Dave's Redistricting App

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It seemed to be the common assumption that whoever won the special election for PA-12 would only be serving until 2012, when the district would be cut up.

For IL, unless Quinn somehow manages to win the governorship, I would imagine a Dem and a Rep would get put in together in a "fair fight" situation. I did a map a while back that put Judy Biggert and Dan Lipinski together pretty easily.

[muon2]

I've also played around with Illinois to see who the loser will be. I think Schock and Shimkus end up in the same seat. Also shoring up Halvorson and Foster isn't too hard (especially Foster, just swap that swath of rural counties on the western tail of his district for Rockford.)

CD's 11 and 14 have excess population and will have to shed counties. CD 11 also gets pressed by the need for both Black CDs 1 and 2 to expand south to add the needed population and remain majority Black. CD 14 would be quite strange to link Kane and Winnebago counties, so I'm curious to see how you do it.

Don't forget to consider a second Hispanic seat for IL. Most projections show that it will be required to satisfy the VRA. If so, that splits the current CD 4 into natural north and south parts, and cuts big pieces out of CDs 3 and 5 to complete those Hispanic districts.

[Verily]

Here's a zoom-in of Chicago on the Illinois gerrymander I did a while ago. 1, 4, and 5 are majority black (with plenty to spare; 1 is only 50% black, but 4 is 60% and 5 is 54%), and 2 and 3 are majority Hispanic (heavily so, 64% and 57%). Lipinski is the one who gets screwed, and surely the Illinois Democrats would rather he be screwed than any other Democrat in the delegation.

(Overall, this is huge Democratic gerrymander likely to have 14-16 Democrats and 3-5 Republicans, which is something along the lines of what I would expect the IL Democrats to draw.)

[Verily]

For completeness on the above, northern and southern Illinois.

[muon2]

Here's a zoom-in of Chicago on the Illinois gerrymander I did a while ago. 1, 4, and 5 are majority black (with plenty to spare; 1 is only 50% black, but 4 is 60% and 5 is 54%), and 2 and 3 are majority Hispanic (heavily so, 64% and 57%). Lipinski is the one who gets screwed, and surely the Illinois Democrats would rather he be screwed than any other Democrat in the delegation.

(Overall, this is huge Democratic gerrymander likely to have 14-16 Democrats and 3-5 Republicans, which is something along the lines of what I would expect the IL Democrats to draw.)

The minority districts may not be as strong as you think. The courts will use voting age population instead of total population to determine the 50% threshold. To get to 50% VAP for a Hispanic population may require a total population of at least 58 tom 60%. Black districts also need a couple of percent margin in the total population to clear 50% VAP.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Here's my Illinois map then:

[Devilman88]

Here is a Republican Map of NC with 13 CDs:



NC-1: G.K. Butterfield(D): Bl: 50% Wh: 40% Hisp: 7%/ Obama: 68% McCain: 31% ( Dem)

NC-2: Bob Etheridge(D): Wh: 67% Bl: 20% Hisp: 10%/ McCain: 54% Obama: 45% (Lean Rep)

NC-3: Walter B Jones, Jr(R): Wh: 72% Bl: 20%/ McCain: 57% Obama: 33% ( Rep)

NC-4: David Price(D): Wh: 61% Bl: 23% Hisp: 9%/ Obama: 66% McCain: 33% (Dem)

NC-5: Virginia Foxx(R): Wh: 86% Bl: 6% Hisp: 6%/ McCain: 56% Obama: 42% (Rep)

NC-6: Howard Coble(R): Wh: 75% Bl: 17% Hisp: 5%/ McCain: 53% Obama: 46% (Lean Rep)

NC-7: Mike McIntyre(D): Wh: 61% Bl: 24% Nat: 8% Hisp: 6%/ McCain: 50% Obama: 40% (Toss-up)

NC-8: Larry Kissell(D): Wh: 68% Bl: 20% Hisp: 7%/ McCain: 56% Obama: 43% (Rep)

NC-9: Sue Myrick(R): Wh: 75% Bl: 13% Hisp: 8%/ McCain: 57% Obama: 42% (Rep)

NC-10: Patrick McHenry(R): Wh: 78% Bl: 12% Hisp: 7%/ McCain: 58% Obama: 41% (Rep)

NC-11: Heath Shuler(D): Wh: 86% Bl: 7% Hisp: 4%/ McCain 58% Obama: 41% (Rep)

NC-12: Mel Watt(D): Bl: 41% Wh: 40% Hisp: 14%/ Obama: 71% MCCain: 29% (Dem)

NC-13: Brad Miller(D): Wh: 65% Bl: 22% Hisp: 9%/ Obama: 52% McCain: 47% (Toss-up)

[Bo]

Here is a Republican Map of NC with 13 CDs:



NC-1: G.K. Butterfield(D): Bl: 50% Wh: 40% Hisp: 7%/ Obama: 68% McCain: 31% ( Dem)

