Dave's Redistricting App

[Devilman88]

I will work on a North Carolina map.

[Devilman88]

I have two maps of NC, one with 15 and one with 16, but I can't seem to find it, can someone help me?

[Devilman88]

I have two maps of NC, one with 15 and one with 16, but I can't seem to find it, can someone help me?

Vista or XP?  Do a search for "Silverlight" in your file system.  You may have to set a search option to search for hidden files.

I have XP.

[Devilman88]

Ok, I found it, now how do you trun it into a picture?

[Devilman88]

I have a North Carolina map, but I seem to can't get it to save as a map.xlm or whatever it's called so I can change it into a .jpg, help.

[Devilman88]

Here is a map of NC with 14 districts(16EVs), (best map I could do with screen shot).



CD 1: (Blue): Has New Bern and Elizabeth City in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the slight to lean Democratic range. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: G. K. Butterfield (D) )

CD 2: Dark Green: Has Goldboro, Kinston and Southern Wake County in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the slight Democratic to Lean Democratic range. Due to popular Congressman, Lean Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Bob Etheridge (D) )

CD 3: Purple: Has Greenville, Jacksonville and Wilmington in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the Slight to Strong Republican range. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Walter B. Jones (R) )

CD 4: Red: Has Chaple Hill, Durham and Northern Wake County in it. I'm sure this is strong Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: David Price (D) )

CD 5: Yellow: Wilkesboro, Lexington and Mount Airy are in it. I'm sure this is strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Virginia Foxx (R) )

CD 6: Tealish color: Winston-Salem, High Point and Western Guilford County are in it. I believe this is somewhere in the Lean to Strong Democratic. Democratic Pick-up (Current Congressperson: None ) *Note Coble doesn't live in this district any more.*

CD 7: Grey: Lumberton and Fayetteville are in it. I believe this would be Lean Democratic. Democratic Hold  (Current Congressperson: Mike McIntyre (D) )

CD 8: Light Purple: Salisbury, Albemarle and Sanford are in it: I believe this is in the toss-up range. IToss-up (Current Congressperson: Larry Kissell (D) )

CD 9: Light Tealish: Southern Charlotte, Monroe and eastern Gastonia are in it. I'm sure this is Strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Sue Myrick (R) )

CD 10: Pink: Hickory, Statesville, Western Gasonia are in it. I'm sure this is strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Patrick McHenry (R) )

CD 11: Lime: Asheville and Boone are in it: I believe this would be Slight Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Heath Shuler (D) )

CD 12: Light Blueish : Northern Charlotte and Concord are in it. I'm sure this is Strong Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Mel Watt (D) )

CD 13: Paleish Color: Raleigh and Cary are in it. I believe this would be in he Strong Democratic range. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Brad Miller (D) )

CD 14: Dark Yellow: Western Guilford County, Burlington and Eden are in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the toss-up range: Toss-up (Current Congressperson: Howard Coble (R) ) *Note: If Howard Coble does run in 2012, he will win hands down. But when it's open it is toss-up*


Make up before Redistricting: 8 Democratic Congressmember, 5 Republican Congressmember
Make up after Redistricting: 8 Democratic Congressmember, 4 Republican Congressmebmeber, 2 toss-up CD.

[Devilman88]

Here is a map of NC with 14 districts(16EVs), (best map I could do with screen shot).



CD 1: (Blue): Has New Bern and Elizabeth City in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the slight to lean Democratic range. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: G. K. Butterfield (D) )

CD 2: Dark Green: Has Goldboro, Kinston and Southern Wake County in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the slight Democratic to Lean Democratic range. Due to popular Congressman, Lean Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Bob Etheridge (D) )

CD 3: Purple: Has Greenville, Jacksonville and Wilmington in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the Slight to Strong Republican range. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Walter B. Jones (R) )

CD 4: Red: Has Chaple Hill, Durham and Northern Wake County in it. I'm sure this is strong Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: David Price (D) )

