Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 16, 2014, 02:26:41 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Bacon King, Dallasfan65)
| | |-+  Powell v. Clinton - 1996
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: Powell v. Clinton
Powell   -10 (32.3%)
Clinton   -15 (48.4%)
Perot   -6 (19.4%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 28

Author Topic: Powell v. Clinton - 1996  (Read 1806 times)
Hermit
Guest
« on: October 06, 2004, 02:19:43 pm »

Back in '96, there was some talk of trying to nominate Colin Powell as the challenger. Let's say that he does run, and is somehow nominated as well. Does he beat Clinton? If so, who runs against him in 2000?
Logged
TexasGurl
texasgurl24
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8385
Japan


Political Matrix
E: -9.57, S: -7.91

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2004, 03:03:43 pm »
Ignore

Not a chance of beating bill.
Clinton would have still won the black vote.
Logged
PBrunsel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9626


View Profile WWW
« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2004, 09:24:17 pm »
Ignore

No win for Powell. He would probably break 200 electoral votes, but Powell woulkd lose. Clinton was unbeatable in 1996.
Logged


"I know that the Lord is always on the side of the right. But it is my constant anxiety and prayer that I and this nation should be on the Lord's side."
-President Abraham Lincoln, December 1862
opebo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47611


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2004, 10:09:58 pm »
Ignore

I'm not sure there would have been much of an ideological gap between these two.  But Clinton would've won easily.  Powell wouldn't get as many states as Dole, as places like Mississippi, South Carolina, etc, would've gone to  Clinton.
Logged

The essence of democracy at its purest is a lynch mob

True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28204
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2004, 10:21:55 pm »
Ignore

I'm not sure there would have been much of an ideological gap between these two.  But Clinton would've won easily.  Powell wouldn't get as many states as Dole, as places like Mississippi, South Carolina, etc, would've gone to  Clinton.

What makes you think that the south wouldn't have been ready to vote for a black Republican in 1996?  A black Democrat would have had zero chance to win the south and a black Republican would not have done well in the primaries, but I can't see any large scale white flight to Clinton.  At worst, those voters would have gone to Perot, and Powell would have easily been able to attract enough moderates from Clinton to make up the difference.  Powell would have done better than Dole, but not enough to win the election.


States in green are Powell's pickups over Dole.
Logged

I wonder why Van Heusen never bothered to make women's clothing?
opebo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47611


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2004, 10:33:33 pm »
Ignore

I'm not sure there would have been much of an ideological gap between these two.  But Clinton would've won easily.  Powell wouldn't get as many states as Dole, as places like Mississippi, South Carolina, etc, would've gone to  Clinton.

What makes you think that the south wouldn't have been ready to vote for a black Republican in 1996?  A black Democrat would have had zero chance to win the south and a black Republican would not have done well in the primaries, but I can't see any large scale white flight to Clinton.  At worst, those voters would have gone to Perot, and Powell would have easily been able to attract enough moderates from Clinton to make up the difference.  Powell would have done better than Dole, but not enough to win the election.


States in green are Powell's pickups over Dole.

Well, you may be right, but I was assuming a white flight to Clinton.  I tend to assume a pretty high degree of racism in the South.  But you may be right that they'd go for Perot - still that could give Clinton a plurality in some additional Southern states.
Logged

The essence of democracy at its purest is a lynch mob

True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28204
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2004, 11:01:41 pm »
Ignore

Well, you may be right, but I was assuming a white flight to Clinton.  I tend to assume a pretty high degree of racism in the South.  But you may be right that they'd go for Perot - still that could give Clinton a plurality in some additional Southern states.

The only really close southern Republican state in the actual 1996 race was Georgia.  However, the racist rednecks in general tend to believe in the America First trade protectionism that was a central theme of Perot, so a good part of those who might abandon the Republicans because of the race of their candidate already had.
Logged

I wonder why Van Heusen never bothered to make women's clothing?
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72197
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2004, 11:09:48 pm »
Ignore

but keep in mind that Powell was pro-choice, and many of those southern Republicans are single issue abortion voters. Phillips would've done a lot better and would've picked up those voters. So Clinton could've picked up a few southern states.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Mr. Fresh
faulfrisch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1518
United States
Political Matrix
E: -0.45, S: 2.17

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2004, 11:10:20 pm »
Ignore

However, the racist rednecks in general tend to believe in the America First trade protectionism that was a central theme of Perot,

And you're calling them racist??
Logged
Nym90
nym90
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15188
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2004, 11:58:35 pm »
Ignore

However, the racist rednecks in general tend to believe in the America First trade protectionism that was a central theme of Perot,

And you're calling them racist??

He said "the racist rednecks". That doesn't mean that all rednecks are racist; he's just talking about a certain group of rednecks, not all inclusive.
Logged
Vincent
azpol76
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 440


Political Matrix
E: 0.88, S: -2.26

View Profile
« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2004, 12:04:08 am »
Ignore

but keep in mind that Powell was pro-choice, and many of those southern Republicans are single issue abortion voters. Phillips would've done a lot better and would've picked up those voters. So Clinton could've picked up a few southern states.

