Dave's Redistricting App

[Brittain33]

The South Hills are not much more friendly to the Democrats than the North Hills... less so, in fact.  Murphy is already there, and already has a presence on the ground and a relationship with the people.

What exactly constitutes the South Hills that would be included in the district I described? Allegheny County only has 1.2 million people and is majority Democratic, I don't think if you wrap the North Hills together and South Hills together plus part of Westmoreland and Butler based on today's 18th, AND have a Democratic district in Pittsburgh, you're going to have more than 1.5 million people. I took more territory and people from Murtha's district than from the 18th.

[12th Doctor]

The South Hills are not much more friendly to the Democrats than the North Hills... less so, in fact.  Murphy is already there, and already has a presence on the ground and a relationship with the people.

What exactly constitutes the South Hills that would be included in the district I described? Allegheny County only has 1.2 million people and is majority Democratic, I don't think if you wrap the North Hills together and South Hills together plus part of Westmoreland and Butler based on today's 18th, AND have a Democratic district in Pittsburgh, you're going to have more than 1.5 million people. I took more territory and people from Murtha's district than from the 18th.

As I said earlier, one thing that you have to get about Allegheny County is that the overwhelming majority of Democrats are concentrated on the small strips of land between the rivers and the highlands.  Those areas are often 90 percent Democratic.  The areas away from the rivers, on the other hand, tend to greatly favor the Republicans, not by the same overawing majority, but with enough so as the Republicans control most of the action there.

As loosely defined, the "South Hills" includes basically all of southern Allegheny County, south of Pittsburgh proper, that is not a part of the Mon Valley.

[12th Doctor]

P.S.  did you post this map, Britt?

[Brittain33]

P.S.  did you post this map, Britt?

I posted it here several months ago, I think. I have it on my computer... little of the South Hills is in the 4th district. I kept the existing 14th/4th border on the north side. The 4th then includes a strip of townships and communities one deep from Fox Chapel westward, connects with the river at Glenfield, and includes everything northwest between Ohio Twp. and Bell Acres Twp. and the river. On the south shore of the river, I took in most of Moon Twp. and Crescent Twp. only.

I extended the 14th east and south into the 18th for population equality in a way that would probably make you flinch for its indiscriminateness, but it's safe D and the 18th is safe R, so it doesn't matter.  

The rest of Allegheny County--the South Hills, the top two tiers of townships, the northeast--are in the 18th, along with a somewhat reduced chunk of Westmoreland. And all of Butler County. Although from what you said, I should move northern Butler into the 12th and give Murphy back some more of Westmoreland.

The rest of the 4th is all of Washington, Greene, Beaver, and Lawrence Counties, with a small piece of Mercer.

My rationale in redistricting was to eliminate the 5th and see what happens, which is an indefensible start for a Pennsylvania map. It pulls the 10th and the 3rd together in the middle of the state with the 9th rising to meet it, and you've pointed out the problems there for the 3rd.

[Bo]

I dare everybody to post the most extreme gerrymander that they can make in any state. It has to extremely favor one of the two parties, though--not a really nasty incumbent protection-type gerrymander.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Okay, here's my attempt at a 7-1 Republican map for Missouri (assuming they lose a district).



Cracks the Kansas City area by splitting it up among three districts (no VRA protection, MO-5 is majority-white) and dismantles Carnahan's district by giving the urban parts to Lacy Clay (his district is 49.7% black -- I doubt it can remain majority-black if the state loses a district) and the suburban parts to Jo Ann Emerson. Of course, Skelton could probably still hold his district, but either way he's the only Dem who could.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Because Nixon will be Governor until 2013 at the earliest, Missouri will probably do an incumbent protection map. Skelton probably retires and his seat gets chopped, guy is so old I don't see the point in preserving him.

[Bo]

Okay, here's my attempt at a 7-1 Republican map for Missouri (assuming they lose a district).



Cracks the Kansas City area by splitting it up among three districts (no VRA protection, MO-5 is majority-white) and dismantles Carnahan's district by giving the urban parts to Lacy Clay (his district is 49.7% black -- I doubt it can remain majority-black if the state loses a district) and the suburban parts to Jo Ann Emerson. Of course, Skelton could probably still hold his district, but either way he's the only Dem who could.

Good map. Anyone else dare rise to the challenge?

[Linus Van Pelt]

I just drew a Michigan gerrymander that I think would go 13-1 Democratic right now, possibly 11-3 in a good year for Republicans but still intensely favoring the Democrats and mostly safe. Will post it later.

I'd still be interested in seeing this, if you have it.

[Verily]

I'll post the Michigan one in a bit. For now, here's a gerrymander of Arizona with ten districts. The goal was to make all Democratic incumbents safe while adding a new Hispanic-majority district (and a new solidly Republican district); I think I succeeded impressively.

AZ-01: This district loses the Mormon areas of Navajo County (Taylor/Snowflake) as well as various white rural areas. It becomes a coalition district at 49% white, 24% Native, 22% Hispanic, 3% black, 1% Asian, 1% Other. Should be safe for Ann Kirkpatrick provided she can keep the Natives and Hispanics voting (and the remaining white areas are the less conservative areas around Sedona and Flagstaff, where Kirkpatrick lives).

