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phk
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« Reply #775 on: August 17, 2010, 11:43:29 am »
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Nice maps sbane. Too bad if the redistricting initiative passes (I can't imagine that it will not), it all will be totally illegal. Tongue  Plus, even if it does not pass, Governor Whitman would veto it. Smiley

Hmm, I don't see what's so wrong with my gerrymandering at all, besides not being visually pleasing enough for Xahar. I mean a district that includes both Long Beach and Compton makes a lot of sense doesn't it? Of course it also contains Seal Beach and Cypress. Tongue Or the district that joins Sunny hills in Fullerton to Huntington park. There's a lot of epic gerrymandering in there. I'm particularly fond of the central valley districts. I didn't know 3 Hispanic districts could be created there.

3 Hispanics won't be elected though in the central valley. The most Hispanic county in California, Tulare, votes GOP like clockwork.

I find it interesting that the three most Hispanic districts in the Central Valley are represented by members of Portuguese descent - Cardoza, Costa, and Nunes. Do their names help them? What percentage would it take to elect an Hispanic in that region?

Hmm, should have done a little research before I assumed they were hispanic. I am fairly sure their names help them rather than hurt them. I wouldn't be surprised if a large portion of the electorate think they are hispanic.

They look like Whites.

They look Hispanic to me...Nunes especially.

By the Hispanic standards of the Central Valley, most of whom have significant Native American ancestry, all 3 of them would be perceived as White.

Than again they would perceive the Cubans and Puerto Ricans of Miami to be White as well.
« Last Edit: August 17, 2010, 11:47:18 am by phknrocket1k »Logged

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« Reply #776 on: August 17, 2010, 11:55:38 am »
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Generally, people of European descent who did not make a detour through Latin America on their way to the U.S. are not considered Hispanic or Latino.
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« Reply #777 on: August 17, 2010, 11:58:45 am »
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Generally, people of European descent who did not make a detour through Latin America on their way to the U.S. are not considered Hispanic or Latino.

True.
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« Reply #778 on: August 17, 2010, 03:27:43 pm »

Nice maps sbane. Too bad if the redistricting initiative passes (I can't imagine that it will not), it all will be totally illegal. Tongue  Plus, even if it does not pass, Governor Whitman would veto it. Smiley

Hmm, I don't see what's so wrong with my gerrymandering at all, besides not being visually pleasing enough for Xahar. I mean a district that includes both Long Beach and Compton makes a lot of sense doesn't it? Of course it also contains Seal Beach and Cypress. Tongue Or the district that joins Sunny hills in Fullerton to Huntington park. There's a lot of epic gerrymandering in there. I'm particularly fond of the central valley districts. I didn't know 3 Hispanic districts could be created there.

3 Hispanics won't be elected though in the central valley. The most Hispanic county in California, Tulare, votes GOP like clockwork.

Here's my version to maximize the Hispanic population for the three Central Valley districts. CDs 18 and 20 are 62% Hispanic and CD 21 is 64% Hispanic (as is CD 17 from Salinas to San Jose). I've tried to preserve county lines and keep municipalities intact where possible, but the minority districts were given priority. This would be consistent with the proposed Prop 20 for CA redistricting.

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« Reply #779 on: August 17, 2010, 04:11:24 pm »
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Generally, people of European descent who did not make a detour through Latin America on their way to the U.S. are not considered Hispanic or Latino.

Oh of course. But someone who just looks at their name and their pictures (especially Nunes) might assume they are Hispanic.
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« Reply #780 on: August 17, 2010, 10:47:47 pm »

To follow up and extend from my LA and Central Valley maps, here's my redo of CA. I used the proposed Prop 20 as a guideline, though it's incomplete since I don't have community of interest data. If it passes here is the list of priorities for a map: 1) population equality; 2) VRA; 3) contiguous districts; 4) respect county and municipal boundaries (and communities of interest); 5) compact districts. Numbering generally reflects the core of the old district without regard to incumbent residence.



Here's the demographic details, with populations over 20% noted. There are 24 with a white majority, 8 with white plurality, 18 hispanic majority, 2 asian majority, and 1 black majority.