With a pro-choice Republican there probably would be a significant pro-life third party candidate. Perhaps Keyes or Buchanan(and I dont think he would run on a "safe-states" stratagey in this scenario.)
Logged
Mr. Fresh
faulfrisch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1518
United States
Political Matrix
E: -0.45, S: 2.17

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2004, 12:28:38 am »
Ignore

However, the racist rednecks in general tend to believe in the America First trade protectionism that was a central theme of Perot,

And you're calling them racist??

He said "the racist rednecks". That doesn't mean that all rednecks are racist; he's just talking about a certain group of rednecks, not all inclusive.

...I know what he said, but they way he said it "rednecks."  Sounded kind of funny when he said the "racist rednecks."  What the heck is he doing?  Complimenting them?  No, that's degrading those people, so that's why I said:

And you're calling them racist?
Logged
Bro-mentum
tomm_86
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1174
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2004, 05:48:31 am »
Ignore

However, the racist rednecks in general tend to believe in the America First trade protectionism that was a central theme of Perot,

And you're calling them racist??

He said "the racist rednecks". That doesn't mean that all rednecks are racist; he's just talking about a certain group of rednecks, not all inclusive.

...I know what he said, but they way he said it "rednecks."  Sounded kind of funny when he said the "racist rednecks."  What the heck is he doing?  Complimenting them?  No, that's degrading those people, so that's why I said:

And you're calling them racist?

He should've been clearer, I doubt he meant to generalize a huge group of people, at least I hope he didnt...
Logged

True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28204
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2004, 07:23:25 pm »
Ignore

There are both racist rednecks and non-racist rednecks.  There also plenty of racist Yankees, so the south is hardly the only place where the color of Powell's skin would cost him votes for no good reason.
Logged

I wonder why Van Heusen never bothered to make women's clothing?
NYGOP
nygop
Full Member
***
Posts: 143


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2004, 07:43:27 pm »
Ignore

I'd vote POwell
Logged
PBrunsel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9626


View Profile WWW
« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2004, 09:07:37 pm »
Ignore

My map (and I amy be too nice to General Powell):



Bill Clinton/Al Gore: 314

Colin Powell/Orrin Hatch: 224
Logged


"I know that the Lord is always on the side of the right. But it is my constant anxiety and prayer that I and this nation should be on the Lord's side."
-President Abraham Lincoln, December 1862
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72197
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2004, 09:18:40 pm »
Ignore

I don't think Powell would be stupid enough to run with Hatch.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
PBrunsel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9626


View Profile WWW
« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2004, 09:54:34 pm »
Ignore

I don't think Powell would be stupid enough to run with Hatch.

I originaly had Pete Wilson as his running mate when I wrote it down, but wasn't he sick in 1996 so he had to drop out of the Republican Primary?
Logged


"I know that the Lord is always on the side of the right. But it is my constant anxiety and prayer that I and this nation should be on the Lord's side."
-President Abraham Lincoln, December 1862
PBrunsel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9626


View Profile WWW
« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2004, 10:24:38 pm »
Ignore

I ran this on President Forver, not what I expected to say the least:



Bill Clinton/Al Gore: 345 Electoral Votes; 48% of the popular vote

Colin Powell/Orian Hatch: 193 Electoral Votes; 40% of the popular vote

Ross Perot/Pat Choate: 0 Electoral Votes; 9% of the popular vote

Harry browne/Jo Jorgensen: 0 Electoral votes; 1% of the popular vote
Logged


"I know that the Lord is always on the side of the right. But it is my constant anxiety and prayer that I and this nation should be on the Lord's side."
-President Abraham Lincoln, December 1862
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72197
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: October 08, 2004, 12:00:05 am »
Ignore

Kemp would be a good running mate for him as well, except isn't Powell from New York as well? Of course they would have no chance at winning New York anyway, so being ineligible for the EVs wouldn't be an issue.

Otherwise I think Powell would want a conservative on the ticket to balance it out but not an extremist to scare off potential voters. So I'd bet on a conservative but not extremist senator from a swing state.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
PBrunsel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9626


View Profile WWW
« Reply #20 on: October 08, 2004, 09:41:11 am »
Ignore

Kemp would be a good running mate for him as well, except isn't Powell from New York as well? Of course they would have no chance at winning New York anyway, so being ineligible for the EVs wouldn't be an issue.

Otherwise I think Powell would want a conservative on the ticket to balance it out but not an extremist to scare off potential voters. So I'd bet on a conservative but not extremist senator from a swing state.

Like Jim Talent
Logged


"I know that the Lord is always on the side of the right. But it is my constant anxiety and prayer that I and this nation should be on the Lord's side."
-President Abraham Lincoln, December 1862
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines