Texas WILL Stay Republican

[Coburn In 2012]

Not all the liberals here are arrogant but many are and are saying the messiah is going to win texas in 2012.  ROFLMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

On what planet?  Texas is the conservative heartland unless illegal immigrants are bussed across teh border (lol) to vote it will be R.

Here is my question though.  What REpublican would be weakest in Texas?  The strongest would be someone like Coburn, Demint, Huckabee palin or some other strongly pro family pro military and pro america REpublican.  Romney is all those things I truely beleive but he has the taint of mass and might not be well regarded among christians for being a mormon.  (I think he was a rino in mass but has had a chance of heart and is firmly conservative now.)

what do you people think about texas in 2012.

[tmthforu94]

Collins or Snowe would struggle there.
If Obama lets all the illegal immigrants gain citizenship, that will produce huge numbers for Democrats in the Southwest. Texas would be a toss-up state, possibly lean Obama.

[5280]

It will stay Republican in 2012.  That's like saying California will vote for Republican in 2016, not going to happen.

[Coburn In 2012]

Collins or Snowe would struggle there.
If Obama lets all the illegal immigrants gain citizenship, that will produce huge numbers for Democrats in the Southwest. Texas would be a toss-up state, possibly lean Obama.

OMG you know what?  I could see him trying to weasle some thing like this through. automatic citizenship for illegals and a free ride to the polls.  wow...that would be similar to how Kennedy stole the 1960 election with daileys "help".  DemocRATs are scary.

[tmthforu94]

Collins or Snowe would struggle there.
If Obama lets all the illegal immigrants gain citizenship, that will produce huge numbers for Democrats in the Southwest. Texas would be a toss-up state, possibly lean Obama.

OMG you know what?  I could see him trying to weasle some thing like this through. automatic citizenship for illegals and a free ride to the polls.  wow...that would be similar to how Kennedy stole the 1960 election with daileys "help".  DemocRATs are scary.

Uhh
I think Kennedy would have still won without Illinois.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Collins or Snowe would struggle there.
If Obama lets all the illegal immigrants gain citizenship, that will produce huge numbers for Democrats in the Southwest. Texas would be a toss-up state, possibly lean Obama.

OMG you know what?  I could see him trying to weasle some thing like this through. automatic citizenship for illegals and a free ride to the polls.  wow...that would be similar to how Kennedy stole the 1960 election with daileys "help".  DemocRATs are scary.

Uhh
I think Kennedy would have still won without Illinois.

Yes Nixon needed Illinois and either NJ, MO, or TX to win and Kennedy definitively won all three of those fair and square.

As for Texas in 2012. The GOP is beginning to lose ground in Texas but its nothing to fear yet and Texas is the bedrock of the GOP. Romney would do well in the Metropolitan areas and restore the lost ground in the Suburbs. Huck or Palin would continue to lose ground in those areas. Highly rural areas might not be as hot for Romney as they would be for Huck or Palin. Romney was leading in Texas at one point in the race so its not like he would lose enought rural votes to outweigh gains he would make there.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Unless the illegals became citizens, Texas will go Republican

[You kip if you want to...]

2012 probably not, 2016 maybe and even then that'd only be if the dem candidate wins.

[pbrower2a]

Not all the liberals here are arrogant but many are and are saying the messiah is going to win texas in 2012.  ROFLMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

... And not many right-wingers are so disrespectful of others' intelligence to give the name of a state with and a blasphemous reference to Jesus (if one is a Christian) or to the One Yet-to-Come (if one is Jewish) with non-capital letters, using an acronym that has a  letter referring to a pointless profanity, and using multiple exclamation points. Grow up, punk. Comparing any secular political figure to Jesus is sacrilege. 

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Texas has no obvious analogue in any one State. But graft Kansas onto Florida and you get a fair idea of statewide politics in Texas. Let's put it this way: should Obama win Florida by eight points, he wins Texas. Note also that one approval/disapproval poll in Kansas showed a tie in the two in Kansas, and that Obama is quite popular in Florida. I don't know whether either will hold in 41 months, but should either hold, Obama wins Texas.

