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BRTD
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« Reply #650 on: June 05, 2010, 12:50:06 PM »

So here's NJ. I did it partisan-neutrally as that's how the redistricting is done:




NJ-01 (blue): I made this the Hispanic seat as NJ-13 is lost. Becomes a bit more Hispanic actually. Safe for Sires.
NJ-02 (green): Doesn't change much. Safe for LoBiondo, a tossup if he retires.
NJ-03 (purple): Basically the old NJ-01, not changed much. Safe for Andrews, I'd like him to be primaried but I know in NJ that sort of thing doesn't happen.
NJ-04 (red): Seems I took out some of the more Democratic areas, though unintentionally. Most likely safe for Smith, though I don't understand how he's elected. Even Ocean County doesn't seem like the type of place to elect a pro-life zealot, or anywhere in NJ for that matter.
NJ-05 (yellow): Garret is as bad as Smith, but geographically it's hard to remove him. Still safe for him.
NJ-06 (teal): This one changes greatly. Probably a Republican seat now. I don't know where Pallone lives but he'd be better off running in the new NJ-07. GOP pickup.
NJ-07 (gray): Also changes greatly, losing the tail on the western edge, which is what kept it a Republican seat. Based on what I see about the territory that remains, Lance would probably be unable to win here. Pallone should run here instead. Dem pickup.
NJ-08 (light purple): Mostly the same though it looks like it's only 53% white now. Safe Dem obviously.
NJ-09 (cyan): By gaining northern Bergen county the seat becomes more Republican, but note Republican enough to be lost.
NJ-10 (pink): Still majority black.
NJ-11 (olive): A bit less Republican as parts of more moderate Somerset county are added, but Frelinghuysen or any other Republican should have no problem being reelected.
NJ-12 (grayish blue): Demographically it looks slightly more Dem. Rush Holt should be fine.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #651 on: June 05, 2010, 01:42:15 PM »

It's a geographically and politically coherent map. However, it does draw both Adler (Cherry Hill, now in with Andrews) and Lance (Hunterdon, in with Garrett) out of a job, and Pallone (home town: Long Branch) and Smith (Washington Twp.?) are far from their more party-friendly districts. Smith is deep in the 12th and Pallone is in the 6th. Pallone might still win the 6th, but not easily. One person is going to lose his job anyway with redistricting and the current 6th is indefensible.

Your map has me wondering what would happen if the 10th went north into Paterson instead of west into wealthy Essex County suburbs.
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« Reply #652 on: June 05, 2010, 01:49:43 PM »

Well we all know "moving" isn't that hard. Smith finds some place in Ocean County and Pallone does in Edison or somewhere. Adler probably has to try against Andrews in the primary (wow I'd actually support Andrews there) and Lance is basically toast unless he can primary Garrett. There's no real way to preserve the current 6th and 7th districts though. Pallone has the least to worry about once he gets some shack in Edison or somewhere since that's the current Democratic base of his district. Lance probably has no conceivable way to stay in Congress though. Maybe he'll "move" to Monmouth and hope he can win the primary against a real local Republican.
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Bo
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« Reply #653 on: June 05, 2010, 02:12:16 PM »

I think for NJ, the most likely scenario will be either a Frelighuysen vs. Pascrell fight or a Holt vs. Lance fight. Since the NJ commisison is bipartisan, both parties will need to put one of their incumbents in a relatively neutral district and see them duke it out.
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« Reply #654 on: June 07, 2010, 02:13:07 AM »

I don't know if this has been done before or not...but here is Michigan with three black districts from 14.



I lost the totals, but the dark green, yellow (inspired by NC-08), and gray districts are all just barely over 50% black.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #655 on: June 08, 2010, 12:18:43 PM »

Not really as even those would have to cross each other. The current setup is an obvious attempt to keep a chunk of Republican exurbia out of Brad Miller's district. And NC-12's long stringy shape makes things a bit more difficult. NC Democrats kind of drew themselves into a corner really though I'm sure they'll find a way to preserve all the Democratic-held seats when redistricting comes around. But it's kind of tricky.
Not really.  The map on the upper left is equivalent to the case in North Carolina.  The map on the upper right is the same, but the two districts no longer have point contiguity.  The connecting sections can be made extremely narrow.

The bottom map is a bit more complex with 4 discontiguous sections in the green section.  But they can be connected.  The map in the lower right is topologically the same as the 3 concentric circles.  I think it is similar to making balloon animals.

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Bo
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« Reply #656 on: June 08, 2010, 12:34:40 PM »

I don't know if this has been done before or not...but here is Michigan with three black districts from 14.



