Dave's Redistricting App

[Bo]

http://www.redstate.com/merrimackman/2009/12/05/maryland-2012-redistricting-map/

Red state has a redistricting plan using daves tool

I had put together a map of MD a couple of years ago based on 2010 projections. I adapted it to the 2008 data on the App to get the following map.



The districts are all within 100 persons of the ideal number, and were designed to minimize the number of split counties. There are Two majority Black districts. Using the voting data on the App, here's how they come out with the percentage of the two-party 2008 presidential vote:

CD-1 (blue) R+16
CD-2 (green) R+9
CD-3 (purple) R+3
CD-4 (red) D+41
CD-5 (yellow, 67% Black) D+73
CD-6 (teal) D+2
CD-7 (gray, 63% Black) D+76
CD-8 (lavender) D+48

This is a great Republican gerrymander of Maryland. I would make CD-01 less Republican just to make the three remaining Republican-leaning/swing districts even more Republican.

[Bo]

Republican gerrymander of Indiana:



IN-01 (blue, Pete Visclosky - D) - Took LaPorte County form neighboring IN-02 and dropped the Republican-leaning counties in the south of the district. Easily went for Obama by about a 2-1 margin.
IN-02 (green, Joe Donnelly - D) - Shifted the district east; basically the only old parts are St. Joseph County and Elkhart. Went from 54-45 Obama to about 51-48 McCain. Donnelly might have a shot at holding this one, but it would be much tougher.
IN-03 (purple, Mark Souder - R) - Remains centered in Fort Wayne, but the rest of the district goes south now. Formerly a 56-43 McCain district; my rough estimate is about a 55-44 McCain margin now.
IN-04 (red, Steve Buyer - R) - Shifts from the Indianapolis suburbs to the north central part of the state, but I scooped out about half of Tippecanoe County to compensate for losing those Republican suburbs. Another formerly 56-43 McCain district, I'm guessing it's about the same now, maybe a point less Republican.
IN-05 (yellow, Dan Burton - R) - Shrinks down to mostly the northern Indy suburbs, although I did add in part of the aforementioned Tippecanoe. Was 59-40 McCain, I'd say the margin's more like 57-42 now.
IN-06 (teal, Mike Pence - R) - Stretchy! Instead of comprising the mid-eastern part of the state, it goes from Muncie, around the outskirts of the Indy area, up to the northwest end of the state. Was 53-46 McCain, actually I think it's a little more Republican now, around 55-44 McCain.
IN-07 (grey, Andre Carson - D) - Pretty much unchanged, although slightly bigger, easily high-60s for Obama.
IN-08 (light purple, Brad Ellsworth - D) - Interestingly-shaped to remove Bloomington from IN-09, this one now includes pretty much all the Dem-friendly territory in the southwest of the state. Formerly 51-47 McCain, this flips to around 53-46 Obama.
IN-09 (light blue, Baron Hill - D) - Loses Baron's most favorable territory and adds in some Republican parts on the west and northeast sides. Was 50-49 McCain, now a whopping 58-41 McCain.

Johnny, that is a great map, but I have one suggestion. I would give Tippecanoe County to Ellsworth (since it voted for Obama by a large margin) and give some rural McCain countries in southwestern Indiana that previously belonged to IN-08 to IN-09. That would make Ellsworth's district more solidly Democratic and allow Republicans to make the remaining six districts even more Republican (just in case to prevent them from losing any seats even in a very bad year like 2006 or 2008).

[Bo]

I know we were asked not to post every swing state diary map here when people can see them there on their own, but this "New York 28-0" takes the cake for treating redistricting as an abstraction. I'm actually offended that someone submitted it.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6166/#108516

I was bothered by the fact that the author of this reduced the minority levels so much in CD-15 that whites are the largest group by a significant amount, and then called it a VRA district. So I decided to retaliate with a VRA-based map that maximizes minority-majority districts.

In my map below I assume 28 districts and all are within 100 using 2008 data on the App. NYC has 8 districts with a single minority majority:

CD-16 (bright green - Bronx) 58% Hispanic.
CD-15 (orange - New York, Bronx, and some Queens) 51% Hispanic
CD-12 (blue - Kings, Queens, and a bit of New York) 51% Hispanic
CD-11 (lime green - Kings) 55% Black
CD-10 (magenta - Kings) 55% Black
CD-7 (grey - Bronx, Queens) 56% Hispanic
CD-6 (cyan - Queens, Nassau) 55% Black

and the drum roll please ...

