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Nhoj
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« Reply #300 on: December 13, 2009, 04:28:26 pm »
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Dave's added partisan data to New York now; you have to click the "Use Test Data" button before loading the map to get it to work. If you want to create a 57-42 McCain district in Brooklyn, now you can.

Where is the button?
Should be on the right side of the page just below help and about.
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« Reply #301 on: December 13, 2009, 07:18:39 pm »
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tnx
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« Reply #302 on: December 21, 2009, 05:44:07 pm »
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I had put together a map of MD a couple of years ago based on 2010 projections. I adapted it to the 2008 data on the App to get the following map.



The districts are all within 100 persons of the ideal number, and were designed to minimize the number of split counties. There are Two majority Black districts. Using the voting data on the App, here's how they come out with the percentage of the two-party 2008 presidential vote:

CD-1 (blue) R+16
CD-2 (green) R+9
CD-3 (purple) R+3
CD-4 (red) D+41
CD-5 (yellow, 67% Black) D+73
CD-6 (teal) D+2
CD-7 (gray, 63% Black) D+76
CD-8 (lavender) D+48


This is a great Republican gerrymander of Maryland. I would make CD-01 less Republican just to make the three remaining Republican-leaning/swing districts even more Republican.
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« Reply #303 on: December 21, 2009, 09:53:05 pm »
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That somewhat reminds me of the Maryland map that I just created.
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« Reply #304 on: December 21, 2009, 10:05:26 pm »
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District 1 (blue): Obama 42%, McCain 56%
District 2 (green): Obama 47%, McCain 51%
District 3 (violet): Obama 54%, McCain 43%
District 4 (red): Obama 87%, McCain 12%. 65% black.
District 5 (yellow): Obama 72%, McCain 27%
District 6 (teal): Obama 42%, McCain 56%
District 7 (gray): Obama 86%, McCain 12%. 63% black.
District 8 (lavender): Obama 72%, McCain 27%
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« Reply #305 on: December 21, 2009, 10:28:08 pm »


I had put together a map of MD a couple of years ago based on 2010 projections. I adapted it to the 2008 data on the App to get the following map.



The districts are all within 100 persons of the ideal number, and were designed to minimize the number of split counties. There are two majority Black districts. Using the voting data on the App, here's how they come out with the percentage of the two-party 2008 presidential vote:

CD-1 (blue) R+16
CD-2 (green) R+9
CD-3 (purple) R+3
CD-4 (red) D+41
CD-5 (yellow, 67% Black) D+73
CD-6 (teal) D+2
CD-7 (gray, 63% Black) D+76
CD-8 (lavender) D+48


This is a great Republican gerrymander of Maryland. I would make CD-01 less Republican just to make the three remaining Republican-leaning/swing districts even more Republican.

The combination of majority-minority districts and minimizing county splits tends to help the GOP. I could have gone for a true pro-GOP gerrymander, but that wasn't the goal of the map. It was nice to see my CD-3 and 6 be highly competitive (partisan diff < 5) and CD-2 be reasonably competitive (< 10).

Note that TC's map below still has a heavy GOP lean in district 1, since it's hard to change it a lot without crossing the Chesapeake at Annapolis. Note that from a GOP view he's sacrificed the suburban Baltimore district to a D+11 while strengthening CD-6 to R+14 so it looks more like an incumbent protection map.



District 1 (blue): Obama 42%, McCain 56%
District 2 (green): Obama 47%, McCain 51%
District 3 (violet): Obama 54%, McCain 43%
District 4 (red): Obama 87%, McCain 12%. 65% black.
District 5 (yellow): Obama 72%, McCain 27%
District 6 (teal): Obama 42%, McCain 56%
District 7 (gray): Obama 86%, McCain 12%. 63% black.
District 8 (lavender): Obama 72%, McCain 27%
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« Reply #306 on: December 23, 2009, 10:58:50 am »
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I know that Maryland is unlikely to gain a district in 2010 but I decided to try it out anyway.



