratic parts of Roanoke and snaked up to Bath County, so Creigh Deeds could give it a try in the future if he felt like it.
VA-10 (light blue, Frank Wolf - R) - Wondering about the population growth in NoVa? Well, this district now consists solely of Loudoun, Prince William, Clarke, and a sliver of Fairfax. Probably won by Obama with around 55%, Wolf would be able to hold it but it would be a tossup (slightly Dem-leaning) in an open seat.
VA-11 (light purple, Gerry Connolly - D) - western Fairfax, Falls Church, part of Arlington, Manassas/Manassas Park and one or two precincts of Prince William. Safe Dem seat, probably 60%+ for Obama.

Is there a law that says Congressmen need to live in their CD's, or do you just need to live in the states they're representing? If they just need to live in the state, then Roanoke can be given to either Boucher or Perriello since it is a heavily Democratic city. Also, here's what I would do to get rid of Frank Wolf. I'd make the 10th ditrict cover all of Loundoun, the cities of Arlington, Falls Church, and Vienna, and some other Democratic areas in western Fairfax. That will put Moran and Wolf in the same district but Moran should win since this new district will vote over 60% for Obama. You then give most of Fairfax Country to the 11th district. Then, you give Alexandria, what's left of Fairfax County, Prince William County, and Fredericksburg and some surrounding surburbs to the new 8th district. This should produce three solidly Democratic districts in Northern Virginia. BTW, is it possible for the 3rd to take some more black areas from the 2nd district (not too much through) and then give Petersburg and/or Hopewell to Perriello? This should help shore up his district.

BTW, Johnny, I previously commented on your Indiana Republican gerrymander on how to improve it. I'm not sure if you read what I wrote.

Johnny's map puts the black parts of Roanoke into Boucher's district. The white parts of Roanoke, where Goodlatte lives, voted for McCain anyway.

[muon2]

If the courts draw the lines in Mass, because in 2010 the Pubbies get more than one third of the seats in one of the houses of the legislature, and a GOP governor is elected, causing a deadlock, what would a non partisan map look like that comports with the law, and would that cause any seat to have a GOP lean, or close to it?  Just curious.

So here is one take on a court-drawn map. I assumed that the special master appointed by the court would start by keeping district cores intact, while eliminating the more egregious gerrymander shapes. MA-1 adds Springfield, since adding Worcester creates a strange loop from Worcester across the northern edge to the Berkshires. That puts Worcester in MA-2, and a handful of towns are left over in Worcester County from the two western CDs.

MA-3 AND MA-4 had the least identifiable cores since they were the must strung out. Since MA-3 lost Worcester, I shifted MA-3 south to New Bedford, including almost all of Bristol County. The new MA-4 essentially replaces the current MA-10 in Plymouth, the Cape and Islands.

In the northeast, MA-6 adds Revere and Lawrence to bring up its population and eliminate the long finger that sticks out to Bedford. That moves MA-5 south to Marlborough and the other adjacent "-boroughs." MA-7 pushes south to gain Somerville and Cambridge and west out to Concord. MA-8 maintains its status as a 50-50 white/minority district by linking south to Brockton. That leaves MA-9 to shift west and north, picking up Allston/Brighton, Back Bay, and West Roxbury in Boston, and towns from Newton out to Framingham.



I can now apply the election data from the 2006 Governor's race, using just the R and D numbers, without the other two candidates. Both MA-4 and MA-5 in the map above could be interesting to the GOP. The 2006 two-party split in MA-4 favors the Dems 52.4 - 47.6, and in MA-5 it would favor the Dems 52.8 - 47.2.