Dave's Redistricting App

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I made a North Carolina Map.



(Starting from Left to Right)

CD-1(Blue): Was CD-11, Heath Shuler(D) is safe, unless it's a very bad year for Democrats.
CD-2(Green): Was CD-5, Virginia Foxx(R) is VERY safe with this new CD.
CD-3(Purple): Was CD-10, Patrick McHenry(R), I believe, is ok. He isn't in the most Conservative District anymore, a lot of Charlotte's outlining subrubs are in his District.
CD-4(Red): Was CD-9, Sue Myrick (R) is safe, Union County is a very republican area.
CD-5(Yellow): Was CD-12, Mel Watt (D), is safe, very safe.
CD-6(blue-green): Was CD-6, I moved this North to take the Conservative areas, Howard Coble (R) is safe.
CD-7(gray): Was CD-8, Larry Kissell (D), I believe is safe. The Southern Counties on the NC/SC board is very Democratic and it has almost all of Greensboro and all of Burlington in it.
CD-8(lilac):Was CD-4, David Price (D) is very safe.
CD-9(cyan): Was CD-7, Mike McIntyre (D), I think is safe, unless it is a very bad year for Democrats.
CD-10(pink):Was CD-2, Bob Etheridge (D), is safe. All of Fayetteville is in his district.
CD-11(lime green): Was CD-13, Brad Miller (D) is very safe. Made this an all Raleigh district.
CD-12(light blue): Was CD-1, G. K. Butterfield (D), is safe.
CD-13(peach): Was CD-3, Walter B. Jones (R), I think is safe.

~~~

So I think this map is good, it doesn't gain more seats for the Democrats or Republicans, but it makes each current seat holder safe, i believe. So what do you guys think?
 

You certainly haven't done Kissell any favors by putting Randolph County in his district. Randolph County voted over 70% for McCain, and had about 14,000 more total votes than Anson, Richmond, and Scotland Counties combined. Only Avery and Yadkin Counties voted for McCain by a wider percentage margin. Alamance (54% McCain) and Davidson (66% McCain) Counties are no help, either. These Republican areas are largely negated by Democrats in Greensboro, but it would be better if Randolph County could be packed into a Republican district.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Here's a fun challenge. The Mississippi State Senate has 52 districts. How many can you make black-majority? I just made 29 black-majority districts using 2000 numbers, but I think if I do it more efficiently I can get a 30th district in there.

My first attempt (also using 2000 numbers) I only managed 28. I think part of the problem was I did TOO good of a job cracking Rankin County (over half of its population live in black-majority districts). This resulted in a white majority district stretching from northern Rankin county across Madison and Yazoo counties. If I had packed white voters into a district based in Rankin County instead,  I could have used whites in Yazoo county to dilute my northern Vicksburg district. I also didn't stretch districts in Northwestern Mississippi far enough to the east.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Here's Maryland with 3 black-majority districts and 4 McCain districts.



CD-1 (Blue): 52-46 McCain
CD-2 (Green): 64% Black, 87% Obama
CD-3 (Purple): 57-41 McCain
CD-4 (Red): 54% White, 73% Obama
CD-5 (Yellow): 51-47 McCain
CD-6 (Teal): 55% Black, 80% Obama
CD-7 (Gray): 54-44 McCain
CD-8 (Light Purple): Just over 50% Black, 83% Obama

I should probably play around with the border between Districts 6 and 8 to increase District 8's black percentage.

Note: District numbers were selected for good color contrast with the partisan data layer enabled, and are not intended to reflect real life district numbers.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Here's Maryland with 3 black-majority districts and 4 McCain districts.



CD-1 (Blue): 52-46 McCain
CD-2 (Green): 64% Black, 87% Obama
CD-3 (Purple): 57-41 McCain
CD-4 (Red): 54% White, 73% Obama
CD-5 (Yellow): 51-47 McCain
CD-6 (Teal): 55% Black, 80% Obama
CD-7 (Gray): 54-44 McCain
CD-8 (Light Purple): Just over 50% Black, 83% Obama

I should probably play around with the border between Districts 6 and 8 to increase District 8's black percentage.

