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danny
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« Reply #900 on: September 14, 2010, 06:40:02 PM »

Okay, I think I just found the Holy Grail of Redistricting--The Black Plurality, Republican-voting District.  In Georgia, using a 14-district plan with the new Population estimates, make a district that contains Clayton, Henry, Rockdale, and Newton counties, and part of Spalding county.  The result is a district that is 46% black to 41% White, and Voted for Bush by a few thousand votes in 2004 according to this map:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

Not that this would actually be useful to Republicans in the future, as this part of Georgia was probably the Biggest swing towards Obama of any region in the country, as it would have gone to him with somewhere close to 65% of the vote, but still.  Are the South Atlanta Suburbs famous for Black Republicans or something?

No, the area is just experiencing very rapid growth among its minority population. Take a look a the shift in demographics since 2000.

Clayton County:
2000: 34.94% White, 51.08% Black, 7.50% Hispanic, 4.52% Asian, 0.23% Native American, 1.38% Other
2008: 20.03% White, 61.55% Black, 11.65% Hispanic, 4.99% Asian, 0.28% Native American, 1.50% Other.

Henry County:
2000: 80.06% White, 14.61% Black, 2.26% Hispanic, 1.77% Asian, 0.21% Native American, 1.10% Other.
2008: 58.13% White, 32.35% Black, 5.19% Hispanic, 2.75% Asian, 0.21% Native American, 1.38% Other.

Rockdale County:
2000: 72.69% White, 18.07% Black, 5.96% Hispanic, 1.96% Asian, 0.24% Native American, 1.07% Other.
2008: 46.79% White, 39.83% Black, 9.84% Hispanic, 2.06% Asian, 0.22% Native American, 1.26% Other.

Newton County:
2000:  74.20% White, 22.08% Black, 1.87% Hispanic, 0.73% Asian, 0.21% Native American, 0.91% Other
2008: 57.58% White, 36.26% Black, 3.81% Hispanic, 1.02% Asian, 0.18% Native American, 1.15% Other

The four counties combined:
2000: 56.39% White, 33.73% Black, 5.28% Hispanic, 3.00% Asian, 0.22% Native American, 1.38% Other.
2008: 40.47% White, 46.26% Black, 8.31% Hispanic, 3.34% Asian, 0.24% Native American, 1.38% Other.

The minority population is growing so fast that the accompanying political transformation is just as rapid.
I hate to be this pedantic (but I will be anyway) but you have the other % in 2000 wrong.
Other than that, interesting numbers.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #901 on: September 14, 2010, 10:05:49 PM »

Okay, I think I just found the Holy Grail of Redistricting--The Black Plurality, Republican-voting District.  In Georgia, using a 14-district plan with the new Population estimates, make a district that contains Clayton, Henry, Rockdale, and Newton counties, and part of Spalding county.  The result is a district that is 46% black to 41% White, and Voted for Bush by a few thousand votes in 2004 according to this map:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

Not that this would actually be useful to Republicans in the future, as this part of Georgia was probably the Biggest swing towards Obama of any region in the country, as it would have gone to him with somewhere close to 65% of the vote, but still.  Are the South Atlanta Suburbs famous for Black Republicans or something?

No, the area is just experiencing very rapid growth among its minority population. Take a look a the shift in demographics since 2000.

Clayton County:
2000: 34.94% White, 51.08% Black, 7.50% Hispanic, 4.52% Asian, 0.23% Native American, 1.38% Other
2008: 20.03% White, 61.55% Black, 11.65% Hispanic, 4.99% Asian, 0.28% Native American, 1.50% Other.

Henry County:
2000: 80.06% White, 14.61% Black, 2.26% Hispanic, 1.77% Asian, 0.21% Native American, 1.10% Other.
2008: 58.13% White, 32.35% Black, 5.19% Hispanic, 2.75% Asian, 0.21% Native American, 1.38% Other.

Rockdale County:
2000: 72.69% White, 18.07% Black, 5.96% Hispanic, 1.96% Asian, 0.24% Native American, 1.07% Other.
2008: 46.79% White, 39.83% Black, 9.84% Hispanic, 2.06% Asian, 0.22% Native American, 1.26% Other.

Newton County:
2000:  74.20% White, 22.08% Black, 1.87% Hispanic, 0.73% Asian, 0.21% Native American, 0.91% Other
2008: 57.58% White, 36.26% Black, 3.81% Hispanic, 1.02% Asian, 0.18% Native American, 1.15% Other

The four counties combined:
2000: 56.39% White, 33.73% Black, 5.28% Hispanic, 3.00% Asian, 0.22% Native American, 1.38% Other.
2008: 40.47% White, 46.26% Black, 8.31% Hispanic, 3.34% Asian, 0.24% Native American, 1.38% Other.

