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muon2
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« Reply #875 on: September 07, 2010, 11:05:42 PM »

Here is a map of California using the redistricting commission's guidelines with 53 districts.

Will more respect for county lines be required?  You have 4 districts crossing the Los Angeles San Bernadino county line.

I found that I used 4 as well. However, two were for majority-minority districts (Hispanic and Asian). The other two were dictated in part by road connections and mountains, so they made sense from that perspective.

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muon2
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« Reply #876 on: September 07, 2010, 11:15:18 PM »

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Is there a SCOTUS case that clearly says that Muon2?  Just asking.

And what does candidate of their choice mean - the chap whom at least 50% + 1 of Hispanics vote for?  That seems kind of hard to effect. How does one know? Is there any case law on what the definition of "candidate of their choice" means?


The Bartlett case made it clear that no action was required for populations that were under 50% of a district's VAP. Other cases make it clear that when there is 50% then all circumstances must be evaluated to determine if a majority-minority district is required. If it is required, then the district must be drawn so that the minority can elect the candidate of their choice.

The court has deferred on the question about citizen VAP vs total VAP, which could create a situation where higher percentages are needed. Some map makers have looked at election returns to estimate the threshold a minority (esp. Hispanics) would need to elect the candidates of their choice. For instance an area of 60% Hispanic population might repeatedly fail to elect their candidates due to a high non-citizen population. Some maps take this into account and other do not, but I'm not aware of a court decision that would give definite direction. Since some anticipate that it might happen, the safe course is to draw a map accordingly.
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Torie
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« Reply #877 on: September 07, 2010, 11:30:58 PM »

How does one know how Hispanics actually voted?  Exit polls?  Or is the game just one involving what surname seems to get elected? Has SCOTUS ruled on this notion, that if 50% +1 Hispanic VAP seems to still elect Anglos, and in particular Anglo Republicans, that further inquiry is needed?
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muon2
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« Reply #878 on: September 07, 2010, 11:45:45 PM »

How does one know how Hispanics actually voted?  Exit polls?  Or is the game just one involving what surname seems to get elected? Has SCOTUS ruled on this notion, that if 50% +1 Hispanic VAP seems to still elect Anglos, and in particular Anglo Republicans, that further inquiry is needed?

What I'm saying is that SCOTUS has not ruled on this specific question. However, they have clearly left open the possibility that the state could find a way to make a 50% VAP district that would be drawn to favor the white candidate instead of the minority candidate. The De Grandy court has intentionally left itself the ability to rule against the state in that circumstance.
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Torie
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« Reply #879 on: September 07, 2010, 11:52:52 PM »

How does one know how Hispanics actually voted?  Exit polls?  Or is the game just one involving what surname seems to get elected? Has SCOTUS ruled on this notion, that if 50% +1 Hispanic VAP seems to still elect Anglos, and in particular Anglo Republicans, that further inquiry is needed?

What I'm saying is that SCOTUS has not ruled on this specific question. However, they have clearly left open the possibility that the state could find a way to make a 50% VAP district that would be drawn to favor the white candidate instead of the minority candidate. The De Grandy court has intentionally left itself the ability to rule against the state in that circumstance.

OK. So if Bonilla had won anyway, due to the remaining hyper GOP Anglo precincts remaining in that CD after being redrawn, we might have had another case! Will we have another case if Ciro loses?  Sure his opponent is Hispanic, but Ciro will get the majority of the Hispanic vote, or of the fictive Hispanic VAP vote (if they all in some alternative universe assuming citizenship voted in percentage numbers equaling the Anglos) in all events. I guess not given the place we are at on the decennial calendar. This is just so much fun, not.
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« Reply #880 on: September 07, 2010, 11:54:23 PM »

I managed to draw a 60% white district in Minnesota. Someone do better. This district is a real work of art by the way, it goes out from the Twin Cities the Red Lake Reservation and the precincts in Rochester with high black populations to the heavily Native precincts in Duluth.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #881 on: September 07, 2010, 11:55:39 PM »