District 1 (blue): Obama 41%, McCain 57%
District 2 (green): Obama 48%, McCain 51%
District 3 (violet): Obama 87%, McCain 13%. 66% black.
District 4 (red): Obama 45%, McCain 52%
District 5 (yellow): Obama 81%, McCain 18%. 40% white and 36% black.
District 6 (teal): Obama 40%, McCain 58%
District 7 (gray): Obama 89%, McCain 10%. 68% black.
District 8 (lavender): Obama 66%, McCain 32%
District 9: Obama 70%, McCain 29%
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« Reply #307 on: December 23, 2009, 05:47:18 pm »
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Here is my North Carolina Map, with 13 CDs.

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« Reply #308 on: December 24, 2009, 05:19:07 pm »
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Republican gerrymander of Indiana:



IN-01 (blue, Pete Visclosky - D) - Took LaPorte County form neighboring IN-02 and dropped the Republican-leaning counties in the south of the district. Easily went for Obama by about a 2-1 margin.
IN-02 (green, Joe Donnelly - D) - Shifted the district east; basically the only old parts are St. Joseph County and Elkhart. Went from 54-45 Obama to about 51-48 McCain. Donnelly might have a shot at holding this one, but it would be much tougher.
IN-03 (purple, Mark Souder - R) - Remains centered in Fort Wayne, but the rest of the district goes south now. Formerly a 56-43 McCain district; my rough estimate is about a 55-44 McCain margin now.
IN-04 (red, Steve Buyer - R) - Shifts from the Indianapolis suburbs to the north central part of the state, but I scooped out about half of Tippecanoe County to compensate for losing those Republican suburbs. Another formerly 56-43 McCain district, I'm guessing it's about the same now, maybe a point less Republican.
IN-05 (yellow, Dan Burton - R) - Shrinks down to mostly the northern Indy suburbs, although I did add in part of the aforementioned Tippecanoe. Was 59-40 McCain, I'd say the margin's more like 57-42 now.
IN-06 (teal, Mike Pence - R) - Stretchy! Instead of comprising the mid-eastern part of the state, it goes from Muncie, around the outskirts of the Indy area, up to the northwest end of the state. Was 53-46 McCain, actually I think it's a little more Republican now, around 55-44 McCain.
IN-07 (grey, Andre Carson - D) - Pretty much unchanged, although slightly bigger, easily high-60s for Obama.
IN-08 (light purple, Brad Ellsworth - D) - Interestingly-shaped to remove Bloomington from IN-09, this one now includes pretty much all the Dem-friendly territory in the southwest of the state. Formerly 51-47 McCain, this flips to around 53-46 Obama.
IN-09 (light blue, Baron Hill - D) - Loses Baron's most favorable territory and adds in some Republican parts on the west and northeast sides. Was 50-49 McCain, now a whopping 58-41 McCain.
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« Reply #309 on: December 25, 2009, 12:12:15 am »
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For fun, here's a detailed breakdown on a Democratic gerrymander for New York (eliminating Pete King while keeping all Democrats safe-ish and solidifying holds on the marginal upstate seats).

NY-01 (Suffolk Outer): 53% Obama, 47% McCain
NY-02 (Suffolk Inner): 54% Obama, 45% McCain
NY-03 (Nassau North and Suffolk North): 54% Obama, 45% McCain
NY-04 (Nassau South): 56% Obama, 44% McCain
NY-05 (Queens Southeast and Nassau Central): 76% Obama, 24% McCain; 50% black

The final district is the key to this gerrymander; the very Republican areas of central Nassau County get combined with the black areas of Jamaica, Laurelton and other parts of Southeast Queens, which far outvote them in NY-05 and leave the rest of the Long Island districts at or above Obama's national numbers. King probably could survive in NY-03 (it's not possible to draw the districts in such a way as to guarantee his defeat), but he would be much more vulnerable.



