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Author Topic: Can Obama win the white vote in 2012?  (Read 2946 times)
CJK
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« on: June 12, 2009, 07:41:03 pm »
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Does anybody think that Obama can win the non-Hispanic white vote in 2012, or is this demographic officially unwinnable for the Dems from now on?

(The Democrats haven't won the white vote since 1964)
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« Reply #1 on: June 12, 2009, 07:50:04 pm »
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Probably not. I mean, if he wins a really big victory, maybe. If the Republicans nominate Palin or Huckabee and the country is generally in good shape and Obama gets 57+% of the vote. But that's not all that likely.
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Rowan
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« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2009, 07:52:56 pm »
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Highly highly unlikely.
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« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2009, 08:38:36 pm »
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If he gets 60% of the national popular vote, probably. 55% or lower=No way
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« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2009, 09:05:37 pm »
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Probably not...
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« Reply #5 on: June 12, 2009, 09:59:44 pm »
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He only needs a 7 point swing among white voters to win them, based on 2008's exit polls, and seeing how he's already maxed out amongst blacks and Hispanics, most of his improvement in 2012 should come from white voters.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2009, 11:49:40 pm »
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Yes.

If there is a strong third party candidate on the right, Obama could win a plurality.
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« Reply #7 on: June 13, 2009, 12:06:26 am »
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If TX was not part of the union, he would have come closer this year. Why the hell are the whites there so Republican anyway? With people pouring into the state you'd think they'd moderate like VA and NC but they stay rock solid.
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« Reply #8 on: June 13, 2009, 02:47:30 am »
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If TX was not part of the union, he would have come closer this year. Why the hell are the whites there so Republican anyway? With people pouring into the state you'd think they'd moderate like VA and NC but they stay rock solid.

I think it may have to do with the fact that Texas is right next door to Mexico. I know, that sounds crazy, shouldn't they be MORE accepting of our Latino brothers and their beautiful tan skinned sisters? You would think. But you see there is this f#$ked up movement in the US called "protectionism" that justifies their backwards racist views through the facade of economics. They exist on both sides, Left and Right. On the Right they arouse fear that the "brown wave" from the south will take everybody's jobs to justify their prejudices against Mexicans. I visit West Texas occasionally and all I hear from white people is "We need to prevent the brown niggers from taking our jobs! Lock em up! Muricah! F$#k yeah!"
Anyway, these masters of words twist their racist bastard beliefs into some sort of "save Muricah" bullsh#t so they can in turn parlay their racism onto the populace. It is the result of years of fearmongering that have resulted in high support for anti-immigration in the name of "economic security" in many white Texans. That's just my theory on why they're so stubborn.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #9 on: June 13, 2009, 02:52:16 am »
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Obama probably won't win the white vote in 2012. Let's be honest, this is still America and we're still pretty screwed up when it comes to race relations. The extreme right will still be able to convince enough of white America that the "black is taking over". It was pretty damned hard for WASP Democrat males to win the white vote before Obama, I don't know why it'd be any easier.
On the other hand, there is the case of White Guilt to consider.......
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« Reply #10 on: June 13, 2009, 03:49:40 am »
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Can he? YES WE CAN.
It's obviously quite unlikely.
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« Reply #11 on: June 13, 2009, 10:16:47 am »
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I love how it always boils down to race for the lefties. Democrats NEVER win the white vote any more, it's not because Obama is black. Get over yourself.
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« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2009, 12:44:06 pm »
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If his approval ratings are above 60% and the economy is growing, then he has a about a 50/50 chance of winning the white vote, especially if his opponent is Palin or Huckabee. If his opponent is Jindal, he's almost assured to win the white vote.

And regarding Texas, the extreme Republicanism of Texas whites has more to do with oil and economics than it does with race and immigration.
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« Reply #13 on: June 13, 2009, 02:58:20 pm »
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He'd need to break 60% nationally, at least.  Who was the last Democrat to win the white vote?  LBJ?
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« Reply #14 on: June 13, 2009, 03:00:25 pm »
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1964.
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« Reply #15 on: June 13, 2009, 04:47:07 pm »
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White guilt exists only among white liberals.  Notice, too, that there is no such thing as Black guilt or Hispanic guilt, ostensibly because these races lack feelings.

I lawled. But in a neutral manner.

If his approval ratings are above 60% and the economy is growing, then he has a about a 50/50 chance of winning the white vote, especially if his opponent is Palin or Huckabee. If his opponent is Jindal, he's almost assured to win the white vote.

And regarding Texas, the extreme Republicanism of Texas whites has more to do with oil and economics than it does with race and immigration.

This is also true.
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Coburn In 2012
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« Reply #16 on: June 13, 2009, 06:31:55 pm »
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Maybe.  With the way the liberal leftist controlled media wring their hands over the blacks you will probably have more lilly livered pc types being goated into feeling guilty about slavery and voting for the messiah.