CD01 (royal blue, Redding): 76% white
CD02 (forest green, Chico): 62% white, 23% hispanic
CD03 (purple, Citrus Heights): 65% white
CD04 (red, Roseville) : 80% white
CD05 (yellow, Sacramento) : 39% white, 25% hispanic
CD06 (teal, Santa Rosa) : 71% white
CD07 (grey, Vallejo) : 38% white, 27% hispanic
CD08 (lavender, San Francisco) : 46% white, 29% asian
CD09 (baby blue, Oakland) : 34% white, 21% black, 21% asian, 20% hispanic
CD10 (magenta, Concord) : 58% white, 21% hispanic
CD11 (lime, Stockton) : 51% white, 29% hispanic
CD12 (periwinkle, San Mateo) : 45% white, 32% asian
CD13 (flesh, Hayward) : 43% white, 25% asian, 23% hispanic
CD14 (olive, Santa Cruz) : 57% white, 23% hispanic
CD15 (orange, Milpitas) : 52% asian, 26% white
CD16 (kelly green, San Jose) : 55% white, 20% hispanic
CD17 (midnight blue, Salinas) : 64% hispanic, 22% white
CD18 (lemon, Merced) : 62% hispanic, 25% white
CD19 (moss green, Modesto-Fresno) : 60% white, 25% hispanic
CD20 (pink, Fresno) : 62% hispanic, 23% white
CD21 (brick red, Visalia-Bakersfield) : 64% hispanic, 27% white
CD22 (brown, Lancaster-Victorville) : 59% white, 27% hispanic
CD23 (pale blue, Oxnard) : 53% hispanic, 37% white
CD24 (deep purple, Bakersfield) : 67% white, 23% hispanic
CD25 (mauve, Santa Clarita) : 57% white, 25% hispanic
CD26 (charcoal, Hesperia) : 58% white, 26% hispanic
CD27 (sea green, LA Northridge) : 53% white, 29% hispanic
CD28 (lilac, LA Van Nuys) : 65% hispanic, 22% white
CD29 (pale olive, LA Hollywood) 60% white
CD30 (peach, Thousand Oaks) : 70% white
CD31 (pale yellow, LA El Sereno) : 64% hispanic
CD32 (tangerine, El Monte) 66% hispanic
CD33 (blue, LA Central) 72% hispanic
CD34 (green, Downey) 71% hispanic
CD35 (violet, LA South LA) 52% black, 41% hispanic
CD36 (orange, Torrance) 42% white, 31% hispanic
CD37 (cornflower, Long Beach) 65% hispanic
CD38 (slate green, Alhambra) : 50% Asian, 28% hispanic
CD39 (beige, Norwalk) 72% hispanic, 20% white
CD40 (rust, Fullerton) 48% white, 21% asian, 27% hispanic
CD41 (light grey, Escondido) 59% white, 30% hispanic
CD42 (bright green, Ontario) 61% hispanic, 23% white
CD43 (hot pink, San Berardino) 60% hispanic, 21% white
CD44 (maroon, Riverside) 56% hispanic, 29% white
CD45 (cyan, Indio) 60% hispanic, 32% white
CD46 (orange, Huntington Beach) 55% white, 21% asian
CD47 (pale lilac, Santa Ana) 71% hispanic
CD48 (light orange, Irvine) 58% white, 22% hispanic
CD49 (dusty rose, San Clemente) 63% white, 23% hispanic
CD50 (sky blue, Oceanside) 57% white, 26% hispanic
CD51 (brown, Chula Vista) 58% hispanic
CD52 (army green, El Cajon) 66% white
CD53 (pale grey, San Diego) 63% white
« Last Edit: September 07, 2010, 04:41:14 pm by muon2 »Logged


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« Reply #781 on: August 18, 2010, 01:15:04 am »
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How many hispanic districts does the VRA require in California?
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« Reply #782 on: August 18, 2010, 01:28:49 am »
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How many hispanic districts does the VRA require in California?

