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Author Topic: Dave's Redistricting App  (Read 130938 times)
Devilman88
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« Reply #550 on: March 11, 2010, 07:08:51 pm »
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I made a North Carolina Map.



(Starting from Left to Right)

CD-1(Blue): Was CD-11, Heath Shuler(D) is safe, unless it's a very bad year for Democrats.
CD-2(Green): Was CD-5, Virginia Foxx(R) is VERY safe with this new CD.
CD-3(Purple): Was CD-10, Patrick McHenry(R), I believe, is ok. He isn't in the most Conservative District anymore, a lot of Charlotte's outlining subrubs are in his District.
CD-4(Red): Was CD-9, Sue Myrick (R) is safe, Union County is a very republican area.
CD-5(Yellow): Was CD-12, Mel Watt (D), is safe, very safe.
CD-6(blue-green): Was CD-6, I moved this North to take the Conservative areas, Howard Coble (R) is safe.
CD-7(gray): Was CD-8, Larry Kissell (D), I believe is safe. The Southern Counties on the NC/SC board is very Democratic and it has almost all of Greensboro and all of Burlington in it.
CD-8(lilac):Was CD-4, David Price (D) is very safe.
CD-9(cyan): Was CD-7, Mike McIntyre (D), I think is safe, unless it is a very bad year for Democrats.
CD-10(pink):Was CD-2, Bob Etheridge (D), is safe. All of Fayetteville is in his district.
CD-11(lime green): Was CD-13, Brad Miller (D) is very safe. Made this an all Raleigh district.
CD-12(light blue): Was CD-1, G. K. Butterfield (D), is safe.
CD-13(peach): Was CD-3, Walter B. Jones (R), I think is safe.

~~~

So I think this map is good, it doesn't gain more seats for the Democrats or Republicans, but it makes each current seat holder safe, i believe. So what do you guys think?
 
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« Reply #551 on: March 11, 2010, 08:36:46 pm »
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I made a North Carolina Map.



(Starting from Left to Right)

CD-1(Blue): Was CD-11, Heath Shuler(D) is safe, unless it's a very bad year for Democrats.
CD-2(Green): Was CD-5, Virginia Foxx(R) is VERY safe with this new CD.
CD-3(Purple): Was CD-10, Patrick McHenry(R), I believe, is ok. He isn't in the most Conservative District anymore, a lot of Charlotte's outlining subrubs are in his District.
CD-4(Red): Was CD-9, Sue Myrick (R) is safe, Union County is a very republican area.
CD-5(Yellow): Was CD-12, Mel Watt (D), is safe, very safe.
CD-6(blue-green): Was CD-6, I moved this North to take the Conservative areas, Howard Coble (R) is safe.
CD-7(gray): Was CD-8, Larry Kissell (D), I believe is safe. The Southern Counties on the NC/SC board is very Democratic and it has almost all of Greensboro and all of Burlington in it.
CD-8(lilac):Was CD-4, David Price (D) is very safe.
CD-9(cyan): Was CD-7, Mike McIntyre (D), I think is safe, unless it is a very bad year for Democrats.
CD-10(pink):Was CD-2, Bob Etheridge (D), is safe. All of Fayetteville is in his district.
CD-11(lime green): Was CD-13, Brad Miller (D) is very safe. Made this an all Raleigh district.
CD-12(light blue): Was CD-1, G. K. Butterfield (D), is safe.
CD-13(peach): Was CD-3, Walter B. Jones (R), I think is safe.

~~~

So I think this map is good, it doesn't gain more seats for the Democrats or Republicans, but it makes each current seat holder safe, i believe. So what do you guys think?
 


You certainly haven't done Kissell any favors by putting Randolph County in his district. Randolph County voted over 70% for McCain, and had about 14,000 more total votes than Anson, Richmond, and Scotland Counties combined. Only Avery and Yadkin Counties voted for McCain by a wider percentage margin. Alamance (54% McCain) and Davidson (66% McCain) Counties are no help, either. These Republican areas are largely negated by Democrats in Greensboro, but it would be better if Randolph County could be packed into a Republican district.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #552 on: March 11, 2010, 09:26:10 pm »
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I made a North Carolina Map.



