Besides Minnesota, what "purplish" states are moving towards the GOP?

[sg0508]

While we haven't won MN since 72, we've been close several times now and we've consistently elected Republican Governors (outside of Ventura) and we've had some republican Senators too.  It's also interesting how Obama's win over McCain here trailed the rest of the Midwestern states that typically vote democratic.

What other bluish or purple states though are trending towards the GOP? Are there any anymore?

CO, NV, AZ, OR, WA, MI, OH, VA, PA and NH are all heading the opposite ways.

[hcallega]

I wouldn't say that Minnesota is trending GOP. Rather I would say that it is a more traditional Democrat state rather than a new Democratic state. By that I mean that it is more in line with someone like Hubert Humphrey than someone like Barack Obama. Colorado and Virginia are states where Humphrey would never win, but Obama's appeal is less to working-class and labor and more to suburban and rising middle-class (if that even exists anymore). I think Hillary would dominate in Minnesota however.

[pogo stick]

Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Too bad they are losing population fast.

[Vepres]

Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, and Missouri (only traditional swing state Obama lost).

I think the mountain west may trend Republican starting in 2010, but we will have to wait and see.

[5280]

Wisconsin, Michigan, that's all I can think of

[Badger]

Wisconsin, Michigan, that's all I can think of

Atlas swing and trend maps for both states contradict this.

MO is a possibility, but it's Republican trend has been ongoing for a couple decades, culminating in 2008 where the once definative swing state bucked the national trend (albeit very very narrowly). I'm not sure if that trend is actively continuing at this point though.

[sg0508]

I'm surprised some are saying Michigan.  To me, it seems like that state is moving the opposite direction.  The conservative movement of the GOP has hurt us there, bigtime.  It doesn't look like we'll compete for the Gov seat this year either, which is pathetic.  In a presidential race, we haven't won there since 1988 and except for Spence' Abraham's one term, we can't elect a Senator there either.

To me, Michigan is moving the opposite way.

[War on Want]

Ohio, Missouri, maybe Michigan, maybe Iowa, and maybe Winsconsin. Ohio tops this list because of the bleed off in industrial regions, and most of the rural areas moving away from the Democrats even further. In Missouri there is just too much of an exodus in rural areas away from the Democrats, that outpaces small amounts of urban growth. Michigan is a hard case because most people there are not likely to blame the economic troubles on the Democrats, if anything I expect some people to flip back to the Democrats. The Republicans going so hard against the auto bailout and unions won't help them there. Still with Detroit and other cities declining they might have a shot.  Iowa would not have been exceptionally strong for Obama if it wasn't for McCain going against ethanol. I could see Iowa trending towards the Republicans from now on. Winsconsin is somewhat similar to Iowa in my explanation for why it is moving towards the Republicans.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Missouri seems to be becoming more Republican on the Presidential level races, but other than that, I can't think of any state that is moving towards the Republicans. I'm not convinced MN is trending Republican at all, and Michigan and Wisconsin I don't see trending Republican in any seriously noticeable way.

As for Iowa and Ohio, I would say those are actually trending Democratic and not Republican. I'm not sure how you could say otherwise.

[ilikeverin]

1) I don't think Minnesota is moving more conservative; I think it moved more moderate, and that movement has basically leveled off.
2) Minnesota isn't dying like the rest of the Midwest; our population growth and economic growth are some of the highest east of the Dakotas and north of Tennessee, not that that's saying much.
3) Related to 2, why does everyone assume Minnesota is so working class?  We have the 12th highest per-capita GDP in the country.  Yeah, we have the Iron Range, but it's not very important any more politically.

[Vepres]

I'm surprised some are saying Michigan.  To me, it seems like that state is moving the opposite direction.  The conservative movement of the GOP has hurt us there, bigtime.  It doesn't look like we'll compete for the Gov seat this year either, which is pathetic.  In a presidential race, we haven't won there since 1988 and except for Spence' Abraham's one term, we can't elect a Senator there either.

To me, Michigan is moving the opposite way.

If McCain hadn't abandoned it, it would've been closer than Pennsylvania, IMO.

[War on Want]

I'm surprised some are saying Michigan.  To me, it seems like that state is moving the opposite direction.  The conservative movement of the GOP has hurt us there, bigtime.  It doesn't look like we'll compete for the Gov seat this year either, which is pathetic.  In a presidential race, we haven't won there since 1988 and except for Spence' Abraham's one term, we can't elect a Senator there either.

To me, Michigan is moving the opposite way.

If McCain hadn't abandoned it, it would've been closer than Pennsylvania, IMO.

Maybe, but it doesn't change the fact that it probably won't move significantly towards the Republicans.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Aside from Missouri I can't think of a single "purple" state that could be seen as going for the GOP now.

[5280]

Aside from Missouri I can't think of a single "purple" state that could be seen as going for the GOP now.

You say that but they will after a few more years of Big O in office.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Aside from Missouri I can't think of a single "purple" state that could be seen as going for the GOP now.

You say that but they will after a few more years of Big O in office.

