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Author Topic: Dave's Redistricting App  (Read 128767 times)
12th Doctor
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« Reply #75 on: June 13, 2009, 09:12:07 pm »
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I have built this thing up so much, I fell like I can't match expectations.  HA  But I finally got it to work. 






I would do close ups for you guys, but I don't really think I need them.  Really, all I did with this map is try to make it so that it respected municipal, county, and some natural boundaries as much as possible, without it violating socioeconomic common sense, to much.

I didn't actually try to gerrymander, but for one exception...

I did everything I could to dispose of Murthaland, and its glorious leader with it.  While my 5th district looks ugly, its not nearly as ugly as Murtha's current districts and it makes for a much more clear cut Southwest, on the whole.  Murtha could never win this district, as, not only does it lean Republican, but it strips him of the majority of his base.

Beyond that, things get a little ugly near Reading, with what I call the "Reading Wrap Around" but the population in the "Wrap Around" area is surprisingly light, and it serves the function of putting that entire belt (Allentown, Reading, Bethlehem) under one roof.  I was amazed with how well the Southeast came out in general.

My estimate, is that this map contains 7 safe or near-safe Republican districts, 7 safe or near-safe Democrat districts, with the remaining 4 as possible pickups in a 50-50... and all without even trying.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2009, 09:23:13 pm by Supersoulty »Logged

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« Reply #76 on: June 13, 2009, 10:33:29 pm »
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OK I uploaded the file for my Bachmann-free map here. Anyone else able to convert it into a JPEG? Not sure how.

http://www.sendspace.com/file/xurq37
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #77 on: June 13, 2009, 10:54:35 pm »
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OK I uploaded the file for my Bachmann-free map here. Anyone else able to convert it into a JPEG? Not sure how.

http://www.sendspace.com/file/xurq37

I think it is wrong and childish of you to target any one elected official, in particular, for elimination.
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« Reply #78 on: June 13, 2009, 11:05:36 pm »
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OK I uploaded the file for my Bachmann-free map here. Anyone else able to convert it into a JPEG? Not sure how.

http://www.sendspace.com/file/xurq37

I think it is wrong and childish of you to target any one elected official, in particular, for elimination.

You did the same thing to Murtha.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #79 on: June 13, 2009, 11:07:01 pm »
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On a more serious note, though, looking at my map makes me kinda sad to realize how depopulated the old industrial Central part of the state has become.  Even when I was little, which is to say before the 1990 census, we had four representatives covering that area.  Now, its down to two.  Similarly, the Northwest once had two reps, and now they can barely support one.
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« Reply #80 on: June 13, 2009, 11:08:50 pm »
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OK I uploaded the file for my Bachmann-free map here. Anyone else able to convert it into a JPEG? Not sure how.

http://www.sendspace.com/file/xurq37

I think it is wrong and childish of you to target any one elected official, in particular, for elimination.

If a district is lost someone has to go, why not make it my least favorite person in the delegation, not to mention also the most likely target of the legislature as well? And as noted you did the same for Murtha.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #81 on: June 13, 2009, 11:10:05 pm »
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OK I uploaded the file for my Bachmann-free map here. Anyone else able to convert it into a JPEG? Not sure how.

http://www.sendspace.com/file/xurq37

I think it is wrong and childish of you to target any one elected official, in particular, for elimination.

You did the same thing to Murtha.

I was being quite facetious, I assure you.
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« Reply #82 on: June 13, 2009, 11:25:54 pm »
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Arizona with 8 districts.  Maybe if Arizona had an independent redistricting commission they could get something like this rather than the mess that they have.

The Tucson district (purple) includes the city proper and densely populated areas nearby.  Marana, Oro Valley, and Green Valley are in the Southern Arizona (red).



I tried to follow city boundaries as much as I could, though Phoenix gets chopped up.   I couldn't quite get all of Mesa in the green district.  The yellow district should be Tempe, Chandler, and southern Phoenix.  The grey district should be Glendale, Peoria, and points west, plus parts of western Phoenix south of Glendale.  The purple district is Scottsdale and northern Phoenix, with the aqua district the central part of Phoenix.





