Dave's Redistricting App

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If you want it, e-mail Dave and ask if you can help implement it. It's a laborious task.

[Kevinstat]

Dave should upload smaller and more sensibly-based polygons for Maine and New Hampshire before he adds any more data to states which already have useable building blocks.  Also, apps for the 1-CD states would be nice to facilitate drawing legislative districts or hypothetical congressional districts (like the kind drawn in the "The Trond can't help it..." thread) in those states.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Will he also do one-representative States one day ? I long for Vermont...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Will he also do one-representative States one day ? I long for Vermont...

I asked him about it back when he finished up all the multiple-CD states, and he said he would eventually do it, but I think it's taken a back seat to the partisan data stuff.

[Kevinstat]

Will he also do one-representative States one day ? I long for Vermont...

Me too!  I mean that was the one-representative (or 1-CD as I put it) state I am most interested in playing with a Dave's App and that I was thinking most about when I wrote the second sentence in my last post.  Do you live closer to Vermont than to any other state with only one U.S. Representative, like I do.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'd like for him to go back over the South Carolina data.  He has a number of precincts in growing areas that have been split because of the growth still as a single precinct.  To be fair, he might not have that data, especially at the demographic level, since precinct splitting happens in each election cycle, but some of the splits since 2000 he doesn't note have been in place for a couple of elections now.  My own county will be newly splitting four precincts for the 2010 general election cycle (and would like to do ten more but haven't found suitable places for the new precincts to hold balloting yet.)  The goal is a maximum of 2,000 voters per precinct.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Will he also do one-representative States one day ? I long for Vermont...

Me too!  I mean that was the one-representative (or 1-CD as I put it) state I am most interested in playing with a Dave's App and that I was thinking most about when I wrote the second sentence in my last post.  Do you live closer to Vermont than to any other state with only one U.S. Representative, like I do.

Well, technically yes since I live near Paris. And it's mostly because I like the State politically and culturally speaking, and also because I'd really like to see how its population is distributed. I alrteady managed to draw a 6-districts Vermont using the cities' population datat from wikipedia, but with Dave's app it'd be far better.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's my attempt to an uber-Dem gerrymander for Oregon. Complete control of the redistricting if they go all out might look like this:

[Bo]

Here's my attempt to an uber-Dem gerrymander for Oregon. Complete control of the redistricting if they go all out might look like this:

First of all, I think Oregon will narrowly miss gaining a sixth seat in 2010 and will have to wait until 2020 to get one. Also, shat are the demographics of each district and what are your guesstimates for the Obama-McCain percentages in each district?

[muon2]

The estimated growth of population in OR is such that if the number of seats stays at 5, very little will need to change in the districts to meet the new Census. CD 2 in eastern OR might only need to change by a few Census blocks near Grant's Pass. Since OR has a tradition of minimizing county splits and not crossing the Cascades in the middle of the state, OR-2 may stay virtually the same, regardless of party control.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If only I had more detailed precinct data these would be more accurate.

OR-1: 58% Obama
OR-2: 55% McCain
OR-3: 72% Obama
OR-4: 55% Obama
OR-5: 54% Obama
OR-6: 56% Obama

[Bo]

If only I had more detailed precinct data these would be more accurate.

OR-1: 58% Obama
OR-2: 55% McCain
OR-3: 72% Obama
OR-4: 55% Obama
OR-5: 54% Obama
OR-6: 56% Obama

Reduce the Democratic percentage in OR-03 to 58-60% Obama as best as you can. That district just wastes too many Democratic votes. It would also allow all the other Democratic districts to become at least 58% Obama, which would be important since they would become at least 5% more Democratic than the national average and thus be relatively easy to hold even in bad years.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I could try that later.

Interestingly I just played around with a GOP gerrymander in Minnesota, and found out the GOP goal of combining the Twin Cities could seriously backfire and result in ALL seats being Democratic!

