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| |-+  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  Dave's Redistricting App
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Author Topic: Dave's Redistricting App  (Read 141182 times)
Jackson
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« Reply #1125 on: November 05, 2011, 04:38:29 am »
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2008 data has been released for New Hampshire.
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Miles
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« Reply #1126 on: November 07, 2011, 02:03:44 am »
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PARTISAN DATA FOR LOUISIANA!!!!!!!!

I CAN'T THANK DAVE ENOUGH!!!!!!!!


...damn! The neighborhood that I was born and raised in voted 71/26 McCain!
« Last Edit: November 07, 2011, 02:21:55 am by MilesC56 »Logged

The past decade of politics in LA & NC is like the process of evolution in reverse...


Miles
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« Reply #1127 on: November 07, 2011, 06:24:34 pm »
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Here's the map I would draw; I went for 4-2 D.



CD1
72.4/25.9 McCain
66.2/33.8 Republican
Like the current 1st, very Republican. Safe for Scalise or his R successor.

CD2
57.3/40.9 Obama
63.3/36.7 Democratic
To unpack Democratic votes, this seat goes from majority-black to majority-coalition. White VAP  is up to 49.3% with blacks at 39.3%. The one problem here is that, while a white Democrat would fare best in the general election, the Democratic electorate is heavily black.
I could see a black Democrat being elected, but his appeal would be fairly limited to New Orleans, as the electorate in the other parishes would be quite hostile.

CD3
60.7/37.7 McCain
57.8/42.2 Republican
I actually drew this seat for a Chris John comeback. John was popular in the during his time in Congress and he's only 51. While the trend here is strongly Republican both Obama performance and the Democratic average are up 3% in the new 3rd, compared to the old 7th. Jeff Landry retains his New Iberia base, but Boustany would have more territory. A John-Boustany-Landry jungle primary would be the best scenario.

CD4
74.5/23.9 McCain
69.1/30.9 Republican
This district, not the 1st, is actually the most Republican seat in the state. It was pretty much the leftover district after I drew the other 5. It would actually be open.

CD5
54.4/44.7 McCain
50.7/49.3 Republican
Alexander and Flemming would be thrown into a jungle primary here; maybe one of them could run in the super-safe 4th instead. This district includes Shreveport plus the liberal parts of Monroe, both of which a Dixiecrat could use as bases. Its under 55% McCain and only narrowly Republican at the state level, so its certainly within reach of a Dixiecrat.
Flemming's 2008 opponent, Paul Carmouche, fell only 350 votes short in a district that McCain won 59/40; certainly a 54/45 McCain seat could be winnable for him.
Still, like CD3, the trend here is aggressively Republican.

CD6
51.3/47.4 Obama
55.4/44.6 Democratic
This is Louisiana's Cajun version of a Texas 'fajita strip' district. Besides the 2nd, this would be the other safely Democratic seat; actually voting for Obama and its comfortably Democratic at the state level. Its actually white majority (52-42). Louisiana State Senator-elect Rick Ward III, one of the more conservative Democrats, would be a good candidate here.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1128 on: November 14, 2011, 07:11:29 pm »
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Partisan data for Delaware, Missouri, Nebraska, and South Dakota have also popped up.
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BRTD
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« Reply #1129 on: November 14, 2011, 11:52:53 pm »
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Delaware has been around for awhile.

The rest interest me in seeing how many Obama LDs can be drawn.
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I don't know, I think the beat-back that happened in the wake of the Inks-Deluge debacle (and the descent of Leip to address it) means that the Mods don't have the standing right now to pull off a ban of a big-name poster.  this place would absolutely erupt, at least for opebo.  jmf maybe a bit less so, but still an outcry.  doesn't mean it could not happen at a future point.
Jackson
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« Reply #1130 on: November 15, 2011, 12:37:55 am »
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Maine and Massachusetts are up.
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« Reply #1131 on: November 15, 2011, 12:39:26 am »
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Can a McCain seat be drawn in Massachusetts?
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I don't know, I think the beat-back that happened in the wake of the Inks-Deluge debacle (and the descent of Leip to address it) means that the Mods don't have the standing right now to pull off a ban of a big-name poster.  this place would absolutely erupt, at least for opebo.  jmf maybe a bit less so, but still an outcry.  doesn't mean it could not happen at a future point.
Miles
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« Reply #1132 on: November 15, 2011, 02:11:01 am »
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Can a McCain seat be drawn in Massachusetts?