Note: District numbers were selected for good color contrast with the partisan data layer enabled, and are not intended to reflect real life district numbers.

I think the Justice Department might block this map because CD-2 crams much more black voters than is necessary.

Yet the plan still manages one more black-majority district than the current map.

Still, I am aware that improvements can be made, and you've inspired me to add to CD-8's black population by taking black voters from CD-2 instead of CD-6. Here is the result:



CD-1 (Blue): Unchanged. See above.
CD-2 (Green): 57% Black, 83% Obama
CD-3 (Purple): 52-47 McCain
CD-4 (Red): Unchanged. See above.
CD-5 (Yellow): 54-44 McCain
CD-6 (Teal): Unchanged. See above.
CD-7 (Gray): Unchanged. See above.
CD-8 (Light Purple): 52% Black, 83% Obama

This plan manages to increase the black population in the least black black-majority district as well as widen McCain's margin in the district he performed worst in of the ones he carried. Overall, I consider this an improvement.

Here's a zoomed in view of the beltway.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Here's my version of Georgia with 14 districts, of which 6 are black-majority. It should be noted that the black-majority districts are extremely marginal, and it would take very little difference between the estimates and reality for any of them not to be black-majority. I certainly don't submit this as a serious map, but it sure was fun to make!



CD-1 (Blue): 70% White, 22% Black, 5% Hispanic
CD-2 (Green): 50.07% Black, 34% White, 11% Hispanic
CD-3 (Purple): 71% White, 22% Black, 5% Hispanic
CD-4 (Red): 78% White, 14% Black, 5% Hispanic
CD-5 (Yellow): 51.15% Black, 34% White, 11% Hispanic
CD-6 (Teal): 75% White, 9% Black, 8% Hispanic, 7% Asian
CD-7 (Gray): 50.43% Black, 32% White, 11% Hispanic, 5% Asian
CD-8 (Light Purple): 77% White, 15% Black
CD-9 (Cyan): 50.91% Black, 34% White, 10% Hispanic
CD-10 (Magenta): 58% White, 16% Hispanic, 16% Black, 8% Asian
CD-11 (Light Green): 50.29% Black, 44% White
CD-12 (Indigo): 79% White, 11% Hispanic, 7% Black
CD-13 (Peach): 51.87% Black, 43% White
CD-14 (Bronze): 84% White, 9% Hispanic, 5% Black

NOTE: These district numbers were used because they correspond to colors that contrast well with the colors displayed when the racial demographics layer is enabled. They are not intended to correspond to the existing incumbents.

Here's a zoomed in view of the Atlanta metro area:

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Looks like it's not possible draw a McCain State House seat in Philly after all.

You give up too easily. This district is 52% McCain.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

You have 3 enclaves, two along the western border, and one in the northeast that are cutoff, and the area that you wrap around might not have enough population for a district of its own.

Always a complainer. Perhaps this is more to your liking then? Only 51% McCain, but no enclaves.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

What is the population of the center area?  Maybe you can create a donut?

I was curious about that as well, so I tested it. The center area would form most of a district, but there would have to be a little bit on the outside. Some of the precincts are rather inconveniently shaped; I can't get population equality for the center district without splitting a precinct or forcing a neighboring district to go outside of Philly. Even if the outer district remains entirely within Philly, it would have to be extended along the northern and western edges of the McCain district and include a small area to the south as well.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

What is the population of the center area?  Maybe you can create a donut?

I was curious about that as well, so I tested it. The center area would form most of a district, but there would have to be a little bit on the outside. Some of the precincts are rather inconveniently shaped; I can't get population equality for the center district without splitting a precinct or forcing a neighboring district to go outside of Philly. Even if the outer district remains entirely within Philly, it would have to be extended along the northern and western edges of the McCain district and include a small area to the south as well.