CD-5 (yellow - Queens, New York, and Kings) 51% Asian



The majority-Asian CD-5 defines this map. It links Flushing in Queens to Chinatown in Manhattan and on to Sunset Park in Brooklyn. The other districts then work around that district. The other majority-minority districts maintain the largest group in the current CD.

I restricted the Staten Island district (CD-13) to cross into Brooklyn and that forced CD8 to run from lower Manhattan up to Yonkers, though CD-14 could have connected to Yonkers instead by crossing Central Park. On Long Island the constraints of CDs 5 and 6 forced CD3 (purple) to go from Coney Island out to Suffolk County along the Atlantic. The population shifts also caused CD-17 (dark blue-grey) to go from Westchester through Co Op City in the Bronx to cross at Throgs Neck and run along the Sound to NW Nassau.

Enjoy.

It's pretty cool you can make an Asian-majority district in New York. Can you see if you can make one in California?

[Bo]

Can anyone create two black-majority districts in Virginia?

[Bo]

Can anyone create two black-majority districts in Virginia?

Definitely not possible. Creating one already requires severe gerrymandering.

Actually I tried it and was successful. Basically what you do is you take the black-majority precincts (and ones with a very large black minority) in Virginia Beach, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Chesapeake.  That gets you one black-majority district. Then you take the black majority precincts in Richmond and Henrico County, and precincts with a very large black minroity in Chesterfield, Nottoway, Dinwiddle, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Halifax, and Charlotte Countries and add the city of Danville. Also, you should stretch this district to Lynchburg or even Roanoke (even though just Lynchburg is fine) and you should get a second black-majority district.

[Bo]

Can anyone create two black-majority districts in Virginia?

Definitely not possible. Creating one already requires severe gerrymandering.

Actually I tried it and was successful. Basically what you do is you take the black-majority precincts (and ones with a very large black minority) in Virginia Beach, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Chesapeake.  That gets you one black-majority district. Then you take the black majority precincts in Richmond and Henrico County, and precincts with a very large black minroity in Chesterfield, Nottoway, Dinwiddle, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Halifax, and Charlotte Countries and add the city of Danville. Also, you should stretch this district to Lynchburg or even Roanoke (even though just Lynchburg is fine) and you should get a second black-majority district.

Plurality, or majority? I have no doubt that you could get two 45% black districts that are 43% white. But 50% black seems highly unlikely.

I said majority, as in 50+% African American. I experimented with Dave's Redistricting App and managed to get 2 black majority districts. If you follow my directions you should get two as well.

[Bo]

The green district (where I live) is fascinating.

So far, that district in San Jose and adjacent areas and the one in NYC are the only two Asian-majority districts I've found. If that were the CA map in 2012, who do you think would win the district?

Democratic victories all across the board. Mike Honda would certainly have no trouble holding the district.

[Bo]

Can anyone create two black-majority districts in Virginia?

Definitely not possible. Creating one already requires severe gerrymandering.

Actually I tried it and was successful. Basically what you do is you take the black-majority precincts (and ones with a very large black minority) in Virginia Beach, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Chesapeake.  That gets you one black-majority district. Then you take the black majority precincts in Richmond and Henrico County, and precincts with a very large black minroity in Chesterfield, Nottoway, Dinwiddle, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Halifax, and Charlotte Countries and add the city of Danville. Also, you should stretch this district to Lynchburg or even Roanoke (even though just Lynchburg is fine) and you should get a second black-majority district.

Plurality, or majority? I have no doubt that you could get two 45% black districts that are 43% white. But 50% black seems highly unlikely.

I said majority, as in 50+% African American. I experimented with Dave's Redistricting App and managed to get 2 black majority districts. If you follow my directions you should get two as well.

I played around with it last night, and I also got two districts by separating Richmond from Norfolk/Newport News. CD3 (purple) is just over 50% and CD4 (red) is 53%. CD1 (blue) becomes a long snaky district from Prince William Co almost down to NC.

