who is more likely to win?

[© tweed]

I started a million letters to you but I couldn't finish any of them

[WalterMitty]

corzine.

nj loves electing horrible people.

[Tender Branson]

Deeds.

[Eraserhead]

I'm still having a tough time seeing Corzine actually lose.

[Lunar]

This is a cool question, because institutionally, McDonnell and Corzine should be favored, but they are both faced against strong opponents [in Corzine's case, this may be relative].

I'd hazard a guess at this stage that Corzine may be 5% more likely to win at this stage, but who knows. 

[East Coast Republican]

Unfortunately, Corzine is more likely to win.

The demographics and past trends of NJ are stacking the deck against Christie though he does have a 10% lead.

McDonnell an always rely on a vibrant Republican base to help him in VA-something that isn't really all that present in NJ.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Creigh Deeds is more likely to win.

[Boris]

Corzine hasn't lead in a poll since January...He could definitely still pull off the victory but he's currently having trouble breaching the 40% mark while Christie has settled around the 50% threshold. The odds are definitely against Corzine.

Who knows how VA will turn out? Still high levels of undecideds in every poll, could basically swing any way.

[Rob]

Corzine hasn't lead in a poll since January...He could definitely still pull off the victory

He needs to throw more money into the race.

[© tweed]

Corzine hasn't lead in a poll since January...He could definitely still pull off the victory

He needs to throw more money into the race.

it has been theorized that the market crash hit his interests hard

[Keystone Phil]

Corzine hasn't lead in a poll since January...He could definitely still pull off the victory

He needs to throw more money into the race.

it has been theorized that the market crash hit his interests hard

Yet, ironically, helps his chances. The NJ Dems are already saying NJ needs someone who understands business leading the state, not a (hypocritical, in their opinion) corruption crusader (Christie).

[Magic 8-Ball]

corzine.

nj loves electing horrible people.

This.  Accidentally voted Deeds, though.

[Keystone Phil]

The fact that Deeds leads in this poll is surprising for several reasons:

1) We have plenty of people here that are more sensible with their predictions. I just figured it was more than fifteen people.

2) I'd expect even the Dem hacks that might admit Corzine is "in trouble" would still realize the state he represents and that his opponent is far less of a threat than the Republican running in Virginia.