If the GOP can't win back the statehouse in VA this year,

[sg0508]

is it safe to say that the party is near unelectable now in the state and over just a few year period?  Northern VA is killing the party and the moderates are voting for democrats now.  Even John Kerry gave George Bush some mild problems there in 2004, losing by just 8 pts.  Since then, the GOP hasn't won diddly there and it the story is the same every time- The democrats win huge margins in northern VA, make inroads to the suburbs and win moderates by huge margins.

This has happened to us now in CO and other states that we used to own. 

[Lunar]

I'd attribute it to a well-run Deeds campaign before I started making broader claims -- I mean, Kaine and Warner got elected there while the GOP was still doing fine in the state.

[Rowan]

If the Dems can't win the statehouse in NJ this year, is it safe to say the party is unelectable in the state?

[Lunar]

If the Dems can't win the statehouse in NJ this year, is it safe to say the party is unelectable in the state?

I think the two Democratic Senators and Obama's victory there makes that a horrible comparison

[minionofmidas]

is it safe to say that the party is near unelectable now in the state and over just a few year period?

No.

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Yes... but the margins are still not where you're "unelectable".

[Rowan]

If the Dems can't win the statehouse in NJ this year, is it safe to say the party is unelectable in the state?

I think the two Democratic Senators and Obama's victory there makes that a horrible comparison

I was obviously mocking the implication in the original post that you can draw big conclusions from one race.

[Brittain33]

If the Dems can't win the statehouse in NJ this year, is it safe to say the party is unelectable in the state?

I think the two Democratic Senators and Obama's victory there makes that a horrible comparison

I was obviously mocking the implication in the original post that you can draw big conclusions from one race.

I think "unelectable" is always a problem word to use, but if McDonnell loses it is the final and probably most important confirmation that the current Republican platform and coalition in Virginia (no new taxes ever, cut taxes, unite with social conservatism) can not win against competent Democrats any more. This is not one race in a vacuum but the last in a series of races that make Virginia look like a bluer version of Kansas.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, the Republicans still control the House and de facto control the Senate in Virginia, so it's not like they're unelectable, even if Deeds loses.

[pogo stick]

How about this ,In total the republican party is unelectable?

[Vepres]

Neither party is unelectable in any state.  That's not going to change any time soon.

This. Jim Douglas anyone?

[Saxwsylvania]

If Deeds win it is because he is a conservative Democrat.  Warner won for the same reason; Kaine won because his opponent ran a horrible campaign with ads comparing him to Hitler.  Virginia is still a Republican state.

[Holmes]

As much as Kentucky is still a Democratic state.

[Saxwsylvania]

As much as Kentucky is still a Democratic state.

Perhaps I should rephrase that.  Virginia is a Republican state because it voted for Obama less than the average.  At least you should concede that it is not a Democrat Party stronghold.

[Holmes]

By 0.2%. But I don't disagree. It would be a bad sign for the Democrats if the trend reverses.

[socaldem]

Bob McDonnell is definitely a stronger than average Republican.  He has a nearly ideal profile for a statewide run.

That said, Creigh Deeds is on some level, an ideal counterpoint to him in that McDonnell's Hampton Roads background leaves an opening for a Democrat with greater rural appeal in Applacia.  However, will suburbanites who are used to voting Dem now crossover?

Neither candidate, from what I can tell, is particularly charismatic, etc.  Both are milque-toast and middle-of-the-road for their parties. 

I think the GOP's strength in special elections in Fairfax County and Arlington may suggest that they do have the ability to win back voters up in NoVa and other suburbs.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

In Creigh Deeds, the Democrats have nominated their most electable candidate.  If he defeats Bob McDonnell in November, it will not reflect on the overall fortunes of the GOP in Virginia.

That said, the GOP is losing ground in Virginia.  In 2005, they held an 8-3 majority in the House, and a 2-0 majority in the Senate at the national level; now they have a 6-5 deficit in the House and a 0-2 deficit in the Senate.  They held the Attorney Generalship of Virginia, a 61-37-2 majority in the House of Delegates, and a 23-17 Majority in the State Senate; now their Delegates lead has been cut to 54-44-2, and they have a 21-19 deficit in the State Senate.

The areas that are growing in Virginia are becoming more Democratic; in each of the last 8 elections, the Democrats have increased their numbers in Fairfax County.  The Republicans need to find a way to stop the hemorrhaging in Northern Virginia, or they will be in significant trouble Statewide down the road.

[Brittain33]

I think the GOP's strength in special elections in Fairfax County and Arlington may suggest that they do have the ability to win back voters up in NoVa and other suburbs.

I thought they did well because turnout was very low and the Republican base vote was enough to be competitive.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I think the GOP's strength in special elections in Fairfax County and Arlington may suggest that they do have the ability to win back voters up in NoVa and other suburbs.

I thought they did well because turnout was very low and the Republican base vote was enough to be competitive.

This is true. The two Supervisor elections had 16-18% turnout, which was about 1/5 the turnout of the 2008 general election. Republicans are much better at getting their base out in these low-turnout elections with Democrats in power in Washington. Democrats are battling voter fatigue. Northern Virginia has seen five elections since 2008 -- the 46th special, Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chair, Braddock district Supervisor, the Alexandria City Council election, and the Democratic primary. It's kind of ridiculous.

[sg0508]

The GOP seems to be overestimating the effectiveness of the "old brand" in VA. The state has moderated and the population has changed.  Like GM, they didn't stay current with changes in the state demographics.  The democrats have and now, they're winning everything.

I will say this though, if there is a state to model how effective one party has been in running statewide elections, it's VA democrats.  They have run some outstanding campaigns there starting with the election of Warner in 2001 and let's not forget, he gave John Warner quite a challenge in the 96 Senate race.

[Хahar 🤔]

How about this ,In total the republican party is unelectable?

How about this ,Speak English?