We only have about 10 I think.  Though from pure percentages we should have around 15-18, mostly because they're either highly concentrated in Los Angeles County (were we have a couple that are over 70% Hispanic), or scattered across the rest of the state in too small of a concentration to actually form a Hispanic-majority district.
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« Reply #783 on: August 18, 2010, 01:29:51 am »
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Generally, people of European descent who did not make a detour through Latin America on their way to the U.S. are not considered Hispanic or Latino.

Well Ken Salazar was often spoken of as one of only two Hispanic Senators. I agree it is silly to consider him one though. Back when Patricia Madrid was running in New Mexico I also frequently heard her referred to as Hispanic though she is one of those too (true to her last name.)
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« Reply #784 on: August 18, 2010, 02:42:06 am »
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Generally, people of European descent who did not make a detour through Latin America on their way to the U.S. are not considered Hispanic or Latino.

Oh of course. But someone who just looks at their name and their pictures (especially Nunes) might assume they are Hispanic.

Spanish-Americans are actually considered Hispanic.
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« Reply #785 on: August 18, 2010, 05:58:46 am »

How many hispanic districts does the VRA require in California?

We only have about 10 I think.  Though from pure percentages we should have around 15-18, mostly because they're either highly concentrated in Los Angeles County (were we have a couple that are over 70% Hispanic), or scattered across the rest of the state in too small of a concentration to actually form a Hispanic-majority district.

The answer is based in a number of SCOTUS cases. In Gingles a three part test was established: 1) it is sufficiently large and geographically compact to constitute a majority in a single-member district, 2) it is politically cohesive, and 3) in the absence of special circumstances, bloc voting usually defeats the minority’s preferred candidate. In Johnson v. DeGrandy the Court rejected a bright line standard of proportionality for majority-minority districts compared to the population, but instead sought to look at the totality of circumstances, specifically whether individual minority groups could elect candidates of their choice. In Bartlett last year a bright line of 50% of the voting age population was set to meet standard 1) of the Gingles test, but states are not barred from creating influence districts if they so choose.

Applying this to CA, I suspect that the Gingles test can be shown for the Hispanic population, and at least 17 districts can be drawn with sufficient VAP (My CD 23 at 53% might be too low for VAP). A lower number of districts might be permitted, but might be successfully challenged given the relatively few Hispanics in the CA delegation compared to the overall population. The Asian districts would not be required, since there are sufficient members in the delegation to show that they can elect candidates of choice, but creating them meets a community of interest standard, and protects the group from dispersal into other districts. No more than one Black district would be required under Bartlett, and I chose not to reduce the number of Hispanic districts to create more influence districts.
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« Reply #786 on: August 18, 2010, 07:43:24 am »
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Generally, people of European descent who did not make a detour through Latin America on their way to the U.S. are not considered Hispanic or Latino.

Oh of course. But someone who just looks at their name and their pictures (especially Nunes) might assume they are Hispanic.

Spanish-Americans are actually considered Hispanic.

Both my post and your post are missing a "by whom." Smiley I think this is a gray area, like whether a white South African can check "African-American". There's also the mess of Latino vs. Hispanic which are preferred in different parts of the country.
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« Reply #787 on: August 19, 2010, 09:13:02 pm »
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Nice maps sbane. Too bad if the redistricting initiative passes (I can't imagine that it will not), it all will be totally illegal. Tongue  Plus, even if it does not pass, Governor Whitman would veto it. Smiley
The initiative that created the redistricting commission for legislative districts, also established the same parameters for congressional districts (respecting political boundaries, not bypassing communities, etc.), while leaving the legislature as the body to perform the redistricting.   The only difference is that the legislature is permitted to make political considerations and take into account the residence of incumbents and potential candidates in drawing congressional districts.

The Legislature is also obligated to "provide access to redistricting data and software, and otherwise ensure full public participation in the redistricting process."  Failure to provide internet access to the data and software precludes full public participation.

