National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2020)
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  National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2020)
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Author Topic: National Presidential Primary County and State Maps (1912-2020)  (Read 317968 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #400 on: March 12, 2016, 09:22:30 PM »

One trend we're seeing that's very interesting is that well-off suburbs and urban areas are going way more to Clinton than Sanders. Even though places right outside Boston are very liberal, high socioeconomic status voters are more pro-establishment, probably because they don't feel the economic pain that people who are in less comfortable positions do. Very liberal places like Hanover, NH and Ann Arbor, MI were much less pro-Bernie than I expected. I honestly expected the Boston area to be much more for Sanders than it was, but the same kind of trend took place in the Detroit area, and I expect the same kind of thing in other metropolitan areas. This primary may be just as much about class as it is about ideology.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #401 on: March 13, 2016, 05:23:01 PM »

Hawaii GOP caucus:





Kansas Dem caucus by SD:

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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #402 on: March 13, 2016, 10:30:14 PM »

Realist, can you calculate the GOP results by congressional district in MA for me.  Hate not having it on the map.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #403 on: March 13, 2016, 10:52:30 PM »

Realist, can you calculate the GOP results by congressional district in MA for me.  Hate not having it on the map.

Dave has the results on the main site. Trump won every CD:

DistrictTrumpKasichRubioCruz
148.59%16.69%16.06%12.19%
247.65%16.64%17.38%11.77%
349.59%17.14%17.52%
9.61%
445.07%19.99%20.79%
9.12%
545.73%21.82%19.54%
8.06%
651.79%17.62%16.83%
8.87%
742.36%21.72%22.54%
7.87%
850.97%17.69%17.78%
8.46%
953.42%15.86%15.51%
9.32%
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #404 on: March 13, 2016, 11:06:00 PM »

Realist, can you calculate the GOP results by congressional district in MA for me.  Hate not having it on the map.

Dave has the results on the main site. Trump won every CD:

DistrictTrumpKasichRubioCruz
148.59%16.69%16.06%12.19%
247.65%16.64%17.38%11.77%
349.59%17.14%17.52%
9.61%
445.07%19.99%20.79%
9.12%
545.73%21.82%19.54%
8.06%
651.79%17.62%16.83%
8.87%
742.36%21.72%22.54%
7.87%
850.97%17.69%17.78%
8.46%
953.42%15.86%15.51%
9.32%
Thanks, I don't have access to the data sadly, so any states that have voted already, can you pm me the results by congressional district if I don't have them on the map. 
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kichinichini
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« Reply #405 on: March 16, 2016, 09:35:14 AM »

JerryArkansas, I like the maps. Do you have all the raw numbers for the districts so far? I'm curious about who the most popular candidate is per district regardless of party. I have my own ideas based on what I've cobbled together so far (Michigan SoS site is excellent).

Obviously that can only go so far since there are different methods for each party/state. Cruz seems to have the most votes overall in each Maine district due to the caucuses which almost certainly would not be the case if there were primaries there.

Thanks.
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Craziaskowboi
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« Reply #406 on: March 16, 2016, 10:26:23 AM »

Looks like my district in Georgia had a plurality for Donald Trump, and a slight majority for Hillary Clinton.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #407 on: March 16, 2016, 01:46:33 PM »



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darthebearnc
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« Reply #408 on: March 16, 2016, 03:29:33 PM »


Beautiful maps. I believe my precinct went for Sanders and Trump, as far as I can tell.
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Miles
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« Reply #409 on: March 16, 2016, 04:39:54 PM »

Do those include the absentee/early votes?
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #410 on: March 16, 2016, 04:52:18 PM »

Do those include the absentee/early votes?

No, I didn't partition them.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #411 on: March 16, 2016, 04:56:40 PM »

By the way, here are precinct results in North Carolina for all of the statewide races. It's very nice; you can zoom in all the way and click on each of the precincts for individual precinct results.

http://www.wral.com/news/state/page/15500774/
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Hydera
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« Reply #412 on: March 17, 2016, 07:39:05 AM »
« Edited: March 17, 2016, 07:40:36 AM by ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) »



Found an old map from a much older thread, Compared to 2008, those angry Appalachian democrats who voted for Clinton because they disliked Obama, voted for Bernie because they were locked into a closed primary and couldnt vote for Trump.

Nate Cohn noted this in a tweet where conservative dems who liked trump but forgot they were registered dems, shows higher protest votes than states that had open primaries on both sides.


https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/710191116839161858
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Nathan
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« Reply #413 on: March 17, 2016, 09:50:53 AM »
« Edited: March 17, 2016, 10:18:57 AM by Bow all your heads to our adored Mary Katherine. »


The precinct I used to represent in the Amherst Town Meeting was the only one in Amherst Trump won...

And the Democratic map really drives home how bizarre the geography on that side turned out. e.g. in the Five Colleges area Sanders's best Amherst precincts are the UMass ones but his best Northampton precincts aren't the Smith ones.
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RBH
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« Reply #414 on: March 17, 2016, 12:12:38 PM »

The precinct I used to represent in the Amherst Town Meeting was the only one in Amherst Trump won...

And the Democratic map really drives home how bizarre the geography on that side turned out. e.g. in the Five Colleges area Sanders's best Amherst precincts are the UMass ones but his best Northampton precincts aren't the Smith ones.