I lost the totals, but the dark green, yellow (inspired by NC-08), and gray districts are all just barely over 50% black.

I don't think the DOJ will mandate 3 black majority districts though because MI is less than 20% black. Also, it would be harmful to the Democrats by cramming Democratic voters into a smaller number of districts.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #657 on: June 09, 2010, 11:39:52 AM »

I just noticed they added Partisan data for NC!!!
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enlightened despot
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« Reply #658 on: June 09, 2010, 04:21:03 PM »

I just noticed they added Partisan data for NC!!!
After hearing about the new changes to the app I decided to make a new map for North Carolina. My first goal was to increase the black-majorities in the two black-majority districts. I made additional changes to account for residences of current congress members, while switching a lot of ground in the middle of the state.

Not much changes west of Mel Watt's district, although both Patrick McHenry and Sue Myrick were drawn into a dem-leaning district that both would probably move out from.

Overall, Obama won seven districts, McCain won six and the congressional delegation could be anywhere from 8-5 for the Democrats to 9-4 for the Republicans.





First District (Blue)
Obama margin increases 10 points (62-37 to 67-32) from old first district. Congressman G.K. Butterfield (D) lives in Wilson. This district was 50% Black, 45% White, but changes create a new district that is 52% Black, 39% White and 7% Hispanic.

Second District (Green) (former third district)
McCain margin decreases six points (61-38 to 58-41) from old second district. Congressman Walter Jones (R) lives in Farmville. This district was 78% White and 17% Black, but changes create a new district that is 73% White, 19% Black and 5% Hispanic.

Third District
(Purple) (former seventh district)
McCain margin increases 13 points (52-47 to 59-41) from old seventh district. This district does not contain the residence of any current congressman. This district was 64% White, 23% Black, but changes create a new district that is 74% White, 18% Black and 6% Hispanic.

Forth District (Red)
Obama margin decreases 18 points (62-37 to 53-46) from old fourth district. Congressman Brad Miller (D) lives in Raleigh. This district was 71% White, 21% Black and 5% Hispanic, but changes create a new district 72% White, 13% Black, 8% Hispanic and 5% Asian.

Fifth District (Yellow) (former second district)
Obama margin increases three points (52-47 to 54-46) from old second district. Congressman Mike McIntyre (D) lives in Lumberton, and Congressman Bob Etheridge (D) lives in Lillington. This district was 62% White, 30% Black and 8% Hispanic, but changes create a new district that is 53% White, 30% Black, 9% Hispanic and 5% Native.

Sixth District (Teal)
McCain margin unchanged (63-36) from old sixth. This district does not contain the residence of any current congressman, although Sue Myrick (R) lives nearby in Charlotte. This district was 87% White, 9% Black, but changes create a new district that is 80% White, 10% Black and 7% Hispanic.

Seventh District (Grey) (former eighth district)
Obama margin increases eight points (52-47 to 56-43) from old eighth district. Congressman Larry Kissell (D) lives in Biscoe. This district was 65% White, 27% Black and 7% Hispanic, but changes create a new district that is 57% White, 25% Black and 11% Hispanic.

Eight District (Blue-Purple) (former thirteenth district)
Obama margin decreases eight points (59-40 to 55-44) from old thirteenth district. Congressman David Price (D) lives in Chapel Hill, and Congressman Howard Coble (R) lives in Greensboro.This district was 66% White, 27% Black and 6% Hispanic, but changes create a new district that is 70% White, 19% Black and 7% Hispanic.

Ninth District (Neon Blue)
McCain margin decreases 18 points (55-45 to 54-46 Obama) from old ninth district. Congresswoman Sue Myrick (R) lives in Charlotte, and Congressman Patrick McHenry (R) lives in Gastonia. Myrick (sixth) and McHenry (tenth) live just outside of safe republican districts and I would expect both to do so, making this an open seat.This district was 85% White, 11% Black, but changes create a new district that is 67% White, 19% Black and 9% Hispanic.

Tenth District (Pink)
McCain margin decreases 1 point (63-36 to 62-37) from old tenth district. This district does not contain the residence of any current congressman, although Patrick McHenry (R) lives nearby in Gastonia. This district was 87% White, 9% Black, but changes create a new district that is 81% White, 10% Black and 6% Hispanic.

Eleventh District (Light Green) (former fifth district)
McCain margin is unchanged (61-38) from old fifth district. Congresswoman Virginia Foxx (R) lives in Banner Elk. This district was 90% White, 7% Black, but changes create a new district that is 86% White, 6% Black and 5% Hispanic.

