Will California, Washington or Oregon ever vote Republican?

[5280]

Ever since 1992, California voted for a DEM president and in 1988, Oregon and Washington only voted for DEM.  Will we ever see these state go over to the REPs anytime within 50+ years?  Democrats like to say Texas will go DEM either in 2020 or 2024, what gives?

[Barnes]

California is solid Democratic. Oregon could be a swing-state if the Republicans play the right cards, and Washington is a long-shot, but possible.

[5280]

California is solid Democratic. Oregon could be a swing-state if the Republicans play the right cards, and Washington is a long-shot, but possible.

Well, for California it doesn't matter in the future because that state will be floating off the US or flooded in the next thousand years or so.

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

California is solid Democratic. Oregon could be a swing-state if the Republicans play the right cards, and Washington is a long-shot, but possible.

Well, for California it doesn't matter in the future because that state will be floating off the US or flooded in the next thousand years or so.

I think that those three states are pretty Democrat safe for a while.

[Daniel Z]

In the short term I don't think any of the three will vote Republican. Maybe in eight to sixteen years Washington and Oregon will be winable if the Republicans return to economic issues, and social conservatism doesent seem as big of a threat.

[Meeker]

Four years ago you would've been laughed out of the room if you said Indiana was going to vote Democratic in 2008. Who the hell knows what's going to happen.

[DariusNJ]

Oregon is pretty safe for the Democrats, but in no way is it like CA, or even WA. A moderate Republican could easily win there (a la Gordon Smith).

WA will be hard, even with a moderate Republican. And California is really out of reach right now for the GOP. There is a strong base of voters in CA that would never vote for the Republican ( the Bay, Los Angeles County). Not to mention that Orange and Fresno counties are not the bastions of conservativism they once were.

[sg0508]

See my thread in regards to re-winning the suburban vote.  The only ways to carry WA/OR today are to beat the democrats big outside King County and Portland.  If we can nominate someone who can reach out to those voters while winning big margins in the conservative parts of the states, both are still winnable. 

CA is going to be tough considering the issues there and the major changes in population.

[Ogre Mage]

At the Presidential level, CA and WA are Democratic base states.  OR not so much. 

To have a chance of winning in WA, the GOP would have to nominate the type of Republican that their base is at present not willing to consider.  If the Democratic nominee is a weak candidate, a moderate Republican would have a decent chance.

A fairly conservative economic message could work here if it is focused on free trade and pro-business combined with a center-right platform on taxes.  However, the candidate would need to recognize government's role in providing services to people.  A candidate who comes off as taking a hatchet to government services is probably not headed to victory.  A George W. Bush like environmental record would also be a problematic hurdle.  A candidate savvy about transportation issues is a plus.

On social issues, the GOP is really out of sync with WA state.  Any anti-abortion candidate is starting at a significant handicap, although it could be overcome under certain circumstances.  An attempt to portray the "homosexual lifestyle" as a threat to family values will only result in the candidate looking like a bigot to the majority of WA voters. 

[Vepres]

At the Presidential level, CA and WA are Democratic base states.  OR not so much. 

To have a chance of winning in WA, the GOP would have to nominate the type of Republican that their base is at present not willing to consider.  If the Democratic nominee is a weak candidate, a moderate Republican would have a decent chance.

A fairly conservative economic message could work here if it is focused on free trade and pro-business combined with a center-right platform on taxes.  However, the candidate would need to recognize government's role in providing services to people.  A candidate who comes off as taking a hatchet to government services is probably not headed to victory.  A George W. Bush like environmental record would also be a problematic hurdle.  A candidate savvy about transportation issues is a plus.

On social issues, the GOP is really out of sync with WA state.  Any anti-abortion candidate is starting at a significant handicap, although it could be overcome under certain circumstances. 

I would add that a simple change in immigration rhetoric propels them to only -10 in CA (see 2004).

[auburntiger]

not in my lifetime. I'm convinced they're all lost causes.

[sg0508]

Rossi almost carried WA, but gov races are more bipartisan.  Bush did reasonably well in WA both times although he lost.

I agree though, it will take a RINO to carry the state.  Scary how much King County has changed though since the 70s and 80s when Republicans used to carry it.  Or, the GOP has changed for the worst. 

