Hopkins/Pepper vs. Willkie/McNary(1940)

[Historico]

Ok let's say Franklin ultimatley feels satisfied with his accomplishments of his two term and decides against breaking the Washington tradition. He labores hard over picking his successor, rulling out his own Conservative VP John N. Garner and the Leftist Sec. of Agriculture Henry A. Wallace. He ultimatley goes with with his close friend Sec. of Commerce Harry Hopkins of New York. Allthough he battles against his stomach illness, Hopkins is able to clinch the nomination away with the help of New York Political Boss James Farley, from Garner and chooses Popular Roosevelt ally...Senator Claude Pepper of Florida as his running mate.

The 1940 Republican convention stays pretty much the same, and the Darkhorse candidate Wendell Willkie as their Presidential nominee. So in the battle of the none politicans, who would win?

[Historico]

Any takers?

[Lincoln Republican]

Without FDR seeking re-election, Wilkie ignites a populist grass roots movement, and wins a narrow victory.

Wilkie/McNary                        271
Hopkins/Pepper                     260

[Historico]

I just don't see America returning back to the Republican Party in just  eight years after Hoover Dubya, looking at it in a Political Scientist perspective.

1. Most Likely Scenario...Although Willkie should do better running against kind-of-a lightweight with Hopkins, I still think with his popularity at the WPA and with Lend-Lease I think he's gauranteed a comformatble victory.

Harry Hopkins/Claude Pepper: 340 Electoral Votes
Wendell Willkie/Charles McNary: 191 Electoral Votes

2. The Best Case Scenario for Hopkins...Lack of fear of FDR becoming a Dictator disappear with FDR not running for a third term, and stronger internationalist feelings in the country could help aswell.

Harry Hopkins/Claude Pepper: 490 Electoral Votes
Wendell Willkie/Charles McNary: 38 Electoral Votes

3. Best Case Scenario for Willkie...The Stress of running a national campaign takes his toll on Hopkins, forcing him to remain bed-readinn for most of the campon. Willkie runs instead on Hopkins not being well enough to take the White House and wins a fairly comfortable victory.

Wendell Willkie/Charles McNary: 326 Electoral Votes
Harry Hopkins/Claude Pepper: 205 Electoral Votes

[Lincoln Republican]

My reasoning is that Hopkins' health would have become a major campaign issue.  The Republicans would have exploited Hopkins' condition, as you mention above.

I agree with you that the voters would not have turned out the Democrats after eight years at this time in history but they would have to have had a more high profile candidate, such as Vice President Garner.

[Kaine for Senate '18]