I didn't say that Obama would win Texas,  but I just showed you how he can. It will be difficult, but it won't be necessary.

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Anyone with a personal scandal. David Vitter, most obviously.

It sounds as if you have some doubts about Texas. If a Republican candidate has doubts about winning Texas, then the election is quite possibly a 450-EV  landslide. By the way -- Texas is more urban than any of the "Clinton-but-not-Obama" states, and less white. As for Mitt Romney being a Mormon... anything Hard Right loses the entire Blue Firewall and consolidates some 2008 gains for Obama.

[The Mikado]

Texas will stay Republican in the short term.*
*At the Presidential level in 2012 barring a landslide.

However, that doesn't mean that it will stay Republican long term.

[Eraserhead]

80% or so of this thread = *facepalm*

[Marokai Backbeat]

Texas will go Republican in 2012 for sure, in 2016 it will be closer. 2020 is the year to look at, because Demographics are weakening the Republicans there, and all over the country, and it's only a matter of time until Texas becomes competitive. It will just take a couple more Presidential election cycles before that happens.

[Vepres]

Texas will go Republican in 2012 for sure, in 2016 it will be closer. 2020 is the year to look at, because Demographics are weakening the Republicans there, and all over the country, and it's only a matter of time until Texas becomes competitive. It will just take a couple more Presidential election cycles before that happens.

Trends don't last forever. I've read articles from just six years ago that said the GOP had a lock on the youth.

[pbrower2a]

I think that Romney may be pretty weak in Texas. I think that we will carry Texas but the margin will depend on what candidate is nominated. I am going to go out on a limb here, I believe that Huckabee in 2012 could outperform McCain in 2008 in the state of Texas.

Winning the 2012 Presidential election won't depend upon winning Texas by a 5% or by a 20% margin. A Republican candidate must breach the firewall of states that haven't voted for a Republican nominee since at least 1992.  That's sixteen years and five Presidential elections, and such is not coincidence.

Huckabee probably won't outperform McCain '08 in 2012; the demographic shifts alone will make Texas closer in 2012 even if such does not put the state in the Obama column.

[Mechaman]

LMAO at all the people on here saying that Texas is the "GOP state". Compared to my state, Texas is liberal. Seriously, stay five minutes in Corpus Christi, Dallas, Austin, or Houston and then come back telling me that Texas is "Super Duper GOP". Need I remind everyone that before 1992 there was never a Democrat that ever got elected president without the votes of Texas (since statehood)? Texas used to be a heavy Democrat state, granted this was when Democrats were the conservative populist party, but still!

Quit acting like this state is solid "GOP". In fact in 1992, Bush I won Texas by only a 3.5% margin. In 1996 it was only a 4.93% margin for Bob Dole (close enough to be called a "close state"). The only reason why Bush II got as many votes from Texas as he did is because he was the home boy and was great with the hispanic population. In 2008 McCain got 55.39% of the vote, which is 8% less than the percent of people in Travis County who voted for Obama! Take a look at the electoral map and tell me how many red counties you see. Texas isn't the "GOP state", it isn't Republican country, it's just the biggest state they got!

[Kaine for Senate '18]

It's 90% likely that Texas goes Republican in 2012; the numbers are on the GOP's side.  By 2024, though, it will likely move into swing state status, just based off of demographics.

[hcallega]

But will it stay part of the republic?

I'd give it a 50-50 chance.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

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Wasn't that what they were saying about Indiana. I remember one of my friends stating that Obama must be dreaming if he tought he could win it, cause it had been a red state (make that blue state on this site) for decades.

Also if Obama is the Democrats' Messiah, is Reagan the Republicans' God?