That's a good map. Randy Forbes would probably choose to run in VA-02 in this scenario. However, you can make it neater by removing the top part (counties) of VA-04 (the red district) and adding areas of Henry County and Lynchburg that have large black populations (or just areas of Henry County). This would make your map somewhat neater.

[Bo]

Actually I tried it and was successful. Basically what you do is you take the black-majority precincts (and ones with a very large black minority) in Virginia Beach, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Chesapeake.  That gets you one black-majority district. Then you take the black majority precincts in Richmond and Henrico County, and precincts with a very large black minroity in Chesterfield, Nottoway, Dinwiddle, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Halifax, and Charlotte Countries and add the city of Danville. Also, you should stretch this district to Lynchburg or even Roanoke (even though just Lynchburg is fine) and you should get a second black-majority district.

Plurality, or majority? I have no doubt that you could get two 45% black districts that are 43% white. But 50% black seems highly unlikely.

I said majority, as in 50+% African American. I experimented with Dave's Redistricting App and managed to get 2 black majority districts. If you follow my directions you should get two as well.

I played around with it last night, and I also got two districts by separating Richmond from Norfolk/Newport News. CD3 (purple) is just over 50% and CD4 (red) is 53%. CD1 (blue) becomes a long snaky district from Prince William Co almost down to NC.

That's a good map. Randy Forbes would probably choose to run in VA-02 in this scenario. However, you can make it neater by removing the top part (counties) of VA-04 (the red district) and adding areas of Henry County and Lynchburg that have large black populations (or just areas of Henry County). This would make your map somewhat neater.

Thanks. Having VA-04 go into either Lynchburg or Henry did not significantly change the Black percentages. Lynchburg only has two significantly Black precincts, so using it in VA-04 would require a split of the city. Henry is a little better, but it extends the line along the NC border more than I'd like. Cumberland was the better choice for me.

In regards to Lynchburg and Henry, I am suggesting splitting the city/country so that the black areas go to the fourth district and that the white areas go to other congressional districts. I know that splitting countries/cities is not always desirable, but I think it is very effecient in these sorts of cases. There are many areas in Henry County with 50% or more black population, while there are none (I believe) in Cumberland County.

[Bo]

Can someone create a minority-majority district in MA?

[Bo]

Can someone create a minority-majority district in MA?

Tom Finneran proposed one in 2001. It involved connecting the minority-majority parts of MA-8 and Milton to Lynn. With 9 districts, it's probably impossible.

Isn't the current 8th minority-majority (even using year 2000 numbers)?

[Bo]

I just made a majority-minority (not majority-black) district connecting most of Boston with parts of Quincy, Chelsea, Cambridge, and Somerville. It's 49% white, 21% black, 18% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 2% other. This is with new population estimates and nine districts.

You mind posting your map here? I'd like to see what you came up with.

[Bo]

I'd like to see someone do a strong Democratic gerrymander of Virginia, as in an 8-3 Democratic map (with Boucher included).

[Bo]

If the courts draw the lines in Mass, because in 2010 the Pubbies get more than one third of the seats in one of the houses of the legislature, and a GOP governor is elected, causing a deadlock, what would a non partisan map look like that comports with the law, and would that cause any seat to have a GOP lean, or close to it?  Just curious.

I think nonpartisan maps often tend to be incumebent-protection maps, so it is unlikely that one district will have a Republican lean.

[Bo]

Here's my Dem gerrymander of Virginia from a few months back for Rochambeau. Of course, this is before Deeds totally collapsed, and I don't think there's anything that can save Boucher. The best possible occurrence would be 8-3, but Frank Wolf isn't going anywhere until he retires, and the Republicans are still alive and kicking in Loudoun and Prince William.

No time wasted...



Click to embiggen.

