My observations as we head into the second debate:
Where we are right now is in a period of a state of flux.
The funny thing this whole situation reminds me of is the DWI incident back in 2000 (if not the whole 2000 race). Though we didn't know it at the time, that event sent the race into a certain amount of strangeness where a rather comfortable 3-5 point Bush lead switched into a vote with the narrowest of margins. Excellent GOTV by the Dems helped, but this demoralization of Rep voters showed up in a number of places (like Ohio and PA, where GOTV efforts were also terrible).
Before the first debate, Bush was clearly ahead 3-5 points, and with the addition of the demoralization of the Kerry voters, this margin probably extended to 5-7 points for all practical purposes.
With the assumed disaster by Bush by both relative sides in the first debate, the race suddenly went into flux. Very few minds were actually changed by the debate (my guess with the polling is probably about 1%), but the effect on the dynamics of the race was incontrovertible. Bush supporters who had been energized and confident, slipped into dismay and demoralization, whereas Kerry supporters who were unenergized, suddenly became energized and confident.
Though the dynamics of the race changed little, the motivation factors made the race totally different. You can see this by comparing the hardweighted polls to the non-weighted polls. The hardweight polls still show a rough 2-3, 2-4% Bush lead; the non-weighted polls show an essentially tied race. Cheney's performance Tuesday probably helped stabilize the race a little, keeping it at this number and maybe reenergized Bush people a little, but that effect is probably negligible compared to Friday.
Based on the factors I'm seeing, there are probably three possible outcomes to the second debate that make sense to me:
1. The positive Kerry outcome: Kerry shines, Bush stumbles in the same way as the last debate looked to the TV audience. Chances are what you will see after this is a tied race nationally in the hardweighted polls and a 3-5 point Kerry lead in the un-weighted polls. The race will have fundamentally changed.
2. The neutral outcome: Both candidates perform well and it appears to the audience as that. Oddly enough, what you will see here is a re-energization of the Bush voters, but not a demoralization of the Kerry voters so that probably all the polls (weighted and unweighted) will resolve around the 2-4% Bush lead number. The third debate assumes the most importance under this scenario.
3. The positive Bush outcome: Bush comes back and trounces Kerry, a la Reagan in 1984, and the audience views it as this also. Chances are after this outcome you would see the race return somewhat to where it was before the first debate, probably not exactly, but fairly close, with a re-energization of Bush voters and a demoralization of Kerry voters.
I'm sure no one will agree with me on any of this.
