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Author Topic: Could Walt Minnick survive past the 2010 elections?  (Read 6469 times)
The Arizonan
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« on: June 21, 2009, 12:34:05 pm »
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Could he survive the 2010 congressional elections and become another Jim Matheson or another Dan Boren by acting conservative?
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« Reply #1 on: June 21, 2009, 12:46:31 pm »
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Possible? Yes... Likely? Not at all.
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« Reply #2 on: June 21, 2009, 12:48:15 pm »
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Most likely won't happen. Reps will most likely nominate someone other than Sali so they should be able to take it back.
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« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2009, 12:49:35 pm »
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Well, he is the most conservative Democrat in the House caucus. If he survives 2010, he might make it a couple more terms, but he has the problem of being 66 years old -- unless you're a crotchety old crank like Roscoe Barlett, you don't tend to stick around in the House when you are a freshman who's that old. I'm also not sure he could generate the personal popularity that Matheson has, since Matheson had the advantage of his name being fairly popular, with his father being a governer in the 80s.
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« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2009, 05:55:35 pm »
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Could he survive the 2010 congressional elections and become another Jim Matheson or another Dan Boren by acting conservative?

I'd say he has a 50/50 shot.  It's all dependent on who the Republicans run against him and what the political climate is like. 
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« Reply #5 on: June 22, 2009, 12:07:07 am »
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A slight slight chance maybe, but in a marginal or lean GOP year this will be at the top of the GOP Gain list.
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« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2009, 12:43:08 am »
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He could, but I don't think he will.  This should be the #1 pick up for the GOP in 2010.
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« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2009, 01:52:05 am »
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Bill Sali could run again
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« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2009, 12:11:40 pm »
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Bill Sali could hide and never return
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« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2009, 05:01:50 pm »
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Bill Sali could run again

Though I wouldn't take the risk with him, there is the possibility that Sali could actually beat Minnick. But as I said previously there are far less controversial people who are just as conservative that could take that seat with relative ease.
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« Reply #10 on: June 23, 2009, 01:57:06 am »
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Well, he is the most conservative Democrat in the House caucus. If he survives 2010, he might make it a couple more terms, but he has the problem of being 66 years old -- unless you're a crotchety old crank like Roscoe Barlett, you don't tend to stick around in the House when you are a freshman who's that old. I'm also not sure he could generate the personal popularity that Matheson has, since Matheson had the advantage of his name being fairly popular, with his father being a governer in the 80s.

He's more conservative than Gene Taylor?? Gosh. After reading up on Gene Taylor, that'd be one seat I would like for the Republicans to pick up. That guy is absolutely a DINO. I mean, I understand it's Southern Mississippi and all, but come on! Another one is Dan Boren. These two guys disgust me, as do most conservatives regardless of party.

As for Walt Minnick being more conservative, didn't he endorse Barack Obama well before Super Tuesday? That was a gutsy move to make in one of the reddest states in the nation and the Republicans attacked him for not endorsing Hillary LOL. It is kind of ironic, though, that Obama got his largest margin of victory in the primaries in Idaho. But I digress..

I do think Minnick winning was entirely a fluke, and without Bill Sali, the Republicans will easily take it back in 2010 regardless of the national political climate. I don't think there are that many latte liberals in Boise or enough "transplants" from Washington or even Montana to make Idaho competitive for Democrats anytime soon, and I doubt Minnick can rely on the college kiddies in Latah County to come out and support him like they did for Obama in 2008, who won't be on the ticket this time.

Too many crazy Mormons and far right-wing nut jobs up there in the good ole potato state. 
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« Reply #11 on: June 27, 2009, 04:17:28 am »
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The Mormons are mostly in the other half of the state.

So are the latte liberal Cali transplants, though.
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« Reply #12 on: June 27, 2009, 06:10:50 pm »
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The Mormons are mostly in the other half of the state.

So are the latte liberal Cali transplants, though.

Yea the part represented by Mike Simpson(R). To bad we can't find some one similar to him for the 1st District.
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« Reply #13 on: June 27, 2009, 07:39:17 pm »
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Right now, at 67.2%, Minnick has the lowest party unity score of any member of either party in the House - and by time his re-election comes around, I suspect it will be lower still

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/111/house/party-voters/
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« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2009, 03:30:54 pm »
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Right now, at 67.2%, Minnick has the lowest party unity score of any member of either party in the House - and by time his re-election comes around, I suspect it will be lower still

It'll be funny to see him lose anyway. He's trying to be Sali-lite.
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« Reply #15 on: June 28, 2009, 03:51:36 pm »
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Right now, at 67.2%, Minnick has the lowest party unity score of any member of either party in the House - and by time his re-election comes around, I suspect it will be lower still

It'll be funny to see him lose anyway. He's trying to be Sali-lite.
I'd rather have Sali-lite as my congressman, than Sali any day of the week. I don't think you understand how it is like living in Idaho.
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« Reply #16 on: June 28, 2009, 03:52:56 pm »
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Bill Sali could run again
He could win quite easily too.
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« Reply #17 on: June 28, 2009, 05:12:57 pm »
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I'd rather have Sali-lite as my congressman, than Sali any day of the week. I don't think you understand how it is like living in Idaho.