AZ-02: This district drops its extension to the Hopi reservation and with that contracts into Glendale and environs. Still safely Republican.

AZ-03: Mostly unchanged but contracts towards Phoenix. Still safely Republican.

AZ-04: Less Hispanic than previously to accomodate the new AZ-10, but still 56% Hispanic. Safely Democratic.

AZ-05: Loses the most heavily Republican areas on the fringes and takes in some Hispanic areas previously over the border in AZ-06. Still potentially competitive but increasingly less so, and definitely safer for Mitchell. 56% white, 31% Hispanic.

AZ-06: Contracts a bit and loses some Hispanic areas to AZ-05, becoming even more solidly Republican.

AZ-07: Because I am loathe to waste Democratic votes in a gerrymander, this district now takes in the Hopi reservation by snaking along the Colorado River. Now 51% Hispanic, 38% white, 6% Native, enough to easily pass muster. Safely Democratic.

AZ-08: Loses some Republican areas of Pima and Cochise Counties to the new AZ-09. Now just Tucson and the border. 63% white, 27% Hispanic, and the new district may have voted for Obama. Safe for Giffords although potentially competitive without her.

AZ-09: The glorious gerrymander. Outer exurban Phoenix and all sorts of assortments of white areas in the desert and in small towns. Safely Republican and the glue that makes the map work.

AZ-10: New Hispanic-majority district in SW/S Phoenix. 55% Hispanic, 31% white, 9% black.

[Verily]

Here's the Michigan Democratic gerrymander.

MI-01: The UP and extending south all the way to Bay City. Somewhat more Democratic than currently although still marginal. Certainly safe for Bart Stupak.

MI-02: Flint plus some Republican/moderate areas to the northeast. Safely Democratic.

MI-03: Eastern Oakland County, excluding the most Republican areas of the county in the southwest. Lean Democratic, should be pretty safe for an incumbent.

MI-04: The Grosse Pointes plus east Macomb County and coastal St Claire. Safely Democratic.

MI-05: East Detroit plus Republican areas of north Macomb County. LOL. 51% black, safely Democratic.

MI-06: West Detroit plus Republican areas of southwest Oakland County. LOL again. 63% black, safely Democratic. (In theory equalizing MI-05 and MI-06 in terms of percent black should be possible, but it would involve a much more intricate gerrymander because the Republican areas of each are not adjacent.)

MI-07: Centered on Dearborn, Wayne County suburbs. Safely Democratic. Would be interesting to see Arab/Middle Eastern percentage (not available).

MI-08: Saginaw and extending up to Grand Traverse. Fairly marginal, only lean Democratic at best.

MI-09: Grand Rapids proper plus Muskegon and the Democratic areas along Lake Michigan. Safely Democratic.

MI-10: Ottawa County, Grand Rapids suburbs and various rural Republican areas. Safely Republican.

MI-11: Lansing, Jackson and some Republican rural areas. Safely Democratic.

MI-12: Kalamazoo and the Democratic areas of southwest Michigan. More solidly Democratic than Presidential results suggest. Safely Democratic.

MI-13: Ann Arbor, Republican-leaning Livingston County and outer Oakland County and some rural areas. Safely Democratic.

MI-14: Hispanic south Detroit, Wayne County suburbs and some moderate areas along the border. Safely Democratic.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Thanks! It's quite something that you can keep two black-majority districts while still giving Wayne the Chicago-style treatment.

But don't you think Upton could hold CD-12?

[Verily]

I drew the map without considering current congressmen for the most part. Upton could definitely hold MI-12, but he'd lose in the first Democratic wave, and the seat wouldn't flip back.

[RBH]

I'd love to see a closeup of Wayne County on that map.

Johnny, your map makes me thankful that Kenny Hulshof isn't the Governor of Missouri. And the CD6 portion of Jackson County would not be helpful to Graves. Because I live in the area that you put in Graves district and then i'd have to become a perennial candidate under that map.

You could probably put Boone in CD4 and not turn it too Dem, since you could swap that ugly northern CD6 tail to CD9 and give CD6 parts of CD4

[Bo]

I just drew a Michigan gerrymander that I think would go 13-1 Democratic right now, possibly 11-3 in a good year for Republicans but still intensely favoring the Democrats and mostly safe. Will post it later.

I'd still be interested in seeing this, if you have it.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Republican gerrymander of Ohio, assuming it loses two districts:



Essentially the only sure districts for the Dems are the two Cleveland districts, the spindly teal district, the three-pronged eastern district (in a coup, I managed to put Space, Ryan, *and* Wilson all in the same district) and the pink district.

[Bo]

I think the black % in MI-06 should be reduced to 51%. If you do not know where the close Republican areas are, just add some lesser white Democratic areas to the district (even white Democratic areas are somewhat more Republican than black Democratic areas). This would allow the Dems to make several of their seats even safer.

[Verily]

Shut up, Rochambeau.