VA-01 (teal, Rob Wittman - R) - Wittman's district is reconfigured to stretch from the Northern Neck (eastern edge) to the West Virginia border, taking in the exurbs of Northern Virginia along the way. Safe Republican district.
VA-02 (dark green, Glenn Nye - D) - I excised the Republican portions of Virginia Beach, added all of Norfolk and minority-heavy parts of Chesapeake and Suffolk. The district is 35% black now and probably voted pretty strongly for Obama, I'd guess in the high-50s.
VA-03 (dark blue, Bobby Scott - D) - Not much changed here. Removed Norfolk, added Petersburg and some more territory around Richmond. 53% black.
VA-04 (purple, Randy Forbes - R) - Pretty much all the population here is Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, and Chesterfield. The district is solidly Republican now.
VA-05 (red, Tom Perriello - D) - The heavily-Republican southwestern part of the district is removed, and instead it stretches both down southeast to the Greensville/Emporia area and northeast to Caroline/Essex/King & Queen, both Democratic areas. Also included most of Lynchburg, not a heavily Democratic city but friendlier territory than the Bedford area. District probably voted for Obama in the low-50s. Now 27% black.
VA-06 (light green, Bob Goodlatte - R) - Picked up the aforementioned Bedford area, and lost Lynchburg and the Democratic parts of Roanoke. Safe Republican.
VA-07 (yellow, Eric Cantor - R) - Instead of stretching up almost to NoVa, the district now spreads east to the Jamestown/York/Williamsburg historic triangle. Sorry, Williamsburg.
VA-08 (grey, Jim Moran - D) - Alexandria, part of Arlington, and eastern Fairfax. Safe D. Interestingly, this district is only 54% white.
VA-09 (magenta, Rick Boucher - D) - Poor Rick Boucher, can't do much for him. Added the Democratic parts of Roanoke and snaked up to Bath County, so Creigh Deeds could give it a try in the future if he felt like it.
VA-10 (light blue, Frank Wolf - R) - Wondering about the population growth in NoVa? Well, this district now consists solely of Loudoun, Prince William, Clarke, and a sliver of Fairfax. Probably won by Obama with around 55%, Wolf would be able to hold it but it would be a tossup (slightly Dem-leaning) in an open seat.
VA-11 (light purple, Gerry Connolly - D) - western Fairfax, Falls Church, part of Arlington, Manassas/Manassas Park and one or two precincts of Prince William. Safe Dem seat, probably 60%+ for Obama.

Is there a law that says Congressmen need to live in their CD's, or do you just need to live in the states they're representing? If they just need to live in the state, then Roanoke can be given to either Boucher or Perriello since it is a heavily Democratic city. Also, here's what I would do to get rid of Frank Wolf. I'd make the 10th ditrict cover all of Loundoun, the cities of Arlington, Falls Church, and Vienna, and some other Democratic areas in western Fairfax. That will put Moran and Wolf in the same district but Moran should win since this new district will vote over 60% for Obama. You then give most of Fairfax Country to the 11th district. Then, you give Alexandria, what's left of Fairfax County, Prince William County, and Fredericksburg and some surrounding surburbs to the new 8th district. This should produce three solidly Democratic districts in Northern Virginia. BTW, is it possible for the 3rd to take some more black areas from the 2nd district (not too much through) and then give Petersburg and/or Hopewell to Perriello? This should help shore up his district.

BTW, Johnny, I previously commented on your Indiana Republican gerrymander on how to improve it. I'm not sure if you read what I wrote.

[Bo]

Here's my Dem gerrymander of Virginia from a few months back for Rochambeau. Of course, this is before Deeds totally collapsed, and I don't think there's anything that can save Boucher. The best possible occurrence would be 8-3, but Frank Wolf isn't going anywhere until he retires, and the Republicans are still alive and kicking in Loudoun and Prince William.

No time wasted...



Click to embiggen.