(Starting from Left to Right)

CD-1(Blue): Was CD-11, Heath Shuler(D) is safe, unless it's a very bad year for Democrats.
CD-2(Green): Was CD-5, Virginia Foxx(R) is VERY safe with this new CD.
CD-3(Purple): Was CD-10, Patrick McHenry(R), I believe, is ok. He isn't in the most Conservative District anymore, a lot of Charlotte's outlining subrubs are in his District.
CD-4(Red): Was CD-9, Sue Myrick (R) is safe, Union County is a very republican area.
CD-5(Yellow): Was CD-12, Mel Watt (D), is safe, very safe.
CD-6(blue-green): Was CD-6, I moved this North to take the Conservative areas, Howard Coble (R) is safe.
CD-7(gray): Was CD-8, Larry Kissell (D), I believe is safe. The Southern Counties on the NC/SC board is very Democratic and it has almost all of Greensboro and all of Burlington in it.
CD-8(lilac):Was CD-4, David Price (D) is very safe.
CD-9(cyan): Was CD-7, Mike McIntyre (D), I think is safe, unless it is a very bad year for Democrats.
CD-10(pink):Was CD-2, Bob Etheridge (D), is safe. All of Fayetteville is in his district.
CD-11(lime green): Was CD-13, Brad Miller (D) is very safe. Made this an all Raleigh district.
CD-12(light blue): Was CD-1, G. K. Butterfield (D), is safe.
CD-13(peach): Was CD-3, Walter B. Jones (R), I think is safe.

~~~

So I think this map is good, it doesn't gain more seats for the Democrats or Republicans, but it makes each current seat holder safe, i believe. So what do you guys think?
 


You certainly haven't done Kissell any favors by putting Randolph County in his district. Randolph County voted over 70% for McCain, and had about 14,000 more total votes than Anson, Richmond, and Scotland Counties combined. Only Avery and Yadkin Counties voted for McCain by a wider percentage margin. Alamance (54% McCain) and Davidson (66% McCain) Counties are no help, either. These Republican areas are largely negated by Democrats in Greensboro, but it would be better if Randolph County could be packed into a Republican district.

Well, Anson, Richmond and Scotland counties are very Democratic at the state level, so is the Guilford County area I put in his district. He would be safe, IMO.

Anyways, You can't put Randolph in a Republican district without it looking very crazy.
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« Reply #553 on: March 14, 2010, 02:13:18 pm »
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Philadelphia if it had 17 council districts instead of 10 districts and 7 at-large



District 01 (blue): 83% Black, 12% White
District 02 (green): 77% Black, 12% White, 7% Asian
District 03 (purple): 59% Black, 32% White, 5% Asian
District 04 (red): 49% Black, 36% White, 11% Asian
District 05 (yellow): 64% White, 15% Asian, 13% Black
District 06 (teal): 53% Black, 33% White, 7% Asian, 6% Hispanic
District 07 (gray): 86% Black, 9% Hispanic
District 08 (lilac): 62% White, 31% Black
District 09 (cyan): 91% Black, 5% White
District 10 (pink): 88% Black, 5% White
District 11 (lime): 34% Black, 33% Hispanic, 17% White, 15% Asian
District 12 (skyblue): 72% Hispanic, 16% Black, 9% White
District 13 (peach): 66% White, 16% Hispanic, 13% Black
District 14 (gold): 76% White, 10% Black, 9% Hispanic
District 15 (orange): 72% White, 10% Hispanic, 8% Black
District 16 (greenish): 82% White, 7% Asian, 5% Black, 5% Hispanic
District 17 (darkblue): 78% White, 11% Black, 5% Hispanic

Here's the map by race
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« Reply #554 on: March 14, 2010, 02:20:39 pm »
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Too bad Phil's not around, I'd like his commentary on that.
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« Reply #555 on: March 23, 2010, 07:34:54 am »
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Here's a Republican gerrymander of Oregon (no, this will never happen):



The green and blue districts were won by McCain (around 6% and 10% margins, respectively). The purple district went 60+% for Obama, while the red one is about a 75% Obama district. Obama won the yellow district, but I would guess it'd be more of a swing district in a neutral year, as Bush won Clackamas County in 2004. Probably still went for Kerry, though.
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Verily
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« Reply #556 on: March 29, 2010, 08:42:59 pm »
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You should be able to draw a 3-2 Republican map in Oregon with not that many changes. Or a 3-3 map if it gains a seat.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #557 on: March 30, 2010, 01:47:51 pm »
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Here's a quickly done gerrymander of the Georgia State Senate. It turns the currently 34R-22D body into probably a 28-28, though it could be as good as 31D-25R after a good year. If I re-do this I'll tidy up the south a bit, though first I'd like to make a straight-up Republican gerrymander. What are the VRA requirements for state legislature seats?
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muon2
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« Reply #558 on: March 30, 2010, 08:40:02 pm »


Here's a quickly done gerrymander of the Georgia State Senate. It turns the currently 34R-22D body into probably a 28-28, though it could be as good as 31D-25R after a good year. If I re-do this I'll tidy up the south a bit, though first I'd like to make a straight-up Republican gerrymander. What are the VRA requirements for state legislature seats?