How does one know how Hispanics actually voted?  Exit polls?  Or is the game just one involving what surname seems to get elected? Has SCOTUS ruled on this notion, that if 50% +1 Hispanic VAP seems to still elect Anglos, and in particular Anglo Republicans, that further inquiry is needed?
You take election results and correlate precinct results with the portion of the voters who are Hispanic-surnamed.  Depending on what you are trying to prove, you choose your expert witnesses carefully, and they choose the elections that prove the point you want to prove.  You roll in some 10-year old census data, and make adjustments for Hispanics who are not Hispanic surnamed, and non-Hispanics who have a Hispanic surname.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #882 on: September 08, 2010, 12:01:08 AM »

Tom DeLay already tried that loophole with heavily Republican districts with non-voting Hispanics, and it got shot down by a federal court, hence why Ciro Rodriguez is back in Congress. Safe to say the Obama DOJ won't be more lenient.

Really it would take a rather vile gerrymander not to draw at least one new district in South Texas that is supermajority Hispanic.
You can only do that if you draw another fajita strip district.
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BRTD
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« Reply #883 on: September 08, 2010, 12:19:16 AM »

The new seat I drew was just Cameron County plus a strip into Hidalgo County.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #884 on: September 08, 2010, 12:32:37 AM »

The new seat I drew was just Cameron County plus a strip into Hidalgo County.
Which means you cut Nueces County loose which will need counties to the NE and will be a chance for a Republican pickup, since you will still need counties like Willacy, Kleberg, and Jim Wells for the border districts.
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« Reply #885 on: September 08, 2010, 12:44:25 AM »

Nope. The 27th kept Nueces County and is still 64% Hispanic.

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Sbane
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« Reply #886 on: September 08, 2010, 01:54:52 AM »

Here is a map of California using the redistricting commission's guidelines with 53 districts.






Will more respect for county lines be required?  You have 4 districts crossing the Los Angeles San Bernadino county line.



CD 26 is all along I-210 and makes sense as a district, notwithstanding the different counties it is in. It's really just one metro area, the county lines don't matter much. CD 25 connects high desert semi-exurban communities that have commonalities. CD 38 joins West Covina/Pomona with Ontario/Chino in San Bernardino county creating a majority Hispanic district. These areas are more inland and could be considered a community of interest. CD 40 is a district that takes in more Anglo/Asian areas in LA county like Diamond Bar and Walnut as well as wealthy Chino Hills in San Bernardino county. This is joined with more Anglo/Asian areas like Fullerton and Buena park in OC. These areas are all close by and are quite similar to each other.
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Dgov
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« Reply #887 on: September 08, 2010, 04:24:42 AM »
« Edited: September 08, 2010, 04:26:15 AM by Dgov »

Nope. The 27th kept Nueces County and is still 64% Hispanic.



Which you created by fajita-stripping (or more fajita-stripping to be precise) the 15th district, that is even worse than the 15th that Delay originally drew.  It stretches from McAllen to the Houston Metro area--you don't get much uglier than that.  In a fair map, I usually just cut out the rural central Texas/San Antonio parts of the 27th, 15th, and 28th, and make them each like 90% Hispanic.

I'm also curious as to whether or not creating minority-majority districts where they are not VRA required would be struck down.  Making a 60% Black one in Houston makes the rest of Harris county more than 55% Republican, but it's not very compact (not really ugly, like IL-17 or something, but kind of long and sweeping).
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« Reply #888 on: September 08, 2010, 07:30:29 AM »

How does one know how Hispanics actually voted?  Exit polls?  Or is the game just one involving what surname seems to get elected? Has SCOTUS ruled on this notion, that if 50% +1 Hispanic VAP seems to still elect Anglos, and in particular Anglo Republicans, that further inquiry is needed?

What I'm saying is that SCOTUS has not ruled on this specific question. However, they have clearly left open the possibility that the state could find a way to make a 50% VAP district that would be drawn to favor the white candidate instead of the minority candidate. The De Grandy court has intentionally left itself the ability to rule against the state in that circumstance.