NY-06 (Queens South Central and Brooklyn South): 63% Obama, 36% McCain
NY-07 (Queens East, Bronx Southeast and West and Manhattan Northwest): 81% Obama, 18% McCain; 52% Hispanic
NY-08 (Queens East Central and Bronx South): 88% Obama, 12% McCain; 50% Hispanic
NY-09 (Queens Central and Northwest): 71% Obama, 28% McCain
NY-10 (Queens North Central and Brooklyn Northeast): 85% Obama, 15% McCain; 57% Hispanic
NY-11 (Brooklyn Southeast): 79% Obama, 21% McCain; 51% black
NY-12 (Brooklyn Central): 82% Obama, 18% McCain, 51% black
NY-13 (Staten Island and Brooklyn Southwest): 52% Obama, 47% McCain
NY-14 (Brooklyn Northwest and Manhattan South): 87% Obama, 12% McCain
NY-15 (Manhattan Central): 82% Obama, 17% McCain
NY-16 (Manhattan North and Bronx Northeast): 94% Obama, 6% McCain; 50% black

Some shuffling around of the Hispanic districts makes the Staten Island district a little bit more Democratic by including some ultra-Hispanic areas near Greenwood. The two Brooklyn black districts share the ultra-Republican areas of South-central Brooklyn between them, diluting it completely. A new black-majority district, NY-16, is created by combining Harlem with the Northwest Bronx and the city of Mount Vernon; this is sort of Rangel's district rejigged.

NY-07 and NY-08 are nasty pieces of work, drawn in that way to create an extra Hispanic district. Originally, I had the South Bronx and Washington Heights together, and then the Southwest Bronx and the Queens areas together, but that made a 66% Hispanic and a 36% Hispanic district (more or less the way it is now) when two majority Hispanic districts were definitely possible. Of course, NE Queens residents could claim disenfranchisement on this map because they do not form a majority in either district. Partisan considerations don't really matter as even the 36% Hispanic district was only 22% white (substantially Asian and black, obviously) and something around 70+% for Obama.

Only in Manhattan can a 65% white district be 82% for Obama and also be the wealthiest CD (probably by far) in the country. NY-15 is basically the Upper East and Upper West Sides, although it did add East Harlem for population and to keep the Hispanics out of the new black majority district, NY-16.



NY-17 (Westchester East and Bronx East Central): 60% Obama, 39% McCain
NY-18 (Westchester West, Bronx Northwest and Rockland): 59% Obama, 40% McCain
NY-19 (Hudson Valley West): 54% Obama, 45% McCain
NY-20 (Hudson Valley East): 54% Obama, 44% McCain

Not a whole lot to say. Putnam County is actually not cracked on this map; every town in the Hudson Valley East district voted for Obama, while the areas in the Westchester district voted for McCain. Eliot Engel is pretty much the only Democrat who becomes substantially less safe, but 59% Obama is nothing to scoff at.



NY-21 (Albany and Schenectady): 56% Obama, 42% McCain
NY-22 (Adirondacks): 53% Obama, 45% McCain
NY-23 (Utica and Syracuse East): 54% Obama, 44% McCain
NY-24 (Ithaca, Binghampton and Syracuse South): 54% Obama, 45% McCain

Pretty boring, not much going on. NY-22 obviously has a huge Republican registration advantage but is stronger for Obama than the previous NY-23 and thus shouldn't be too hard for Owens to hold in the near-term.



NY-25 (Rochester East and Syracuse West): 57% Obama, 42% McCain
NY-26 (Rochester West and Buffalo North): 58% Obama, 41% McCain
NY-27 (Southern Tier): 43% Obama, 56% McCain
NY-28 (Buffalo South): 56% Obama, 42% McCain

The Republicans are packed into NY-27, the only McCain-voting district in the state, which is now very safe for Lee. It's pretty much impossible to get rid of him. You could try, but the resultant map would put all four districts in danger for the Democrats (around 51-52% Obama), really not worth it. Every Democratic district in the state was drawn to be more Democratic than the nation as a whole except the outer Suffolk and Staten Island districts, where that just wasn't possible geographically, and doing any districts less than that is a huge risk.