CD 5: Yellow: Wilkesboro, Lexington and Mount Airy are in it. I'm sure this is strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Virginia Foxx (R) )

CD 6: Tealish color: Winston-Salem, High Point and Western Guilford County are in it. I believe this is somewhere in the Lean to Strong Democratic. Democratic Pick-up (Current Congressperson: None ) *Note Coble doesn't live in this district any more.*

CD 7: Grey: Lumberton and Fayetteville are in it. I believe this would be Lean Democratic. Democratic Hold  (Current Congressperson: Mike McIntyre (D) )

CD 8: Light Purple: Salisbury, Albemarle and Sanford are in it: I believe this is in the toss-up range. IToss-up (Current Congressperson: Larry Kissell (D) )

CD 9: Light Tealish: Southern Charlotte, Monroe and eastern Gastonia are in it. I'm sure this is Strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Sue Myrick (R) )

CD 10: Pink: Hickory, Statesville, Western Gasonia are in it. I'm sure this is strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Patrick McHenry (R) )

CD 11: Lime: Asheville and Boone are in it: I believe this would be Slight Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Heath Shuler (D) )

CD 12: Light Blueish : Northern Charlotte and Concord are in it. I'm sure this is Strong Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Mel Watt (D) )

CD 13: Paleish Color: Raleigh and Cary are in it. I believe this would be in he Strong Democratic range. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Brad Miller (D) )

CD 14: Dark Yellow: Western Guilford County, Burlington and Eden are in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the toss-up range: Toss-up (Current Congressperson: Howard Coble (R) ) *Note: If Howard Coble does run in 2012, he will win hands down. But when it's open it is toss-up*


Make up before Redistricting: 8 Democratic Congressmember, 5 Republican Congressmember
Make up after Redistricting: 8 Democratic Congressmember, 4 Republican Congressmebmeber, 2 toss-up CD.

What do you guys think about this? Good, bad?

[Devilman88]

NC-01 is probably not majority-black, which runs into VRA issues. Also, NC-12 goes too far into the suburbs to be safe for Mel Watt.

I also don't know that NC-11 needs to be shored up that much for Shuler. He seems perfectly capable of holding that district, since no serious Republican seems to want to run against him.

I tried to get NC-1 majority-black, but I couldn't!! Also, NC-12 is almost majority-black. I'll try to work on another that makes an majoity-black district.

[Devilman88]

NC-01 is probably not majority-black, which runs into VRA issues. Also, NC-12 goes too far into the suburbs to be safe for Mel Watt.

I also don't know that NC-11 needs to be shored up that much for Shuler. He seems perfectly capable of holding that district, since no serious Republican seems to want to run against him.

Where can I find the VRA rules?

[Devilman88]

Here is a map of NC with 14 districts(16EVs), (best map I could do with screen shot).



CD 1: (Blue): Has New Bern and Elizabeth City in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the slight to lean Democratic range. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: G. K. Butterfield (D) )

CD 2: Dark Green: Has Goldboro, Kinston and Southern Wake County in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the slight Democratic to Lean Democratic range. Due to popular Congressman, Lean Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Bob Etheridge (D) )

CD 3: Purple: Has Greenville, Jacksonville and Wilmington in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the Slight to Strong Republican range. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Walter B. Jones (R) )

CD 4: Red: Has Chaple Hill, Durham and Northern Wake County in it. I'm sure this is strong Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: David Price (D) )

CD 5: Yellow: Wilkesboro, Lexington and Mount Airy are in it. I'm sure this is strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Virginia Foxx (R) )

CD 6: Tealish color: Winston-Salem, High Point and Western Guilford County are in it. I believe this is somewhere in the Lean to Strong Democratic. Democratic Pick-up (Current Congressperson: None ) *Note Coble doesn't live in this district any more.*

CD 7: Grey: Lumberton and Fayetteville are in it. I believe this would be Lean Democratic. Democratic Hold  (Current Congressperson: Mike McIntyre (D) )

