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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #675 on: June 16, 2010, 06:09:48 PM »

I was bored. Hispanic-majority district in Colorado.


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muon2
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« Reply #676 on: June 17, 2010, 12:10:04 AM »

I posted this one earlier this year with the 2008 data. It has a more compact Hispanic-majority district, CD 1, at 50.3%.


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Torie
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« Reply #677 on: June 17, 2010, 01:00:03 PM »

Muon2, what are the pvi's of your Colorado CD 3 and CD 4?  The rest of the districts look pretty lopsided from a partisan standpoint. Well maybe CD 7 is close. What is the pvi of that one?  Thanks.
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BRTD
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« Reply #678 on: June 17, 2010, 01:53:42 PM »

7 is actually most likely a rather Democratic district. muon's map doesn't shift the PVIs around much because CO-01 is already 30% Hispanic, so you're just adding another 20% to the seat. The voters being "displaced" from it then are mostly liberal Denver whites, who are just as Democratic as Hispanics, so putting them into another district doesn't make it much less Democratic even if it is whiter.
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muon2
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« Reply #679 on: June 17, 2010, 11:55:08 PM »

Muon2, what are the pvi's of your Colorado CD 3 and CD 4?  The rest of the districts look pretty lopsided from a partisan standpoint. Well maybe CD 7 is close. What is the pvi of that one?  Thanks.

Other than look at the Hispanic population I drew the map for compactness and county integrity, so I hadn't looked at the partisanship. I don't know the exact PVI's, but I can estimate the two party split using an average of '04 and '08 presidential vote. CD 3 is 23% Hispanic and would be about 53-47 in favor of R. CD 4 and 6 would be about 55-45 R. CD 7 is about 57-43 D. The other districts are all over 60% to one party. That makes a 4-3 split for the GOP the most likely result.

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BRTD
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« Reply #680 on: June 18, 2010, 12:27:38 AM »

John Salazar could hold that third district though. And Markey might have an easier time in that fourth district than the current one.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #681 on: June 19, 2010, 01:15:24 PM »

Not really as even those would have to cross each other. The current setup is an obvious attempt to keep a chunk of Republican exurbia out of Brad Miller's district. And NC-12's long stringy shape makes things a bit more difficult. NC Democrats kind of drew themselves into a corner really though I'm sure they'll find a way to preserve all the Democratic-held seats when redistricting comes around. But it's kind of tricky.
Not really.  The map on the upper left is equivalent to the case in North Carolina.  The map on the upper right is the same, but the two districts no longer have point contiguity.  The connecting sections can be made extremely narrow.

The bottom map is a bit more complex with 4 discontiguous sections in the green section.  But they can be connected.  The map in the lower right is topologically the same as the 3 concentric circles.  I think it is similar to making balloon animals.



Does point contiguity count as contiguity for federal court standards (a) always (including if two or more districts "cross each other" at that point and rely on that point for contiguity) (b) only if no two districts both depend on that point for contiguity and "cross each other" at that point, or (c) never?  I remember reading somewhere that point contiguity didn't count, but I've also read people (perhaps on this forum) write that it does.
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BRTD
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« Reply #682 on: June 19, 2010, 02:04:24 PM »

Well it's used in the current NC map, so it clearly does count.
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Bo
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« Reply #683 on: June 19, 2010, 06:09:58 PM »

I posted this one earlier this year with the 2008 data. It has a more compact Hispanic-majority district, CD 1, at 50.3%.




If they intend to keep CO-01 very heavily Democratic, they might as well make it Latino-majority. Colroado should have one already since its Latino population is near 20% (if I recall correctly). 1/7 is 14%.
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Verily
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« Reply #684 on: June 19, 2010, 09:15:16 PM »

I posted this one earlier this year with the 2008 data. It has a more compact Hispanic-majority district, CD 1, at 50.3%.




If they intend to keep CO-01 very heavily Democratic, they might as well make it Latino-majority. Colroado should have one already since its Latino population is near 20% (if I recall correctly). 1/7 is 14%.

However, Colorado already has a Hispanic congressman, so any argument for a preserved Hispanic district falls down immediately.
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BRTD
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« Reply #685 on: June 19, 2010, 09:38:02 PM »

Colorado isn't a VRA state, so there is no requirement. And even if it was the VRA doesn't require that majority minority districts be specifically drawn, just that heavily minority areas can't be diluted preventing them and that existing ones can't be removed if the population can still support one.
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Bo
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« Reply #686 on: June 19, 2010, 09:46:01 PM »

Colorado isn't a VRA state, so there is no requirement. And even if it was the VRA doesn't require that majority minority districts be specifically drawn, just that heavily minority areas can't be diluted preventing them and that existing ones can't be removed if the population can still support one.