That may be, but I'm not shedding any tears when this guy gets thrown out on his ass.
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« Reply #18 on: June 28, 2009, 05:58:21 pm »
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I'd rather have Sali-lite as my congressman, than Sali any day of the week. I don't think you understand how it is like living in Idaho.

That may be, but I'm not shedding any tears when this guy gets thrown out on his ass.
You have the ability to do so, meanwhile I will have to deal with Sali or some other clown the GOP here nominates. Tongue
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« Reply #19 on: June 28, 2009, 06:01:55 pm »
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Seriously, though, I would also be upset if I had to share a district with Canyon County. Tongue
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« Reply #20 on: June 29, 2009, 09:54:10 am »
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Right now, at 67.2%, Minnick has the lowest party unity score of any member of either party in the House - and by time his re-election comes around, I suspect it will be lower still

It'll be funny to see him lose anyway. He's trying to be Sali-lite.
Do you forget what a wingnut Sali was (is)? Voting with the congressional dems 6.7% of the time would qualify as Sali-lite, not 67% of the time. This is Idaho for frick's sake! That is by FAR the best one can hope for. I'm actually surprised Minnick's party unity voting score isn't significantly lower.

Besides, Sali was borderline nuts; Minnick's exhibited none of this tendency.

Sad to know he's still endangered, to put it nicely. Best Dems can hope for is Sali attempts a comeback and wins the primary. Any word up there on whether he's inclined to give it another try?
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« Reply #21 on: June 29, 2009, 07:28:34 pm »
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Right now, at 67.2%, Minnick has the lowest party unity score of any member of either party in the House - and by time his re-election comes around, I suspect it will be lower still

It'll be funny to see him lose anyway. He's trying to be Sali-lite.
Do you forget what a wingnut Sali was (is)? Voting with the congressional dems 6.7% of the time would qualify as Sali-lite, not 67% of the time. This is Idaho for frick's sake! That is by FAR the best one can hope for. I'm actually surprised Minnick's party unity voting score isn't significantly lower.

Besides, Sali was borderline nuts; Minnick's exhibited none of this tendency.

Sad to know he's still endangered, to put it nicely. Best Dems can hope for is Sali attempts a comeback and wins the primary. Any word up there on whether he's inclined to give it another try?

Last I knew he was just "considering it". Even he can still win it but he would have a hard time in a district the GOP would prefer to put away for keeps. 
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« Reply #22 on: June 29, 2009, 10:48:56 pm »
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Right now, at 67.2%, Minnick has the lowest party unity score of any member of either party in the House - and by time his re-election comes around, I suspect it will be lower still

It'll be funny to see him lose anyway. He's trying to be Sali-lite.
Do you forget what a wingnut Sali was (is)? Voting with the congressional dems 6.7% of the time would qualify as Sali-lite, not 67% of the time. This is Idaho for frick's sake! That is by FAR the best one can hope for. I'm actually surprised Minnick's party unity voting score isn't significantly lower.

Besides, Sali was borderline nuts; Minnick's exhibited none of this tendency.

Sad to know he's still endangered, to put it nicely. Best Dems can hope for is Sali attempts a comeback and wins the primary. Any word up there on whether he's inclined to give it another try?

Last I knew he was just "considering it". Even he can still win it but he would have a hard time in a district the GOP would prefer to put away for keeps. 
The fundies have a very weak grip on this district. I expect Sali to win the primary.
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« Reply #23 on: June 29, 2009, 11:18:14 pm »
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Minnick could hold on.  This district isnt quite as straight ticket as say, TX-22 is and Democrat Larry LaRocco, who was far more liberal than Minnick, was actually reelected in 1992(not a great year for Congressional Dems).  Minnick could hold on under the right circumstances.
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« Reply #24 on: July 02, 2009, 09:03:26 am »
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Right now, at 67.2%, Minnick has the lowest party unity score of any member of either party in the House - and by time his re-election comes around, I suspect it will be lower still

It'll be funny to see him lose anyway. He's trying to be Sali-lite.
Do you forget what a wingnut Sali was (is)? Voting with the congressional dems 6.7% of the time would qualify as Sali-lite, not 67% of the time. This is Idaho for frick's sake! That is by FAR the best one can hope for. I'm actually surprised Minnick's party unity voting score isn't significantly lower.

Besides, Sali was borderline nuts; Minnick's exhibited none of this tendency.

Sad to know he's still endangered, to put it nicely. Best Dems can hope for is Sali attempts a comeback and wins the primary. Any word up there on whether he's inclined to give it another try?

Last I knew he was just "considering it". Even he can still win it but he would have a hard time in a district the GOP would prefer to put away for keeps. 
The fundies have a very weak grip on this district. I expect Sali to win the primary.

But aren't the fundies Sali's base?
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