MN-1: I added a bunch more Republican counties to the district (Sibley, McLeod, Redwood and part of Carver) but Walz is probably too tough to be broken.
MN-2: Gets more Democratic. Loses much of Carver county and gains more Democratic areas like the _________ St. Pauls and part of southern Washington County. Kline might be safe but if he retired...
MN-3: Basically Hennepin County minus Minneapolis, Golden Valley and Robbinsdale, plus the parts of Anoka in the current MN-5. Fairly strong Democratic territory, more than the current seat. Paulsen could still survive, but not guaranteed.
MN-4: Ramsey county outside of St. Paul plus the northern suburbs, like almost all of Washington and Anoka counties. Ramsey outside of St. Paul is enough honestly. Even with Elk River in it, it ends up marginally Democratic.
MN-5: Well this is the Minneapolis + St. Paul seat so...
MN-6: Basically the current MN-8 more than Bachmann's seat, runs from the northeast corner to the exurbs and St. Cloud. Oberstar would not lose in such a seat. If he retired it would be competitive but not a sure thing.
MN-7: Gets a bit more Dem. Obviously safe for Peterson, and a likely hold if he retired.

Conversely though it could result in every seat except MN-5 flipping, so the DFL isn't likely to try it.

[Verily]

You're missing obvious opportunities with that Oregon map. The clear correct choice is to connect as much of Southern Oregon to Eastern Oregon as possible. This is made much easier if you connect Bend to eastern Multnomah County through Jefferson, Wasco and Hood River counties. Wasco certainly should not be in the packed Republican seat; it was more Democratic than many of the counties you left in the Democratic districts.

I'm not sure quite how well this works on a six-seat map. On a five-seat map, it works wonders: Southern Oregon (everything south of Lane County) plus Eastern Oregon sans Bend (so dropping Jefferson, Deschutes, Wasco and Hood River Counties from the current OR-02) is almost exactly one district and packs nearly all of the Republican counties in together; to reach the requisite district size, you just need to pick up a few parts of rural Deschutes County (that weird eastern panhandle is a nice place to start).

Then all you need to do is connect the Bend/Hood River corridor to eastern Portland along the Columbia, connect southern Portland through Clackamas County to Salem, connect western Portland to the northwestern areas, including parts of Republican Yamhill County, and lump the rest of the Republican and swing areas in with Eugene and Corvallis to outvote them. That creates four solidly Democratic seats.

Here's a map:



(Note: The splits of Marion and Clackamas Counties were to preserve transit links; the northwestern corner of Clackamas County is most accessible from Wasco County and Multnomah County, not the main areas of Clackamas County, while the river along the Marion/Linn county line is awkward because the road runs along the northern bank in Marion County but the little towns are all on the southern bank in Linn County. The towns have bridges to reach the main road, and they all have no other land connection to the rest of Linn County. The split of Yamhill County was strictly to ensure equal population, while the split of Polk County kept all of Salem together.)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ah, gerrymandering...

[Bo]

You're missing obvious opportunities with that Oregon map. The clear correct choice is to connect as much of Southern Oregon to Eastern Oregon as possible. This is made much easier if you connect Bend to eastern Multnomah County through Jefferson, Wasco and Hood River counties. Wasco certainly should not be in the packed Republican seat; it was more Democratic than many of the counties you left in the Democratic districts.

I'm not sure quite how well this works on a six-seat map. On a five-seat map, it works wonders: Southern Oregon (everything south of Lane County) plus Eastern Oregon sans Bend (so dropping Jefferson, Deschutes, Wasco and Hood River Counties from the current OR-02) is almost exactly one district and packs nearly all of the Republican counties in together; to reach the requisite district size, you just need to pick up a few parts of rural Deschutes County (that weird eastern panhandle is a nice place to start).

Then all you need to do is connect the Bend/Hood River corridor to eastern Portland along the Columbia, connect southern Portland through Clackamas County to Salem, connect western Portland to the northwestern areas, including parts of Republican Yamhill County, and lump the rest of the Republican and swing areas in with Eugene and Corvallis to outvote them. That creates four solidly Democratic seats.