Twelfth District (Sky Blue)
Obama margin increases eight points (71-29 to 75-25) from old twelfth district. Congressman Mel Watt (D) lives in Charlotte. This district was 47% White, 45% Black and 7% Hispanic, but changes create a new district that is 50% Black, 33% White and 12% Hispanic.

Thirteenth District (Peach) (former eleventh district)
McCain margin increases 1 point (52-47 to 52-46) from old eleventh district. Congressman Heath Schuler (D) lives in Bryson City. This district was 91% White, 5% Black, but changes create a new district that is 88% White, 8% Hispanic and 5% Black.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #659 on: June 09, 2010, 10:12:02 PM »

Hooray. NC Republican gerrymander:



Click for big.

NC-01 (blue, G.K. Butterfield - D) - The majority-black district. 52% black, snakes down into Raleigh. 66-34 Obama.
NC-02 (green, Bob Etheridge - D) - Totally screwed over Etheridge by putting the Dem parts of his district in NC-07. 61-39 McCain.
NC-03 (purple, Walter Jones - R) - Still sprawls the length of the Outer Banks. Takes in Wilmington now, but remains a solidly Republican district; 56-43 McCain. I suppose it could potentially be endangered, in an open seat situation and a good Dem year, but how likely is that to happen?
NC-04 (red, David Price - D) - The Durham/Chapel Hill district, no contest here. 65-34 Obama.
NC-05 (yellow, Virginia Foxx - R) - I don't think this changed too terribly much. Just a touch less Republican now, it's 60-39 McCain.
NC-06 (darker teal, Howard Coble - R) - Also mostly unchanged, this suburban Greensboro district remains solidly Republican at 59-40 McCain.
NC-07 (grey, Mike McIntyre - D) - The genius here is Etheridge is screwed out of his seat while one of the most dogged of Blue Dogs gets a safe Dem seat. Basically takes all the Dem territory in the south-central part of the state. 57-42 Obama.
NC-08 (lighter purple, Larry Kissell - D) - Reconfigured to be more favorable to the Republicans. This one flips from Obama to McCain, it's now 52-47 McCain.
NC-09 (light teal, Sue Myrick - R) - Still a suburban Charlotte district, still safe for the Republicans. Partisan balance pretty much unchanged, at 55-44 McCain.
NC-10 (magenta, Patrick McHenry - R) - Goes northeast instead of north/northwest now. 61-38 McCain, the most Republican district in the state.
NC-11 (light green, Heath Shuler - D) - What are you going to do with this thing? Not much. 52-46 McCain.
NC-12 (light purple Y-shape, Mel Watt - D) - What's good for Democrats is good for Republicans. Watt's district nets heavily-Democratic parts of Greensboro, Charlotte, and Winston-Salem. The most Dem district at 74-25 Obama.
NC-13 (pink, Brad Miller - D) - Reconfigured to be more of a swing district than a Dem-leaning one. Takes in suburban Wake County, parts of Raleigh, and some parts of the rural counties to the east. 53-46 Obama.
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« Reply #660 on: June 09, 2010, 11:07:34 PM »

Here's my try at NC:

Since NC will almost certainly be a Dem gerrymander I made all the marginal Dem seats stronger for Obama. I wasn't able to get NC-07 to be an Obama seat, very close now and I'm sure it can be done if I had more time, so that seat likely ends up an Obama one.

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Verily
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« Reply #661 on: June 10, 2010, 12:42:02 AM »

Since Republican was already done (although I think it could be a lot harsher)...

An (even more) Dem NC gerrymander! (Added bonus: new coalition district)



NC-1: 63-37 Obama; 50% black
NC-2: 60-39 Obama
NC-3: 39-60 McCain
NC-4: 63-36 Obama
NC-5: 34-64 McCain
NC-6: 37-62 McCain
NC-7: 60-39 Obama; 48% white, 32% black, 9% Hispanic, 8% Native
NC-8: 54-45 Obama
NC-9: 33-66 McCain
NC-10: 35-64 McCain
NC-11: 47-51 McCain (meh)
NC-12: 68-31 Obama; 42% black, 42% white
NC-13: 59-40 Obama

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Verily
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« Reply #662 on: June 10, 2010, 12:53:42 AM »
« Edited: June 10, 2010, 12:57:12 AM by Verily »

The key, by the way, is unlocking the black voters in Shelby, Gastonia and Statesville to allow NC-12 to drop Greensboro and remain plurality black. From there, everything falls into place (splitting Myrick's district and unlocking the white and Hispanic Democratic vote around Charlotte, e.g.)
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enlightened despot
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« Reply #663 on: June 10, 2010, 12:38:30 PM »
« Edited: June 11, 2010, 11:03:25 AM by enlightened despot »



Republican Gerrymander
I was inspired by Johnny Longtorso's map and suggestion that not much could be done about Heath Shuler. I put him into a strong McCain district, one of nine that the Arizonan would have taken in 2008 with this map.