Maps to be inserted in a moment. Bah, the maps aren't working. Anyway, descriptions should suffice. Images are now showing up. Enjoy.
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Bo
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« Reply #310 on: December 25, 2009, 12:28:12 am »
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Republican gerrymander of Indiana:



IN-01 (blue, Pete Visclosky - D) - Took LaPorte County form neighboring IN-02 and dropped the Republican-leaning counties in the south of the district. Easily went for Obama by about a 2-1 margin.
IN-02 (green, Joe Donnelly - D) - Shifted the district east; basically the only old parts are St. Joseph County and Elkhart. Went from 54-45 Obama to about 51-48 McCain. Donnelly might have a shot at holding this one, but it would be much tougher.
IN-03 (purple, Mark Souder - R) - Remains centered in Fort Wayne, but the rest of the district goes south now. Formerly a 56-43 McCain district; my rough estimate is about a 55-44 McCain margin now.
IN-04 (red, Steve Buyer - R) - Shifts from the Indianapolis suburbs to the north central part of the state, but I scooped out about half of Tippecanoe County to compensate for losing those Republican suburbs. Another formerly 56-43 McCain district, I'm guessing it's about the same now, maybe a point less Republican.
IN-05 (yellow, Dan Burton - R) - Shrinks down to mostly the northern Indy suburbs, although I did add in part of the aforementioned Tippecanoe. Was 59-40 McCain, I'd say the margin's more like 57-42 now.
IN-06 (teal, Mike Pence - R) - Stretchy! Instead of comprising the mid-eastern part of the state, it goes from Muncie, around the outskirts of the Indy area, up to the northwest end of the state. Was 53-46 McCain, actually I think it's a little more Republican now, around 55-44 McCain.
IN-07 (grey, Andre Carson - D) - Pretty much unchanged, although slightly bigger, easily high-60s for Obama.
IN-08 (light purple, Brad Ellsworth - D) - Interestingly-shaped to remove Bloomington from IN-09, this one now includes pretty much all the Dem-friendly territory in the southwest of the state. Formerly 51-47 McCain, this flips to around 53-46 Obama.
IN-09 (light blue, Baron Hill - D) - Loses Baron's most favorable territory and adds in some Republican parts on the west and northeast sides. Was 50-49 McCain, now a whopping 58-41 McCain.

Johnny, that is a great map, but I have one suggestion. I would give Tippecanoe County to Ellsworth (since it voted for Obama by a large margin) and give some rural McCain countries in southwestern Indiana that previously belonged to IN-08 to IN-09. That would make Ellsworth's district more solidly Democratic and allow Republicans to make the remaining six districts even more Republican (just in case to prevent them from losing any seats even in a very bad year like 2006 or 2008).
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« Reply #311 on: January 06, 2010, 03:46:30 pm »
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Here is (most of) Los Angeles County, if the House were to be reapportioned to one representative for every fifty thousand people.



Movement is really hard in the program - it would be great if you could move simply by center-clicking and dragging.  Also, it would be nice if saving/loading was less complicated.
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« Reply #312 on: January 06, 2010, 09:43:32 pm »

Movement is really hard in the program - it would be great if you could move simply by center-clicking and dragging.  Also, it would be nice if saving/loading was less complicated.

It is awkward to use compared to commercial redistricting tools. Beside the unusual pan and zoom controls, polygon captures are missing and that would speed up the task enormously. An undo would also be of great use.
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« Reply #313 on: January 07, 2010, 01:51:49 pm »
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Maine, with twelve districts, each with approximately a hundred thousand people.