OK. So if Bonilla had won anyway, due to the remaining hyper GOP Anglo precincts remaining in that CD after being redrawn, we might have had another case! Will we have another case if Ciro loses?  Sure his opponent is Hispanic, but Ciro will get the majority of the Hispanic vote, or of the fictive Hispanic VAP vote (if they all in some alternative universe assuming citizenship voted in percentage numbers equaling the Anglos) in all events. I guess not given the place we are at on the decennial calendar. This is just so much fun, not.

Not if it were a one-off election; LA-02 is not a VRA violation. But if Rodriguez lost, and his Republican replacement were consistently reelected without winning the Hispanic vote, then it would be a VRA violation until and unless the replacement began winning a majority of the Hispanic vote (a la Steve Cohen).
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Brittain33
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« Reply #889 on: September 08, 2010, 08:07:33 AM »

I'm also curious as to whether or not creating minority-majority districts where they are not VRA required would be struck down.  Making a 60% Black one in Houston makes the rest of Harris county more than 55% Republican, but it's not very compact (not really ugly, like IL-17 or something, but kind of long and sweeping).

This may not be exactly what you are talking about, but you don't necessarily need to achieve the same high numbers with African-American VRA districts because of much higher levels of citizenship among the minority population and because of the likelihood in a place like urban Houston where the crucial test is ability to win the Democratic primary, not the general election. That remaining 40% is not likely to be exclusively Anglo and certainly not 85+% Republican voting which means that the minority community can win as part of a Democratic coalition they dominate.
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muon2
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« Reply #890 on: September 08, 2010, 09:49:06 PM »
« Edited: September 08, 2010, 09:56:30 PM by muon2 »

Nope. The 27th kept Nueces County and is still 64% Hispanic.



Which you created by fajita-stripping (or more fajita-stripping to be precise) the 15th district, that is even worse than the 15th that Delay originally drew.  It stretches from McAllen to the Houston Metro area--you don't get much uglier than that.  In a fair map, I usually just cut out the rural central Texas/San Antonio parts of the 27th, 15th, and 28th, and make them each like 90% Hispanic.

I'm also curious as to whether or not creating minority-majority districts where they are not VRA required would be struck down.  Making a 60% Black one in Houston makes the rest of Harris county more than 55% Republican, but it's not very compact (not really ugly, like IL-17 or something, but kind of long and sweeping).

By possible but not required, I would assume that this means that the Gingles test is not met. The Bartlett decision clearly said that states could do more than the minimum to assist minority groups, but there was no mandate to do that. Their comment was with respect to the creation of coalition districts, but it would seem that the same logic would apply to creating majority-minority districts.

An example would be creating majority-Asian districts in CA. There is little sign of bloc voting by whites against Asian candidates there and Asians are not as prone to bloc voting for the same candidate. The court would not mandate an Asian-majority district, nor would it be forbidden unless it caused a violation with another minority group.

As far as the black district in Houston, a reasonably shaped one could be created at 52%, leaving two solid Hispanic ones.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #891 on: September 08, 2010, 10:17:06 PM »

Here is a map of California using the redistricting commission's guidelines with 53 districts.






Will more respect for county lines be required?  You have 4 districts crossing the Los Angeles San Bernadino county line.



CD 26 is all along I-210 and makes sense as a district, notwithstanding the different counties it is in. It's really just one metro area, the county lines don't matter much. CD 25 connects high desert semi-exurban communities that have commonalities. CD 38 joins West Covina/Pomona with Ontario/Chino in San Bernardino county creating a majority Hispanic district. These areas are more inland and could be considered a community of interest. CD 40 is a district that takes in more Anglo/Asian areas in LA county like Diamond Bar and Walnut as well as wealthy Chino Hills in San Bernardino county. This is joined with more Anglo/Asian areas like Fullerton and Buena park in OC. These areas are all close by and are quite similar to each other.
You have explained why you drew the districts that you did.  You did not explain why your districts complied with the California Constitution.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #892 on: September 08, 2010, 10:30:36 PM »

Nope. The 27th kept Nueces County and is still 64% Hispanic.


