Excited about Iran's election?

[Dan the Roman]

So at this point we are hoping for a civil war right?  There is no way the Revolutionary Guard is just going to go away if Iran starts to move to the left politically.  Is there a peaceful path available?

If Ahmadinejad  loses to Mohsen Rezei the Guard would probably stay neutral, but if he tried reforms they would not. What has to be understood about Iran is that no one is particularly ideological. Its all a mafia. The Guards make 30 billion a year, and reform, especially the creation of civil society, threatens their economic interest. Its the same issue as with Zimbabwe. The crooks will fight to protect themselves. Iran has not been about Shiite Islam since Montezeri was ousted in 1989.

Anyway I like Rezei. He has his own private military base, extremely important in a power struggle and something Khamenei lacked, and he has lots of links to the west. His son goes to UCLA for instance. If the reformists were smart, they would have rallied around him rather than a has-been like Musavi. That said, Musavi might pull it off, I just doubt he will become President.  His presence as the leading reformist increases the chances of rigging though because unlike Khatami who was a lifelong friend of Khamenei, he is a mortal enemy going back decades. And after Khamenei struck at Meshbah-Yazdi back in 2006, he is not taking from friends, much less enemies.

[Frodo]

Since the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the real power in Iran, does he have a designated successor, and if so, who is he?  Is there a chance he could be more moderate than the current Ayatollah?   

[minionofmidas]

Since the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the real power in Iran, does he have a designated successor

No. He is elected for life by this body. Marginally more democratic than the election of popes, but that's about it.

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Well, yes. By degrees. There is a chance he might not be, too. Anyways Khamenei is only 69.

[Magic 8-Ball]

I wasn't excited about the race until I heard that Ahmadinejad tried to humiliate Mousavi's wife and all the backlash that it generated.  Now, despite the president's limited power, I'm quite excited. 

[Dan the Roman]

Since the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the real power in Iran, does he have a designated successor

No. He is elected for life by this body. Marginally more democratic than the election of popes, but that's about it.

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Well, yes. By degrees. There is a chance he might not be, too. Anyways Khamenei is only 69.

Hard to say. The Assembly of Experts elects his successor, but is the most mysterious body in the state. Its elections are also subject to the same Guardian vetting as the rest. Prior to 1989 this was not the case and anyone with the rank of Ayatollah or three letters of recommendation could run but Rafsanjani and Khamenei dumped that because most of the religious elite still backed Montezeri after he was ousted as Khomeini's successor in 1989.

In the most recent elections the neo-fundamentalists led by Meshbah-Yazdi, Ahmadinejad's spiritual mentor tried to take control from the faction around Rafsanjani and lost, and Rafsanjani currently is the speaker of the body. He would be an obvious choice for successor, but he is probably too old(2 years older than Khamenei) and political for the role. It will likely be a compromise pick.

Will he be moderate? Thats sort of a weird question. Khamenei was a moderate when he got the job. He had opposed the continuation of the war against Iran, backed links with the Reagan Administration, and tried to settle the Salman Rushdie thing by saying the Fatwah was symbolic only which pissed off Khomeini. The issue was he wanted to break free from Rafsanjani and the way to do that was to use the reformists to rid himself of Rafsanjani's people and then to install his sycophants in positions.

Its also weird to say he holds all the real power. Its unclear if thats true constitutionally(the 1989 one weakened the position) and even if it is, in practice he has to maneuver between factions. His real power comes from his nominal leadership of the extra-democratic institutions like the Judiciary and the Guardian Council, but its far from clear how much control he has. He ordered the Guardian Council to reinstall a number of candidates in 2004 and they ignored him. There is a chicken and the egg problem here. He only holds absolute power as long as he agrees with the people in the institutions that hold it. He would see a lot of it evaporate quickly if he turned to back the reformists. He is therefore far from being the only, or even the major factor holding back things like relations with the US. There are other groups(the IRGC) and people(Jannati) who do much more.

[Vepres]

If Mousavi wins, our relations with Iran could change significantly (I'm no expert, but that's what I've been hearing). Apparently, this guy wants to get trade sanctions lifted, doesn't want to spread Islam around the world, and actually talk to the world. For an Iranian, that's pretty good.

[Ogre Mage]

I wasn't excited about the race until I heard that Ahmadinejad tried to humiliate Mousavi's wife and all the backlash that it generated.  Now, despite the president's limited power, I'm quite excited. 

Zahra Rahnavard is no shrinking violet, that's for sure.  Her response to Ahmadinejad's accusations against her:

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This LA Times profile of her is worth reading:

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http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-women10-2009jun10,0,3183826.story

[Keystone Phil]

If Mousavi wins, our relations with Iran could change significantly (I'm no expert, but that's what I've been hearing). Apparently, this guy wants to get trade sanctions lifted, doesn't want to spread Islam around the world, and actually talk to the world. For an Iranian, that's pretty good.

He's certainly better and we all have to root for the guy but I'm skeptical about him being amazing.

[Vepres]

If Mousavi wins, our relations with Iran could change significantly (I'm no expert, but that's what I've been hearing). Apparently, this guy wants to get trade sanctions lifted, doesn't want to spread Islam around the world, and actually talk to the world. For an Iranian, that's pretty good.