The minority population is growing so fast that the accompanying political transformation is just as rapid.
I hate to be this pedantic (but I will be anyway) but you have the other % in 2000 wrong.
Other than that, interesting numbers.

Thanks. Fixed.
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Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)
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« Reply #902 on: September 14, 2010, 10:25:13 PM »

Just to show the rapidness of the political transformation... Clinton won Clayton County, GA 45-41 in 1992. By 2000, Gore won it 65-33. And in 2008, Obama won it 83-17. Similar is now happening in Henry, Newton and Rockdale Counties, and also in nearby Douglas, Cobb and Gwinnett Counties.

During the 1990's Clayton County experienced one of the largest (if not THE largest) increases in minority population in the nation. In 1990, Clayton County was 71.30% White-- that percentage was more than halved by 2000.
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BRTD
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« Reply #903 on: September 19, 2010, 01:13:54 PM »

It is possible, btw, to draw a majority-minority CD in Wisconsin. It looks hideous, though, because the Milwaukee ghettos have to be connected via very thin strips with high-minority areas of Racine and Kenosha.

I tried to get a seat as low white as possible, and got one to 42% white.
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ag
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« Reply #904 on: September 19, 2010, 04:14:43 PM »

It is possible, btw, to draw a majority-minority CD in Wisconsin. It looks hideous, though, because the Milwaukee ghettos have to be connected via very thin strips with high-minority areas of Racine and Kenosha.

I tried to get a seat as low white as possible, and got one to 42% white.

I got it to 41% white without much trouble. I think, 48% white is possible without Racine and Kenosha, all just from 1 county (simply try to include every precinct in and around Millwaukee w/ 75% or less white (for contiguity, a few 80%-white and over precincts will go in).
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BRTD
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« Reply #905 on: September 20, 2010, 07:32:40 PM »

Here's a map of my seat:



And yeah I bet it can be done in just Milwaukee county.
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BRTD
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« Reply #906 on: September 20, 2010, 10:27:51 PM »

Actually I just had a similar thought to muon, what about South Carolina? 7x0.3=2.1. Blacks would be "entitled" to a second seat with one gained. Anyone drawn an SC map with two majority black districts?
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Dgov
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« Reply #907 on: September 20, 2010, 10:35:33 PM »

Actually I just had a similar thought to muon, what about South Carolina? 7x0.3=2.1. Blacks would be "entitled" to a second seat with one gained. Anyone drawn an SC map with two majority black districts?

Some really ugly ones.  You have to dive into NC-1 levels of district drawing to get two districts like that in South Carolina, as the Black Voters aren't all that concentrated outside of the black belt, and even then there are still pockets of whites.
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muon2
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« Reply #908 on: September 21, 2010, 01:01:19 PM »

Actually I just had a similar thought to muon, what about South Carolina? 7x0.3=2.1. Blacks would be "entitled" to a second seat with one gained. Anyone drawn an SC map with two majority black districts?

Some really ugly ones.  You have to dive into NC-1 levels of district drawing to get two districts like that in South Carolina, as the Black Voters aren't all that concentrated outside of the black belt, and even then there are still pockets of whites.

Here's the version I put together a year ago. Both CD-6 (teal) and CD-7 (grey) have just over 50% black population, I don't think they look all that bad if you saw them in isolation.

For me the worst looking districts are the coastal ones. There's too much population for just one district so Charleston gets split between CDs 1 (blue) and 2 (green), and CD2 has to snake down long the GA line and around the Hilton Head corner to get there.

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BRTD
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« Reply #909 on: September 22, 2010, 11:39:10 PM »
« Edited: September 27, 2010, 04:29:09 PM by muon2 »

You can move it if you find that one more appropriate.

Moderator's note: I've moved it to the US House Redistricting: Virginia thread, but I've titled the relocated posts Virginia Redistricting for Incumbent Protection so readers can track their origin.
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BRTD
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« Reply #910 on: September 30, 2010, 07:07:37 PM »

In case Minnesota doesn't lose a seat here's my map that could cleanse us of Bachmann:



The new sixth isn't exactly a Democratic district but there is no way Bachmann could win in it as it consists of the areas in her district that currently vote against her combined with some more Democratic territory.
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RI
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« Reply #911 on: October 02, 2010, 02:32:41 AM »

Does anyone know if it's possible to make a third Asian-majority district in California, specifically by using the Asian populations near and in the San Francisco/Daly City area? I've been playing around with it, and so far I've gotten districts with about 46%/47% Asian with full population with just those areas. In another version, I took in some Asian areas in Oakland as well, and I got it up to 49% Asian. It might be possible with some finesse to make one that reaches 50%, if someone wants to give it a try, though it probably won't be pretty.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #912 on: October 04, 2010, 01:17:53 AM »

think this would warrant a lawsuit?