LULAC v Perry specifically rejected the McAllen to Austin district since it was merely connecting disparate areas of the state based on skin color.  Some of the remedies suggested drawing districts that went from McAllen to almost Austin, but were rejected by the district court, which implied that Laredo-San Antonio and McAllen-San Antonio districts were suspect.  In the past, these could be justified on the basis of insufficient population along the border.    But in 2011, you'll be able to draw 4 districts along the border.   (1) El Paso; (2) Laredo-Mid Valley-Trans Pecos;  Cameron-Hidalgo;  Hidalgo.  Include the Brush Country as necessary.
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ag
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« Reply #893 on: September 08, 2010, 10:34:20 PM »

I managed to draw a 60% white district in Minnesota. Someone do better. This district is a real work of art by the way, it goes out from the Twin Cities the Red Lake Reservation and the precincts in Rochester with high black populations to the heavily Native precincts in Duluth.

Got much better: 52% white, 20% black, 12% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 2% Nat. Am., 3% other. And it didn't really have to get that ugly: w/ exception of couple precincts (which I could probably drop without major harm, it all fit into the Hennepin and Ramsey counties. I don't think I can get it under 50% white, though.
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Sbane
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« Reply #894 on: September 09, 2010, 12:48:59 PM »

Here is a map of California using the redistricting commission's guidelines with 53 districts.






Will more respect for county lines be required?  You have 4 districts crossing the Los Angeles San Bernadino county line.



CD 26 is all along I-210 and makes sense as a district, notwithstanding the different counties it is in. It's really just one metro area, the county lines don't matter much. CD 25 connects high desert semi-exurban communities that have commonalities. CD 38 joins West Covina/Pomona with Ontario/Chino in San Bernardino county creating a majority Hispanic district. These areas are more inland and could be considered a community of interest. CD 40 is a district that takes in more Anglo/Asian areas in LA county like Diamond Bar and Walnut as well as wealthy Chino Hills in San Bernardino county. This is joined with more Anglo/Asian areas like Fullerton and Buena park in OC. These areas are all close by and are quite similar to each other.
You have explained why you drew the districts that you did.  You did not explain why your districts complied with the California Constitution.

Communities of interest is one of the criteria looked at by the redistricting commission, which is what is relevant here. One of the districts would be mandated by the VRA. The rest of them are communities that are close to each other and are similar. It certainly makes more sense to put Chino Hills in a district with Diamond Bar and Walnut than in a district with Chino. Don't let the names confuse you. The communities along the 210 tend to be similar, slightly more anglo than usual and wealthier. The 26th district puts them together. I don't really think courts are going to be nitpick too much about county lines in a big metro area. Outside of LA and the bay area, I have tried to respect county lines as much as possible and still create Hispanic districts.

And lastly I have not made the districts in such a fashion to favor either party. Remember we had incumbent protection last time around, which meant Drier's district was drawn to include areas like La Canada Flintridge which wasn't even contiguous with the rest of the population in the district. That should be frowned down upon more than crossing some irrelevant county line. Anyone who has actually driven around the area and known people who live in the area (Pomona) can tell you that there isn't a huge difference between San Bernardino county and LA county as the districts have been drawn. Now whether the courts will decide county lines are more important or more homogenous districts, I can't say. But I don't think it is possible to draw districts in the LA area, trying to incorporate VRA mandated districts and communities of interest, and not cross county lines. If the final map doesn't have some districts going across county lines, I will eat my hat.
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Torie
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« Reply #895 on: September 09, 2010, 09:12:59 PM »

As long as there is a good reason to cross a county line, it should be OK.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #896 on: September 10, 2010, 12:05:31 AM »

As long as there is a good reason to cross a county line, it should be OK.

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The previous subdivisions deal with population equality, VRA compliance, and contiguity.  It may be necessary to span county boundaries for purposes of population equality or VRA, but in general it should be possible to do this without more than one district spanning a county boundary. 

The findings section of Proposition 11 explicitly noted the splitting of cities, and I think that a reasonable interpretation of legislative intent was to avoid splitting counties and cities.  "counties shall be respected to the extent possible" should be read as "counties shall be disrespected only to the extent necessary to comply with population equality and the VRA"

The proposition that would put congressional redistricting under the redistricting commission adds language to that section:

"The geographic integrity of any city, county, city and county, local neighborhood, or local community of interest shall be respected in a manner that minimizes their divsion to the extent possible without violating the requirements of any of the preceding subdivisions."