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« Reply #83 on: June 14, 2009, 12:11:58 am »
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Arizona with 8 districts.  Maybe if Arizona had an independent redistricting commission they could get something like this rather than the mess that they have.

Part of the problem is Arizona's policy on Native Americans with regards to redistricting.  I doubt even an independent commission would put the Hopi and Navajo tribes in the same district as you've done.
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« Reply #84 on: June 14, 2009, 12:17:33 am »

Arizona with 8 districts.  Maybe if Arizona had an independent redistricting commission they could get something like this rather than the mess that they have.

Part of the problem is Arizona's policy on Native Americans with regards to redistricting.  I doubt even an independent commission would put the Hopi and Navajo tribes in the same district as you've done.

I've talked with one of the experts who worked on the 2000 remap. Padfoot is quite correct in his assessment of the issue.
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« Reply #85 on: June 14, 2009, 02:33:41 am »
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Arizona does use an independent commission actually.
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« Reply #86 on: June 14, 2009, 03:24:02 am »
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Here's some shots of my Arizona map





CD1 (Blue) is 23% Native American and 22% Hispanic
CD3 (Purple) is 46% White and 42% Hispanic
CD4 (Red) is 65% Hispanic and CD7 (Gray) is 57% Hispanic

The two new districts are CD3 and CD9, which should split between the parties. Shadegg would have his best shot in CD10.
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« Reply #87 on: June 14, 2009, 06:45:54 am »
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I challenge people to do maps, for fun, with Canadian (100,000) or French (125,000)-sized constituencies.
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« Reply #88 on: June 14, 2009, 09:57:32 am »
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Arizona does use an independent commission actually.

I read his comment as a joke...
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« Reply #89 on: June 14, 2009, 02:07:49 pm »
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How different would a redistricted Virginia look compared to what it is now?

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« Reply #90 on: June 14, 2009, 03:55:29 pm »
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How different would a redistricted Virginia look compared to what it is now?



I'm hoping he adds Virginia eventually, because I'd like to take a stab at it. The exploding population in NoVa will probably make the 8th, 10th, and 11th districts shrink. I expect there will end up being a bipartisan incumbent protection map.
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« Reply #91 on: June 14, 2009, 06:15:43 pm »
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I think they have the population now to have 3 districts bounded by and including Loudoun and Prince William counties. The 10th should be completely suburban in the next round of redistricting, and the 9th will have to expand ever outward to gobble up population.

Something's got to give with districts like the 6th, 7th, and 1st being pulled into northern Virginia. It would be ridiculous to have Richmond suburbs and Williamsburg sharing districts with exurban NoVa, but that's where we're heading.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #92 on: June 14, 2009, 07:18:33 pm »
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How different would a redistricted Virginia look compared to what it is now?



I'm hoping he adds Virginia eventually, because I'd like to take a stab at it. The exploding population in NoVa will probably make the 8th, 10th, and 11th districts shrink. I expect there will end up being a bipartisan incumbent protection map.

You would be surprised.  I have started maps from each separate corner of PA, and one started from the middle, and each one looks somewhat different.

The one started from the middle, especially looked so different from the map I posted that I kinda wondered if it was how they made the current map.  HA  The reason I say that is because I usually had to do funny things with the districts that I would never consider, just to make it work.
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« Reply #93 on: June 14, 2009, 08:48:37 pm »
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Indiana must practically draw itself.  Our maps are quite similar except for the colors.  I wanted to avoid using the gray color for the Indianapolis district since it is hard to see when there are a lot of city boundaries.

A 3-2-2 paln with 2 for Indianapolis is pretty natural.  You probably could not draw a reasonable district that linked Gary and South Bend or South Bend and Fort Wayne; though you might be able to do Fort Wayne and Elkhart.

And a cross-state district north or south of Indianapolis is going to be be pretty ugly and skinny.