Dem Primary results from Seven Sisters college precincts

Mount Holyoke, Precinct D: Sanders 319, Clinton 248

Smith, Prec 2B: Sanders 316, Clinton 182 and Prec 4A: Sanders 372, Clinton 203.

Wellesley, Precinct G: Clinton 360, Sanders 176

Two things about the Wellesley results

1) Her best Wellesley result appears to be in Precinct F, winning 369-126. That precinct also hosts Babson College, a private business school

2) Obama defeated Clinton in Wellesley in 2008, despite that whole "Clinton is an alumni" thing.

I've thought there might be a Public/Private split for Sanders performance in college areas. Looking at results from Cambridge, where Clinton won..

Prec 2/2 (MIT): 153-94 Sanders
Prec 2/3 (MIT): 203-202 Clinton
Prec 7/2 (Harvard campus): 314-271 Clinton
Prec 7/3 (Harvard campus): 217-179 Clinton
Prec 8/1 (The Quad): 439-348 Clinton
Prec 10/2 (The Quad): 784-536 Clinton

Sanders did carry the precinct in Boston around Harvard Stadium

My theory on public/private might be hard to prove/disprove.. but it's that Sanders policies on free public college drives up his numbers on public college campuses that he doesn't see on private college campuses for obvious reasons.

It'd be interesting to see if Sanders numbers around smaller private colleges lag because those small private universities may fare badly if students could go to a public university for nothing/almost nothing. Since the Southern primaries ended, I'd think the best "well but" involves small private colleges getting hit by the idea (instead of talking about HBCUs).
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RBH
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« Reply #415 on: March 17, 2016, 08:54:34 PM »

extra datapoint for the Dem side: Sanders carried the Holy Cross campus (prec 6-4) 146-79 and Clark University (prec 8-3) 253-96. But Clinton won Worcester.

On the Rep side: Kasich carried Wellesley and Babson. Trump/Rubio tied at Smith. Trump carried Mount Holyoke. Rubio carried the MIT/Harvard precincts on his way to losing Cambridge. Trump carried Holy Cross with 32 of 75 votes and Clark U with 7 of 21 votes.

"College areas carried by Trump in the R Primary" seems like it'd be a fascinating list.
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Nathan
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« Reply #416 on: March 18, 2016, 09:28:01 AM »

Funny, I'd expect the sort of woman who goes to Smith or Mount Holyoke yet votes in Republican primaries to be a Kasich or Kasich/Rubio swing voter. The three explanations that come to mind immediately are that there are so few of these people that it's really people immediately around Smith and Holyoke who were voting for Trump, that some or many of the voters were trolling or voting for a weak GE candidate, or that I've fundamentally misunderstood some aspect of the culture of these schools.+
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catographer
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« Reply #417 on: March 20, 2016, 01:43:38 AM »
« Edited: March 20, 2016, 01:49:42 AM by Megameow »

Is anybody working on a Kansas Democratic caucus county map? Or is it impossible to get because of whatever reason? I'm sure people here would love it but it seems like it won't be possible.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #418 on: March 20, 2016, 10:49:05 AM »

Is anybody working on a Kansas Democratic caucus county map? Or is it impossible to get because of whatever reason? I'm sure people here would love it but it seems like it won't be possible.

They only released results by Senate District, a map which I already posted.
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nclib
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« Reply #419 on: March 20, 2016, 02:00:36 PM »

What are the best/worst Sanders/Clinton results by county in Maine and Minnesota (the other states without data on Atlas)?
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« Reply #420 on: March 20, 2016, 03:51:46 PM »

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realisticidealist
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« Reply #421 on: March 20, 2016, 10:36:48 PM »

What are the best/worst Sanders/Clinton results by county in Maine and Minnesota (the other states without data on Atlas)?

MN
Best Sanders county: Stevens County (83%)
Best Clinton county: Traverse County (61%)

ME
Best Sanders county: Waldo County (73%)
Best Clinton county: Aroostook County (45%)
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catographer
Megameow
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« Reply #422 on: March 20, 2016, 10:43:30 PM »

Is anybody working on a Kansas Democratic caucus county map? Or is it impossible to get because of whatever reason? I'm sure people here would love it but it seems like it won't be possible.

They only released results by Senate District, a map which I already posted.

Thanks for that. I also have a question about that; your map for the 2008 Dem primary has districts in Kansas that I assume are Senate districts, but the Wichita and Kansas City areas don't have that cluster of small districts that your 2016 map has. Are they consolidated or is your 2008 map of something other than Senate districts?
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #423 on: March 20, 2016, 10:51:51 PM »

Is anybody working on a Kansas Democratic caucus county map? Or is it impossible to get because of whatever reason? I'm sure people here would love it but it seems like it won't be possible.

They only released results by Senate District, a map which I already posted.

Thanks for that. I also have a question about that; your map for the 2008 Dem primary has districts in Kansas that I assume are Senate districts, but the Wichita and Kansas City areas don't have that cluster of small districts that your 2016 map has. Are they consolidated or is your 2008 map of something other than Senate districts?

Looks like I consolidated them back then. Not sure exactly; it was a while ago.
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Skye
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« Reply #424 on: March 22, 2016, 05:51:34 PM »

Hey I hadn't really paid attention to this thread. This is great! Keep up the good work.
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