NC-2: Bob Etheridge(D): Wh: 67% Bl: 20% Hisp: 10%/ McCain: 54% Obama: 45% (Lean Rep)

NC-3: Walter B Jones, Jr(R): Wh: 72% Bl: 20%/ McCain: 57% Obama: 33% ( Rep)

NC-4: David Price(D): Wh: 61% Bl: 23% Hisp: 9%/ Obama: 66% McCain: 33% (Dem)

NC-5: Virginia Foxx(R): Wh: 86% Bl: 6% Hisp: 6%/ McCain: 56% Obama: 42% (Rep)

NC-6: Howard Coble(R): Wh: 75% Bl: 17% Hisp: 5%/ McCain: 53% Obama: 46% (Lean Rep)

NC-7: Mike McIntyre(D): Wh: 61% Bl: 24% Nat: 8% Hisp: 6%/ McCain: 50% Obama: 40% (Toss-up)

NC-8: Larry Kissell(D): Wh: 68% Bl: 20% Hisp: 7%/ McCain: 56% Obama: 43% (Rep)

NC-9: Sue Myrick(R): Wh: 75% Bl: 13% Hisp: 8%/ McCain: 57% Obama: 42% (Rep)

NC-10: Patrick McHenry(R): Wh: 78% Bl: 12% Hisp: 7%/ McCain: 58% Obama: 41% (Rep)

NC-11: Heath Shuler(D): Wh: 86% Bl: 7% Hisp: 4%/ McCain 58% Obama: 41% (Rep)

NC-12: Mel Watt(D): Bl: 41% Wh: 40% Hisp: 14%/ Obama: 71% MCCain: 29% (Dem)

NC-13: Brad Miller(D): Wh: 65% Bl: 22% Hisp: 9%/ Obama: 52% McCain: 47% (Toss-up)

If you really wanted to, you could probably make Watt's district majority black and then cram even more Democrats in there.

[Dgov]

For a rep NC, try swinging the 4th all the way West to Forysth County and Winston-Salem, giving the Black part of Raleigh to the 1st, Drawing the rest of the Democratic part of Raliegh into the 2nd, and swinging that one down to take the Democratic parts of the 7th and 8th.  Then swing the 12th west to take the Democratic parts of Asheboro.  I think you can get a pretty solid 9-4 Gerrymander that way

[Verily]

Here's a zoom-in of Chicago on the Illinois gerrymander I did a while ago. 1, 4, and 5 are majority black (with plenty to spare; 1 is only 50% black, but 4 is 60% and 5 is 54%), and 2 and 3 are majority Hispanic (heavily so, 64% and 57%). Lipinski is the one who gets screwed, and surely the Illinois Democrats would rather he be screwed than any other Democrat in the delegation.

(Overall, this is huge Democratic gerrymander likely to have 14-16 Democrats and 3-5 Republicans, which is something along the lines of what I would expect the IL Democrats to draw.)

The minority districts may not be as strong as you think. The courts will use voting age population instead of total population to determine the 50% threshold. To get to 50% VAP for a Hispanic population may require a total population of at least 58 tom 60%. Black districts also need a couple of percent margin in the total population to clear 50% VAP.

I redid the map to make all three black districts 53-54% black; none of the other districts were changed at all. IL-03 maybe could become more Hispanic by trading areas with districts 6 and 7; I did not check. Either way, the partisan balance should be unaffected by the necessary adjustments.

[muon2]

For a rep NC, try swinging the 4th all the way West to Forysth County and Winston-Salem, giving the Black part of Raleigh to the 1st, Drawing the rest of the Democratic part of Raliegh into the 2nd, and swinging that one down to take the Democratic parts of the 7th and 8th.  Then swing the 12th west to take the Democratic parts of Asheboro.  I think you can get a pretty solid 9-4 Gerrymander that way

Here's my 9-4 GOP version. CDs 1 and 12 are majority Black with 54% and 52%. CD 7 is plurality (41%) Black and CD 4 is the other D district. All other districts would have voted at least 56% for McCain.

[Devilman88]

For a rep NC, try swinging the 4th all the way West to Forysth County and Winston-Salem, giving the Black part of Raleigh to the 1st, Drawing the rest of the Democratic part of Raliegh into the 2nd, and swinging that one down to take the Democratic parts of the 7th and 8th.  Then swing the 12th west to take the Democratic parts of Asheboro.  I think you can get a pretty solid 9-4 Gerrymander that way

Here's my 9-4 GOP version. CDs 1 and 12 are majority Black with 54% and 52%. CD 7 is plurality (41%) Black and CD 4 is the other D district. All other districts would have voted at least 56% for McCain.

You put Coble in NC-5 with Foxx, I believe.

[muon2]

For a rep NC, try swinging the 4th all the way West to Forysth County and Winston-Salem, giving the Black part of Raleigh to the 1st, Drawing the rest of the Democratic part of Raliegh into the 2nd, and swinging that one down to take the Democratic parts of the 7th and 8th.  Then swing the 12th west to take the Democratic parts of Asheboro.  I think you can get a pretty solid 9-4 Gerrymander that way

Here's my 9-4 GOP version. CDs 1 and 12 are majority Black with 54% and 52%. CD 7 is plurality (41%) Black and CD 4 is the other D district. All other districts would have voted at least 56% for McCain.

