Dave's Redistricting App

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Dave is supposed to be releasing a new version of the app today. All the old maps should still work with it, but it should have some improved features, I guess.

That said, here's another nonpartisan map: Ohio (16 districts).



I managed to (just barely) preserve the black majority district without it plunging into Akron. On this one, the Dems would have five safe districts: the blue, green, red, and yellow NE ones, the new purple Columbus district. Republicans would have no trouble holding the magenta district, light blue Columbus suburban district, light purple and brown Cincinnati suburban districts, light green NW district, and probably the teal Erie to Holmes district. In addition, the pink Dayton district would probably favor Republicans, although not overwhelmingly so. Similarly, the orange Toledo-area district would still lean to the Democrats, but not as strongly as before. That leaves the Cincinnati district, which would remain a swing district, the purple NE district, which gets pushed towards the Dems but also remains swingy, and the grey mid-eastern district, which would probably lean to the Republicans but not by a large margin. So, a 7R-6D map with three swing districts.

[Bacon King]

Interesting GA map.

Something like the red district will probably actually exist- there's been a big call in the northwest to get their own district, and IIRC the chairman of the redistricting committee in the State House is from up there and has Congressional ambitions...

The neon green district would make me feel really bad for John Barrow. He lived in Athens (Clarke County) when he first got elected to the district, then when the GOP did their mid-decade redistricting that cut Athens out so Barrow moved to Savannah (Chatham County). Now your map takes Savannah out of the district too so poor Barrow would have to move a second time in six years!

What's the race breakdown of Bishop's district (goldish brown)? I feel that he could quite easily lose it. In fact, if he had that district last week I'm pretty sure he would have lost.

Demographic change would definitely make the Cobb and Gwinnett districts in your map competitive for the Democrats after a few years (which is exactly why we won't see something resembling those districts after the GOP actually redistricts!) Cobb county was 44.5% Obama in 2008, and from eyeballing it I'd say Obama probably got around 46-47% in your Gwinnett district.

The only district I really don't like is the pink district. It looks like a hodgepodge of different areas without any central community of interest. Walton and Oconee are super-white wealthy outer suburbia, while Rockdale, Newton, and Henry (to a lesser extent) are middle class areas with sizable minority communities. Bibb County is the city of Macon and doesn't fit in with the Atlanta suburbs at all (even though that happens in the current districts, lol) while the counties in the middle of the district have little in common with either Macon or the suburb areas.

Still, nice map.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The brown district is 51% white, 43% black. The borders didn't actually change much, now that I look at it; Brooks, Dooly, Crisp, and Lowndes Counties got removed, and Peach, Harris, and parts of Muscogee and Colquitt got added.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Version 2.0 of the app has been released. For those of you with bookmarks directly to the app, you'll need to change it to this URL:

http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/davesredistricting2.0.aspx

It's certainly an interesting change, but it'll take some getting used to.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Version 2.0 of the app has been released. For those of you with bookmarks directly to the app, you'll need to change it to this URL:

http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/davesredistricting2.0.aspx

It's certainly an interesting change, but it'll take some getting used to.

Just started it. I haven't yet tried to do anything with it, however. The first thing I noticed was the use of Bing Maps. Thank God they're using the old color scheme; I hate the blue scheme used now.

[Verily]

The brown district is 51% white, 43% black. The borders didn't actually change much, now that I look at it; Brooks, Dooly, Crisp, and Lowndes Counties got removed, and Peach, Harris, and parts of Muscogee and Colquitt got added.

It's possible to make it majority black. Although it isn't majority now, after his scare I think Bishop may ask the Obama administration/DOJ to pressure Georgia to make it so. And I think the Georgia Republicans wouldn't mind shoring up the mostly unbeatable Bishop to ensure that no new Dixiecrats pop up in South Georgia.

[Padfoot]

Version 2.0 of the app has been released. For those of you with bookmarks directly to the app, you'll need to change it to this URL:

http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/davesredistricting2.0.aspx

It's certainly an interesting change, but it'll take some getting used to.

I'm not sure I really see what's better about this version.  It seems much harder to use than the old version.  There are no city lines anymore and all of the colors are too muted.  Its also impossible to see anything if you're trying to look at the entire state and you have all the voting districts turned on.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Version 2.0 of the app has been released. For those of you with bookmarks directly to the app, you'll need to change it to this URL:

http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/davesredistricting2.0.aspx

It's certainly an interesting change, but it'll take some getting used to.

I'm not sure I really see what's better about this version.  It seems much harder to use than the old version.  There are no city lines anymore and all of the colors are too muted.  Its also impossible to see anything if you're trying to look at the entire state and you have all the voting districts turned on.

And turning off voting districts also turns off congressional districts.

[Torie]

Having struggled with the new version of the application in my exercise of packing as many Pittsburgh area Dems into one district as possible, what you have to do, is keep turning the partisan data button on and off, and be careful that you have turned off the coloring button. So you look at your district that you have colored so far, look at adjacent areas with the partisan button on, and then slowly expand your district, either with both the partisan and color button on (territory not in your district will then color, while that already within it will not), or with the partisan button off (if you have memorized the shape of the precincts that you want to append).