Slade Gorton's method of carrying the state is how it has to be done today: Carry suburbia by big margins along with all counties outside King, which is very tough.

[pbrower2a]

This could be more relevant:


When will CA, OR, or WA vote for the conservative party of the time?  The GOP could be in a death spiral as the Hard Right increasingly takes it over.

Until that tendency ends, and nothing says that it won't, it is possible that we will go through a new Era of Good Feeling that ends when the Democratic Party breaks into two -- let us say Christian Democrats and Social Democrats.   

[Ogre Mage]

Slade Gorton's method of carrying the state is how it has to be done today: Carry suburbia by big margins along with all counties outside King, which is very tough.

Gorton's electoral strategy was to run against King County and while he was hated there, he won with strong support from the business community, the suburbs and Eastern Washington.  For many years this worked.  But the population of King County continued to swell and suburbia began to grow increasing uncomfortable with Gorton's positions on social policy.  In 2000, the Democrats nominated Maria Cantwell, a wealthy, relatively pro-business, socially liberal candidate.  She cracked into just enough of Gorton's support while maintaining the Democratic base.  Indian tribes and environmental groups were two parts of the Democratic base which especially hated Gorton and Cantwell lobbied hard for them during the campaign and as a senator.

[bgwah]

The GOP's strategy in Washington seems to have shifted from anti-Seattle to anti-King County, which is very dumb. But I'm not complaining!

[ottermax]

The main problem in WA is our polarization. We won't probably ever have landslides for the Democrats, but I don't see how the Democrats can dip below the majority of the voters in this state anymore. There is a very strong base of Republicans, but they never seem to overcome the dominance of the Democrats in the Seattle Metro. But it's possible. I just don't see how, but it could always be possible.

Any way you put it, it seems like a presidential candidate would have to win many more states before capturing the West Coast. But I see California going Republican before Washington or even Oregon.

[sg0508]

If the GOP runs an Olympia Snowe/Giuliani/Mark Kirk type in WA state, they can win, but of course we never will because we're either not smart enough or just too stubborn to open ourselves to moderate candidates.

Gorton's defeat in 2000 was also due to that 3rd party candidate that sapped up about 3% and that made the difference.  In that exit poll, most of those were republican votes.

[sg0508]

And If I remember correctly, Gorton's margin of victory in 1994 wasn't very convincing. I think it was 55-45%, which in that year for the GOP, was one of the worst showings for an incumbent, next to Jeffords of VT.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In 1976 the final realignment shift, Jimmy Carter eventhough he lost those states brought the middle class voters home with his populist economic appeal.  Those voters along with the eastern seaboard was lost to the republicans do the growth of immigration since that final realignment shift.

And Oregon usually is competetive like Minnesota until the end.  I think that Oregon will most likely before Washington and California change parties.

[Vepres]

If the GOP runs an Olympia Snowe/Giuliani/Mark Kirk type in WA state, they can win, but of course we never will because we're either not smart enough or just too stubborn to open ourselves to moderate candidates.

Gorton's defeat in 2000 was also due to that 3rd party candidate that sapped up about 3% and that made the difference.  In that exit poll, most of those were republican votes.

Now now, don't be so negative.

Anyway, I think a libertarian-ish/moderate Republican can win Oregon, and be competitive in Washington. He/she would appeal more to the Seattle/Portland suburbs, helping them significantly.

[5280]

I have a feeling Oregon will vote Republican first before the other two westcoast states.  It will occur within 50 years or less.

[Sbane]

Of course they will vote republican. But unlike Texas the trend is going the wrong way. That being said if the republican party becomes more socially liberal while still being fiscally conservative, they will have a greater chance of winning on the west coast.

[DS0816]

If the platform of the Republican Party changes and they can peddle a newer, less indecent brand … competition will be had.

[DS0816]

The main problem in WA is our polarization. We won't probably ever have landslides for the Democrats…

Barack Obama carried the state of Washington by over 15 points.

[pogo stick]

See my thread in regards to re-winning the suburban vote.  The only ways to carry WA/OR today are to beat the democrats big outside King County and Portland.  If we can nominate someone who can reach out to those voters while winning big margins in the conservative parts of the states, both are still winnable. 

CA is going to be tough considering the issues there and the major changes in population.

Giuliani? Cathy Morris? Dave Reichart? Gordon Smith?