CD 8: Light Purple: Salisbury, Albemarle and Sanford are in it: I believe this is in the toss-up range. IToss-up (Current Congressperson: Larry Kissell (D) )

CD 9: Light Tealish: Southern Charlotte, Monroe and eastern Gastonia are in it. I'm sure this is Strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Sue Myrick (R) )

CD 10: Pink: Hickory, Statesville, Western Gasonia are in it. I'm sure this is strong Republican. Republican Hold (Current Congressperson: Patrick McHenry (R) )

CD 11: Lime: Asheville and Boone are in it: I believe this would be Slight Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Heath Shuler (D) )

CD 12: Light Blueish : Northern Charlotte and Concord are in it. I'm sure this is Strong Democratic. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Mel Watt (D) )

CD 13: Paleish Color: Raleigh and Cary are in it. I believe this would be in he Strong Democratic range. Democratic Hold (Current Congressperson: Brad Miller (D) )

CD 14: Dark Yellow: Western Guilford County, Burlington and Eden are in it. I believe this would be somewhere in the toss-up range: Toss-up (Current Congressperson: Howard Coble (R) ) *Note: If Howard Coble does run in 2012, he will win hands down. But when it's open it is toss-up*


Make up before Redistricting: 8 Democratic Congressmember, 5 Republican Congressmember
Make up after Redistricting: 8 Democratic Congressmember, 4 Republican Congressmebmeber, 2 toss-up CD.

What do you guys think about this? Good, bad?

You are assuming of course that NC gains a seat, which isn't currently projected. That said, it's a nice looking map but the loss of both black-majority seats would be fatal at the DOJ. NC is covered under the stringent review of section 5 of the VRA and retrogression is not legal. So some unusual line drawing will be needed to be in compliance.

I used the App to try to remake NC-1(The one with a black majorty) and it seems like it isn't at 50.1% anymore, but at 48-43 black majorty.

[Devilman88]

Show off I'm going to work on it again! Also, in your map I live in CD 6, in the one I made I live in CD 14.

[Devilman88]

NC-01 is probably not majority-black, which runs into VRA issues. Also, NC-12 goes too far into the suburbs to be safe for Mel Watt.

I also don't know that NC-11 needs to be shored up that much for Shuler. He seems perfectly capable of holding that district, since no serious Republican seems to want to run against him.

Where can I find the VRA rules?

Basically, the rule is that you can't dilute the minority presence in a majority-minority (at least 50.1% black or Hispanic) district. Coalition districts (say, one that was 40% black and 15% Hispanic) are not protected, however.

Worst.  Law.  Ever.  BTW

By its very nature it ensures ridiculous gerrymandering, and it's positive effects for minority representation are highly questionable.  It often leads to the creation of a couple of districts with a 60 percent or greater minority presence when almost any redistricting without the rules would create several districts with 30 percent minority representation.  When you want to dilute the chances of an opposition party picking up more seats, you generally create as many districts with super-majorities of that parties voters as possible.  If your goal were to ensure the election of fewer black candidates, and lessen overall minority political power, then I couldn't think of a much better way to do so than the regulations of the VRA.

You'd probably still have to maintain at least a 40% black minority in order for black candidates to win in most of the South.  30% might be sufficient in some of the northern cities but Southern whites are nearly as polarized towards Republicans as blacks voters are towards Democrats.

I can't speak for the rest of the south, but I know here, in North Carolina. Places that have a high black population, are very liberal areas anyways.

[Devilman88]

How do you save a map off of the app?

[Devilman88]

CD-1(Blue): 50-42 Black majorty.
CD-12(Light Blue): 52-30 Black Majorty.

So what do you guys think about this one? Good Bad?

[Devilman88]

Here is my North Carolina Map, with 13 CDs.

[Devilman88]

How many majority-minority district does NC have to have according to VRA Rules?

