Which states do you think will switch party sides?

[Dan the Roman]

Anyone who thinks Minnesota is headed republican should take a look at the legislature and executive between 2004 and 2008. Republicans went from large majorities to nearly two-thirds democratic margins and Pawlenty is the only Republican left. A democratic gerrymander will reduce the GOP to two house seats, and annihilate them in legislature for a generation.

Obama only underperformed because he was badly outspent.

[pbrower2a]

To the Dems:

Montana
Missouri
Arizona
Georgia
North Dakota
South Dakota

To the Reps:

Indiana
North Carolina

Hackish much LOL

Here's what I figure is a non-hack (by your standards) response:

To Obama -- nothing.

To the Republican:

NE-02
North Carolina
Indiana
Florida
Ohio
Virginia
Colorado
Iowa
New Hampshire
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Michigan

... and we will all be singing a new version of the Hallelujah Chorus:

Hallelujah! (etc.)

GREED shall reign!
Forever! And Ever!
The Poor in pain!
Forever! And Ever!

(etc. -- repeated and varied)

Lord Mammon reigns forever and ever!

Hallelujah!

[DariusNJ]

I think Ohio will lose its bellwether status. People are fleeing the state in droves. I think that Obama will win have to win by 6-7 points nationwide to win Ohio in 2012.

Missouri also, but people found that out in this election

Most of the Highlands are trending Republican (Arkansas, Oklahoma, etc.) unless a centrist Dem is on the ticket, in which case Arkansas becomes 50-50.


As for the Dems, The Rocky Mountain West is trending their way, as is the Atlantic Coast states of VA, NC, SC, and GA.

[Vepres]

I think Ohio will lose its bellwether status. People are fleeing the state in droves. I think that Obama will win have to win by 6-7 points nationwide to win Ohio in 2012.

Missouri also, but people found that out in this election

Most of the Highlands are trending Republican (Arkansas, Oklahoma, etc.) unless a centrist Dem is on the ticket, in which case Arkansas becomes 50-50.


As for the Dems, The Rocky Mountain West is trending their way, as is the Atlantic Coast states of VA, NC, SC, and GA.

Depends on how much government is expanded.

[pbrower2a]

I think Ohio will lose its bellwether status. People are fleeing the state in droves. I think that Obama will win have to win by 6-7 points nationwide to win Ohio in 2012.

Missouri also, but people found that out in this election

Most of the Highlands are trending Republican (Arkansas, Oklahoma, etc.) unless a centrist Dem is on the ticket, in which case Arkansas becomes 50-50.


As for the Dems, The Rocky Mountain West is trending their way, as is the Atlantic Coast states of VA, NC, SC, and GA.

Depends on how much government is expanded.

... and how uncomfortable people are with the expansion of government activity in the economy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Looking ahead to 2012
States Obama must hold onto in order for reelection

Republican gains:
Colorado
Virginia: Webb is probably done Davis wins
Nevada:Replacement nominee for John Ensign
North Carolina
Indiana: Lugar reelected

Democrats 0 gains
Florida: Nelson is easily reelected
Ohio: Brown probably wins
New Mexico: Bingaman has no problem
Iowa

[Dan the Roman]

Looking ahead to 2012
States Obama must hold onto in order for reelection

Republican gains:
Colorado
Virginia: Webb is probably done Davis wins
Nevada:Replacement nominee for John Ensign
North Carolina
Indiana: Lugar reelected

Democrats 0 gains
Florida: Nelson is easily reelected
Ohio: Brown probably wins
New Mexico: Bingaman has no problem
Iowa

Hagan is far from doomed, especially if Obama is in decent shape. Everyone here has underestimated her consistently and the state is moving in her direction.

Lugar may not run again, ditto Bingaman. Davis will be old news.  I think Brown is the most vulnerable of these.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was thinking in terms of chairmanships, Chairmen usually don't lose and Brown's wife is in charge of the Cleveland plain Dealer newspaper, who does the polling for Mason Dixon for OH which is to his advantage.  Brown unlike Webb, Tester, and mcCaskill is the chairman of the auto committee and he will be able to outraise Webb, tester and McCaskill.  The Ohio Gop bench isn't in decent shape.