Here's a map:



(Note: The splits of Marion and Clackamas Counties were to preserve transit links; the northwestern corner of Clackamas County is most accessible from Wasco County and Multnomah County, not the main areas of Clackamas County, while the river along the Marion/Linn county line is awkward because the road runs along the northern bank in Marion County but the little towns are all on the southern bank in Linn County. The towns have bridges to reach the main road, and they all have no other land connection to the rest of Linn County. The split of Yamhill County was strictly to ensure equal population, while the split of Polk County kept all of Salem together.)

What are the demographics of each district and your guesstimates of the Obama-McCain percentages in each district? Hopefully each district other than the 2nd is at least 58% Obama.

[Verily]

Oregon is too white for demographics to matter. OR-01 on that map is probably around 57-58% Obama while the rest should be over 60% Obama; OR-05 maybe just under 60%. You could increase the Democratic vote in OR-01 by moving more of rural Clackamas into OR-03 and more of SE Portland into OR-01.

[Bo]

Oregon is too white for demographics to matter. OR-01 on that map is probably around 57-58% Obama while the rest should be over 60% Obama; OR-05 maybe just under 60%. You could increase the Democratic vote in OR-01 by moving more of rural Clackamas into OR-03 and more of SE Portland into OR-01.

If OR-01 and maybe OR-05 are made more Democratic, this would be a great map. I heard that David Wu (OR-01) is a weak incumbent and campaigner and thus it would be nice to have a safer district for him.

[Verily]

Oregon is too white for demographics to matter. OR-01 on that map is probably around 57-58% Obama while the rest should be over 60% Obama; OR-05 maybe just under 60%. You could increase the Democratic vote in OR-01 by moving more of rural Clackamas into OR-03 and more of SE Portland into OR-01.

If OR-01 and maybe OR-05 are made more Democratic, this would be a great map. I heard that David Wu (OR-01) is a weak incumbent and campaigner and thus it would be nice to have a safer district for him.

His new district is OR-04 on this map, which is the safest one, probably around 65% Obama (due to dropping most of Yamhill and gaining NW Portland and the rest of SW Portland).

[Bo]

Oregon is too white for demographics to matter. OR-01 on that map is probably around 57-58% Obama while the rest should be over 60% Obama; OR-05 maybe just under 60%. You could increase the Democratic vote in OR-01 by moving more of rural Clackamas into OR-03 and more of SE Portland into OR-01.

If OR-01 and maybe OR-05 are made more Democratic, this would be a great map. I heard that David Wu (OR-01) is a weak incumbent and campaigner and thus it would be nice to have a safer district for him.

His new district is OR-04 on this map, which is the safest one, probably around 65% Obama (due to dropping most of Yamhill and gaining NW Portland and the rest of SW Portland).

All right, well that's good. However, I would still suggest making OR-01 and OR-05 more Democratic, just to increase the Demcorats' odds of retaining those seats in bad years.

[Verily]

Oregon is too white for demographics to matter. OR-01 on that map is probably around 57-58% Obama while the rest should be over 60% Obama; OR-05 maybe just under 60%. You could increase the Democratic vote in OR-01 by moving more of rural Clackamas into OR-03 and more of SE Portland into OR-01.

If OR-01 and maybe OR-05 are made more Democratic, this would be a great map. I heard that David Wu (OR-01) is a weak incumbent and campaigner and thus it would be nice to have a safer district for him.

His new district is OR-04 on this map, which is the safest one, probably around 65% Obama (due to dropping most of Yamhill and gaining NW Portland and the rest of SW Portland).

All right, well that's good. However, I would still suggest making OR-01 and OR-05 more Democratic, just to increase the Demcorats' odds of retaining those seats in bad years.

The polarization in these seats makes the Republicans winning them basically impossible. Oregon does not have swing voters the way other states do.

[Bo]

Oregon is too white for demographics to matter. OR-01 on that map is probably around 57-58% Obama while the rest should be over 60% Obama; OR-05 maybe just under 60%. You could increase the Democratic vote in OR-01 by moving more of rural Clackamas into OR-03 and more of SE Portland into OR-01.