So even if the initiative to entrust congressional redistricting to the redistricting commission fails; and Governor Brown Jr. signs the Sbane plan, the California Supreme Court will overturn it on grounds that it violates the California Constitution.  The special master that draws a legal plan for the court will use the members of the redistricting commission to draw the congressional district plan and direct that they not take into account the residence of incumbents and potential candidates, or make other political considerations.
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« Reply #788 on: August 19, 2010, 09:29:32 pm »
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Nice maps sbane. Too bad if the redistricting initiative passes (I can't imagine that it will not), it all will be totally illegal. Tongue  Plus, even if it does not pass, Governor Whitman would veto it. Smiley

Hmm, I don't see what's so wrong with my gerrymandering at all, besides not being visually pleasing enough for Xahar. I mean a district that includes both Long Beach and Compton makes a lot of sense doesn't it? Of course it also contains Seal Beach and Cypress. Tongue Or the district that joins Sunny hills in Fullerton to Huntington park. There's a lot of epic gerrymandering in there. I'm particularly fond of the central valley districts. I didn't know 3 Hispanic districts could be created there.

California Constitution requires that congressional districts comply with the following requirements:

(b) The population of all congressional districts shall be reasonably equal.
(2) Districts shall comply with the federal Voting Rights Act (42 U.S.C. Sec. 1971 and following).
(3) Districts shall be geographically contiguous.
(4) The geographic integrity of any city, county, city and county, neighborhood, or community of interest shall be respected to the extent possible without violating the requirements of any of the preceding subdivisions. Communities of interest shall not include relationships with political parties, incumbents, or political candidates.
(5) To the extent practicable, and where this does not conflict with the criteria above, districts shall be drawn to encourage geographical compactness such that nearby areas of population are not bypassed for more distant population.

I doubt that your plan complies with (4) and (5).  I doubt that you can show that your plan was necessary in order to ensure contiguity.  So you are stuck with showing that your intent was to comply with the VRA, and it was not practicable to do so without violating (4) and (5).
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« Reply #789 on: August 19, 2010, 09:50:39 pm »
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Here's the best case Maryland Senate gerrymanders for both parties:

Democrats:


Republicans:


McCain won 11 seats in the first map, 20 in the second (out of 47.) A Republican majority Maryland Senate might be impossible. I'm quite impressed I was able to draw a McCain district out of Montgomery and Howard counties too.

Currently Republicans hold 14 seats of which probably all except possibly one voted for McCain. Oddly there are two likely McCain-won seats held by the Democrats.
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« Reply #790 on: August 20, 2010, 06:37:25 am »
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Yet another map of Ohio, Republican gerrymander again:



OH-01 (dark blue SW) - Assuming Chabot wins (which seems pretty likely), this district cuts out a bit more of Cincinnati and adds a little more of Butler County to nudge the numbers towards the Republicans.
OH-02 (dark green S) - Little is changed here, except it takes in a little more of Cincinnati. Jean Schmidt's gotten a lot less vocal lately, so she should have little problem holding it.
OH-03 (dark purple W) - Dayton + Republican areas. R-leaning. Mike Turner lives here.
OH-04 (red central) - Jim Jordan's district, completely redesigned to take in a bit of Columbus, Jordan's home in Champaign County, and some Republican-leaning counties in the north central part of the state. Should be another R-leaning district.
OH-05 (yellow NW) - Bob Latta's district; some of the counties changed, but this should remain a solidly R district.
OH-06 (light green E) - Combined parts of Charlie Wilson and Zack Space's districts to make another R-leaning district. Space doesn't live here, though. Wilson might have a chance at holding it in a good year, but a Republican should be able to win it otherwise.
OH-07 (grey S) - Steve Austria lives in the western edge of the district. It's been pushed to the SE corner of the map, and remains solidly R.
OH-08 (light purple SW) - Differently-configured (suburban Cincinnati/Dayton district now) but should remain solidly R for John Boehner.
OH-09 (teal N) - Mary Jo Kilroy gets a safe Dem district that stretches from Toledo to the Dem portions of Lorain County.
OH-10 (magenta N) - Combined parts of Cleveland with Akron. Safe Dem district. Kucinich lives here; Sutton lives outside the district, but could always primary him.
OH-11 (light green N) - Fudge's district; plurality-black. Safe Dem.
OH-12 (light purple central) - Columbus-area district for Pat Tiberi; mostly unchanged.
OH-13 (pink NE) - Sutton lives here, but all the heavily-Dem parts have been removed. It should be a Republican-leaning district now.
OH-14 (brown NE) - LaTourette's district, pretty much the same.
OH-15 (orange central) - Kilroy's, or soon to be Stivers', district. A little less of Columbus, a little more of the Republican counties to the west.
OH-16 (dark teal E) - Ryan's district, includes the Youngstown area, Canton, and a bit of Space's district. Ryan, Space, and Boccieri all actually live in this district. Safe Dem.