[Devilman88]

I made a North Carolina Map.



(Starting from Left to Right)

CD-1(Blue): Was CD-11, Heath Shuler(D) is safe, unless it's a very bad year for Democrats.
CD-2(Green): Was CD-5, Virginia Foxx(R) is VERY safe with this new CD.
CD-3(Purple): Was CD-10, Patrick McHenry(R), I believe, is ok. He isn't in the most Conservative District anymore, a lot of Charlotte's outlining subrubs are in his District.
CD-4(Red): Was CD-9, Sue Myrick (R) is safe, Union County is a very republican area.
CD-5(Yellow): Was CD-12, Mel Watt (D), is safe, very safe.
CD-6(blue-green): Was CD-6, I moved this North to take the Conservative areas, Howard Coble (R) is safe.
CD-7(gray): Was CD-8, Larry Kissell (D), I believe is safe. The Southern Counties on the NC/SC board is very Democratic and it has almost all of Greensboro and all of Burlington in it.
CD-8(lilac):Was CD-4, David Price (D) is very safe.
CD-9(cyan): Was CD-7, Mike McIntyre (D), I think is safe, unless it is a very bad year for Democrats.
CD-10(pink):Was CD-2, Bob Etheridge (D), is safe. All of Fayetteville is in his district.
CD-11(lime green): Was CD-13, Brad Miller (D) is very safe. Made this an all Raleigh district.
CD-12(light blue): Was CD-1, G. K. Butterfield (D), is safe.
CD-13(peach): Was CD-3, Walter B. Jones (R), I think is safe.

~~~

So I think this map is good, it doesn't gain more seats for the Democrats or Republicans, but it makes each current seat holder safe, i believe. So what do you guys think?
 

[Devilman88]

I made a North Carolina Map.



(Starting from Left to Right)

CD-1(Blue): Was CD-11, Heath Shuler(D) is safe, unless it's a very bad year for Democrats.
CD-2(Green): Was CD-5, Virginia Foxx(R) is VERY safe with this new CD.
CD-3(Purple): Was CD-10, Patrick McHenry(R), I believe, is ok. He isn't in the most Conservative District anymore, a lot of Charlotte's outlining subrubs are in his District.
CD-4(Red): Was CD-9, Sue Myrick (R) is safe, Union County is a very republican area.
CD-5(Yellow): Was CD-12, Mel Watt (D), is safe, very safe.
CD-6(blue-green): Was CD-6, I moved this North to take the Conservative areas, Howard Coble (R) is safe.
CD-7(gray): Was CD-8, Larry Kissell (D), I believe is safe. The Southern Counties on the NC/SC board is very Democratic and it has almost all of Greensboro and all of Burlington in it.
CD-8(lilac):Was CD-4, David Price (D) is very safe.
CD-9(cyan): Was CD-7, Mike McIntyre (D), I think is safe, unless it is a very bad year for Democrats.
CD-10(pink):Was CD-2, Bob Etheridge (D), is safe. All of Fayetteville is in his district.
CD-11(lime green): Was CD-13, Brad Miller (D) is very safe. Made this an all Raleigh district.
CD-12(light blue): Was CD-1, G. K. Butterfield (D), is safe.
CD-13(peach): Was CD-3, Walter B. Jones (R), I think is safe.

~~~

So I think this map is good, it doesn't gain more seats for the Democrats or Republicans, but it makes each current seat holder safe, i believe. So what do you guys think?
 

You certainly haven't done Kissell any favors by putting Randolph County in his district. Randolph County voted over 70% for McCain, and had about 14,000 more total votes than Anson, Richmond, and Scotland Counties combined. Only Avery and Yadkin Counties voted for McCain by a wider percentage margin. Alamance (54% McCain) and Davidson (66% McCain) Counties are no help, either. These Republican areas are largely negated by Democrats in Greensboro, but it would be better if Randolph County could be packed into a Republican district.