First District (McCain 57 - Obama 42)
Republican Patrick McHenry (Gaston County) and Democrat Shuler (Swain County) live on opposite ends of this heavily-Republican district.

Second District (McCain 53 - Obama 46)
Republican Virginia Foxx (Avery County) holds the closest of the McCain districts in this map.



Third District (Obama 78 - McCain 22) (52% Black, 30% White, 13% Hispanic)
Democrat Mel Watt (Charlotte) now has a majority-black district (the old district was 47% White, 45% Black and 7% Hispanic).

Fourth District (McCain 60 - Obama 39)
No current incumbents live in this heavily-Republican district containing part of Winston-Salem.

Fifth District (McCain 56-43)
Republican Howard Coble (Greensboro) gains a lot of new territory, but it is just as Republican-friendly, aside from parts on the eastern edge (which allow the eighth to be more Republican)

Sixth District (McCain 55 - Obama 44)
Republican Sue Myrick (Charlotte) fills in four counties split by the third district.



Seventh District (McCain 54 - Obama 45)
Democrat Bob Etheridge (Montgomery County) loses the area around Raleigh as his district shifts more Republican.

Twelfth District (Obama 52 - McCain 47)
Democrat Mike McIntyre (Lumberton) gets the closest Obama district, with his residence barely connected to the rest of the district.



Eighth District (McCain 54 - Obama 44)
Democrat Larry Kissell (Biscoe) lives in the southern edge of this district, where the only bright spot may be that former Republican Representative Robin Hayes doesn't live here.

Ninth District (Obama 64 - McCain 35)
Democrats David Price (Chapel Hill) and Brad Miller (Raleigh) share this district, and the winner of their primary would have a comfortably-Democratic seat.



Tenth District (Obama 66 - McCain 34) (52% Black, 40% White, 6% Hispanic)
Democrat G.K. Butterfield (Wilson) holds the last of the four Obama districts. Republican Walter Jones (Farmville) lives on the edge of this district, but would likely move into the thirteenth district.

Eleventh District (McCain 54 - Obama 45)
No incumbents live in this district (Miller is the closest) that would favor a Republican.

Thirteenth District (McCain 58 - Obama 41)
This district is similar to the current third district and current-representative Jones would be a good fit if he moved slightly toward the coast.

Edit: I went back and saw that a 10th McCain district was possible by trading land between the 12th (got the inland parts south of the 10th district) and 13th (got Wilmington).
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« Reply #664 on: June 10, 2010, 02:46:37 PM »
« Edited: June 10, 2010, 03:42:04 PM by Mideast Assemblyman True Conservative »

I too am working on North Carolina currently, now that they have the partisan data. While working on the 1st district I noted a majority-black precinct in eastern Greene county that actually voted for McCain.
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« Reply #665 on: June 10, 2010, 03:31:53 PM »

I too am working on North Carolina currently, now that they have the partisan data. While voting on the 1st district I noted a majority-black precinct in eastern Greene county that actually voted for McCain.

Maury precinct, 51% black, 42% white, 6% Hispanic, voted for McCain 51-49

Could have some Mississippi type white vote for Obama combined with lower black turnout in that precinct or blacks trending a bit younger.

You also have this

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http://www.doc.state.nc.us/dop/prisons/greene.htm
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officepark
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« Reply #666 on: June 10, 2010, 08:31:19 PM »

OK, here's my take on NC. 9 McCain districts, and only 4 Obama districts. Also district 12 becomes plurality black.