Well, that's not really the question.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'm surprised some are saying Michigan.  To me, it seems like that state is moving the opposite direction.  The conservative movement of the GOP has hurt us there, bigtime.  It doesn't look like we'll compete for the Gov seat this year either, which is pathetic.  In a presidential race, we haven't won there since 1988 and except for Spence' Abraham's one term, we can't elect a Senator there either.

To me, Michigan is moving the opposite way.

Who said we aren't contesting the Governors mansion in MI. We sure as hell are going to contest it we can't afford not too. The reason we got only in the low 40's was because McCain couldn't contest there with his limited resources so he pulled out and that depressed turnout amongst the Republicans. If we had put as much effort there as McCain did in PA then we would have won 45 or 46% of the vote there. Which means it would be voting close to the national average and would thus be considered to be trending Republican. I am tired of conservativism getting blamed for all our problems. In the late 70's and early 80's you had a liberal Republican Governor William Milikin with an overwhelmingly Dem legislature. The Dems controlled every thing else as well. The Conservatives were completely shut out. It wasn't untill conservatives retook the party that we regained the Legislature, gained that Senate Seat, and took back the Governorship from the Dems in 1990. To blame all our problems in the state on conservatism is plain stupid.

[Dan the Roman]

Abandoning a state doesn't have that big of an effect. I doubt anyone who would have come out for McCain failed to come out for Wahlberg. And McCain abandoned it not because he ran out of money but because it was hopeless and he didn't have the money to waste. He kept spending in Minnesota until the end and outspent Obama.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'm surprised some are saying Michigan.  To me, it seems like that state is moving the opposite direction.  The conservative movement of the GOP has hurt us there, bigtime.  It doesn't look like we'll compete for the Gov seat this year either, which is pathetic.  In a presidential race, we haven't won there since 1988 and except for Spence' Abraham's one term, we can't elect a Senator there either.

To me, Michigan is moving the opposite way.

If McCain hadn't abandoned it, it would've been closer than Pennsylvania, IMO.

Glad somebody said it!  I hope the GOP throws more money at PA.  The Keystone State has basically been a vaccum for GOP money over the past few election cycles and produced paltry results.  Winning by 11 points with all the money McCain threw here says a lot.  I'm thinking it could have been 15 and a few western PA county flips if not for the last minute Hail Mary pass.

I've said it before, PA only appears more conservative than it really is because they cover more  square miles and Democrats are more concentrated.   

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Abandoning a state doesn't have that big of an effect. I doubt anyone who would have come out for McCain failed to come out for Wahlberg. And McCain abandoned it not because he ran out of money but because it was hopeless and he didn't have the money to waste. He kept spending in Minnesota until the end and outspent Obama.

McCain was trailing by 4 points when he pulled out. He was behind further in MN and PA at that point. Why did he throw money at ME-02? You don't take money from a state with 17 electors that you are trailing 4 or 5 points and throw it at one elector that you are trailing by 10 in. Wasting money never seemed to be a concern for McCain so thats a lame excuse. He didn't even acknowledge what was going on in Indiana and his VA campaign was rather lame. He also abandoned NV and CO again because he was short of money. History will regard McCain's campaign as the most disorganised and ineffective in recent history. Your Walberg connection is full of irony, since I blame his loss on McCain's decision. People wouldn't come out for a House race if they don't plan to vote for Presidency. Some Republicans felt betrayed others just so depressed about our chances there they stayed home, taking what should have been 46% for McCain and turning it into 42%.

[Dan the Roman]

Abandoning a state doesn't have that big of an effect. I doubt anyone who would have come out for McCain failed to come out for Wahlberg. And McCain abandoned it not because he ran out of money but because it was hopeless and he didn't have the money to waste. He kept spending in Minnesota until the end and outspent Obama.

McCain was trailing by 4 points when he pulled out. He was behind further in MN and PA at that point. Why did he throw money at ME-02? You don't take money from a state with 17 electors that you are trailing 4 or 5 points and throw it at one elector that you are trailing by 10 in. Wasting money never seemed to be a concern for McCain so thats a lame excuse. He didn't even acknowledge what was going on in Indiana and his VA campaign was rather lame. He also abandoned NV and CO again because he was short of money. History will regard McCain's campaign as the most disorganised and ineffective in recent history. Your Walberg connection is full of irony, since I blame his loss on McCain's decision. People wouldn't come out for a House race if they don't plan to vote for Presidency. Some Republicans felt betrayed others just so depressed about our chances there they stayed home, taking what should have been 46% for McCain and turning it into 42%.

He was down about 4 points before the financial crisis hit. Then he fell to being down closer to 10. That said, i think it was more of a gut decision. With the Palin pick and the decision to go nuclear in the last month, McCain pretty much made clear that Joe the Plumber was his target contiuncy. In Michigan the group the GOP has to turn out is high-income whites in places like Macomb and the other Detroit suburbs, and my guess is that anecdotal data(given the targeting of ME-2 I would say McCain's gut instinct) showed Palin was not playing well with them, but was with Democrats in Western Pennsylvania and northern Maine.

