Alan Keyes Surges in Illinois + NH, FL, NJ, PA, NM, and IN polls

[The Vorlon]

Illinois

Alan Keyes Surging in Illinois - Gains 7%.. now trails by just 45%... !!!

Obama 69 / Keyes 24 in Illinois Senate

Ok..actually its a Prez poll too.. Kerry 55 / Bush 38

Illinois Bot poll with Kerry 52 / Bush 42

I actually just made up the "surging" bit about Keyes.... BTW... 

Florida

ARG says:

Kerry 47, Bush 45 in Florida

This represents a 1% gain for Senator kerry versus the last (sept 20th) ARG Poll of Florida

New Hampshire

Bush 47 Kerry 47 in New Hampshire says ARG

This represents a 4% gain for Senator kerry versus the last (Sept 17th) ARG Poll of Florida

New Jersey

Quinnipiac says Kerry is up 3%

Current Poll

Likely Voters (Previous Poll by Quinnipiac)

Kerry 49 (48)
BUsh 46 (48)

Kerry improves 3%

Registered Voters (Previous Poll by Quinnipiac)

Kerry 44 (47)
BUsh 42 (43)

Bush improves 2%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11376.xml?ReleaseID=408

Pennsylvania

University Poll

Kerry 50.3%
Bush 43%

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/10-06-2004/0002266789&EDATE=

New Mexico

Kerry 46
Bush 43

http://www.abqjournal.com/elex/235650elex10-06-04.htm

Indiania

Bush 61
Kerry 33

http://www.indystar.com/articles/2/184193-3402-098.html

[MODU]

Higher than I would expect, but I still have Kerry winning in PA.  However, we have a month to go . . . so who knows what will happen in that state.

DID YOU HEAR THAT GUYS???  Just one more month to go until we can get back to our normal lives.  HAHAHA

[Umengus]

At the beginning of this campaign, I tought that PA was for Kerry as OH was to bush but I think today that it's not really the case: PA is safer for Kerry than Ohio for Bush.

[Shira]

New Jersey

Quinnipiac says Kerry is up 3%

Cuurrent Poll

Likely Voters (Previous Poll by Quinnipiac)

Kerry 49 (48)
BUsh 46 (48)

Kerry improves 3%

Registered Voters (Previous Poll by Quinnipiac)

Kerry 44 (47)
BUsh 42 (43)

Bush improves 2%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11376.xml?ReleaseID=408

Pennsylvania

University Poll

Kerry 50.3%
Bush 43%

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/10-06-2004/0002266789&EDATE=

New Mexico

Kerry 46
Bush 43

http://www.abqjournal.com/elex/235650elex10-06-04.htm

Indiania

Bush 61
Kerry 33

http://www.indystar.com/articles/2/184193-3402-098.html

Do you have the numbers of previous poll by University Poll?

[WalterMitty]

bush is doing better in nj than pa?  doubtful.

[Shira]

Pennsylvania

University Poll

Kerry 50.3%
Bush 43%

Is it PA or DE ?

[Democratic Hawk]

I like the poll giving Kerry a 7-point lead in Pennsylvania but that state's gonna be tight til the end. I think Kerry will win New Jersey by a bigger margin that Pennsylvania.

Better for Kerry  to be up in the polls than down in such vital states.

Dave

[Friar]

I don't have 'poll evidence' but Kerry is making huge inroads in PA, OH and MO.

My sources are quite positive PA is in the bag and we're actually ahead in OH and tied in MO. The dem ground game in these states is astounding sofar and Bush have no idea of what is about to hit him on Nov2.

Mark my word - if Kerry wins Friday's debate in MO, my sources are positive that we will win the state.

P.S. They are also gunning for the big 3 (PA, OH, FL) and there is a ood chance Kerry wins them all.

Bush is on the defence and his 'major speech' today was nothing but rallying the faithfuls

[AuH2O]

Your sources are obviously full of crap. Kerry is not tied in MO, he is not within a few points in MO, he is not going to win MO.

He also is not ahead or even tied in OH.

[Democratic Hawk]

Your sources are obviously full of crap. Kerry is not tied in MO, he is not within a few points in MO, he is not going to win MO.

He also is not ahead or even tied in OH.

