Dave's Redistricting App

[Sam Spade]

Are the Hispanic areas dense enough for two districts, or will we be seeing a return of the Earmuffs?

The SW Chicago area easily has enough Hispanic population for a 65% (58% VAP) district by itself. That's just using the data in the App. No earmuffs should be needed. 

The NW area may have enough for a district as well, but that depends on how far out into the suburbs the district extends. Precincts can be pretty coarse for setting up minority districts. Block-level data will give a better idea as to the possibilities on the NW side.

Which reminds me - have you had a chance to look at Austin and environs to see if a Hispanic majority CD can be created w/o San Antonio. My 10 min look at last night the VTD suggests it'll fall a few percent short and would be extremely ugly anyway.

[Sam Spade]

Are the Hispanic areas dense enough for two districts, or will we be seeing a return of the Earmuffs?

The SW Chicago area easily has enough Hispanic population for a 65% (58% VAP) district by itself. That's just using the data in the App. No earmuffs should be needed. 

The NW area may have enough for a district as well, but that depends on how far out into the suburbs the district extends. Precincts can be pretty coarse for setting up minority districts. Block-level data will give a better idea as to the possibilities on the NW side.

Which reminds me - have you had a chance to look at Austin and environs to see if a Hispanic majority CD can be created w/o San Antonio. My 10 min look at last night the VTD suggests it'll fall a few percent short and would be extremely ugly anyway.

The core area for a district is Eastern Travis, Caldwell, Gonzales and Dewitt. I added short spurs to pick up New Braunfels and Seguin, which didn't look so bad. I then had to add a long spur through Victoria to Port Lavaca to get a full district at 50.2% VAP. That keeps out of San Antonio. It may be possible to run to Bryan instead of Port Lavaca, but I haven't fully worked on that.

That will be one ugly district.  I also have to wonder if it would withstand LULAC (or any number of other court decisions).

As for Bryan, unless the numbers have really changed, there won't be enough Hispanics to make it.  The Victoria area has far more Hispanics.

[Sam Spade]

The Texas numbers are off.  I seriously Doubt that Houston and Dallas have changed that much in a decade--it looks like someone drew random digits on a color-by-numbers.  There's a ton of 90% Hispanic precincts next to 90% Black next to 90% White ones, so the numbering system is probably off there, and i seriously doubt University park is now Majority-Black while Western Ft. Worth is Majority WHite.

I'll have to examine.  You do get more situations like that in Houston and Dallas (especially Houston) than you might think, but University Park ain't black, of course.

Anyway, I'll get back to work now.