I just did it quickly, so could have missed one of them, but the population seemed short by about 6,000.

Using estimates, a 203-seat plan, and keeping districts entirely in Philadelphia, this is what Northeast Philly would probably look like with the McCain district. The largest deviation from the ideal population is -68, in the green district.



I'm not sure that the green district is really contiguous, but if you zoom in close enough, it looks like it is. If it isn't, the district will have to go into Montgomery County, but existing districts in the area also go into MontCo, including a district that is somewhat similar to the green district.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Okay, I think I just found the Holy Grail of Redistricting--The Black Plurality, Republican-voting District.  In Georgia, using a 14-district plan with the new Population estimates, make a district that contains Clayton, Henry, Rockdale, and Newton counties, and part of Spalding county.  The result is a district that is 46% black to 41% White, and Voted for Bush by a few thousand votes in 2004 according to this map:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

Not that this would actually be useful to Republicans in the future, as this part of Georgia was probably the Biggest swing towards Obama of any region in the country, as it would have gone to him with somewhere close to 65% of the vote, but still.  Are the South Atlanta Suburbs famous for Black Republicans or something?

No, the area is just experiencing very rapid growth among its minority population. Take a look a the shift in demographics since 2000.

Clayton County:
2000: 34.94% White, 51.08% Black, 7.50% Hispanic, 4.52% Asian, 0.23% Native American, 1.73% Other
2008: 20.03% White, 61.55% Black, 11.65% Hispanic, 4.99% Asian, 0.28% Native American, 1.50% Other.

Henry County:
2000: 80.06% White, 14.61% Black, 2.26% Hispanic, 1.77% Asian, 0.21% Native American, 1.10% Other.
2008: 58.13% White, 32.35% Black, 5.19% Hispanic, 2.75% Asian, 0.21% Native American, 1.38% Other.

Rockdale County:
2000: 72.69% White, 18.07% Black, 5.96% Hispanic, 1.96% Asian, 0.24% Native American, 1.07% Other.
2008: 46.79% White, 39.83% Black, 9.84% Hispanic, 2.06% Asian, 0.22% Native American, 1.26% Other.

Newton County:
2000:  74.20% White, 22.08% Black, 1.87% Hispanic, 0.73% Asian, 0.21% Native American, 0.91% Other
2008: 57.58% White, 36.26% Black, 3.81% Hispanic, 1.02% Asian, 0.18% Native American, 1.15% Other

The four counties combined:
2000: 56.39% White, 33.73% Black, 5.28% Hispanic, 3.00% Asian, 0.22% Native American, 1.38% Other.
2008: 40.47% White, 46.26% Black, 8.31% Hispanic, 3.34% Asian, 0.24% Native American, 1.38% Other.

The minority population is growing so fast that the accompanying political transformation is just as rapid.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Okay, I think I just found the Holy Grail of Redistricting--The Black Plurality, Republican-voting District.  In Georgia, using a 14-district plan with the new Population estimates, make a district that contains Clayton, Henry, Rockdale, and Newton counties, and part of Spalding county.  The result is a district that is 46% black to 41% White, and Voted for Bush by a few thousand votes in 2004 according to this map:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

Not that this would actually be useful to Republicans in the future, as this part of Georgia was probably the Biggest swing towards Obama of any region in the country, as it would have gone to him with somewhere close to 65% of the vote, but still.  Are the South Atlanta Suburbs famous for Black Republicans or something?

No, the area is just experiencing very rapid growth among its minority population. Take a look a the shift in demographics since 2000.

Clayton County:
2000: 34.94% White, 51.08% Black, 7.50% Hispanic, 4.52% Asian, 0.23% Native American, 1.38% Other
2008: 20.03% White, 61.55% Black, 11.65% Hispanic, 4.99% Asian, 0.28% Native American, 1.50% Other.

Henry County:
2000: 80.06% White, 14.61% Black, 2.26% Hispanic, 1.77% Asian, 0.21% Native American, 1.10% Other.