After you have added your next handful of precincts, if you have not already, you then turn the partisan button  off again, and make sure that you got it right, and then you repeat the process, for the next batch of precincts. Where you see the break points on the map, where say in the case of Pittsburgh, you see precincts GOP enough that you don't want them in the Dem pack CD, you put those precincts  in an adjacent district in another color, as guideposts which help channel how you are going to expand the district that you are working on.  

You really need to get good at turning off the color button, or your mouse will wreak havoc, undoing much of the work that you have already done.  It's a learning curve, no doubt about it.

[Badger]

Interesting map, JL. A couple comments/questions:

Would the green Cinci district really be that much a swing district? At first glance it appears a lot of GOP voting area from the current OH-1 has been removed for a more Cinci-dominated seat. What's the likely PVI?

I'm not sure that magenta version of OH-2 is quite that strong GOP. Although the new territory added still generally tends Republican, other than Highland and Gallia the PVI of the added areas are notably closer to even than most of the current OH-2. Schmidt could have increased trouble holding this district (though of course anyone but Jean Schmidt should make either version of OH-2 safe GOP).


Any chance Montgomery and Clark counties could be mostly combined for a swingish Dayton-Springfield district? Both counties now have a slight GOP PVI lean I think (or about even with Montgomery). I suspect both counties combined would be too many voters for a single district, so it may depend on which GOP suburbs would/could be cut to bring the district down to appropriate numbers. I'm wondering if that can be done to include both cities and still maintain a competitive district?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It's hard to say what the numbers for the Cincinnati district would be, since there's no precinct-level breakdown handy. I guess, on second thought, it would probably lean to the Dems.

The magenta district, eyeballing it, would probably have voted in the mid-50s for McCain. No problem for a Republican who's not Jean Schmidt to hold, and even Schmidt has quieted down (for the most part).

From a competitiveness standpoint, a Dayton/Springfield district would be more logical, but it would go against my nonpartisan, "communities of interest" approach, since presumably western Greene County is suburban Dayton.

[CatoMinor]

Tried making a map that if the GOP had great candidates in a wave year might get 2 or 3.

 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's basically just the current map with a very ugly CD 7. Just refer to the Swing State Project's hypothetical Republican gerrymander of Massachusetts, it contains one McCain district and one barely Obama district.

[Linus Van Pelt]

So, I tried clicking on the new version of the App, having only used the original version, and a pop-up box came up saying I needed to download an updated version of Silverlight, so I clicked on the link, downloaded the new version of Silverlight, and installed it - or at least, installed it as far as I can tell, since it said "the software was successfully installed" at the last step of the installer - but now both the new version and the original App don't work - instead when I click on either link, all I get is a light blue icon in the top left telling me... to install Microsoft Silverlight!



Any thoughts from the more IT-savvy out there?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So, I tried clicking on the new version of the App, having only used the original version, and a pop-up box came up saying I needed to download an updated version of Silverlight, so I clicked on the link, downloaded the new version of Silverlight, and installed it - or at least, installed it as far as I can tell, since it said "the software was successfully installed" at the last step of the installer - but now both the new version and the original App don't work - instead when I click on either link, all I get is a light blue icon in the top left telling me... to install Microsoft Silverlight!



Any thoughts from the more IT-savvy out there?

What browser are you using?

[Linus Van Pelt]

So, I tried clicking on the new version of the App, having only used the original version, and a pop-up box came up saying I needed to download an updated version of Silverlight, so I clicked on the link, downloaded the new version of Silverlight, and installed it - or at least, installed it as far as I can tell, since it said "the software was successfully installed" at the last step of the installer - but now both the new version and the original App don't work - instead when I click on either link, all I get is a light blue icon in the top left telling me... to install Microsoft Silverlight!



Any thoughts from the more IT-savvy out there?

What browser are you using?

Firefox, though the same thing happens when I try it with Safari.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The original running seamless in IE for me is one of IE's few redeeming features (and one of only two things I use it for. The other watching on Netflix Watch Instantly.) The new one works fine on Opera though, which is my main browser.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I just re-installed the same version of Silverlight, and now it's working. So who knows.

[nclib]

BTW, this Dave isn't Dave Leip, is he?

[Linus Van Pelt]

BTW, this Dave isn't Dave Leip, is he?

No, this is one Dave Bradlee.

[nclib]

BTW, this Dave isn't Dave Leip, is he?

No, this is one Dave Bradlee.

Yeah, I thought it wasn't Leip, but some posters have referred to it as "Leip's Redistricting App".

[Free Palestine]

Oooh, version 2.0 is smexy.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

So, I tried clicking on the new version of the App, having only used the original version, and a pop-up box came up saying I needed to download an updated version of Silverlight, so I clicked on the link, downloaded the new version of Silverlight, and installed it - or at least, installed it as far as I can tell, since it said "the software was successfully installed" at the last step of the installer - but now both the new version and the original App don't work - instead when I click on either link, all I get is a light blue icon in the top left telling me... to install Microsoft Silverlight!



Any thoughts from the more IT-savvy out there?

What browser are you using?

Firefox, though the same thing happens when I try it with Safari.

It works perfectly with IE (even version 6!)

It could be this, however:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

BTW I've come to hate version 2.0 of this application, and have returned to using only version 1.0.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I find the new version much easier to use when coming up with nonpartisan maps; being able to see the actual lay of the land makes the "communities of interest" standard easier to apply.