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« Reply #314 on: January 07, 2010, 07:59:02 pm »
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That island district is really wacky. There's no way to get from Mt Desert Island to the rest of the district, but there are roads connecting Mt Desert Island to the mainland. Same goes for Deer Isle/Stonington.
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« Reply #315 on: January 08, 2010, 10:05:31 am »
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I know we were asked not to post every swing state diary map here when people can see them there on their own, but this "New York 28-0" takes the cake for treating redistricting as an abstraction. I'm actually offended that someone submitted it.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6166/#108516
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« Reply #316 on: January 08, 2010, 10:20:38 am »
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I know we were asked not to post every swing state diary map here when people can see them there on their own, but this "New York 28-0" takes the cake for treating redistricting as an abstraction. I'm actually offended that someone submitted it.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6166/#108516

That is a work of art.  Major kudos to the creator for putting parts of Buffalo into Jerry Nadler's district.
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« Reply #317 on: January 09, 2010, 01:57:38 am »
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I know we were asked not to post every swing state diary map here when people can see them there on their own, but this "New York 28-0" takes the cake for treating redistricting as an abstraction. I'm actually offended that someone submitted it.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6166/#108516

That is a work of art.  Major kudos to the creator for putting parts of Buffalo into Jerry Nadler's district.
What is up with that weird Rochester district though?

He also didn't take advantage of the Queens-Richmond and Westchester-Nassau contiguity.

BTW, NY at one time had a Kings-Richmond-Rockland district.



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« Reply #318 on: January 09, 2010, 02:01:54 am »
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Rhode Island, with ten districts.

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« Reply #319 on: January 09, 2010, 02:34:33 am »
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For fun, here's a detailed breakdown on a Democratic gerrymander for New York (eliminating Pete King while keeping all Democrats safe-ish and solidifying holds on the marginal upstate seats).

NY-01 (Suffolk Outer): 53% Obama, 47% McCain
NY-02 (Suffolk Inner): 54% Obama, 45% McCain
NY-03 (Nassau North and Suffolk North): 54% Obama, 45% McCain
NY-04 (Nassau South): 56% Obama, 44% McCain
NY-05 (Queens Southeast and Nassau Central): 76% Obama, 24% McCain; 50% black

The final district is the key to this gerrymander; the very Republican areas of central Nassau County get combined with the black areas of Jamaica, Laurelton and other parts of Southeast Queens, which far outvote them in NY-05 and leave the rest of the Long Island districts at or above Obama's national numbers. King probably could survive in NY-03 (it's not possible to draw the districts in such a way as to guarantee his defeat), but he would be much more vulnerable.




Hard to tell exactly where some of the town borders are on here, and you don't have to live in the district to run in it, but you probably don't want to have Dems run in districts they do not live in or in districts with other Democrats.  It appears you have McCarthy in the same district as Meeks, though possibly in the same district as Ackerman (depending on where exactly the community borders are.  McCarthy lives in Mineola, which is a marginal area in central nassau, just to the north of heavily Republican Garden City.  Meeks lives in heavily Democratic Far Rockaway in SE Queens, Ackerman in heavily Democratic Roslyn Estates (NW Nassau)  In this map King would actually be in NY-4, he lives in Seaford (SE Nassau).

 

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« Reply #320 on: January 09, 2010, 11:11:08 pm »

I know we were asked not to post every swing state diary map here when people can see them there on their own, but this "New York 28-0" takes the cake for treating redistricting as an abstraction. I'm actually offended that someone submitted it.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6166/#108516

I was bothered by the fact that the author of this reduced the minority levels so much in CD-15 that whites are the largest group by a significant amount, and then called it a VRA district. So I decided to retaliate with a VRA-based map that maximizes minority-majority districts.

In my map below I assume 28 districts and all are within 100 using 2008 data on the App. NYC has 8 districts with a single minority majority:

CD-16 (bright green - Bronx) 58% Hispanic.
CD-15 (orange - New York, Bronx, and some Queens) 51% Hispanic
CD-12 (blue - Kings, Queens, and a bit of New York) 51% Hispanic
CD-11 (lime green - Kings) 55% Black
CD-10 (magenta - Kings) 55% Black
CD-7 (grey - Bronx, Queens) 56% Hispanic
CD-6 (cyan - Queens, Nassau) 55% Black

and the drum roll please ...