It might be harder to draw an 8-district plan.  Perhaps 3 districts centered on Indianapolis but exteding out further, and the corner districts edging extending along the Ohio and Illinois borders.

I think the main difference in our plans is that I drew the Gary district to include Michigan City, splitting LaPorte Couty, rather than going south.  This put all of Kosciusko Countyin the South Bend district.

Did you use the 2000 population or the estimates?




Here's a redo of Indiana.  I'm not really sure why their districts were so funky looking in the first place.


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« Reply #94 on: June 15, 2009, 07:39:06 am »
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Ohio with 16 districts:



CD-01 (dark blue) - shored-up Democratic Cincinatti district.
CD-02 (dark green) - Cincinatti suburbs, safe Republican.
CD-03 (dark purple) - Dayton-based district that would be a 50-50 swing district.
CD-04 (dark red) - safe Republican rural district.
CD-05 (grey) - another safe Republican rural district.
CD-06 (light purple) - Dem-leaning Toledo-based district.
CD-07 (very light purple) - Dem-leaning surburban Cleveland-area district.
CD-08 (yellow-green) - west half of Cleveland, basically. Democratic district.
CD-09 (magenta) - VRA coalition district; couldn't get it to 51% black, it's about 49% black.
CD-10 (orange) - yet another Dem-leaning NE corner district.
CD-11 (pink) - Canton/Akron district. Maybe has a slight Dem lean.
CD-12 (brown) - Youngstown and Appalachia. Swing district, although Youngstown would probably give it an edge for the Dems.
CD-13 (light green) - Republican-leaning SE Ohio district.
CD-14 (forest green) - Columbus suburbs. Republican district.
CD-15 (yellow) - Columbus-based Dem district.
CD-16 (light blue) - north-central Ohio, rural Republican district.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #95 on: June 15, 2009, 08:02:50 am »
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As to who would go where:

CD-01 - Driehaus.
CD-02 - Schmidt.
CD-03 - I think a non-incumbent Dem would be elected here.
CD-04 - Turner.
CD-05 - Boehner.
CD-06 - Kaptur.
CD-07 - Sutton.
CD-08 - Kucinich.
CD-09 - Fudge.
CD-10 - LaTourette.
CD-11 - Boccieri.
CD-12 - Ryan. Wilson might challenge him here, but I doubt he could win.
CD-13 - Austria and Space would fight it out. Don't know who would come out on top.
CD-14 - Tiberi.
CD-15 - Kilroy.
CD-16 - Jordan and Latta fight for the nomination.
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« Reply #96 on: June 15, 2009, 10:32:52 am »
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There's a quite good redistricting of Louisiana with 6 districts in this comment. The mark of Zorro returns, tidied up and ready for review.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showComment.do?commentId=76095
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« Reply #97 on: June 15, 2009, 03:27:06 pm »
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In this map, Pitts and Platts are in the same district.

As for the rest... the rest of the incumbents stay in place. Shuster gets a weird district, the 6th looks more normal, the 13th is more compact, the City of Chester goes to the 7th..

any thoughts?
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« Reply #98 on: June 15, 2009, 03:59:42 pm »
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Great job, but why not put Platts and all of York County in Shuster's district and keep Lancaster County intact? Do the populations pencil out? Having Shuster represent northern Lancaster seems weird, even though I can see exactly how you were backed into the corner by trying to keep Holden's district as-is and rational.

I started PA yesterday and didn't get very far... your map tempts me to try again without a 5th district, having the 10th and the 3rd meet somewhere in the middle of the state and with Centre County all in Shuster's district.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #99 on: June 15, 2009, 04:28:58 pm »
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In this map, Pitts and Platts are in the same district.

As for the rest... the rest of the incumbents stay in place. Shuster gets a weird district, the 6th looks more normal, the 13th is more compact, the City of Chester goes to the 7th..

any thoughts?

Last night, I unintentionally created a map that was maximally favorable to the Republicans, essentially by starting in the middle and working my way out.

By contrast, this map would likely produce the most favorable possible outcome for the Democrats.  I am curious, did you start out intending for that? 
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