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Author Topic: Dave's Redistricting App  (Read 307358 times)
Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #825 on: August 30, 2010, 10:31:13 PM »

Is it possible to draw an Asian-majority CD in the lower 48?
How small would that CD have to be to have and Asian majority?

It is possible, btw, to draw a majority-minority CD in Wisconsin. It looks hideous, though, because the Milwaukee ghettos have to be connected via very thin strips with high-minority areas of Racine and Kenosha.

There are several examples of Asian-majority districts in Northern and Southern California on previous pages. They're not pretty, but they're not that terrible.

It is also possible to create an Asian-majority seat in NYC. Muon did one of those, too.
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muon2
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« Reply #826 on: August 30, 2010, 11:01:52 PM »

Is it possible to draw an Asian-majority CD in the lower 48?
How small would that CD have to be to have and Asian majority?

It is possible, btw, to draw a majority-minority CD in Wisconsin. It looks hideous, though, because the Milwaukee ghettos have to be connected via very thin strips with high-minority areas of Racine and Kenosha.



I've identified three so far from the data in Dave's App. The two in CA were part of the discussion on this thread early this month. CD15 in the San Jose area (orange below) is 52% Asian. CD 38 in the San Gabriel area of LA (slate green below) is just over 50% Asian.





There is also one possible in NYC as I posted in Jan.  The yellow CD that stretches across Queens and through Chinatown into Brooklyn is 51% Asian.


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Verily
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« Reply #827 on: August 30, 2010, 11:10:08 PM »
« Edited: August 30, 2010, 11:13:32 PM by Verily »

Here's a more zoomed in version of the NYC Asian district. It's 51% Asian; the Brooklyn and Queens portions are 48% Asian each while the Manhattan part is 71% Asian. The bulk of the population is in Queens, though. This district would have really interesting (read: wild) primaries as the different neighborhoods coalesced around their own candidates. And the Chinese v. Korean v. South Asian dynamic would be interesting (although that's somewhat neighborhood-based as well, and Chinese are clearly the largest Asian group in the district).

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RI
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« Reply #828 on: August 30, 2010, 11:14:59 PM »

Could I get a zoomed in version of the one in San Jose, too? I tried recreating it, but I wound up a ways short on population with no large asian enclaves remaining and I was just hovering over 50% at that point.
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RIP Robert H Bork
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« Reply #829 on: August 31, 2010, 02:02:55 PM »
« Edited: August 31, 2010, 02:05:08 PM by Mideast Assemblyman True Conservative »

Hey guys, Dave's added partisan data for Pennsylvania.

Yay! I'll get to work on producing a map at once.
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« Reply #830 on: August 31, 2010, 06:59:44 PM »

Looks like it's not possible draw a McCain State House seat in Philly after all.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #831 on: August 31, 2010, 07:17:03 PM »

Looks like it's not possible draw a McCain State House seat in Philly after all.

You give up too easily. This district is 52% McCain.

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jimrtex
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« Reply #832 on: August 31, 2010, 11:04:02 PM »

Looks like it's not possible draw a McCain State House seat in Philly after all.

You give up too easily. This district is 52% McCain.



You have 3 enclaves, two along the western border, and one in the northeast that are cutoff, and the area that you wrap around might not have enough population for a district of its own.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #833 on: August 31, 2010, 11:40:10 PM »

You have 3 enclaves, two along the western border, and one in the northeast that are cutoff, and the area that you wrap around might not have enough population for a district of its own.

Always a complainer. Perhaps this is more to your liking then? Only 51% McCain, but no enclaves.

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jimrtex
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« Reply #834 on: September 01, 2010, 12:37:26 AM »

You have 3 enclaves, two along the western border, and one in the northeast that are cutoff, and the area that you wrap around might not have enough population for a district of its own.

Always a complainer. Perhaps this is more to your liking then? Only 51% McCain, but no enclaves.


What is the population of the center area?  Maybe you can create a donut?
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BRTD
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« Reply #835 on: September 01, 2010, 12:49:52 AM »

I don't see the enclaves as a problem, since there is no rule the neighboring seats have to be entirely within Philly.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #836 on: September 01, 2010, 01:29:52 AM »

What is the population of the center area?  Maybe you can create a donut?

I was curious about that as well, so I tested it. The center area would form most of a district, but there would have to be a little bit on the outside. Some of the precincts are rather inconveniently shaped; I can't get population equality for the center district without splitting a precinct or forcing a neighboring district to go outside of Philly. Even if the outer district remains entirely within Philly, it would have to be extended along the northern and western edges of the McCain district and include a small area to the south as well.
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Smash255
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« Reply #837 on: September 01, 2010, 02:07:27 AM »

What is the population of the center area?  Maybe you can create a donut?

I was curious about that as well, so I tested it. The center area would form most of a district, but there would have to be a little bit on the outside. Some of the precincts are rather inconveniently shaped; I can't get population equality for the center district without splitting a precinct or forcing a neighboring district to go outside of Philly. Even if the outer district remains entirely within Philly, it would have to be extended along the northern and western edges of the McCain district and include a small area to the south as well.

I just did it quickly, so could have missed one of them, but the population seemed short by about 6,000.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #838 on: September 01, 2010, 07:51:34 AM »

Looks like it's not possible draw a McCain State House seat in Philly after all.

You give up too easily. This district is 52% McCain.



Anyone else not seeing an image here? I tried loading the URL and I couldn't access it... but it could be my work firewall getting stronger.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #839 on: September 01, 2010, 02:21:47 PM »

What is the population of the center area?  Maybe you can create a donut?