2008: 58.13% White, 32.35% Black, 5.19% Hispanic, 2.75% Asian, 0.21% Native American, 1.38% Other.

Rockdale County:
2000: 72.69% White, 18.07% Black, 5.96% Hispanic, 1.96% Asian, 0.24% Native American, 1.07% Other.
2008: 46.79% White, 39.83% Black, 9.84% Hispanic, 2.06% Asian, 0.22% Native American, 1.26% Other.

Newton County:
2000:  74.20% White, 22.08% Black, 1.87% Hispanic, 0.73% Asian, 0.21% Native American, 0.91% Other
2008: 57.58% White, 36.26% Black, 3.81% Hispanic, 1.02% Asian, 0.18% Native American, 1.15% Other

The four counties combined:
2000: 56.39% White, 33.73% Black, 5.28% Hispanic, 3.00% Asian, 0.22% Native American, 1.38% Other.
2008: 40.47% White, 46.26% Black, 8.31% Hispanic, 3.34% Asian, 0.24% Native American, 1.38% Other.

The minority population is growing so fast that the accompanying political transformation is just as rapid.

I hate to be this pedantic (but I will be anyway) but you have the other % in 2000 wrong.
Other than that, interesting numbers.

Thanks. Fixed.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Just to show the rapidness of the political transformation... Clinton won Clayton County, GA 45-41 in 1992. By 2000, Gore won it 65-33. And in 2008, Obama won it 83-17. Similar is now happening in Henry, Newton and Rockdale Counties, and also in nearby Douglas, Cobb and Gwinnett Counties.

During the 1990's Clayton County experienced one of the largest (if not THE largest) increases in minority population in the nation. In 1990, Clayton County was 71.30% White-- that percentage was more than halved by 2000.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Alternatively, what would be the best possible GOP map in CT?

There doesn't seem to be a way to guarantee the GOP even a single seat in Connecticut. The best I managed to do without splitting towns was this:



This district uses estimates and has a deviation of +72. Even this district was carried by Obama by over 20,000 votes, and in 2000 Bush was held to a margin of 2,236 votes.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Version 2.0 of the app has been released. For those of you with bookmarks directly to the app, you'll need to change it to this URL:

http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/davesredistricting2.0.aspx

It's certainly an interesting change, but it'll take some getting used to.

I'm not sure I really see what's better about this version.  It seems much harder to use than the old version.  There are no city lines anymore and all of the colors are too muted.  Its also impossible to see anything if you're trying to look at the entire state and you have all the voting districts turned on.

And turning off voting districts also turns off congressional districts.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Thank you for your wonderful redistricting app

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Newbie question here, does anyone know how to remove a precinct from a district? Thanks in advance.

In the list of districts, the first option is to unassign precincts. Click on that, and then color the precincts you want removed the same way you color them to add them to a district.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Two Democratic districts in Kansas. You could probably do without the southeastern leg entirely as the 2nd is 52.9% Obama, but I was happy to finally have the populations right. (I still have it open... I think I'll do it.) I'm pretty sure you can't do it without Wichita, though maybe it's just about barely possible on a super-contorted map. The third district is 49.5-49.1 Dem.

And you only had to go from Missouri to half-way to Colorado.

How is that any worse than the Republican map, which goes from Missouri all the way to Colorado (aside from the obvious non-compactness)?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Is a McCain district possible?

Sure, if you don't mind discarding such quaint notions as compactness, not splitting municipalities, and even road contiguity.



49.5% McCain, 49.3% Obama.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Happy I'm not the only one having issues.

Same here.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I am trying to load Kentucky in version 2.1, and the bar won't got beyond 3/4ths completion. I have tried this about 3 or 4 times on differenct days, across two and half weeks and it always stops at 75%. Do I need to clear my cache or something like that?

I seem to have difficulty loading Kentucky on version 2.1 as well (although I didn't really wait that long, since I have a pretty fast connection). But I have no trouble at all loading it on version 2.2, so you might want to give that a try if you can.