Last polls I saw Kerry was +1 in Ohio and Bush was +2 in Missouri.

Dave

[AuH2O]

So the "last poll" you "saw" is conclusive evidence?

Please limit yourself to serious remarks.

[Friar]

Your sources are obviously full of crap. Kerry is not tied in MO, he is not within a few points in MO, he is not going to win MO.

He also is not ahead or even tied in OH.

Uh uh...

say whatever you want but I am not Philip and my posts are not crap

If you check my past post you will find none of them is BS. Most of what I've said turned out to be true. So, don't dismiss my post without even knowing me. I will say no more.

I am here to have good debate without insults.

I will say it once again and you can bookmark my post and read it again on Nov3rd:

If Bush does not win the next 2 debates handily he will lose big. He will lose PA, OH and FL and there is no come back for him.

Bush needs to recover quick. Why do you think his major speech was scheduled for today? The Big Mo is with Kerry and next week it might be too late for Bush.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Kerry has the momentum

[AuH2O]

Your sources are obviously full of crap. Kerry is not tied in MO, he is not within a few points in MO, he is not going to win MO.

He also is not ahead or even tied in OH.

Uh uh...

say whatever you want but I am not Philip and my posts are not crap

If you check my past post you will find none of them is BS. Most of what I've said turned out to be true. So, don't dismiss my post without even knowing me. I will say no more.

I am here to have good debate without insults.

I will say it once again and you can bookmark my post and read it again on Nov3rd:

If Bush does not win the next 2 debates handily he will lose big. He will lose PA, OH and FL and there is no come back for him.

Bush needs to recover quick. Why do you think his major speech was scheduled for today? The Big Mo is with Kerry and next week it might be too late for Bush.

Sorry, but I don't think you have any kind of track record to be talking about "sources" and such as if they are conclusive.

Other posters have provided inside-type info and then been shown to be correct. I have not seen that in your case.

[A18]

hahahahahahahahahaha!!!

Bush is going to lose BIG in Florida?! In Ohio?! TIED in Missouri?!

Now that's hilarious!

[A18]

By the way guys, my secret sources tell me that Bush is tied in California. If Kerry does not win the debate handily on Friday, my secret sources say we're gonna win and win big.

Now, obviously the polls don't reflect what any of my secret sources say. But don't worry; it'll happen. They're my secret sources.

[Bogart]

Your sources are obviously full of crap. Kerry is not tied in MO, he is not within a few points in MO, he is not going to win MO.

He also is not ahead or even tied in OH.

Uh uh...

say whatever you want but I am not Philip and my posts are not crap

If you check my past post you will find none of them is BS. Most of what I've said turned out to be true. So, don't dismiss my post without even knowing me. I will say no more.

I am here to have good debate without insults.

I will say it once again and you can bookmark my post and read it again on Nov3rd:

If Bush does not win the next 2 debates handily he will lose big. He will lose PA, OH and FL and there is no come back for him.

Bush needs to recover quick. Why do you think his major speech was scheduled for today? The Big Mo is with Kerry and next week it might be too late for Bush.

While all three of the "big 3" seem to be close and closing for the moment, I disagree that it is Bush who must win handily, but rather Kerry.  True, he looked good last week, but I think it was in comparison to Bush looking terrible. And, Bush didn't really damage himself that badly. I think Kerry needs to clobber Bush and not just win by default.  Remember, debates historically don't impact the outcome of elections in the absence of a clobbering.

[Huckleberry Finn]

It seems that Bush is going to get more in New Jersey than in 2000. Any possible reasons?

However he won't win there.

It's rather surprising that Kerry is still alive in New Mexico, Ohio and West Virginia. It gives a hope that he will take a lead in Wisconsin and Iowa again.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

It seems that Bush is going to get more in New Jersey than in 2000. Any possible reasons?

Security and concern over terrorism in middle class families.  Thats it.  Bush will wind up with 42-43 probably. 

[ATFFL]

It seems that Bush is going to get more in New Jersey than in 2000. Any possible reasons?

Security and concern over terrorism in middle class families.  Thats it.  Bush will wind up with 42-43 probably. 

Might be more if the NJ state democratic party does not get its act together and energize the base.  Bush would do better through lower democratic turnout.