GA is under section 5 of the VRA. That means the USDOJ has to approve their map. One important consideration is that they not retrogress the number of minority seats unless there is no way to make them without going under 50% of the minority in that district.
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« Reply #559 on: March 30, 2010, 09:01:43 pm »
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My first attempt .. I tried to make a "serious" map under the 2008 projections, with the assumption that NC will still have 13 Congressional districts. But make a map that is relatively safe for the incumbents, conforms to traditional expectations, and has two minority districts that are not grotesque looking.

I managed to get Mel Watt's 12th district to fit in 3 counties, and create a map with only 13 counties split (an average of 1 per district). My new 2nd district is the other minority district. The VRA districts have 54% nonwhite voters, and I was able to keep all the districts within 5000 votes of each other.

From left to right:

11th gets both Asheville and Boone, probably would remain Dem.
10th stays pretty much the same, with a few county line crosses. Put western Cornelius in it.
12th is almost reasonable now... just most of Charlotte, Kannapolis, and Salisbury. Still would pass VRA and keep Mel Watt (not that I want to!)
5th stays about the same, gave all of Iredell to Virginia Foxx
6th gets Davidson and Randoph, thatís probably fine with Howard Coble. He gets to keep southeast Guilford where he grew up and attends church.
9th includes GOP heavy south Charlotte plus Union county. It gets some of the more rural and minority counties to the east too but I think the suburban vote would predominate and Sue Myrick would stay.
8th becomes a bit more rural by moving it away from Mecklenburg. Remains a competitive swing district.
3rd moves east a bit but remains what it is, conservative farm country that Jones would win again.
7th does not change much.
4th would be impossible to pry from David price, including Durham and most of Chapel Hill.
13th would be a solid Dem district by including most of Greensboro.
2nd is a VRA district. It rambles a bit and splits some counties but it reasonably compact.
1st is a weird shape but itís what was left over after complying with VRA. Mostly unpopulated land and coastline, with a base of voters in northern Wake.





« Last Edit: March 30, 2010, 09:05:50 pm by mozo »Logged
Verily
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« Reply #560 on: April 04, 2010, 10:52:59 am »
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I have a wonderful Democratic gerrymander of Illinois, to be posted soon. 3 black-majority districts, 2 Hispanic-majority districts, and a 16-3 split in the congressional delegation (could go 14-5 in a very good year for the Republicans).
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Bo
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« Reply #561 on: April 04, 2010, 12:18:23 pm »
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I have a wonderful Democratic gerrymander of Illinois, to be posted soon. 3 black-majority districts, 2 Hispanic-majority districts, and a 16-3 split in the congressional delegation (could go 14-5 in a very good year for the Republicans).

I look forward to seeing it.
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Verily
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« Reply #562 on: April 04, 2010, 12:47:53 pm »
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Chicagoland:



IL-1: 50% black, safe Democratic
IL-2: 64% Hispanic, safe Democratic
IL-3: 57% Hispanic, safe Democratic
IL-4: 60% black, safe Democratic
IL-5: 54% black, safe Democratic
IL-6: safe Democratic (D+15 or so)
IL-7: safe Democratic (D+8 or so)
IL-8: safe Democratic (D+12 or so)
IL-9: likely Democratic (D+6 or so)
IL-10: safe Democratic (D+10 or so)
IL-11: safe Democratic (D+8 or so)
IL-12: lean Democratic (D+2 or so)
IL-13: lean Democratic (D+2 or so)

The Democrats would probably want to make one of IL-12 and IL-13 a Republican-leaning marginal and the other one safe. However, I have no idea how to do that; DuPage County is very uniform, and I just worked off of the municipal data that Dave Leip has on his incomplete IL municipalities map.

Quad Cities/Peoria area:



IL-14: safe Republican (R+10 or so)
IL-15: safe Democratic (D+8 or so)


Central and Southern Illinois:



IL-16: safe Republican (R+12 or so)
IL-17: likely Democratic (D+5 or so)
IL-18: safe Republican (R+12 or so)
IL-19: safe Democratic (D+8 or so)
« Last Edit: April 04, 2010, 12:57:13 pm by Verily »Logged
Verily
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« Reply #563 on: April 04, 2010, 12:53:19 pm »
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Obviously, the map starts looking a little ridiculous in the central and southern areas, but it's really no worse than the current map, better in some areas. IL-17 is a wonderful masterpiece, combining East Peoria, Springfield, Decatur, Urbana-Champaign, Bloomington-Normal, Danville and Mattoon-Charleston in a single district.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2010, 01:03:23 pm by Verily »Logged
Bo
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« Reply #564 on: April 04, 2010, 01:01:07 pm »
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Verily--good map, but I would suggest making each VRA district just 50-51% black/Latino in order to give more minorities to other districts and make them more Democratic.
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« Reply #565 on: April 04, 2010, 01:07:04 pm »