VA-01 (teal, Rob Wittman - R) - Wittman's district is reconfigured to stretch from the Northern Neck (eastern edge) to the West Virginia border, taking in the exurbs of Northern Virginia along the way. Safe Republican district.
VA-02 (dark green, Glenn Nye - D) - I excised the Republican portions of Virginia Beach, added all of Norfolk and minority-heavy parts of Chesapeake and Suffolk. The district is 35% black now and probably voted pretty strongly for Obama, I'd guess in the high-50s.
VA-03 (dark blue, Bobby Scott - D) - Not much changed here. Removed Norfolk, added Petersburg and some more territory around Richmond. 53% black.
VA-04 (purple, Randy Forbes - R) - Pretty much all the population here is Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, and Chesterfield. The district is solidly Republican now.
VA-05 (red, Tom Perriello - D) - The heavily-Republican southwestern part of the district is removed, and instead it stretches both down southeast to the Greensville/Emporia area and northeast to Caroline/Essex/King & Queen, both Democratic areas. Also included most of Lynchburg, not a heavily Democratic city but friendlier territory than the Bedford area. District probably voted for Obama in the low-50s. Now 27% black.
VA-06 (light green, Bob Goodlatte - R) - Picked up the aforementioned Bedford area, and lost Lynchburg and the Democratic parts of Roanoke. Safe Republican.
VA-07 (yellow, Eric Cantor - R) - Instead of stretching up almost to NoVa, the district now spreads east to the Jamestown/York/Williamsburg historic triangle. Sorry, Williamsburg.
VA-08 (grey, Jim Moran - D) - Alexandria, part of Arlington, and eastern Fairfax. Safe D. Interestingly, this district is only 54% white.
VA-09 (magenta, Rick Boucher - D) - Poor Rick Boucher, can't do much for him. Added the Democratic parts of Roanoke and snaked up to Bath County, so Creigh Deeds could give it a try in the future if he felt like it.
VA-10 (light blue, Frank Wolf - R) - Wondering about the population growth in NoVa? Well, this district now consists solely of Loudoun, Prince William, Clarke, and a sliver of Fairfax. Probably won by Obama with around 55%, Wolf would be able to hold it but it would be a tossup (slightly Dem-leaning) in an open seat.
VA-11 (light purple, Gerry Connolly - D) - western Fairfax, Falls Church, part of Arlington, Manassas/Manassas Park and one or two precincts of Prince William. Safe Dem seat, probably 60%+ for Obama.

Is there a law that says Congressmen need to live in their CD's, or do you just need to live in the states they're representing? If they just need to live in the state, then Roanoke can be given to either Boucher or Perriello since it is a heavily Democratic city. Also, here's what I would do to get rid of Frank Wolf. I'd make the 10th ditrict cover all of Loundoun, the cities of Arlington, Falls Church, and Vienna, and some other Democratic areas in western Fairfax. That will put Moran and Wolf in the same district but Moran should win since this new district will vote over 60% for Obama. You then give most of Fairfax Country to the 11th district. Then, you give Alexandria, what's left of Fairfax County, Prince William County, and Fredericksburg and some surrounding surburbs to the new 8th district. This should produce three solidly Democratic districts in Northern Virginia. BTW, is it possible for the 3rd to take some more black areas from the 2nd district (not too much through) and then give Petersburg and/or Hopewell to Perriello? This should help shore up his district.

BTW, Johnny, I previously commented on your Indiana Republican gerrymander on how to improve it. I'm not sure if you read what I wrote.

I'm not so sure that your proposed 10th district would be solidly Democratic. Western Fairfax (with the exception of Reston) is still fairly Republican, and Loudoun is still pretty Republican (Obama's percentage was more an aberration than a trend, I think). Moran lives in Alexandria, not Arlington, by the way.

Actually, after the terrible performance by the Dems last year, it would probably be less of a headache for the Democrats to cede the 10th and make the 11th a solidly Dem district. Give the western parts of Fairfax to the 10th and add the Democratic eastern part of Prince William County to the 11th.

I think I saw the comment on my IN map, but I probably just couldn't think of anything to respond with.

According to Moran's Wikipedia article, he lives in Arlington. If you want to make the 10th safer for Frank Wolf, though, I would also recommend taking the Democratic areas in Northerneastern Loundoun County and give them to Gerry Connolly. Wolf can be compensated by receiving some further territory from Western Fairfax County. BTW, it says on Wolf's Wikipedia article that he lives in Vienna, which is outside his district. If that's the case, surely it must be possible to add Roanoke City to either Perriello's or Boucher's districts, despite the fact that Bob Goodlatte lives there. BTW, I agree with Ben in saying that 2009 was a poor year to use as a baseline. Deeds severely underperfomed throughout much of Virginia, but especially in the Northern part. If you want to be fair, use the average of the Obama and Deeds percentages for a baseline. Also, you could use the PVI of each county (which isn't too hard to calculate) as a baseline.

[Bo]

If the courts draw the lines in Mass, because in 2010 the Pubbies get more than one third of the seats in one of the houses of the legislature, and a GOP governor is elected, causing a deadlock, what would a non partisan map look like that comports with the law, and would that cause any seat to have a GOP lean, or close to it?  Just curious.