It'll take a lot for the Republicans to loose in Texas in 2012. Obama has to be very popular, the GOP challenger a very bad candidate, and the Democrats need to campaign like hell. (And it would still be close)

I think the candidate that would do the worst there (of the major names being tossed around) is Palin, because she's made of fail I do not believe that when all is said and done, she will be intelligent or charismatic enough to appeal to anyone but the ultra conservatives. She can't hide from the spotlight if she's on the top of the ticket like she did in 2008. Huckabee would be strong, as he is popular with hispanics, as for Romney, I think he could turn out to be strong there as well.

We'll see what happens in 2012. 

   

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Hey, Obama really swung Dallas and Houston in his direction.  If he is easily re-elected, it's not out of the question for him to focus there and start to swing their suburbs to the Democrats like he was able to do in the Indianapolis suburbs.  They will not give him majorities in 2012, but he could see them go from 65-70% GOP to 55-60% GOP. 

Look at the 2008 Indiana swing map and tell me where Obama picked up the most raw vote totals. 

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Hey, Obama really swung Dallas and Houston in his direction.  If he is easily re-elected, it's not out of the question for him to focus there and start to swing their suburbs to the Democrats like he was able to do in the Indianapolis suburbs.  They will not give him majorities in 2012, but he could see them go from 65-70% GOP to 55-60% GOP. 

Look at the 2008 Indiana swing map and tell me where Obama picked up the most raw vote totals. 

But he wants to kill little babies! I hate Texas.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Texas will go Republican in 2012 for sure, in 2016 it will be closer. 2020 is the year to look at, because Demographics are weakening the Republicans there, and all over the country, and it's only a matter of time until Texas becomes competitive. It will just take a couple more Presidential election cycles before that happens.

Trends don't last forever. I've read articles from just six years ago that said the GOP had a lock on the youth.

Populations don't often switch, the trends just sort of stop in their tracks. The damage already being done to the Republicans is largely irreparable from already existing voters, barring major policy shifts. They can reverse the trends though, with time.

As for young voters, even if you read it, that wasn't true. Young voters were Kerry's best voting group five years ago. There's no evidence to show that the GOP ever had a "lock" on younger voters since, pretty much, the Reagan years.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Hey, Obama really swung Dallas and Houston in his direction.  If he is easily re-elected, it's not out of the question for him to focus there and start to swing their suburbs to the Democrats like he was able to do in the Indianapolis suburbs.  They will not give him majorities in 2012, but he could see them go from 65-70% GOP to 55-60% GOP. 

Look at the 2008 Indiana swing map and tell me where Obama picked up the most raw vote totals. 

But he wants to kill little babies! I hate Texas.

thoughtful and inspiring analysis.... I retort:




ca-ca-poo-poo-pee-pee-pants

[DariusNJ]

In the next election, yes, but long term, with these demographic trends and voting patterns, no.

[DS0816]

Not all the liberals here are arrogant but many are and are saying the messiah is going to win texas in 2012.  ROFLMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

On what planet?  Texas is the conservative heartland unless illegal immigrants are bussed across teh border (lol) to vote it will be R.

…Earth.

Our last two Republican presidents claimed Texas as their home state: 41st president George Bush and 43rd president George W. Bush.

In Election 1988, Bush I saw every state in this nation—sans Tennessee (and District of Columbia)—swing Democratic. 1984 Ronald Reagan ran up the margins so big, in his 49-state wipeout of re-election (vs. unviable Democratic challenger Walter Mondale), all Bush I had to surrender were nine states. He held 40 states and won Election 1988 with 426 electoral votes. (And it helped that Democratic challenger Michael Dukakis, of Massachusetts, was naive. Dukakis did break thru with a few states—such as Iowa, Oregon, and Washington—that set the ground work for others to join in as Democratic regulars—a whole slew of populous states—for the next two decades.)

Bush I's home state did not increase GOP support in 1988; of the 27.5-point margin by which Reagan carried Tex. in 1984, Bush saw Tex. shift nearly 15 points Democratic.

In the 2004 election, Bush II saw a 1.5-point GOP shift, and carried his state by nearly 23 points. In Election 2008, John McCain lost between 11 and 12 points off the GOP brand and Tex. swung in that amount toward Barack Obama and the Democrats.