CD-5 (yellow - Queens, New York, and Kings) 51% Asian



The majority-Asian CD-5 defines this map. It links Flushing in Queens to Chinatown in Manhattan and on to Sunset Park in Brooklyn. The other districts then work around that district. The other majority-minority districts maintain the largest group in the current CD.

I restricted the Staten Island district (CD-13) to cross into Brooklyn and that forced CD8 to run from lower Manhattan up to Yonkers, though CD-14 could have connected to Yonkers instead by crossing Central Park. On Long Island the constraints of CDs 5 and 6 forced CD3 (purple) to go from Coney Island out to Suffolk County along the Atlantic. The population shifts also caused CD-17 (dark blue-grey) to go from Westchester through Co Op City in the Bronx to cross at Throgs Neck and run along the Sound to NW Nassau.

Enjoy. Smiley
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« Reply #321 on: January 09, 2010, 11:40:58 pm »
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I know we were asked not to post every swing state diary map here when people can see them there on their own, but this "New York 28-0" takes the cake for treating redistricting as an abstraction. I'm actually offended that someone submitted it.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6166/#108516

I was bothered by the fact that the author of this reduced the minority levels so much in CD-15 that whites are the largest group by a significant amount, and then called it a VRA district. So I decided to retaliate with a VRA-based map that maximizes minority-majority districts.

In my map below I assume 28 districts and all are within 100 using 2008 data on the App. NYC has 8 districts with a single minority majority:

CD-16 (bright green - Bronx) 58% Hispanic.
CD-15 (orange - New York, Bronx, and some Queens) 51% Hispanic
CD-12 (blue - Kings, Queens, and a bit of New York) 51% Hispanic
CD-11 (lime green - Kings) 55% Black
CD-10 (magenta - Kings) 55% Black
CD-7 (grey - Bronx, Queens) 56% Hispanic
CD-6 (cyan - Queens, Nassau) 55% Black

and the drum roll please ...

CD-5 (yellow - Queens, New York, and Kings) 51% Asian



The majority-Asian CD-5 defines this map. It links Flushing in Queens to Chinatown in Manhattan and on to Sunset Park in Brooklyn. The other districts then work around that district. The other majority-minority districts maintain the largest group in the current CD.

I restricted the Staten Island district (CD-13) to cross into Brooklyn and that forced CD8 to run from lower Manhattan up to Yonkers, though CD-14 could have connected to Yonkers instead by crossing Central Park. On Long Island the constraints of CDs 5 and 6 forced CD3 (purple) to go from Coney Island out to Suffolk County along the Atlantic. The population shifts also caused CD-17 (dark blue-grey) to go from Westchester through Co Op City in the Bronx to cross at Throgs Neck and run along the Sound to NW Nassau.

Enjoy. Smiley

It's pretty cool you can make an Asian-majority district in New York. Can you see if you can make one in California?
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« Reply #322 on: January 10, 2010, 12:03:32 am »


It's pretty cool you can make an Asian-majority district in New York. Can you see if you can make one in California?

I did one on this thread a while ago, but with so many pages, I'll repeat it. The three-lobed district in San Jose is majority-Asian.

Here's a remap of CA with 53 districts using the 2008 data. All districts are within 1000 of the ideal population. There are 17 Hispanic-majority districts, 1 Asian-majority district and 1 Black-majority district. The other districts were drawn to maintain compactness and minimize county splits.



Zooming into LA:



Zooming into the Bay Area:



I'll let the local experts speculate on the partisan balance in these districts.

edit: maps modified to reflect some of the comments, including the addition of an Asian-majority district in and around San Jose, and modifying the northern part of LA county.
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« Reply #323 on: January 10, 2010, 09:57:20 pm »
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I was about to start my own map for NY, but the data for the 08 Presidential race does not seem to be loading.  Anyone know if that data is down or if I need to click something in order for it to work?
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« Reply #324 on: January 10, 2010, 10:13:28 pm »
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Smash,

Have you clicked the "test data" box before you select New York from the drop down menu?
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