The blue district in the west is 51% white / 47% black
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BRTD
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« Reply #913 on: October 04, 2010, 01:31:14 AM »

That'd be a VRA violation, yes.
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Dgov
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« Reply #914 on: October 04, 2010, 06:41:05 AM »

Does anyone know how many California districts are VRA-protected for African Americans? (9th, 33rd, 35th, and 37th).  None are black plurality, let alone black majority districts, but they reliably elect African American congressmen in a state with a not-insignificant African American population.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #915 on: October 04, 2010, 08:18:34 AM »

Does anyone know how many California districts are VRA-protected for African Americans? (9th, 33rd, 35th, and 37th).  None are black plurality, let alone black majority districts, but they reliably elect African American congressmen in a state with a not-insignificant African American population.

None of them.
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BRTD
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« Reply #916 on: October 04, 2010, 10:08:06 AM »

Does anyone know how many California districts are VRA-protected for African Americans? (9th, 33rd, 35th, and 37th).  None are black plurality, let alone black majority districts, but they reliably elect African American congressmen in a state with a not-insignificant African American population.

None of them.

Correct. California statewide is not covered by the VRA.

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Verily
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« Reply #917 on: October 04, 2010, 11:02:02 AM »

New Hampshire? Why?

Also interesting that the Jamaica district is not VRA-protected. Better gerrymandering in East Queens, here we come.
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BRTD
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« Reply #918 on: October 04, 2010, 11:20:07 AM »


I have absolutely no clue. Also no clue why two rather random townships in Michigan are covered as well. The counties in Florida seem pretty random as well and not the type of places I'd expect to be covered.

Also interesting that the Jamaica district is not VRA-protected. Better gerrymandering in East Queens, here we come.

I don't think county coverage affects drawing maps. It just means they have to adhere to the other federal regulations for areas covered by the VRA. Personally I think NYC should be "bailed out" by now (exempted, that's the case with those striped counties in Virginia) since it's obvious they won't be trying to disenfranchise any minority voters and the regulations require federal approval to change anything about elections. In other words if a voting place is being moved next door or across the street this can't pass unlike the DoJ approves it. I understand why it was set up that way but it's clearly not needed in some locations anymore.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #919 on: October 04, 2010, 12:32:38 PM »

Yeah, I think two issues are being confused.

Section 2 of the VRA has various general requirements that voting procedures not discriminate against minorities. There have been various interpretations of the exact consequences of this for district drawing, but this section is the basic source of the idea that minorities get their own districts.

Section 5, meanwhile, requires certain jurisdictions which have a history of Section 2 violations or other racial discrimination to "preclear" any changes to their voting procedures with the federal justice department to ensure they don't discriminate against minorities.

BRTD's map is a map of areas which require preclearance under Section 5. I have no idea why those New Hampshire towns are in there; presumably they have some history of discriminatory voting laws from way back when. It's only a small handful of towns, though, not all the counties in pink: the map uses the term "township coverage" to mean just "at least one township in this county".
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Bacon King
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« Reply #920 on: October 04, 2010, 01:28:10 PM »

The New Hampshire townships are probably on there just for having less than 50% of the voting age population participate in one of the 1960 or 1964 Presidential elections, which I know is why the California counties are covered.
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BRTD
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« Reply #921 on: October 04, 2010, 02:20:17 PM »

If that's the reason it might be time to let them off the hook by now.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #922 on: October 04, 2010, 11:44:43 PM »

There are 10 townships in New Hampshire that are covered, including one that has no population.

The counties in New York and California, and the townships in New Hampshire were caught under a provision that if there was a literacy test and less than 50% of the CVAP voted in the 1968 presidential election they were covered.

New Hampshire's literacy test had not been enforced, but was still on the books.  Since elections in New Hampshire are based on towns, the percentage test was also applied to each town.

The 4 counties in California were all tied to military bases (some of which have been BRAC'ed.  Military were counted in the population, though relatively few voted locally.  In one county, the census bureau may have miscalculated the CVAP, by projecting all adult population growth from a census to have been citizens, and the county barely missed 50%.

In California, the state Supreme Court had already declared the literacy test to be unconstitutional, and it was officially repealed a month after the specified trigger date.

The two townships in Michigan were caught under the language provisions, both due to a large Spanish-speaking population coupled with low voting participation.
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BRTD
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« Reply #923 on: October 06, 2010, 10:48:21 AM »

The New Hampshire townships have a total population of about 16,000.

The two in Michigan includes one that's about 30% Hispanic (kind of odd, it's in the middle of nowhere and the county population is only about 5% Hispanic), the other is just outside of Saginaw and is less than 10% Hispanic but majority black.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #924 on: October 08, 2010, 12:26:21 AM »

I redrew WA's districts in a way that ( I think) makes it a little bit more competitive.



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