So here is one take on a court-drawn map. I assumed that the special master appointed by the court would start by keeping district cores intact, while eliminating the more egregious gerrymander shapes. MA-1 adds Springfield, since adding Worcester creates a strange loop from Worcester across the northern edge to the Berkshires. That puts Worcester in MA-2, and a handful of towns are left over in Worcester County from the two western CDs.

MA-3 AND MA-4 had the least identifiable cores since they were the must strung out. Since MA-3 lost Worcester, I shifted MA-3 south to New Bedford, including almost all of Bristol County. The new MA-4 essentially replaces the current MA-10 in Plymouth, the Cape and Islands.

In the northeast, MA-6 adds Revere and Lawrence to bring up its population and eliminate the long finger that sticks out to Bedford. That moves MA-5 south to Marlborough and the other adjacent "-boroughs." MA-7 pushes south to gain Somerville and Cambridge and west out to Concord. MA-8 maintains its status as a 50-50 white/minority district by linking south to Brockton. That leaves MA-9 to shift west and north, picking up Allston/Brighton, Back Bay, and West Roxbury in Boston, and towns from Newton out to Framingham.



I can now apply the election data from the 2006 Governor's race, using just the R and D numbers, without the other two candidates. Both MA-4 and MA-5 in the map above could be interesting to the GOP. The 2006 two-party split in MA-4 favors the Dems 52.4 - 47.6, and in MA-5 it would favor the Dems 52.8 - 47.2.

Do you think you can calculate how many districts in this map Scott Brown wins?

[Bo]

I'd like to see if it's possible to create an Obama district in Arkansas.

[Bo]

Here's a stab at redistricting SC into 7 districts.



Probably not the real district boundaries as there is a good chance this would put two Representatives in the same district, and I didn't try to gerrymander it into a potential 6 GOP/1 Dem map.

The 6th District remains majority black (53-41) which probably would pass VRA scrutiny, but it could be made blacker and thereby make neighboring seats safer for the GOP by splitting up even more counties than this does.  A 61-34 black majority contiguous district is constructable with no split precincts if you want a really ugly gerrymander.

If SC gets seven seats, the Justice Department will likely demand a second black-majority seat. Thus the Republican legislature will likely turn Spratt's district into a black-majority one in addition to keeping Clyburn's black-majority. This will allow the GOP to strengthen its hold on the remaning five seats.

[Bo]

If SC gets seven seats, the Justice Department will likely demand a second black-majority seat. Thus the Republican legislature will likely turn Spratt's district into a black-majority one in addition to keeping Clyburn's black-majority. This will allow the GOP to strengthen its hold on the remaning five seats.

I don't believe it's possible to create two majority-minority districts in South Carolina.  If it is, it would be a most hellacious gerrymander.

It's possible. Here is a link to a website where someone gerrymandered South Carolina to have two black-majority districts. The SC map on top is really gerrymandered, but the SC map below it is much less gerrymandered. It is the one that makes Spratt's district black-majority in addition to Clyburn's. Thus, it is possible to create two black-majority districts in South Carolina without extreme gerrymandering.

[Bo]

That's really squeaking by with those SC maps, muon. It won't take much of a difference between estimate and reality for those maps to be impossible.

Also your second map has CD 6 and 7 reversed, since I imagine that the GOP wouldn't be so petty as to make Clyburn change his stationary.

Also if population inflows resume after an economic recovery what you have as CD 6 in both maps would definitely not be majority black by 2020 and might well be majority white by then.

The maps on the link I showed were better. BTW, you can always gerrymander if necessary. In addition, if one of those districts stops having a black majority in 2020 or beyond, then policymakers can always dismantle the district at a later date.

[Bo]

Bipartisan incumbent protector:



VA-01 (blue, Rob Wittman - R) - Wittman picks up all of Stafford and part of heavily-Republican Hanover and loses some of the counties that went for Obama, and the parts of Williamsburg and Newport News as well. Also picks up the more Republican part of Hampton from Glenn Nye, as well as the Eastern Shore. This may seem weird, but while the Eastern Shore is not physically connected to VA-01, it is culturally much more like parts of the district than Virginia Beach.
VA-02 (green, Glenn Nye - D) - Dropping the Republican parts of Virginia Beach and Hampton and picks up all of Norfolk, Portsmouth, most of Suffolk and the minority-heavy part of Chesapeake. I've actually gotten it to a coalition district, as it's 49% white. Should be a safe district now, although Nye may not be safe from a primary challenge from the left unless he moves left accordingly.
VA-03 (purple, Bobby Scott - D) - Ladies and gentlemen, may I present a contiguous VA-03. Removing the Southside Hampton Roads parts of the district, I've added all of Newport News, Sussex/Greensville/Emporia, and Petersburg and the black parts of Hopewell. Remains 53% black.
VA-04 (red, Randy Forbes - R) - Losing the black parts of Chesapeake and parts of the district given to Bobby Scott, and adding the Republican parts of Virginia Beach and more of Chesterfield should make Forbes' district more Republican.
VA-05 (yellow, Tom Perriello - D) - District shifts north to Northern Virginia. Dropped all the southern part of the district and pushed it up north to Prince William. The tradeoff for Perriello is having to run in the expensive DC media market.
VA-06 (Bob Goodlatte - R) - Didn't change this district much, it just shifted south a bit.
VA-07 (grey, Eric Cantor - R) - Cantor's district is possibly even more Republican now, taking in much of the heavily-Republican Southside counties and a few Democratic counties out of Wittman's district instead of pushing northwest towards the Shenandoah Valley.
VA-08 (light purple, Jim Moran - D) - Alexandria, Arlington, and eastern Fairfax. Safe Democratic.
VA-09 (light blue, Rick Boucher - D) - Picks up Danville and drops the Ronaoke area. Not much you can do for Rick.
VA-10 (magenta, Frank Wolf - R) - Dropping Prince William and going west into the Shenandoah Valley should make this district more Republican.
VA-11 (light green, Gerry Connolly - D) - Western Fairfax, should be safe Dem.

Johnny, that it a good map. I would remove Greene, Culpepper, and Rapahannock countries, as well as the Republican areas of western Prince William County from VA-05 and put them in VA-10. I would then exapnd VA-05 into Fairfax County and then give the Democratic areas of Loundoun County to either VA-08 or VA-11 in exchange. This should make VA-05 even more Democratic while making VA-10 even more Republican. BTW, what is the white percentage in your VA-10? I'm assuming it's around 80%. Also, good job giving Boucher Henry County and the city of Danville. This makes his district more Democratic, even though it's still Republican at large. What is the white percentage of Boucher's new district? I'm assuming about 85%. I'm hoping you have saved this map.

[Bo]

The maps on the link I showed were better. BTW, you can always gerrymander if necessary. In addition, if one of those districts stops having a black majority in 2020 or beyond, then policymakers can always dismantle the district at a later date.

First off, what link?  You mentioned a link, but there was no link.  Second, my point was mainly that a barely majority-minority district crafted based on the 2010 data might well have one or more of the five election cycles of its lifetime when it was not actually majority-minority.

Sorry about that. Here's the link:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5183/redistricting-south-carolina-2-blackmajority-seats

As for the second part, it is irrelevant since the district only needs to be majority-AA in the 2010 Census.

[Bo]

The maps on the link I showed were better. BTW, you can always gerrymander if necessary. In addition, if one of those districts stops having a black majority in 2020 or beyond, then policymakers can always dismantle the district at a later date.

First off, what link?  You mentioned a link, but there was no link.  Second, my point was mainly that a barely majority-minority district crafted based on the 2010 data might well have one or more of the five election cycles of its lifetime when it was not actually majority-minority.

Sorry about that. Here's the link:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5183/redistricting-south-carolina-2-blackmajority-seats

As for the second part, it is irrelevant since the district only needs to be majority-AA in the 2010 Census.

The SC map at the link is a mess! I now feel like my 2 different versions of 2 black-majority districts that I offered are things of beauty by comparison.

The second SC map in the link (below the first one--keep on scrolling down) is pretty clean. It is also the one that makes Spratt's district AA-majority in addition to Clyburn's.

[Bo]

Looking back at it, dropping the Cerritos extension may be possible. There are a lot of moderately Asian (25-40%) precincts around the main bulb in the western San Gabriel Valley, and relatively few of the Cerritos-area precincts are overwhelmingly Asian, just 40-50% (and the precincts connecting them to the rest contain few Asians at all, making it overall maybe 35% Asian in the extension).