Its very hard to untangle what might have been in 2008, because the VP pick was such a point of departure that a very different campaign would likely have followed a different pick. That said I think 2004 is a worthwhile example. Everything pretty much broke for President Bush that year in Michigan. A Gay Marriage Amendment, a liberal elitist opponent, unpopular Democratic Governor, and he still came up short.

Is Michagan a state that might go Republican? Yes. Will it ever be the state that determines an election? No. You would need a Bush 88, or the equivalent Obama 2008 sort of result for that to happen.

Just a note though. McCain's percentage is just 0.3% above Walter Mondale's in 1984. Mondale is someone else who would have done better had not pulled out/run a better campaign/had more luck.

[pbrower2a]

Abandoning a state doesn't have that big of an effect. I doubt anyone who would have come out for McCain failed to come out for Wahlberg. And McCain abandoned it not because he ran out of money but because it was hopeless and he didn't have the money to waste. He kept spending in Minnesota until the end and outspent Obama.

McCain was trailing by 4 points when he pulled out. He was behind further in MN and PA at that point. Why did he throw money at ME-02? You don't take money from a state with 17 electors that you are trailing 4 or 5 points and throw it at one elector that you are trailing by 10 in. Wasting money never seemed to be a concern for McCain so thats a lame excuse. He didn't even acknowledge what was going on in Indiana and his VA campaign was rather lame. He also abandoned NV and CO again because he was short of money. History will regard McCain's campaign as the most disorganised and ineffective in recent history. Your Walberg connection is full of irony, since I blame his loss on McCain's decision. People wouldn't come out for a House race if they don't plan to vote for Presidency. Some Republicans felt betrayed others just so depressed about our chances there they stayed home, taking what should have been 46% for McCain and turning it into 42%.

I am in the district (MI-07) that Tim Walberg lost. Walberg was a right-wing nutcase who won 40% of the vote in a GOP primary and barely beat a Republican moderate, and then ran against a disorganized Democratic opponent in 2006. In 2008 he was so far right that he could be defeated in an R+5 district. 

[Scam of God]

Aside from Missouri I can't think of a single "purple" state that could be seen as going for the GOP now.

You say that but they will after a few more years of Big O in office.

I'm sad to see how little you value your principles to sell them so cheaply to the Republicans.

[Derek]

Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa are all going to the right. VA, AZ, CO, NV, NM, OR, WA, and NH are going left. OHIO is NOT going left!!!

[HAnnA MArin County]

Depends on what you consider moving towards. If it's by swing, here's how much each "purple state" swung in 2008:

*Arkansas: R + 10.10
*Arizona: D + 1.99
*Ohio: D + 6.68
*Minnesota: D + 6.76
*Missouri: D + 7.07
*Florida: D + 7.82
*Pennsylvania: D + 7.82
*New Hampshire: D + 8.24
*Iowa: D + 10.21
*North Carolina: D + 12.76
*Michigan: D + 13.04
*Wisconsin: D + 13.53
*Colorado: D + 13.62
*Virginia: D + 14.50
*Nevada: D + 15.09
*New Mexico: D + 15.92
*Montana: D + 18.13
*Indiana: D + 21.17

As for trends, here's how each state has trended in the past three elections:

Arizona
04-08: R + 7.74
00-04: R + 1.22
96-00: R + 0.51

Arkansas
04-08: R + 19.83
00-04: R + 1.34
96-00: R + 14.39

Colorado
04-08: D + 3.89
00-04: D + 6.66
96-00: D + 1.01

Florida
04-08: R + 1.91
00-04: R + 2.03
96-00: D + 2.29

Indiana
04-08: D + 11.98
00-04: R + 2.07
96-00: R + 2.06

Iowa
04-08: D + 0.48
00-04: D + 1.98 
96-00: R + 2.02

Michigan
04-08: D + 3.31
00-04: D + 1.25
96-00: R + 0.07

Minnesota
04-08: R + 2.97
00-04: D + 4.04
96-00: R + 5.73

Missouri
04-08: R + 2.66
00-04: R + 0.89
96-00: D + 1.64

Montana
04-08: D + 8.40
00-04: D + 7.54
96-00: R + 14.20

Nevada
04-08: D + 5.36
00-04: D + 3.92
96-00: D + 3.44

New Hampshire
04-08: R + 1.49
00-04: D + 5.61
96-00: R + 3.22

New Mexico
04-08: D + 6.19
00-04: D + 2.12
96-00: D + 0.74

North Carolina
04-08: D + 3.03
00-04: D + 3.36
96-00: R + 0.14

Ohio
04-08: R + 3.05
00-04: D + 4.38
96-00: R + 1.87

Pennsylvania
04-08: R + 1.91
00-04: D + 1.30
96-00: D + 2.97

Virginia
04-08: D + 4.77
00-04: D + 2.80
96-00: D + 1.92

Wisconsin
04-08: D + 3.80
00-04: D + 3.13
96-00: R + 2.11

[Bo]

Missouri, maybe Florida.