Here's a zoom-in of the Detroit metro. I made some changes along the edges of MI-06 when I realized how black Southfield was and put it into MI-03.

Without city labels, and then with:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Republican gerrymander of Ohio, assuming it loses two districts:



Essentially the only sure districts for the Dems are the two Cleveland districts, the spindly teal district, the three-pronged eastern district (in a coup, I managed to put Space, Ryan, *and* Wilson all in the same district) and the pink district.

That green district in the middle, ugh.

I think Betty Sutton could survive fairly easily in that pink district though. Obama and even Kerry carried that district solidly.

[Bo]

Shut up, Rochambeau.

That was uncalled for.

[nhmagic]

Can someone do a max republican Arizona gerrymander?

[RBH]

this isn't a partisan gerrymander, it's a geographic gerrymander



AZ-01 (open)
total: 722321 people, 73% white, 19% Hispanic
Maricopa: 483348 people, 82% white, 11% Hispanic
Rest: 238973 people, 54% white, 34% Hispanic, 7% Native American



AZ-02 (Franks)
total: 722255 people, 74% white, 19% Hispanic
Maricopa: 431803 people, 70% white, 23% Hispanic
Rest: 290452 people, 80% white, 14% Hispanic



AZ-03 (Kirkpatrick)
total: 722183 people, 69% white, 19% Hispanic, 6% Native American
Maricopa: 433732 people, 68% white, 21% Hispanic
Rest: 288451 people, 69% white, 15% Hispanic, 12% Native American

AZ-04 (Pastor or Grivalva)
total: 722173 people, 64% Hispanic, 24% white, 7% African-American
Maricopa: 429102 people, 71% Hispanic, 15% white, 10% African-American
Rest: 293071 people, 54% Hispanic, 37% white

AZ-05 (open)
total: 722278 people, 56% white, 21% Hispanic, 17% Native American
Maricopa: 432406 people, 66% white, 24% Hispanic
Rest: 289872 people, 42% white, 39% Native American, 17% Hispanic

AZ-06 (Flake)
total: 722230 people, 71% white, 22% Hispanic
Maricopa: 437737 people, 68% white, 25% Hispanic
Rest: 284493 people, 74% white, 18% Hispanic



AZ-07 (Pastor or Grivalva)
total: 722225 people, 53% Hispanic, 36% white
Maricopa: 434442 people, 50% Hispanic, 39% white, 6% African-American
Rest: 287783 people, 59% Hispanic, 32% white

AZ-08 (Giffords?)
total: 722228 people, 66% white, 22% Hispanic
Maricopa: 437693 people, 66% white, 21% Hispanic
Rest: 284535 people, 65% white, 22% Hispanic

AZ-09 (Mitchell)
total: 722243 people, 57% white, 31% Hispanic
Maricopa: 434564 people, 52% white, 35% Hispanic
Rest: 287679 people, 65% white, 25% Hispanic






I didn't actually intend to almost split Tucson between 6 districts. It just happened.

In case you didn't notice, I intended to make every district have a majority of it's population reside in Maricopa County.

[Verily]

Cool. Shows just how dominant Maricopa County is in Arizona politics.

Anyway, I tried to do a Republican gerrymander but got lost because I had no idea which white areas of the Phoenix metro were uber-Republican and which were moderate to Democratic (beyond some obvious things, like Mesa being a Republican stronghold). But I imagine a map with three Democrats and seven Republicans would be feasible, with all three Democratic seats being heavily Hispanic. It might not be possible to get rid of Giffords (because there isn't much you can do in Tucson, and any fiddling with the AZ-01 border makes either Giffords or Kirkpatrick safer), but you could make it impossible for the Democrats to hold her seat without her.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I'm working on a Republican gerrymander of NY. So far I'm still working on New York City and Long Island. I have made NY-1 and NY-9 into two McCain districts. I hope to post maps soon.

[nhmagic]

Cool. Shows just how dominant Maricopa County is in Arizona politics.

Anyway, I tried to do a Republican gerrymander but got lost because I had no idea which white areas of the Phoenix metro were uber-Republican and which were moderate to Democratic (beyond some obvious things, like Mesa being a Republican stronghold). But I imagine a map with three Democrats and seven Republicans would be feasible, with all three Democratic seats being heavily Hispanic. It might not be possible to get rid of Giffords (because there isn't much you can do in Tucson, and any fiddling with the AZ-01 border makes either Giffords or Kirkpatrick safer), but you could make it impossible for the Democrats to hold her seat without her.

Central Phoenix/West Phoenix/South Phoenix-democratic, hispanic majority
Central Phoenix North/Northwest Phoenix/Glendale & North Phoenix/Paradise Valley is republican and white
All east valley except for Tempe/Guadalupe is republican and Tempe is only lightly democratic due to ASU and hispanic influence on the east end (Chandler-lightly republican, Mesa-heavy R due to Mormons, Scottsdale-moderate to strong republican-old rich & children, middle class party goers, North Scottsdale-heavy R-old and new mega rich, Gilbert=heavy R due to evangelicals etc). 

Hope that helps!