Considering that Texas's population has dramatically grown, and that many anticipate its 34 electoral votes during the 2000s will increase 10 percent—for 37 or 38 electoral votes—during the 2010s (for Elections 2012, 2016, and 2020), I cannot assume Tex. will remain a Republican bastion. Not especially given the framing of a realigning election, which is what 2008 may very well be. Lots believe that may be the case, given the newest of voters and how largely they went for the Democrats. As well as the Republican brand these days.

The Reagan Revolution is over—and has been for some time. And many, including myself, believe Tex. will move to the status of Battleground State…and on a regular basis. (I also believe that will be the case with a now-Top-15-in-population Arizona.) Tex. used to be a state every winning Democrat carried—up to 1976 Jimmy Carter. Bill Clinton became the first winning Democrat not to win Tex. But both his elections faced Texans (which still counts). And if it turns out Democrats win the bulk (seven) of a ten-elections cycle [2008-2044], just as they did from 1928-1964—while the GOP won seven, of ten, from 1968-2004—the state of Texas will be along for the ride.

I suggest you get some reading material on how the electorate is changing. It will have an impact, in future elections, on the state of Texas. As well as numerous others you may not envision swinging away from the GOP.


For a breakdown on Texas's electorate—over the past two elections—I'll give you some info on the vote as reported in NBC Political News Director Chuck Todd's book, How Barack Obama Won. What is going to have to happen, for the Democrats, is winning over one of the two genders. That would be with women. It happened for Barack Obama in Indiana. And Obama carried the 18-29 vote more dramatically, in comparison to Tex. But look at the 2004 and 2008 votes in the No. 2 most-populated state in the nation…

2004 | 2008 TEXAS VOTE…

PRESIDENT

2004 Bush 61.1% • Kerry 38.2% | 2008 McCain 55.5% • Obama 43.7%

(Shift: D+11.1)

GENDER

2004 Male (45%) 60% • 40% | 2008 Male (47%) 59% • 39%

(Shift: Even)

2004 Female (55%) 63% • 37% | 2008 Female (53%) 52% • 47%

(Shift: D+21)

AGE

2004 18-29 (20%) 59% • 41% | 2008 18-29 (16%) 45% • 54%

(Shift: D+27)

2004 30-44 (29%) 68% • 31% | 2008 30-44 (31%) 52% • 46%

(Shift: D+31)

2004 45-64 (40%) 62% • 37% | 2008 45-64 (39%) 58% • 41%

(Shift: D+8)

2004 65+ (11%) 52% • 48% | 2008 65+ (14%) 66% • 32%

(Shift: R+30)

RACE

2004 Whites (66%) 74% • 25% | 2008 Whites (63%) 73% • 26%

(Shift: D+2)

2004 Blacks (12%) 17% • 83% | 2008 Blacks (13%) 2% • 98%

(Shift: D+30)

2004 Hispanics (20%) 49% • 50% | 2008 Hispanics (20%) 35% • 63%

(Shift: D+27)

PARTY

2004 Republicans (43%) 97% • 3% | 2008 Republicans (34%) 93% • 6%

(Shift: D+7)

2004 Independents (24%) 67% • 31% | 2008 Independents (33%): 62% • 36%

(Shift: D+10)

2004 Democrats (32%) 10% • 90% | 2008 Democrats (33%) 10% • 89%

(Shift: R+1)

IDEOLOGY

2004 Conservatives (45%) 83% • 17% | 2008 Conservatives (46%) 78% • 21%

(Shift: D+9)

2004 Moderates (40%) 48% • 51% | 2008 Moderates (39%) 45% • 53%

(Shift: D+5)

2004 Liberals (14%) 32% • 68% | 2008 Liberals (15%) 12% • 86%

(Shift: D+38)

[Vepres]

DSO816, demographic trends don't last forever. Remember, from 2002 on, Republicans were expected to have a lock on the youth because of the war on terror. Didn't turn out that way.