As far as North Carolina, after GOP 2011 sweep of KY, LA, and MS elections, Jindell wins over Landrieu easily, MS is MS and after the Dems exhust their in 2010 to try to rid Bunning KY is GOp's taking, the next state to fall in the South in the gubernatorial  contest is North Carolina, I don't think Bev Perdue is going to win. 

But we are getting way ahead of ourselves, we will see what takes shape in the next few years.

The GOP will be rebuilding, maybe not in time for 2012 but in time for 2016 and their first place to rebuild is in their base in the south or in the traditional states, FL, WV, MO.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Well, as of right now, these are the states as compared to the national average

I'm going to go with which will switch by 2016, because re-election campaigns always result in a somewhat uniform swing

This is my guess as to which side of the nat'l average the states will be in 2016

Arizona and Virginia to the Dems
Iowa to the GOP

Yea, so basically I think for the time being the GOP is going to have a rough go of it, because the Upper South and West are trending to the Dems faster than the Upper Midwest and Rust Belt are trending to the GOP. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If alex sink manages to win, FL and probably will go for the dems.

[Dan the Roman]

I was thinking in terms of chairmanships, Chairmen usually don't lose and Brown's wife is in charge of the Cleveland plain Dealer newspaper, who does the polling for Mason Dixon for OH which is to his advantage.  Brown unlike Webb, Tester, and mcCaskill is the chairman of the auto committee and he will be able to outraise Webb, tester and McCaskill.  The Ohio Gop bench isn't in decent shape.

As far as North Carolina, after GOP 2011 sweep of KY, LA, and MS elections, Jindell wins over Landrieu easily, MS is MS and after the Dems exhust their in 2010 to try to rid Bunning KY is GOp's taking, the next state to fall in the South in the gubernatorial  contest is North Carolina, I don't think Bev Perdue is going to win. 

But we are getting way ahead of ourselves, we will see what takes shape in the next few years.

The GOP will be rebuilding, maybe not in time for 2012 but in time for 2016 and their first place to rebuild is in their base in the south or in the traditional states, FL, WV, MO.

The GOP movement in the South has stabilized. North Carolina, Kentucky, West Virginia, Arkansas, and Missouri have all gotten more Democratic since 2000. Democrats hold every statewide office but one in all but Arkansas where they hold everyone. The GOP has no bench in NC which is why they ran a mayor this time.

Of these, I could see a negative reaction to Obama hurting Democrats in Kentucky and West Virginia, but North Carolina is culturally shifting. Look at who McCory was. He was a socially moderate pro-business Republican of the like who might win in Connecticut or that people on this forum fantasize about winning OR or WA for the GOP. That he lost to a relatively weak Democrat should show you how far the state has moved. Unless Obama is going down in flames(ie. loses the state by 18 points or more) she will have no difficulty. Remember that Easley won by 13 points when Bush was winning by the same margin in 2004.

As for AL, LA and MS, those are moving GOP for the same reason Oklahoma is. While the black population is increasing in Al and MS, it is more than made up for by the fact that whites who are likely to vote democratically(ie. highly educated professionals) move out to places like NC or SC. They are a lost cause for the Democrats, but one that will be made up for them when South Carolina and Georgia follow VA and NC in the next ten years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And of course Erskine Bowles and John Edwards flamed out in North Carolina as well.  And Elaine Marshall has just marginal chances against Erskine bowles.  All I am saying is that FL is one of the few states in the south that the Dems will win.  Immigration as well as the Black population helps the Dems in the South not just one and that's in FL, AR, and MO.

[5280]

I could see post 2024 elections end up being like this when trends continue over time.

[TeePee4Prez]

I could see post 2024 elections end up being like this when trends continue over time.

Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania trending GOP just won't happen.  Michigan and Ohio are possible because poorer voters will have to eventually relocate to the Sunbelt in turn making them more liberal.  The remaning voters will be more established and conservative similar to western PA in the 1980s till today.  As for PA, well, western PA is losing population due to deaths, but the more liberal East is growing and more similar to New Jersey, Delaware, Marlyand, and New York politically.  Western PA will mirror the Upper South. 

Neither will South Carolina trending Dem.  It is too conservative of a state.

[Dan the Roman]

And of course Erskine Bowles and John Edwards flamed out in North Carolina as well.  And Elaine Marshall has just marginal chances against Erskine bowles.  All I am saying is that FL is one of the few states in the south that the Dems will win.  Immigration as well as the Black population helps the Dems in the South not just one and that's in FL, AR, and MO.