Massachusetts only has Dem/Rep numbers; I don't see Obama/McCain data.
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Jackson
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« Reply #1133 on: November 15, 2011, 03:39:25 am »
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Massachusetts appears to be averages. Otherwise the numbers would make no sense.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #1134 on: November 15, 2011, 07:06:44 pm »
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What exactly went into the Massachusetts average? It's pretty easy to draw a 6R-3D map and there's no way that's right.
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BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1135 on: November 15, 2011, 07:15:26 pm »
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I'm guessing the Senate special election and the 2010 gubernatorial election. It's beyond useless.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1136 on: January 11, 2012, 06:51:50 pm »
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Alaska, DC, and Puerto Rico are available now. Partisan data should be available for Connecticut in the next few days. Partisan data for DC (seriously) should be available as soon as Dave uploads it.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #1137 on: January 11, 2012, 07:10:16 pm »
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Alaska, DC, and Puerto Rico are available now. Partisan data should be available for Connecticut in the next few days. Partisan data for DC (seriously) should be available as soon as Dave uploads it.

Cheesy
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Yeah, after four years of being a non-disruptive poster on the forum, never considered a troublemaker, even someone who was liked well enough to be elected Atlasian President, Napoleon should be allowed to stay.


Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #1138 on: January 11, 2012, 07:36:50 pm »
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Will there be any presidential data for Washington State later on? 
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bgwah
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« Reply #1139 on: January 11, 2012, 07:39:21 pm »
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Will there be any presidential data for Washington State later on? 

It's already been added.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #1140 on: January 11, 2012, 07:44:08 pm »
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Will there be any presidential data for Washington State later on? 

It's already been added.

Cheesy
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Horus
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« Reply #1141 on: January 11, 2012, 08:08:58 pm »
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Anyone else having trouble finding DC and PR in the app?
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Miles
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« Reply #1142 on: January 11, 2012, 08:27:31 pm »
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Anyone else having trouble finding DC and PR in the app?

They're at the very end of the states list.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1143 on: January 11, 2012, 10:42:07 pm »
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Partisan data for Utah is also available.
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BRTD
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« Reply #1144 on: January 11, 2012, 11:38:54 pm »
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Utah actually has a possible function: Finding the most Obama congressional district that can be drawn.
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I don't know, I think the beat-back that happened in the wake of the Inks-Deluge debacle (and the descent of Leip to address it) means that the Mods don't have the standing right now to pull off a ban of a big-name poster.  this place would absolutely erupt, at least for opebo.  jmf maybe a bit less so, but still an outcry.  doesn't mean it could not happen at a future point.
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« Reply #1145 on: January 11, 2012, 11:49:06 pm »
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So it looks like if you draw a "natural" district in Salt Lake County from the top down south it ends up about 55% Obama. You could drawn into Park City to boost it, but that's not very big. 55% is pretty impressive for Utah though.
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I don't know, I think the beat-back that happened in the wake of the Inks-Deluge debacle (and the descent of Leip to address it) means that the Mods don't have the standing right now to pull off a ban of a big-name poster.  this place would absolutely erupt, at least for opebo.  jmf maybe a bit less so, but still an outcry.  doesn't mean it could not happen at a future point.
Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #1146 on: January 12, 2012, 12:03:23 am »
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I got 56% Obama between northern Salt Lake county and Summit county.
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The past decade of politics in LA & NC is like the process of evolution in reverse...


Seattle
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« Reply #1147 on: January 12, 2012, 12:05:10 am »
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Will there be any presidential data for Washington State later on? 

It's already been added.

Cheesy

About time! Cheesy
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So it goes. heya.
Хahar
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« Reply #1148 on: January 12, 2012, 12:15:03 am »
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So it looks like if you draw a "natural" district in Salt Lake County from the top down south it ends up about 55% Obama. You could drawn into Park City to boost it, but that's not very big. 55% is pretty impressive for Utah though.

Nonpartisan redistricting in Utah would certainly create a district that would at least be Democratic-leaning.
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The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
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BRTD
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« Reply #1149 on: January 12, 2012, 12:20:28 am »
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Oh definitely. The Democratic district would also be the most compact and community of interest based one easily.
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I don't know, I think the beat-back that happened in the wake of the Inks-Deluge debacle (and the descent of Leip to address it) means that the Mods don't have the standing right now to pull off a ban of a big-name poster.  this place would absolutely erupt, at least for opebo.  jmf maybe a bit less so, but still an outcry.  doesn't mean it could not happen at a future point.
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