So this one should, at best, go 12-4 R.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2010, 06:39:05 am by JohnnyLongtorso »Logged
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« Reply #791 on: August 20, 2010, 08:16:50 am »

Yet another map of Ohio, Republican gerrymander again:



OH-01 (dark blue SW) - Assuming Chabot wins (which seems pretty likely), this district cuts out a bit more of Cincinnati and adds a little more of Butler County to nudge the numbers towards the Republicans.
OH-02 (dark green S) - Little is changed here, except it takes in a little more of Cincinnati. Jean Schmidt's gotten a lot less vocal lately, so she should have little problem holding it.
OH-03 (dark purple W) - Dayton + Republican areas. R-leaning. Mike Turner lives here.
OH-04 (red central) - Jim Jordan's district, completely redesigned to take in a bit of Columbus, Jordan's home in Champaign County, and some Republican-leaning counties in the north central part of the state. Should be another R-leaning district.
OH-05 (yellow NW) - Bob Latta's district; some of the counties changed, but this should remain a solidly R district.
OH-06 (light green E) - Combined parts of Charlie Wilson and Zack Space's districts to make another R-leaning district. Space doesn't live here, though. Wilson might have a chance at holding it in a good year, but a Republican should be able to win it otherwise.
OH-07 (grey S) - Steve Austria lives in the western edge of the district. It's been pushed to the SE corner of the map, and remains solidly R.
OH-08 (light purple SW) - Differently-configured (suburban Cincinnati/Dayton district now) but should remain solidly R for John Boehner.
OH-09 (teal N) - Mary Jo Kilroy gets a safe Dem district that stretches from Toledo to the Dem portions of Lorain County.
OH-10 (magenta N) - Combined parts of Cleveland with Akron. Safe Dem district. Kucinich lives here; Sutton lives outside the district, but could always primary him.
OH-11 (light green N) - Fudge's district; plurality-black. Safe Dem.
OH-12 (light purple central) - Columbus-area district for Pat Tiberi; mostly unchanged.
OH-13 (pink NE) - Sutton lives here, but all the heavily-Dem parts have been removed. It should be a Republican-leaning district now.
OH-14 (brown NE) - LaTourette's district, pretty much the same.
OH-15 (orange central) - Kilroy's, or soon to be Stivers', district. A little less of Columbus, a little more of the Republican counties to the west.
OH-16 (dark teal E) - Ryan's district, includes the Youngstown area, Canton, and a bit of Space's district. Ryan, Space, and Boccieri all actually live in this district. Safe Dem.

So this one should, at best, go 12-4 R.

I think that a GOP gerrymander would play it safe and keep OH-11 majority Black. The best way to do that is to run it down to Akron. However, that would keep OH-10 on the west side of Cleveland.
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« Reply #792 on: August 20, 2010, 12:11:28 pm »
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I think that a GOP gerrymander would play it safe and keep OH-11 majority Black. The best way to do that is to run it down to Akron. However, that would keep OH-10 on the west side of Cleveland.
In 2000, it was possible to include all of Cleveland in a majority-black district, though the included suburbs had to be very selective.  In 2010, more of the eastern and southeastern suburbs will be majority black, and presumably the black share of Cleveland itself will be greater (based on the 2006-2008 ACS) the district is now 59% black vs. 56% at the time of the 2000 census, this is because whites have been leaving at a greater rate than blacks (the district has lost 80,000 since the census and the loss of 2 seats is going to require a huge pick up of population.

The black population in Akron is concentrated in the SW part of the city, and Akron itself is only 30% black, so you would need a long isthmus running through the northern part of Summit County and into Akron, which also results in eastern and western Summit County being split, or having to wrap around CD-11.