Take a look at state elections. NC, VA, KY and WV are far far more Democratic than Florida. Democrats have nothing in Florida. They just won everything on the ballot more or less in NC and WV. The Republicans lost half, yes half, their seats in the WV state senate in 2008.

[TeePee4Prez]

And of course Erskine Bowles and John Edwards flamed out in North Carolina as well.  And Elaine Marshall has just marginal chances against Erskine bowles.  All I am saying is that FL is one of the few states in the south that the Dems will win.  Immigration as well as the Black population helps the Dems in the South not just one and that's in FL, AR, and MO.

Take a look at state elections. NC, VA, KY and WV are far far more Democratic than Florida. Democrats have nothing in Florida. They just won everything on the ballot more or less in NC and WV. The Republicans lost half, yes half, their seats in the WV state senate in 2008.

Yet, how has the Republican Pres nominee been able to win the past 3 elections in WV?

[Dan the Roman]

And of course Erskine Bowles and John Edwards flamed out in North Carolina as well.  And Elaine Marshall has just marginal chances against Erskine bowles.  All I am saying is that FL is one of the few states in the south that the Dems will win.  Immigration as well as the Black population helps the Dems in the South not just one and that's in FL, AR, and MO.

Take a look at state elections. NC, VA, KY and WV are far far more Democratic than Florida. Democrats have nothing in Florida. They just won everything on the ballot more or less in NC and WV. The Republicans lost half, yes half, their seats in the WV state senate in 2008.

Yet, how has the Republican Pres nominee been able to win the past 3 elections in WV?

The same way the GOP did in AR.  What I was saying is that there was zero evidence of any Republican trend at the state level in West Virginia, and that below the Presidential level, 2008 was a catastrophe for the GOP. They lost their only statewide office and half their seats in the state senate. If McCain's victory was meaningful one would expect him to have coattails but he did not. Manchin did.

The GOP has been able to win one office. What people are doing is the equivalent to suggesting that Massachusetts was becoming a safe GOP state because Romney won in 2002 without looking at any other elections.

[pbrower2a]

And of course Erskine Bowles and John Edwards flamed out in North Carolina as well.  And Elaine Marshall has just marginal chances against Erskine bowles.  All I am saying is that FL is one of the few states in the south that the Dems will win.  Immigration as well as the Black population helps the Dems in the South not just one and that's in FL, AR, and MO.

Take a look at state elections. NC, VA, KY and WV are far far more Democratic than Florida. Democrats have nothing in Florida. They just won everything on the ballot more or less in NC and WV. The Republicans lost half, yes half, their seats in the WV state senate in 2008.

Yet, how has the Republican Pres nominee been able to win the past 3 elections in WV?

Culture. A southern moderate populist (LBJ, Carter, Clinton) can win in the Inner Arc of the South and border area (LA, AR, TN, KY, WV); a liberal d@mnyankee (Kerry, Obama) can't. This also applies to southern Missouri, usually the difference between D and R.  This area is very conservative in its culture and (except for Louisiana) unfriendly to anything exotic. Al Gore forgot his political roots there -- and lost every one of those states, including his home state Tennessee. These states attract few Northern retirees (unlike Florida).

Democrats can win local and statewide elections (including Governor and Senate) -- but as people with strong ties to the area.  People in this region seem to be Democrats on local issues but Republicans on national issues -- unless the Democrat is one of their own. 

[DemocratsVictory2008]

This is a trend map for the next decade or two. The states not colored will remain similar to the way they are now.

[DemocratsVictory2008]

Wyoming was meant to be neutral

[DownWithTheLeft]

NJ goes GOP

[You kip if you want to...]

NJ goes GOP

Lol. Just... lol.

[aspiderleftalone]

Dem Gains:

Nevada
New Mexico
Arizona
New Hampshire
Virginia
Texas (a little)
Utah (a little)

Rep Gains:

West Virginia
Ohio
New Jersey (a little)

[War on Want]

NJ goes GOP

It could happen but if it does there will be a very large amount of states that would flip before NJ would.

[You kip if you want to...]

Dem Gains

Indiana
Iowa
New Mexico
New Hampshire
Nevada
Arizona
Texas
Virginia


Rep gains

Florida
Minnisota
Wisconsin
Ohio