I was curious about that as well, so I tested it. The center area would form most of a district, but there would have to be a little bit on the outside. Some of the precincts are rather inconveniently shaped; I can't get population equality for the center district without splitting a precinct or forcing a neighboring district to go outside of Philly. Even if the outer district remains entirely within Philly, it would have to be extended along the northern and western edges of the McCain district and include a small area to the south as well.

I just did it quickly, so could have missed one of them, but the population seemed short by about 6,000.

Using estimates, a 203-seat plan, and keeping districts entirely in Philadelphia, this is what Northeast Philly would probably look like with the McCain district. The largest deviation from the ideal population is -68, in the green district.



I'm not sure that the green district is really contiguous, but if you zoom in close enough, it looks like it is. If it isn't, the district will have to go into Montgomery County, but existing districts in the area also go into MontCo, including a district that is somewhat similar to the green district.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #840 on: September 01, 2010, 07:25:52 PM »

What is the population of the center area?  Maybe you can create a donut?

I was curious about that as well, so I tested it. The center area would form most of a district, but there would have to be a little bit on the outside. Some of the precincts are rather inconveniently shaped; I can't get population equality for the center district without splitting a precinct or forcing a neighboring district to go outside of Philly. Even if the outer district remains entirely within Philly, it would have to be extended along the northern and western edges of the McCain district and include a small area to the south as well.

I just did it quickly, so could have missed one of them, but the population seemed short by about 6,000.

Using estimates, a 203-seat plan, and keeping districts entirely in Philadelphia, this is what Northeast Philly would probably look like with the McCain district. The largest deviation from the ideal population is -68, in the green district.



I'm not sure that the green district is really contiguous, but if you zoom in close enough, it looks like it is. If it isn't, the district will have to go into Montgomery County, but existing districts in the area also go into MontCo, including a district that is somewhat similar to the green district.

It is contiguous.  The beak of the green VTD actually extends about a block south of the southern border of the blue VTD.  So while the southern tip of the green VTD is on city limits, there is an east-west connection of about a block between the two green VTDs.

Tomlinson Road is the southern boundary of the blue VTD and takes a jog before entering Montgomery County.  It is the jog that forms the border between the green VTDs.
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Verily
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« Reply #841 on: September 03, 2010, 08:02:13 PM »

Democratic gerrymander of PA. Guarantees the defeat of Jim Gerlach and makes Charlie Dent likely to lose while also preserving all incumbents except Critz, who is doomed.





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Bo
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« Reply #842 on: September 03, 2010, 08:41:41 PM »

Democratic gerrymander of PA. Guarantees the defeat of Jim Gerlach and makes Charlie Dent likely to lose while also preserving all incumbents except Critz, who is doomed.







What are the percentages for each CD?
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muon2
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« Reply #843 on: September 03, 2010, 09:00:55 PM »

Democratic gerrymander of PA. Guarantees the defeat of Jim Gerlach and makes Charlie Dent likely to lose while also preserving all incumbents except Critz, who is doomed.




Is there a VRA district left in Philly?
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #844 on: September 03, 2010, 11:35:40 PM »
« Edited: September 03, 2010, 11:44:01 PM by Verily »

Yes; PA-2 is 55% black (could be more easily).

PA-1: 62-37 Obama
PA-2: 81-19 Obama
PA-3: 56-43 Obama
PA-4: 59-40 Obama
PA-5: 36-63 McCain
PA-6: 63-36 Obama
PA-7: 65-34 Obama
PA-8: 60-39 Obama
PA-9: 37-62 McCain
PA-10: 49-50 McCain (the best one can do for Carney, but he should be reasonably safe)
PA-11: 56-43 Obama
PA-12: 41-58 McCain
PA-13: 62-37 Obama
PA-14: 63-37 Obama
PA-15: 58-41 Obama
PA-16: 36-63 McCain
PA-17: 55-44 Obama
PA-18: 38-61 McCain
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BRTD
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« Reply #845 on: September 04, 2010, 12:27:43 AM »

Critz probably could win that PA-12 seat, it's hardly a Republican seat so much as an anti-Obama one. Kerry probably got at least around 45% there.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #846 on: September 04, 2010, 09:05:07 PM »

I wonder how some of these areas in "Pennsyltucky" kept their ultra-partisanship intact in presidential elections like that electoral district in Fayette County that voted 96% for Obama. Most of the communities around the Monongahela River still voted for Obama with decent margins, especially considering that they are uniformly white.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #847 on: September 05, 2010, 11:18:02 AM »
« Edited: September 05, 2010, 11:20:46 AM by Verily »

Critz probably could win that PA-12 seat, it's hardly a Republican seat so much as an anti-Obama one. Kerry probably got at least around 45% there.

Unfortunately for Critz, he lives in Johnstown, which is split between PA-3 and PA-9. And there's no way he could win PA-12 anyway.


I'm working on a Republican map but have run into difficulty creating only 3 Obama seats in SE PA. It may be impossible.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #848 on: September 05, 2010, 12:50:23 PM »

You also put Holden in PA-10, and he'd probably knock off Carney in a primary. Dent might very well run there too.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #849 on: September 05, 2010, 05:20:14 PM »

You also put Holden in PA-10, and he'd probably knock off Carney in a primary. Dent might very well run there too.

Interesting. I assumed Holden lived around Harrisburg. But Carney would surely win a Carney-Holden primary in PA-10; Carney represents a lot more of the district than Holden does.

Dent couldn't beat either Holden or Carney in that PA-10. The district doesn't fit his style, and he barely represents any of it right now.
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