2012 Republican Rundown: The Final Matchup: Romney v. Palin

[Erc]

The Final Four had one very close race...

Sarah Palin (55%) def. Tim Pawlenty (45%)

and one not so close:

Mitt Romney (72%) def. Mike Huckabee (28%)


Now, this doesn't appear to bode so well for somebody in the finals...let's see how close the contest actually turns out.

Which of these is most likely to be the Republican nominee in 2012? 
(Please pick the person most likely to become the nominee, not who you personally want to become the nominee)

Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska

or

Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts

[Magic 8-Ball]

Romney.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Mitt Romney. Of course, my opinion on Romney winning this should be obvious (take a look at my screen name).

[Vepres]

Of course Romney. He is the only likely contender who has appeal outside the south and rural Midwest (both in a general election and primary).

[Rob]

The base loves Palin and doesn't care for Romney. In Republican primaries, the base wins.

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Romney, for sure. If Pain-lin Palin won I'd be very surprised.

Ether way, Obama would probably beat Romney and would knock Palin out of the water.

[Vepres]

The base loves Palin and doesn't care for Romney. In Republican primaries, the base wins.

Not necessarily, look at how well McCain did on the pacific coast and the northeast. "The base" in the northeast, Illinois, and the west coast is comprised of libertarians and moderates. In the mountain west, much of "the base" is composed of libertarians. If the primary were just Romney or Palin, Romney would win hands down. Think about it, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois, Michigan, Arizona, Washington, Florida, among others, against North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, and Texas, among others, the outcome is obvious.

[Mr. Morden]

The base loves Palin and doesn't care for Romney. In Republican primaries, the base wins.

Not necessarily, look at how well McCain did on the pacific coast and the northeast. "The base" in the northeast, Illinois, and the west coast is comprised of libertarians and moderates. In the mountain west, much of "the base" is composed of libertarians. If the primary were just Romney or Palin, Romney would win hands down. Think about it, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois, Michigan, Arizona, Washington, Florida, among others, against North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, and Texas, among others, the outcome is obvious.

I actually *don't* think it's so obvious that Romney would best Palin in a national GOP primary if such a vote were held today.  Look at the few 2012 GOP primary polls we've had so far.  Palin and Romney are about even with each other (and with Huckabee).....Romney may even be a bit behind.

But Palin is far far more likely to self destruct on the campaign trail before February 2012 (IMHO), so I'd definitely give Romney the edge, if we're projecting out into the future as to what we think will happen.

(Also, Romney is about 100% certain to run.....really, he's already running.  With Palin, I still think there's a chance she'll serve out a full second term as governor, and not run until 2016.)

[tmthforu94]

My pick should come as no suprise...
Governor Mitt Romney. He's the only candidate who can win the Mideast, Northeast, and the Pacific West.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The base loves Palin and doesn't care for Romney. In Republican primaries, the base wins.

Not necessarily, look at how well McCain did on the pacific coast and the northeast. "The base" in the northeast, Illinois, and the west coast is comprised of libertarians and moderates. In the mountain west, much of "the base" is composed of libertarians. If the primary were just Romney or Palin, Romney would win hands down. Think about it, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois, Michigan, Arizona, Washington, Florida, among others, against North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, and Texas, among others, the outcome is obvious.

Ask yourself how many of those moderates and libertarians are actually still registered Republicans come 2012. Yeah, it could be very few. If that's the case, Palin wins it and we get slaughtered in 2012.

[The Mikado]

The Republican Party's saving grace is that there is no way in Hell that Sarah Palin could keep a national campaign running throughout the year-long primary process.  She'd screw up dramatically repeatedly.  I mean Mike Huckabee, a much more skilled politician, managed to make himself unnominatable (if I may coin the word) between December 2007 and January 2008.  Palin wouldn't even make it that far.

[GLPman]

As much as I can't imagine Palin getting the nomination, I think it's definitely possible, particularly because she appeals to the base of the party and Romney doesn't. At the same time, though, Romney appeals to more people, specifically moderates, which is why I voted for him in this poll, and I think that's what will probably push him ahead and allow him to get the nomination.

[Vepres]

The base loves Palin and doesn't care for Romney. In Republican primaries, the base wins.

Not necessarily, look at how well McCain did on the pacific coast and the northeast. "The base" in the northeast, Illinois, and the west coast is comprised of libertarians and moderates. In the mountain west, much of "the base" is composed of libertarians. If the primary were just Romney or Palin, Romney would win hands down. Think about it, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Illinois, Michigan, Arizona, Washington, Florida, among others, against North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, and Texas, among others, the outcome is obvious.

Ask yourself how many of those moderates and libertarians are actually still registered Republicans come 2012. Yeah, it could be very few. If that's the case, Palin wins it and we get slaughtered in 2012.

Your fallacy is you assume Republicans will continue to decline at the same rate as they have the past three years. I'm actually surprised how many moderates they (NRCC) are supporting or pushing to enter various open seat races. If this proves successful and/or Obama and the Democratic congress screw up, the GOP will see a surge in party id polls.

Already the most of the leaders and elites are pushing social conservatives to the side. Look at Haley BarbourLindsey Graham , John Cornyn, these are social conservatives but they're basically saying social conservatives should have far less influence in the party and far fewer candidates than they did in 2006 and 2008. Even the RNC chairman, Michael Steele who, except for his "apology" Rush Limbaugh, is a mainstream, level headed, and in touch with political realities (for a party chairman that is).

Don't assume Republicans will continue to decline. I'm not saying they won't, but there are clear indicators they won't, and I didn't even mention the difficulties Obama will have with Sotomayor, health care, cap-and-trade, GM, and immigration with not only Republicans but moderates in his own party.

[cindywho2212]

Mitt Romney.

[GLPman]

Romney will be cursed with bad timing.  The economic crisis that would have made him an appealing nominee arrived after the 2008 primary and will probably lift before they choose their next one.  If instead social issues become the main concern of conservatives come primary time, I think she'll eat him alive.

This is a very valid point. The opposite could happen, too, however: the economy could not recover by much and, in turn, more voters would turn to Romney over Palin.

[big bad fab]

So, is it over ?

[Erc]

Yes.

Gov. Mitt Romney (MA), with 71.4% of the vote, is this forum's choice for most likely Presidential Nominee in 2012.

[Lincoln Republican]

Missed the vote, but I pick Romney, the new TR.

[pbrower2a]

I pick Mitt Romney as the new Alf Landon.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I pick Romney as the new Wendell Wilkie

[ej2mm15]

Plain at first, but with out any otyhers Romney. Though, if Palin remains a star powered celecrity... guess which hockey mom, moose hunter is our republican nominee

[Lincoln Republican]

The Republicans will never pick Palin as the Presidential nominee, nor, ever again, obviously, as the Vice Presidential nominee.

If you thought the character assassination and smear campaigns came out during her Vice Presidential run, that would pale in comparison to what would happen to her if she were the Presidential nominee.

she would be about the most inept, ill prepared, unqualified, nominee in history, stumbling from one disaster to the next during the campaign.

In short, she would be easy pickins'.     

[Lincoln Republican]

Romney, should he become the nominee, may not win the Presidency in 2012, depending, of course, on the state of the economy, however, he would run a highly professional, disciplined, hard hitting, tough campaign.

When he is hit, he would hit back. 

In scrums and interviews, he would be effective and knowledgeable.

All of the above, Palin would not.