I don't think you need to string cities together to pick up enough black residents if you can create a compact district in Cuyahoga county that is very high plurality black.
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« Reply #793 on: August 20, 2010, 12:43:00 pm »
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If the GOP is going to draw the lines in Ohio, they would be well advised to throw in the towel on Columbus, and give the Dems a district there. Otherwise, they risk having two Dem Columbus based seats at some point. Pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered. Did you consider that Muon2?
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« Reply #794 on: August 20, 2010, 01:40:04 pm »

If the GOP is going to draw the lines in Ohio, they would be well advised to throw in the towel on Columbus, and give the Dems a district there. Otherwise, they risk having two Dem Columbus based seats at some point. Pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered. Did you consider that Muon2?

It's not my map, and I would have to look at precinct-level data to see if the new Columbus-area seats were strong enough to hold GOP incumbents during 2008. I do think that JL is on the right track in that a GOP map may want to split Columbus four ways rather than the current three-way split if they don't concede a seat.

I think that a GOP gerrymander would play it safe and keep OH-11 majority Black. The best way to do that is to run it down to Akron. However, that would keep OH-10 on the west side of Cleveland.
In 2000, it was possible to include all of Cleveland in a majority-black district, though the included suburbs had to be very selective.  In 2010, more of the eastern and southeastern suburbs will be majority black, and presumably the black share of Cleveland itself will be greater (based on the 2006-2008 ACS) the district is now 59% black vs. 56% at the time of the 2000 census, this is because whites have been leaving at a greater rate than blacks (the district has lost 80,000 since the census and the loss of 2 seats is going to require a huge pick up of population.

The black population in Akron is concentrated in the SW part of the city, and Akron itself is only 30% black, so you would need a long isthmus running through the northern part of Summit County and into Akron, which also results in eastern and western Summit County being split, or having to wrap around CD-11.

I don't think you need to string cities together to pick up enough black residents if you can create a compact district in Cuyahoga county that is very high plurality black.

The Bartlett decision might imply otherwise. If there has been a pattern of racial bloc voting in NE OH, and there is a potential election district with 50% plus black voting age population, then there could be a valid section 2 claim against a map that did not create a majority-black district. The decision rejected plurality districts that relied on crossover white votes or on a multiple-minority coalition.
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« Reply #795 on: August 20, 2010, 02:37:44 pm »
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It seems to me, without knowing for sure, because I have not crunched the numbers, that it is better and safer for the GOP to pack as many Dems as possible into one Franklin County district, and then they will have a much easier time making everything else around reasonably safe for them (as opposed to some pathetic PVI +2 kind of junk - we want PVI +4 at least, with +6 being even better). If it done right, the Dems get two Cleveland area seats (it may have to be three to keep the risk down of having to worry about a couple of marginal seats), one Youngstown seat, and the Toledo seat, the Columbus seat, and that is it. 10 or 11 pretty safe seats out of 16, is not a bad day's work.

Does that make sense?
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« Reply #796 on: August 20, 2010, 06:33:03 pm »
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If the GOP is going to draw the lines in Ohio, they would be well advised to throw in the towel on Columbus, and give the Dems a district there. Otherwise, they risk having two Dem Columbus based seats at some point. Pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered. Did you consider that Muon2?

Well, if they're going to do that, they might as well draw a 2nd Black-Majority district stretching from Cincinnati to Dayton to Columbus.  You can draw a decent finger District that's about 55% black that way, and it will guarantee Republicans safe Districts in all of Central and Southern Ohio.
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« Reply #797 on: August 20, 2010, 07:02:24 pm »
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For what it's worth, the district I made is about 48% black.

Dave's posted on SSP about how to help get more partisan data on the app:

http://swingstateproject.com/diary/7420/redistricting-app-how-you-can-help-get-partisan-data

Edit: for those that don't care to read the article, he also mentions New Mexico has partisan data now.
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« Reply #798 on: August 20, 2010, 07:46:35 pm »
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So which states have partisan data for now?
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« Reply #799 on: August 20, 2010, 08:12:35 pm »
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California, Maryland, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, and Texas. You have to push the "test data" button first for New York.
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