District 1: Obama 64, McCain 36. 50% black.
District 2: Obama 55, McCain 44
District 3: Obama 39, McCain 61
District 4: Obama 73, McCain 27
District 5: Obama 48, McCain 51
District 6: Obama 39, McCain 60
District 7: Obama 44, McCain 56
District 8: Obama 37, McCain 62
District 9: Obama 48, McCain 51
District 10: Obama 42, McCain 57
District 11: Obama 47, McCain 52
District 12: Obama 70, McCain 29. 46% black.
District 13: Obama 44, McCain 55
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« Reply #667 on: June 10, 2010, 10:22:56 PM »

Why has no one tried splitting NC-11 into north and south? You could combine it with NC-10, split it halfways with Asheville split and end up with two Republican districts.
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muon2
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« Reply #668 on: June 11, 2010, 08:33:23 AM »

Here's my try at NC:

Since NC will almost certainly be a Dem gerrymander I made all the marginal Dem seats stronger for Obama. I wasn't able to get NC-07 to be an Obama seat, very close now and I'm sure it can be done if I had more time, so that seat likely ends up an Obama one.


NC will be redrawn by the legislature, and that is looking up in the air at the moment. A new PPP poll puts the two parties at a virtual tie in the Nov elections with D over R by 43 to 42%. Republican are more energized, but the moderates look less favorably on the state GOP.

The underlying difficulty for the Dems is that once CD 1 and 13 are drawn as majority (or near majority) black seats, the remaining map is tilted to the GOP about 53% to 47%. Creating a third coalition seat tilts the remaining map even more.
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muon2
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« Reply #669 on: June 11, 2010, 12:40:48 PM »

Here's my try at NC:

Since NC will almost certainly be a Dem gerrymander I made all the marginal Dem seats stronger for Obama. I wasn't able to get NC-07 to be an Obama seat, very close now and I'm sure it can be done if I had more time, so that seat likely ends up an Obama one.


NC will be redrawn by the legislature, and that is looking up in the air at the moment. A new PPP poll puts the two parties at a virtual tie in the Nov elections with D over R by 43 to 42%. Republican are more energized, but the moderates look less favorably on the state GOP.

The underlying difficulty for the Dems is that once CD 1 and 13 are drawn as majority (or near majority) black seats, the remaining map is tilted to the GOP about 53% to 47%. Creating a third coalition seat tilts the remaining map even more.

Following up on this comment, I've put together a GOP-oriented map. All districts are within 100 of the ideal. There are two majority and one plurality black districts.



CD 1: 52% Black, 67% Obama
CD 2: 60% McCain
CD 3: 59% McCain
CD 4: 63% Obama
CD 5: 59% McCain
CD 6: 56% McCain
CD 7: 40% Black, 65% Obama
CD 8: 57% McCain
CD 9: 56% McCain
CD 10: 59% McCain
CD 11: 55% McCain
CD 12: 52% Black, 67% Obama
CD 13: 49.8% Obama - 49.2% McCain (probably could be flipped if drawn at the block level)
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Torie
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« Reply #670 on: June 11, 2010, 08:23:40 PM »

The erose lines of CD 3 look a bit embarrassing, Muon2. Are you embarrassed?  Smiley
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muon2
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« Reply #671 on: June 11, 2010, 10:45:31 PM »

The erose lines of CD 3 look a bit embarrassing, Muon2. Are you embarrassed?  Smiley

Not at all. Tongue Since NC has section 5 counties, I took the existing CD 1 as a way to meet DOJ review. All I did was extend the same pattern down the coast as I created a crossover/coalition district in CD 7. CD 3 is simply what is left from the created minority districts.

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nclib
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« Reply #672 on: June 12, 2010, 03:22:33 PM »

I too am working on North Carolina currently, now that they have the partisan data. While voting on the 1st district I noted a majority-black precinct in eastern Greene county that actually voted for McCain.

Maury precinct, 51% black, 42% white, 6% Hispanic, voted for McCain 51-49

Could have some Mississippi type white vote for Obama combined with lower black turnout in that precinct or blacks trending a bit younger.

You also have this

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http://www.doc.state.nc.us/dop/prisons/greene.htm

Also, on a county level, Greene County was 41% black and 46% Obama, which was estimated to be the worst non-black Obama support in NC. Not sure why, aside from what you mentioned above. Eastern NC has a lot of places with sizeable black populations, and very conservative whites, but I wouldn't have expected to be Greene to be dead last.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #673 on: June 15, 2010, 01:21:12 AM »

In response to the earlier attempts to make 3 majority black districts in Louisiana I've produced the following:



The yellow, teal, and green districts are all 51% black and I think this map looks somewhat cleaner than the earlier attempts.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #674 on: June 16, 2010, 10:14:55 AM »

So I know that way back when we decided not to post maps just because they showed up on Swing State Project, but I couldn't help but share a map of Alabama with 3 VRA districts out of 7 that someone posted there:

http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/lsSl1VLVi-Q_ITJaERlZDJOTmtJtrZs_GxhPFHyfdaQ?feat=embedwebsite
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