I also missed a few of the majority Asian block groups around the eastern extension.

Worth trying, anyway, when I have the time.

You inspired me to give a fresh look as well. I found that I needed to keep Cerritos in, but I made the link through Fullerton. That also caused me to drop Chinatown, but overall I was able to get 52% Asian. I also improved my Santa Clara Asian district to 52%. I adjusted my other districts to maintain one Black-majority and 18 Hispanic-majority districts. All fall within 100 of the ideal population. Here's the full map, with detail for LA and the Bay areas, and a short description of demographics.







CD01 (royal blue, Redding): 76% white
CD02 (forest green, Chico): 63% white, 23% hispanic
CD03 (purple, Citrus Heights): 62% white
CD04 (red, Roseville) : 80% white
CD05 (yellow, Sacramento) : 41% white, 25% hispanic
CD06 (teal, Santa Rosa) : 71% white
CD07 (grey, Vallejo) : 37% white, 26% hispanic
CD08 (lavender, San Francisco) : 46% white, 29% asian
CD09 (baby blue, Oakland) : 34% white, 21% black, 21% asian, 20% hispanic
CD10 (magenta, Concord) : 58% white, 21% hispanic
CD11 (lime, Stockton) : 40% white, 37% hispanic
CD12 (periwinkle, San Mateo) : 45% white, 32% asian
CD13 (flesh, Hayward) : 43% white, 25% asian, 23% hispanic
CD14 (olive, Santa Cruz) : 55% white, 26% hispanic
CD15 (orange, San Jose) : 51% white, 25% hispanic
CD16 (kelly green, Milpitas) : 52% asian, 25% white
CD17 (midnight blue, Salinas) : 56% hispanic, 29% white
CD18 (lemon, Modesto-Merced) : 54% hispanic, 34% white
CD19 (moss green, Clovis) : 67% white, 21% hispanic
CD20 (pink, Fresno) : 62% hispanic, 23% white
CD21 (brick red, Visalia) : 59% hispanic, 31% white
CD22 (brown, Bakersfield) : 54% white, 34% hispanic
CD23 (pale blue, Oxnard) : 54% hispanic, 37% white
CD24 (deep purple, Santa Clarita) : 71% white, 20% hispanic
CD25 (mauve, Palmdale) : 53% white, 33% hispanic
CD26 (charcoal, Glendale) : 54% white, 25% hispanic
CD27 (sea green, LA Northridge) : 52% white, 30% hispanic
CD28 (lilac, LA Van Nuys) : 64% hispanic, 24% white
CD29 (pale olive, Alhambra) : 52% Asian, 24% hispanic, 21% white
CD30 (peach, Thousand Oaks) : 72% white
CD31 (pale yellow, LA - El Sereno) : 56% hispanic, 21% white
CD32 (tangerine, El Monte) 67% hispanic
CD33 (blue, LA - Downtown) 70% hispanic
CD34 (green, Montebello) 92% hispanic
CD35 (violet, LA - South LA) 52% black, 41% hispanic
CD36 (orange, Culver City) 52% white, 29% hispanic
CD37 (cornflower, Long Beach) 55% hispanic
CD38 (slate blue, Pomona) 52% hispanic, 31% white
CD39 (beige, Downey) 67% hispanic, 22% white
CD40 (rust, Huntington Beach) 56% white, 21% asian, 20% hispanic
CD41 (light grey, Redlands) 41% hispanic, 36% white
CD42 (bright green, Orange) 47% white, 33% hispanic
CD43 (hot pink, Rancho Cucamonga) 59% hispanic, 23% white
CD44 (maroon, Riverside) 51% hispanic, 36% white
CD45 (cyan, Indio) 51% hispanic, 40% white
CD46 (orange, Torrance) 46% white, 25% hispanic, 20% asian
CD47 (pale lilac, Santa Ana) 69% hispanic
CD48 (light orange, Irvine) 67% white
CD49 (dusty rose, Oceanside) 58% white, 30% hispanic
CD50 (sky blue, Escondido) 61% white, 22% hispanic
CD51 (brown, Chula Vista) 59% hispanic
CD52 (army green, El Cajon) 65% white, 20% hispanic
CD53 (pale grey, San Diego) 51% white, 31% hispanic

Nice job for making 3 Asian-majority districts.