The VRA officially doesn't affect areas outside the South and Arizona, but the Justice Department could make a strong case for a Latino majority district in Colorado since Latinos are 1/5 of their population and Colorado has 7 Congressional seats. And Salazar isn't going to stay in Congress forever, so creating a Latino-majoirty district would guarantee long-term Latino Representation from Colorado.
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« Reply #687 on: June 19, 2010, 11:09:20 PM »

Colorado isn't a VRA state, so there is no requirement. And even if it was the VRA doesn't require that majority minority districts be specifically drawn, just that heavily minority areas can't be diluted preventing them and that existing ones can't be removed if the population can still support one.

The VRA officially doesn't affect areas outside the South and Arizona, but the Justice Department could make a strong case for a Latino majority district in Colorado since Latinos are 1/5 of their population and Colorado has 7 Congressional seats. And Salazar isn't going to stay in Congress forever, so creating a Latino-majoirty district would guarantee long-term Latino Representation from Colorado.

The Justice Department though has no veto power over any Colorado map.

As it is though it woudln't affect much, DeGette would probably keep getting elected. Once she retired though it'd probably be favored to elect a Hispanic Democrat, though not guaranteed.
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muon2
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« Reply #688 on: June 19, 2010, 11:24:18 PM »

Colorado isn't a VRA state, so there is no requirement. And even if it was the VRA doesn't require that majority minority districts be specifically drawn, just that heavily minority areas can't be diluted preventing them and that existing ones can't be removed if the population can still support one.

Section 2 of the VRA does apply to CO as it does to every state. The application is generally governed by the Gingles conditions: a minority group
1) is sufficiently large and geographically compact to constitute a majority in a single-member district,
2) is politically cohesive, and
3) in the absence of special circumstances, bloc voting by the White majority usually defeats the minority’s preferred candidate.

It is likely that the existing Hispanic representative would be used to show the inapplicability of the 3rd condition. That would prevent CO from having to create a Hispanic-majority seat.  However, CO could still choose to create one, to reduce any potential challenge.
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« Reply #689 on: June 20, 2010, 03:09:43 PM »

I wouldn't consider section 1 to apply either. Anyway as I pointed out a Hispanic-majority district might actually benefit the Democrats and DeGette shouldn't have any real difficulty winning the primary in a Hispanic ~50% seat, so it is a possibility.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #690 on: July 09, 2010, 04:58:24 PM »

Here's a fun challenge. The Mississippi State Senate has 52 districts. How many can you make black-majority? I just made 29 black-majority districts using 2000 numbers, but I think if I do it more efficiently I can get a 30th district in there.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #691 on: July 09, 2010, 11:04:27 PM »

Here's a fun challenge. The Mississippi State Senate has 52 districts. How many can you make black-majority? I just made 29 black-majority districts using 2000 numbers, but I think if I do it more efficiently I can get a 30th district in there.

My first attempt (also using 2000 numbers) I only managed 28. I think part of the problem was I did TOO good of a job cracking Rankin County (over half of its population live in black-majority districts). This resulted in a white majority district stretching from northern Rankin county across Madison and Yazoo counties. If I had packed white voters into a district based in Rankin County instead,  I could have used whites in Yazoo county to dilute my northern Vicksburg district. I also didn't stretch districts in Northwestern Mississippi far enough to the east.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #692 on: July 20, 2010, 03:55:47 PM »

A Democratic gerrymander of Georgia! Partially inspired by the 2000-2004 map.



1st (deep blue): Safe GOP. [72% white, 21% black]
2nd (dark green): Safe DEM. [47% white, 46% black]
3rd (purple): Safe GOP. [79% white, 15% black]
4th (red): Safe/Strong lean DEM. [41% black, 41% white, 12% hispanic]
5th (yellow): Safe/strong lean DEM. [46% white, 40% black]
6th (teal): Safe GOP. [79% white]
7th (gray): lean DEM. [44% white, 24% hispanic, 21% black]
8th (bluish one in the middle): Strong lean DEM [55% white, 39% black]
9th (light blue in the north): Safe GOP [88% white]
10th (pink): Safe GOP [79% white, 12% black]
11th (light green): lean DEM. [48% white, 32% black, 16% hispanic]
12th (the eastern bluish one): Strong lean DEM [50% white, 42% black]
13th (peach/salmon): Safe DEM [51% black, 37% white]
14th (brown): Strong lean DEM [49% white, 43% black]

nine out of fourteen districts democratic!
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Bo
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« Reply #693 on: July 20, 2010, 06:40:46 PM »

A Democratic gerrymander of Georgia! Partially inspired by the 2000-2004 map.