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Verily--good map, but I would suggest making each VRA district just 50-51% black/Latino in order to give more minorities to other districts and make them more Democratic.

Can't do it without way more contortion than would ever hold up in courts. There's no room for the VRA districts to move around because they all border each other. The areas that they do have that border other districts are Republican-voting, That's why IL-05 and IL-01 extend so far out--they take in the white Republican suburbs at the edges of Cook County.* The only exception is in North Chicago, but IL-06, IL-07 and IL-08 are all Democratic enough without needing to dilute the VRA districts to be safe.

*The municipality that sticks out of Cook County between DuPage and Will Counties is around 90% white and voted for McCain. The same is true for the square-shaped appendage to IL-05 at its southwestern-most corner.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2010, 01:15:05 pm by Verily »Logged
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« Reply #566 on: April 04, 2010, 01:47:07 pm »
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Ilinois is not covered by the VRA.
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Verily
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« Reply #567 on: April 04, 2010, 01:51:25 pm »
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Ilinois is not covered by the VRA.

In theory; in practice, if you reduced the number of minority districts (and, in this case, failed to create a new Hispanic district long overdue), you'd be in trouble.

Plus, you'd prefer this anyway. It gets rid of Dan Lipinski by putting him in either a 64% Hispanic district or a 50% black district, neither of which would ever nominate him.
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« Reply #568 on: April 04, 2010, 02:26:39 pm »
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I might prefer it. I haven't seen it due to the mobile site.
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« Reply #569 on: April 04, 2010, 07:59:08 pm »
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Ah, that is nice. Wouldn't hold up in court though I bet.
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« Reply #570 on: April 04, 2010, 08:24:40 pm »
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OK here's something I drew up for Ohio:






OH-01 (blue): Removed the Butler County portions which were put in for a gerrymander. Driehaus probably could beat Chabot here even if he loses this year.
OH-02 (dark green): No point in trying to remove Schmidt, so she ended up with an even safer district.
OH-03 (purple): Could be trouble for Turner, though he's far from guaranteed to lose. Austria now lives in this district, but he'd be better off moving.
OH-04 (red): Pretty safe GOP seat. However we likely see a primary battle between Jim Jordan and Pat Tiberi, Jordan probably wins.
OH-05 (yellow): Even stronger GOP, Latta is actually removed from the seat, but he could easily move and win it.
OH-06 (dark teal): Both Wilson and Space are in this seat now. One of them probably moves to the new OH-12 though. The new seat is safer Dem.
OH-07 (gray): Pretty strong GOP. Austria could move here and win easily. If Kilroy loses there's a good chance that who beats her has a better chance in this seat, so a potential primary battle.
OH-08 (tealish purple): Still safe for Boehner.
OH-09 (cyan): Safe for Kaptur. Latta now lives here, but he's probably moving.
OH-10 (hot pink): Safe Dem. Kucinich might be worried though with new Democratic primary voters who aren't used to him.
OH-11 (light green): "Only" 49% black now, but safe Dem.
OH-12 (dark cyan): Open seat, likely either Space or Wilson move here. Wilson probably has a better chance. Pretty Dem leaning seat for either.
OH-13 (light pink): Sutton shouldn't have much trouble here. Might face LaTourette but would win.
OH-14 (brown): Tim Ryan and LaTourette would both live here. Ryan easily wins, LaTourette would have a slightly better chance in OH-13, but he probably should just retire.
OH-15 (orange): Now an urban Columbus district. Kilroy wins.
OH-16 (olive green): Safer for Boccieri.
« Last Edit: April 04, 2010, 08:36:49 pm by what is that smile on your face supposed to mean? »Logged




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Bo
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« Reply #571 on: April 04, 2010, 09:44:54 pm »
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I dare someone to do a very strong GOP gerrmander of Washington state.
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Verily
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« Reply #572 on: April 05, 2010, 09:38:35 am »
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Ah, that is nice. Wouldn't hold up in court though I bet.

Why not? It's not any worse than the current map, better in the lack of earmuffs or the strip-districts cutting from Chicago to Iowa.



« Last Edit: April 05, 2010, 10:19:03 am by Verily »Logged
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« Reply #573 on: April 05, 2010, 01:26:21 pm »
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I just made the most racist gerrymander of Oklahoma ever. The least white district is 69%, with 20% Native American. Lol
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Economic score : +8.84
Social score: +9.30

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« Reply #574 on: April 05, 2010, 01:36:53 pm »
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Uh....I just made a majority black district in Iowa.........51-43 Black
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