He's certainly better and we all have to root for the guy but I'm skeptical about him being amazing.

I'm saying he'll be amazing relative to previous Iranian leaders.

[Beet]

I remember in 2005 the West was going crazy over a reformist winning, Ahmadinejad came completely out from nowhere to win on the back of his rural support- completely blindsided the West.

Bottom line, I think you guys are really making too much out of this eleciton. No matter what Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rules Iran in the end. We saw that in 1997-2005. If anything, Moussavi (or whatever his name is) supporter's are overreaching and there will be a backlash from the regime and the majority of Iranians who support it.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I remember in 2005 the West was going crazy over a reformist winning, Ahmadinejad came completely out from nowhere to win on the back of his rural support- completely blindsided the West.

Difference being that here Ahmadinejad has 5 years behind him, that unemployment nad prices of food have largely increased, that Iran has since he's here more heavy economical sanctions, that there is a guy who toughly said it to him on a TV debate, something which is new in Iran, and during which Ahmadinejad made several faults. So, maybe that's very stupid to hope, but because all of this, maybe hope is allowed.

Then, I wonder how much the support of the youth for Mosavi is big and strong in the country. If ever there is an actual very strong support in a big part of the youth, so we can wonder about what would happen if the result gives Ahmadinejad winner.

[Dan the Roman]

Really, the constant assertions that Khamenei rules anything are quite amusing.

Anyway, the 2005 elections had quite a few shenanigans pulled. Ahmadinejad does not necessarily have more support in the rural areas. Its simply easier to stuff ballot boxes where voters are illiterate. look at the turnout figures for 2005. 31% in Tehran, 95-99% in all the rural areas.

This election will not be free. If Mousavi wins by 5 points he will lose. If he wins by more than 10 or so he will probably get it.

[Beet]

He is losing by 40 points. You don't stuff that many ballot boxes.

I was right. Everyone else here was wrong (no, I don't expect a cookie).

[Sam Spade]

He is losing by 40 points. You don't stuff that many ballot boxes.

I was right. Everyone else here was wrong (no, I don't expect a cookie).

You'll get no disagreement here with anything you've said (even though I can guarantee that there is ballot fraud whereever Jimmy Carter says the elections are fair and honest).

[minionofmidas]

I remember in 2005 the West was going crazy over a reformist winning

Uh, what? The West was ready to deal with Rafsanjani. Everybody knew the reformist candidates Moin and Karroubi were underwhelming. Ahmadinejad didn't come entirely "out of the blue", either. The man was a very successful and popular mayor of Tehran. (Tehran wasn't his vote base in the first round though - that was the Farsi heartland around Esfahan etc. Everybody except Rafsanjani was essentially a regional candidate, and Rafsanjani got 22% on the first round. Normal people don't like him. Political dealmakers of every stripe do.)

[minionofmidas]

He is losing by 40 points. You don't stuff that many ballot boxes.

Current results are, by the Electoral Commission's own estimate, overwhelmingly from heartland rural areas. Expect that to go down a lot.

Turnout was a record high, btw.

[opebo]

No, I haven't been excited at all by this.

[minionofmidas]

He is losing by 40 points. You don't stuff that many ballot boxes.

Current results are, by the Electoral Commission's own estimate, overwhelmingly from heartland rural areas. Expect that to go down a lot.

Turnout was a record high, btw.

Is going down, but not nearly as much as I thought.

[Eraserhead]

Tehran is starting to get pretty ugly, apparently.

[dead0man]

Tehran is starting to get pretty ugly, apparently.

Under the circumstances, this is a good thing...right?

[Eraserhead]

Tehran is starting to get pretty ugly, apparently.

Under the circumstances, this is a good thing...right?

Well, I applaud the protesters and their fight for freedom but they are most likely going to get their heads bashed in.

[dead0man]

Like I said before, I'd rather die fighting for freedom than live under an oppressive regime.





(that is really easy for me to say, sitting here in America...despite her many faults)

[opebo]

Like I said before, I'd rather die fighting for freedom than live under an oppressive regime.





(that is really easy for me to say, sitting here in America...despite her many faults)

Really?

Somehow I doubt that your statement is really true.  I mean, what degree of oppression would you accept before you'ld commit suicide by 'fighting'? Seems to me there's plenty of oppression in good old america as well.

But kudos to you for admitting that is was 'really easy for' you 'to say'...

[dead0man]

I'd like to think so...but like I said, that's easy to think here in the "Land of the Free".


..and of course America isn't as free as it should be.  At the same time it's plenty free enough to let people fight for more freedoms without getting much grief from The Powers That Be.  I'd hope that if I lived in a land that didn't reach that level of freedom I'd either get me and mine out, or I'd go underground and "fight the system".

(and you don't need to go into a long rant about getting grief from The Powers That Be in America, of course it happens.  But the other 99% of the time people can bitch and not receive a fire hosing.)

[Nhoj]

it does look like riots are breaking out from pictures ive seen of bloody protesters and riot police getting beat up.