It also further refines the definition of "local community of interest".  Perhaps you could argue that districts spanning county boundaries were necessary to avoid splitting a "community of interest".  But unless, the extent of these local community of interests were defined in advance, and consistently respected it gives the appearance of mere rationalization.  BTW, defining these "local community of interest" will give the commission something to do while waiting for census data.
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« Reply #897 on: September 14, 2010, 05:12:26 AM »

Okay, I think I just found the Holy Grail of Redistricting--The Black Plurality, Republican-voting District.  In Georgia, using a 14-district plan with the new Population estimates, make a district that contains Clayton, Henry, Rockdale, and Newton counties, and part of Spalding county.  The result is a district that is 46% black to 41% White, and Voted for Bush by a few thousand votes in 2004 according to this map:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

Not that this would actually be useful to Republicans in the future, as this part of Georgia was probably the Biggest swing towards Obama of any region in the country, as it would have gone to him with somewhere close to 65% of the vote, but still.  Are the South Atlanta Suburbs famous for Black Republicans or something?
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #898 on: September 14, 2010, 04:20:54 PM »
« Edited: September 14, 2010, 10:04:58 PM by Vazdul »

Okay, I think I just found the Holy Grail of Redistricting--The Black Plurality, Republican-voting District.  In Georgia, using a 14-district plan with the new Population estimates, make a district that contains Clayton, Henry, Rockdale, and Newton counties, and part of Spalding county.  The result is a district that is 46% black to 41% White, and Voted for Bush by a few thousand votes in 2004 according to this map:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

Not that this would actually be useful to Republicans in the future, as this part of Georgia was probably the Biggest swing towards Obama of any region in the country, as it would have gone to him with somewhere close to 65% of the vote, but still.  Are the South Atlanta Suburbs famous for Black Republicans or something?

No, the area is just experiencing very rapid growth among its minority population. Take a look a the shift in demographics since 2000.

Clayton County:
2000: 34.94% White, 51.08% Black, 7.50% Hispanic, 4.52% Asian, 0.23% Native American, 1.73% Other
2008: 20.03% White, 61.55% Black, 11.65% Hispanic, 4.99% Asian, 0.28% Native American, 1.50% Other.

Henry County:
2000: 80.06% White, 14.61% Black, 2.26% Hispanic, 1.77% Asian, 0.21% Native American, 1.10% Other.
2008: 58.13% White, 32.35% Black, 5.19% Hispanic, 2.75% Asian, 0.21% Native American, 1.38% Other.

Rockdale County:
2000: 72.69% White, 18.07% Black, 5.96% Hispanic, 1.96% Asian, 0.24% Native American, 1.07% Other.
2008: 46.79% White, 39.83% Black, 9.84% Hispanic, 2.06% Asian, 0.22% Native American, 1.26% Other.

Newton County:
2000:  74.20% White, 22.08% Black, 1.87% Hispanic, 0.73% Asian, 0.21% Native American, 0.91% Other
2008: 57.58% White, 36.26% Black, 3.81% Hispanic, 1.02% Asian, 0.18% Native American, 1.15% Other

The four counties combined:
2000: 56.39% White, 33.73% Black, 5.28% Hispanic, 3.00% Asian, 0.22% Native American, 1.38% Other.
2008: 40.47% White, 46.26% Black, 8.31% Hispanic, 3.34% Asian, 0.24% Native American, 1.38% Other.

The minority population is growing so fast that the accompanying political transformation is just as rapid.
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« Reply #899 on: September 14, 2010, 06:33:03 PM »

Just to show the rapidness of the political transformation... Clinton won Clayton County, GA 45-41 in 1992. By 2000, Gore won it 65-33. And in 2008, Obama won it 83-17. Similar is now happening in Henry, Newton and Rockdale Counties, and also in nearby Douglas, Cobb and Gwinnett Counties.
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