You put Coble in NC-5 with Foxx, I believe.

I didn't consider the residences of the incumbents, only the partisan leaning of the districts. It wouldn't be hard to move, and technically most experts don't think district residency can be used as a requirement anyway.

[Devilman88]

For a rep NC, try swinging the 4th all the way West to Forysth County and Winston-Salem, giving the Black part of Raleigh to the 1st, Drawing the rest of the Democratic part of Raliegh into the 2nd, and swinging that one down to take the Democratic parts of the 7th and 8th.  Then swing the 12th west to take the Democratic parts of Asheboro.  I think you can get a pretty solid 9-4 Gerrymander that way

Here's my 9-4 GOP version. CDs 1 and 12 are majority Black with 54% and 52%. CD 7 is plurality (41%) Black and CD 4 is the other D district. All other districts would have voted at least 56% for McCain.

You put Coble in NC-5 with Foxx, I believe.

I didn't consider the residences of the incumbents, only the partisan leaning of the districts. It wouldn't be hard to move, and technically most experts don't think district residency can be used as a requirement anyway.

Ah i see, I keep them in their own districts, but I guess I'm doing it wrong.

[muon2]

Just to be even-handed, here's my version of NC for the Dems. All districts are within 100 of the ideal population and CDs 1 and 12 are just over 50% Black. Only CDs 3, 5, 8 and 10 voted for McCain, so based on the 2008 vote it's a 9-4 Dem map. I would note that CD 11 is only a 49% plurality for Obama, and CD's 7 and 9 are a competitive 51% for Obama. The concentration in the VRA districts makes larger D percentages difficult - especially at the coarse precinct level.

[Verily]

For a rep NC, try swinging the 4th all the way West to Forysth County and Winston-Salem, giving the Black part of Raleigh to the 1st, Drawing the rest of the Democratic part of Raliegh into the 2nd, and swinging that one down to take the Democratic parts of the 7th and 8th.  Then swing the 12th west to take the Democratic parts of Asheboro.  I think you can get a pretty solid 9-4 Gerrymander that way

Here's my 9-4 GOP version. CDs 1 and 12 are majority Black with 54% and 52%. CD 7 is plurality (41%) Black and CD 4 is the other D district. All other districts would have voted at least 56% for McCain.

You put Coble in NC-5 with Foxx, I believe.

Foxx is actually in the NC-10 part of Avery County on his map, I think.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Some of these maps are awful! (gerrymandered)

[muon2]

Some of these maps are awful! (gerrymandered)

I think that's the point. In most states, gerrymandering is legal to achieve political ends. Many of the maps posted explore the extremes that might be taken within some constraints. My two NC maps above are examples of the extremes each party could take the process to maximize their seats.

If it makes you feel better, here's a version of NC I did last year that used redistricting principles of compactness and county integrity with the constraint of two black-majority districts. It's much prettier, but it's unlikely given the political process for drawing districts in NC.

[Dgov]

Here's an Interesting Challenge for some people on this site.  See how Many Hispanic-Majority, Republican-leaning Districts you can draw in Texas.  Districts have to be at least 55% Hispanic and 55% McCain 2008.

So far I've been able to get 3 relatively decent (i.e. no ugly Gerrymandering) ones, in West Texas (Laredo/Odessa), Corpus Christi/South Texas, and Houston Areas.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, since I uploaded those few maps I'm gonna post them there :

Maine - 3 CDs


Massachusetts - 15 CDs (click for higher resolution)


Rhode Island - 3 CDs

[Padfoot]

Just out of curiosity, what states do we have partisan data for now?  I know we have New York and Texas if you use the "test data" option and we also have Maryland and North Carolina.  Are there any others?

[Verily]

Just out of curiosity, what states do we have partisan data for now?  I know we have New York and Texas if you use the "test data" option and we also have Maryland and North Carolina.  Are there any others?

California got partisan data at the same time as Texas. It also needs "test data" selected.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

From what I've heard on SSP, they're waiting for the release of official 2010 census figures to start rolling out more states with partisan data.

[muon2]

From what I've heard on SSP, they're waiting for the release of official 2010 census figures to start rolling out more states with partisan data.

I assume they will replace the shapefiles with 2010 boundaries and precincts. In IL it's hard to match political data with precincts that were changed after 2000. The demographic data will have to be resummed for the precincts, instead of using the official block group data.

[Sbane]

I know you made some changes to the Socal map, but did you make any changes to the Norcal map? My biggest concern here is that both Mcnerney and his challenger David Harmer don't live in CD-11 as drawn above. Any CD-11 that is drawn will have to include east bay suburbs. Either it's going to be Pleasanton (Mcnerney) or San Ramon (Harmer) depending on who wins in the fall.