If OR-01 and maybe OR-05 are made more Democratic, this would be a great map. I heard that David Wu (OR-01) is a weak incumbent and campaigner and thus it would be nice to have a safer district for him.

His new district is OR-04 on this map, which is the safest one, probably around 65% Obama (due to dropping most of Yamhill and gaining NW Portland and the rest of SW Portland).

All right, well that's good. However, I would still suggest making OR-01 and OR-05 more Democratic, just to increase the Demcorats' odds of retaining those seats in bad years.

The polarization in these seats makes the Republicans winning them basically impossible. Oregon does not have swing voters the way other states do.

I would still reduce the risk and make these two seats more Democratic. Remember, a Republican winning a Senate seat in MA was considered practically impossible two months ago. Besides, if a Republican wins the Presidency in a landslide, they could definitely win Oregon and cause several of these congressional seats to flip. That's why it's a good idea to further strengthen these seats.

[Verily]

Oregon is too white for demographics to matter. OR-01 on that map is probably around 57-58% Obama while the rest should be over 60% Obama; OR-05 maybe just under 60%. You could increase the Democratic vote in OR-01 by moving more of rural Clackamas into OR-03 and more of SE Portland into OR-01.

If OR-01 and maybe OR-05 are made more Democratic, this would be a great map. I heard that David Wu (OR-01) is a weak incumbent and campaigner and thus it would be nice to have a safer district for him.

His new district is OR-04 on this map, which is the safest one, probably around 65% Obama (due to dropping most of Yamhill and gaining NW Portland and the rest of SW Portland).

All right, well that's good. However, I would still suggest making OR-01 and OR-05 more Democratic, just to increase the Demcorats' odds of retaining those seats in bad years.

The polarization in these seats makes the Republicans winning them basically impossible. Oregon does not have swing voters the way other states do.

I would still reduce the risk and make these two seats more Democratic. Remember, a Republican winning a Senate seat in MA was considered practically impossible two months ago. Besides, if a Republican wins the Presidency in a landslide, they could definitely win Oregon and cause several of these congressional seats to flip. That's why it's a good idea to further strengthen these seats.

You'd need a Republican winning 55+% nationwide to win any of those seats, at which point any partisanship numbers have to be thrown out the window anyway because weird things will start to happen.

[Bo]

Oregon is too white for demographics to matter. OR-01 on that map is probably around 57-58% Obama while the rest should be over 60% Obama; OR-05 maybe just under 60%. You could increase the Democratic vote in OR-01 by moving more of rural Clackamas into OR-03 and more of SE Portland into OR-01.

If OR-01 and maybe OR-05 are made more Democratic, this would be a great map. I heard that David Wu (OR-01) is a weak incumbent and campaigner and thus it would be nice to have a safer district for him.

His new district is OR-04 on this map, which is the safest one, probably around 65% Obama (due to dropping most of Yamhill and gaining NW Portland and the rest of SW Portland).

All right, well that's good. However, I would still suggest making OR-01 and OR-05 more Democratic, just to increase the Demcorats' odds of retaining those seats in bad years.

The polarization in these seats makes the Republicans winning them basically impossible. Oregon does not have swing voters the way other states do.

I would still reduce the risk and make these two seats more Democratic. Remember, a Republican winning a Senate seat in MA was considered practically impossible two months ago. Besides, if a Republican wins the Presidency in a landslide, they could definitely win Oregon and cause several of these congressional seats to flip. That's why it's a good idea to further strengthen these seats.

You'd need a Republican winning 55+% nationwide to win any of those seats, at which point any partisanship numbers have to be thrown out the window anyway because weird things will start to happen.

Republicans can win some of those seats in bad years for the Democrats. Also, even if a Republican Presidential candidate wins 51-52% of the nationwide popular vote, good Republican candidates might be able to win some of those Oregon seats. Thus I think it is essential to make each of the four districts as Democratic as possible and pack as many Republicans as possible into Greg Walden's district.

[Verily]

No, they couldn't win any of those seats with a 51-52% victory. Sorry.

Also, it quite simply is not possible to pack any more Republicans into Walden's district than I did.