1st (deep blue): Safe GOP. [72% white, 21% black]
2nd (dark green): Safe DEM. [47% white, 46% black]
3rd (purple): Safe GOP. [79% white, 15% black]
4th (red): Safe/Strong lean DEM. [41% black, 41% white, 12% hispanic]
5th (yellow): Safe/strong lean DEM. [46% white, 40% black]
6th (teal): Safe GOP. [79% white]
7th (gray): lean DEM. [44% white, 24% hispanic, 21% black]
8th (bluish one in the middle): Strong lean DEM [55% white, 39% black]
9th (light blue in the north): Safe GOP [88% white]
10th (pink): Safe GOP [79% white, 12% black]
11th (light green): lean DEM. [48% white, 32% black, 16% hispanic]
12th (the eastern bluish one): Strong lean DEM [50% white, 42% black]
13th (peach/salmon): Safe DEM [51% black, 37% white]
14th (brown): Strong lean DEM [49% white, 43% black]

nine out of fourteen districts democratic!

Nice map, but it would probably fail the VRA.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #694 on: July 20, 2010, 09:27:07 PM »

I wouldn't be so sure. A black majority district without an incumbent (the 13th), one black plurality district with an incumbent black representative (Johnson in the 4th), and three white plurality districts that would be assuredly represented by black politicians (Bishop in the 2nd, Lewis in the 5th, and Scott in the 14th).
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JoeyJoeJoe
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« Reply #695 on: July 21, 2010, 08:35:50 PM »

Good news everyone!  Dave Leip's atlas now has partisan data for North Carolina (sorry if somebody already posted this)
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Bo
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« Reply #696 on: July 22, 2010, 01:40:08 PM »

Good news everyone!  Dave Leip's atlas now has partisan data for North Carolina (sorry if somebody already posted this)

I knew that for about a month or two now, but thanks for telling us just in case someone didn't know.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #697 on: July 23, 2010, 08:02:21 PM »

Here's Maryland with 3 black-majority districts and 4 McCain districts.



CD-1 (Blue): 52-46 McCain
CD-2 (Green): 64% Black, 87% Obama
CD-3 (Purple): 57-41 McCain
CD-4 (Red): 54% White, 73% Obama
CD-5 (Yellow): 51-47 McCain
CD-6 (Teal): 55% Black, 80% Obama
CD-7 (Gray): 54-44 McCain
CD-8 (Light Purple): Just over 50% Black, 83% Obama

I should probably play around with the border between Districts 6 and 8 to increase District 8's black percentage.

Note: District numbers were selected for good color contrast with the partisan data layer enabled, and are not intended to reflect real life district numbers.
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Bo
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« Reply #698 on: July 23, 2010, 08:39:34 PM »

Here's Maryland with 3 black-majority districts and 4 McCain districts.



CD-1 (Blue): 52-46 McCain
CD-2 (Green): 64% Black, 87% Obama
CD-3 (Purple): 57-41 McCain
CD-4 (Red): 54% White, 73% Obama
CD-5 (Yellow): 51-47 McCain
CD-6 (Teal): 55% Black, 80% Obama
CD-7 (Gray): 54-44 McCain
CD-8 (Light Purple): Just over 50% Black, 83% Obama

I should probably play around with the border between Districts 6 and 8 to increase District 8's black percentage.

Note: District numbers were selected for good color contrast with the partisan data layer enabled, and are not intended to reflect real life district numbers.

I think the Justice Department might block this map because CD-2 crams much more black voters than is necessary.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #699 on: July 23, 2010, 09:27:41 PM »

Here's Maryland with 3 black-majority districts and 4 McCain districts.



CD-1 (Blue): 52-46 McCain
CD-2 (Green): 64% Black, 87% Obama
CD-3 (Purple): 57-41 McCain
CD-4 (Red): 54% White, 73% Obama
CD-5 (Yellow): 51-47 McCain
CD-6 (Teal): 55% Black, 80% Obama
CD-7 (Gray): 54-44 McCain
CD-8 (Light Purple): Just over 50% Black, 83% Obama

I should probably play around with the border between Districts 6 and 8 to increase District 8's black percentage.

Note: District numbers were selected for good color contrast with the partisan data layer enabled, and are not intended to reflect real life district numbers.

I think the Justice Department might block this map because CD-2 crams much more black voters than is necessary.

Yet the plan still manages one more black-majority district than the current map.

Still, I am aware that improvements can be made, and you've inspired me to add to CD-8's black population by taking black voters from CD-2 instead of CD-6. Here is the result:



CD-1 (Blue): Unchanged. See above.
CD-2 (Green): 57% Black, 83% Obama
CD-3 (Purple): 52-47 McCain
CD-4 (Red): Unchanged. See above.
CD-5 (Yellow): 54-44 McCain
CD-6 (Teal): Unchanged. See above.
CD-7 (Gray): Unchanged. See above.
CD-8 (Light Purple): 52% Black, 83% Obama

This plan manages to increase the black population in the least black black-majority district as well as widen McCain's margin in the district he performed worst in of the ones he carried. Overall, I consider this an improvement.

Here's a zoomed in view of the beltway.

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