What?  you didn't vote for GOD in 2008?Huh?  Well its 2012 and now you have a second chance!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It won't be that open but that will be the jist of it
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« Reply #17 on: June 14, 2009, 01:49:00 am »
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Yes, it's possible.   Though the people in states that think they're still fighting the civil war will bring it down quite a bit of course, making it unlikely (though possible overall).

Obama already won the "white vote" in many of the Democratic states, and was very close even in some of the swing states.

Looking over the CNN data

Over 60% of the white vote
DC
Hawaii
Vermont

55-59%
Maine
Massachusetts
Oregon
Rhode Island
Washington

50-54%
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Illinois
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New York
Wisconsin

45-49%
Indiana
Maryland
Montana
New Jersey
Ohio
Pennsylvania

40-45%
Arizona
Florida
Kansas
Missouri
Nebraska
Nevada
New Mexico
North Dakota
South Dakota
West Virginia


Less than 40%
Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Georgia
Idaho
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Oklahoma
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virgina
Wyoming



So, in a "Whites only" election Obama wouldn't have won, but still would have gotten more EVs than McCain actually got. (222 if my count is correct).  Not nearly as extreme a situation as our racial revisionists would have you believe.


To contrast, and the data is a little more limited, for McCain's performance among non-white/non-Hispanics, there are no states where he won a majority.   Because of this, I have to adjust the scale of the list downward quite a bit.

Over 40%
Alaska (other)
Arizona (Latino)
California (other)
Florida(Latino)

30-39%
California (Asian)
Colorado(Latno)
Hawaii(Asian)
Michigan(Latino)
New Mexico(Latino)
Texas(Latino)
Virginia(Latino)

20-29%
California(Latino)
Indiana(Latino)
New Jersey(Latino)
New Mexico(Other)
Pennsylvania(Latino)

10-19%
Hawaii (other)

Less than 10%
All states(African American)

No need for a map on this one ("No whites" election) as it's so one sided.


Best and worst states for each candidate by race:

McCain:
White
Best: Alabama/Mississippi (88%)
Worst: D.C. (12%)

African-American
Best:Wisconsin(9%)
Worst:New York(0%)

Asian  (only two states with exit poll data)
Best: California(35%)
Worst:Hawaii(30%)

Latino
Best:Florida/Arizona(42%)
Worst:New Jersey(21%)

Other:
Best:Alaska(46%)
Worst:Hawaii(18%)

Obama:
White
Best:D.C.(86%)
Worst:Alabama(10%)

African-American
Best:New York(100%)
Worst:Wisconsin(91%)

Asian (only two states with exit poll data)
Best: Hawaii (68%)
Worst:California(64%)

Latino
Best:New Jersey(78%)
Worst:Arizona(56%)

Other
Best:Hawaii(80%)
Worst:Alaska(52%)
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Wiz from Wis in Mass
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« Reply #18 on: June 16, 2009, 05:03:26 pm »
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Nice to see that Montana and Indiana were close because of the white vote, not in spite of it.
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« Reply #19 on: June 16, 2009, 05:12:06 pm »
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Since this is a idiotic question i'll contribute  to the stupidness.

Will Huckabee win the Mormon vote?

Will Stark win the Jewish Vote?

Will Norm Coleman win the muslim vote?

Will Arlen Specter win the popular vote?
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Rowan
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« Reply #20 on: June 16, 2009, 05:51:02 pm »
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Wait, did I read that right? McCain got 0% of the black vote in NY. What the hell??
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Rowan
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« Reply #21 on: June 16, 2009, 08:57:14 pm »
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I love how it always boils down to race for the lefties. Democrats NEVER win the white vote any more, it's not because Obama is black. Get over yourself.

Please post something useful.

Okay noob.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #22 on: June 16, 2009, 09:15:09 pm »
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Wait, did I read that right? McCain got 0% of the black vote in NY. What the hell??

It's an exit poll. Plus, they probably didn't try too hard on the exit poll for NY because it was irrelevant.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: June 17, 2009, 03:19:53 pm »
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Obama probably won't win the white vote in 2012. Let's be honest, this is still America and we're still pretty screwed up when it comes to race relations. The extreme right will still be able to convince enough of white America that the "black is taking over". It was pretty damned hard for WASP Democrat males to win the white vote before Obama, I don't know why it'd be any easier.
On the other hand, there is the case of White Guilt to consider.......

White guilt exists only among white liberals.  Notice, too, that there is no such thing as Black guilt or Hispanic guilt, ostensibly because these races lack feelings.

Oh, come on. Liberals don't feel any more guilt than conservatives.
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« Reply #24 on: June 17, 2009, 03:36:03 pm »
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Will Huckabee win the Mormon vote?

Most likely, unless Utah wants to vote for Obama....
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