Well, Anson, Richmond and Scotland counties are very Democratic at the state level, so is the Guilford County area I put in his district. He would be safe, IMO.

Anyways, You can't put Randolph in a Republican district without it looking very crazy.

[Devilman88]

I just noticed they added Partisan data for NC!!!

[Devilman88]

Here is a Republican Map of NC with 13 CDs:



NC-1: G.K. Butterfield(D): Bl: 50% Wh: 40% Hisp: 7%/ Obama: 68% McCain: 31% ( Dem)

NC-2: Bob Etheridge(D): Wh: 67% Bl: 20% Hisp: 10%/ McCain: 54% Obama: 45% (Lean Rep)

NC-3: Walter B Jones, Jr(R): Wh: 72% Bl: 20%/ McCain: 57% Obama: 33% ( Rep)

NC-4: David Price(D): Wh: 61% Bl: 23% Hisp: 9%/ Obama: 66% McCain: 33% (Dem)

NC-5: Virginia Foxx(R): Wh: 86% Bl: 6% Hisp: 6%/ McCain: 56% Obama: 42% (Rep)

NC-6: Howard Coble(R): Wh: 75% Bl: 17% Hisp: 5%/ McCain: 53% Obama: 46% (Lean Rep)

NC-7: Mike McIntyre(D): Wh: 61% Bl: 24% Nat: 8% Hisp: 6%/ McCain: 50% Obama: 40% (Toss-up)

NC-8: Larry Kissell(D): Wh: 68% Bl: 20% Hisp: 7%/ McCain: 56% Obama: 43% (Rep)

NC-9: Sue Myrick(R): Wh: 75% Bl: 13% Hisp: 8%/ McCain: 57% Obama: 42% (Rep)

NC-10: Patrick McHenry(R): Wh: 78% Bl: 12% Hisp: 7%/ McCain: 58% Obama: 41% (Rep)

NC-11: Heath Shuler(D): Wh: 86% Bl: 7% Hisp: 4%/ McCain 58% Obama: 41% (Rep)

NC-12: Mel Watt(D): Bl: 41% Wh: 40% Hisp: 14%/ Obama: 71% MCCain: 29% (Dem)

NC-13: Brad Miller(D): Wh: 65% Bl: 22% Hisp: 9%/ Obama: 52% McCain: 47% (Toss-up)

[Devilman88]

For a rep NC, try swinging the 4th all the way West to Forysth County and Winston-Salem, giving the Black part of Raleigh to the 1st, Drawing the rest of the Democratic part of Raliegh into the 2nd, and swinging that one down to take the Democratic parts of the 7th and 8th.  Then swing the 12th west to take the Democratic parts of Asheboro.  I think you can get a pretty solid 9-4 Gerrymander that way

Here's my 9-4 GOP version. CDs 1 and 12 are majority Black with 54% and 52%. CD 7 is plurality (41%) Black and CD 4 is the other D district. All other districts would have voted at least 56% for McCain.

You put Coble in NC-5 with Foxx, I believe.

[Devilman88]

For a rep NC, try swinging the 4th all the way West to Forysth County and Winston-Salem, giving the Black part of Raleigh to the 1st, Drawing the rest of the Democratic part of Raliegh into the 2nd, and swinging that one down to take the Democratic parts of the 7th and 8th.  Then swing the 12th west to take the Democratic parts of Asheboro.  I think you can get a pretty solid 9-4 Gerrymander that way

Here's my 9-4 GOP version. CDs 1 and 12 are majority Black with 54% and 52%. CD 7 is plurality (41%) Black and CD 4 is the other D district. All other districts would have voted at least 56% for McCain.

You put Coble in NC-5 with Foxx, I believe.

I didn't consider the residences of the incumbents, only the partisan leaning of the districts. It wouldn't be hard to move, and technically most experts don't think district residency can be used as a requirement anyway.

Ah i see, I keep them in their own districts, but I guess I'm doing it wrong.