Is Deval Patrick in trouble?

[Kevin]

Is Deval Patrick in trouble?

The answer may seem obvious as he is facing much criticism and low approval ratings even within his own party as well as speculation of a primary challenge.

However does anyone think it would be even possible for the Republicans to pick up the Massachusetts Governorship in 2010. I think it may be possible given the speculation that the Republicans may have some strong candidates to run. However a strong edge must be given to any Democratic candidate whether Patrick is that candidate or not.   

[SamInTheSouth]

Republicans held the Governor's seat for about 20 years prior to Patrick winning.  It's very much in the realm of possibilities for them to take it back.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Republicans held the Governor's seat for about 20 16 years prior to Patrick winning.  It's very much in the realm of possibilities for them to take it back.

[WalterMitty]

the republicans would be helped a great deal if tim cahill runs as an independent.

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans held the Governor's seat for about 20 years prior to Patrick winning.  It's very much in the realm of possibilities for them to take it back.

And Democrats held the Texas governorship for all but eight years before 1994. 

[Rowan]

Yes, he is:

Rasmussen MA-GOV

Mihos(R)- 41%
Patrick(D-Inc)- 40%

Patrick(D-Inc)- 41%
Baker(R)- 36%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/massachusettes/election_2010_massachusetts_governor

[Dan the Roman]

Yes, he is:

Rasmussen MA-GOV

Mihos(R)- 41%
Patrick(D-Inc)- 40%

Patrick(D-Inc)- 41%
Baker(R)- 36%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/massachusettes/election_2010_massachusetts_governor

Baker's performance is non-existent name recognition. Mihos is the MA version of Ross Perot. If he is ahead of Patrick, the Governor is in real trouble.

[Brittain33]

Thank God it's Rasmussen. I don't want to pooh-pooh concerns about Patrick's vulnerability, but I can't consider Rasmussen a credible pollster these days.

[Kevin]

Thank God it's Rasmussen. I don't want to pooh-pooh concerns about Patrick's vulnerability, but I can't consider Rasmussen a credible pollster these days.

Don't have any illusions though, Patrick is very vulnerable from a challenge from ether the Republicans or from within his own party as poll numbers indicate.

[Brittain33]

Treasurer Tim Cahill is switching his party membership from Democratic to unenrolled in order to be able to run for Governor as an independent. He has not committed to the race, but he has $3 million in his bank account and would run to Deval Patrick's right as a candidate of budget cuts over tax increases and "I'm an outsider!"

He recognizes that the institutional machinery of the Democratic Party, controlled by Patrick's allies (as opposed to legislative Democrats), would block him from competing in the primary.

[Dan the Roman]

Treasurer Tim Cahill is switching his party membership from Democratic to unenrolled in order to be able to run for Governor as an independent. He has not committed to the race, but he has $3 million in his bank account and would run to Deval Patrick's right as a candidate of budget cuts over tax increases and "I'm an outsider!"

He recognizes that the institutional machinery of the Democratic Party, controlled by Patrick's allies (as opposed to legislative Democrats), would block him from competing in the primary.

Stupid move. Getting 15% is achievable, even Kerry's lunatic opponent managed that. Even if he didn't want to do that, he should have stolen a march on Baker, who really wants an excuse not to run, and switched to the GOP. He will not be able to win as an Independent.

[Brittain33]

Stupid move. Getting 15% is achievable, even Kerry's lunatic opponent managed that. Even if he didn't want to do that, he should have stolen a march on Baker, who really wants an excuse not to run, and switched to the GOP. He will not be able to win as an Independent.

Did you see the article in today's Globe?

[Dan the Roman]

Stupid move. Getting 15% is achievable, even Kerry's lunatic opponent managed that. Even if he didn't want to do that, he should have stolen a march on Baker, who really wants an excuse not to run, and switched to the GOP. He will not be able to win as an Independent.

Did you see the article in today's Globe?

I did and I did not buy the Phil Johnson quote. 15% does not require support of legislators, simply neutrality or a lack of strenuous support for Patrick and both will occur. Remember, Kerry's unknown opponent scrounged up 22% of the vote at the convention last time.

[Vepres]

Thank God it's Rasmussen. I don't want to pooh-pooh concerns about Patrick's vulnerability, but I can't consider Rasmussen a credible pollster these days.

Why? They poll the people who actually bother to vote. They were surprisingly accurate in their national polling the day before the election last year. They had Obama up by 6 the day before the election, and he won by 7 points. Not too shabby.

[Dan the Roman]

Thank God it's Rasmussen. I don't want to pooh-pooh concerns about Patrick's vulnerability, but I can't consider Rasmussen a credible pollster these days.

Why? They poll the people who actually bother to vote. They were surprisingly accurate in their national polling the day before the election last year. They had Obama up by 6 the day before the election, and he won by 7 points. Not too shabby.

I would add that they are probably the second best of the three pollsters that actually bother to poll Massachusetts, and with Survey USA having given up, far more accurate than Suffolk, UNH, or the Globe. That said polling in MA tends to suck for a lot of reasons.

[WalterMitty]

republican charlie baker announces today he is running. 

[pragmatic liberal]

Well this should be interesting. Any Massachusetts residents want to game a 3-way race between Patrick (D), Baker (R), and Cahill (I)?

[WalterMitty]

Well this should be interesting. Any Massachusetts residents want to game a 3-way race between Patrick (D), Baker (R), and Cahill (I)?

first baker has to win the nomination against christy mihos.

[Dan the Roman]

Well this should be interesting. Any Massachusetts residents want to game a 3-way race between Patrick (D), Baker (R), and Cahill (I)?

first baker has to win the nomination against christy mihos.

That really should not be a challenge after 2006.

[WalterMitty]

Well this should be interesting. Any Massachusetts residents want to game a 3-way race between Patrick (D), Baker (R), and Cahill (I)?

first baker has to win the nomination against christy mihos.

That really should not be a challenge after 2006.

i disagree.  he has money and people like that silly populism he spews.

[Dan the Roman]

Well this should be interesting. Any Massachusetts residents want to game a 3-way race between Patrick (D), Baker (R), and Cahill (I)?

first baker has to win the nomination against christy mihos.

That really should not be a challenge after 2006.

i disagree.  he has money and people like that silly populism he spews.

He always struck me a bit as mini-Perot. Someone who makes sense with a lot of what he says, but is too insane to benfiit personally as a candidate.

[Brittain33]

He always struck me a bit as mini-Perot. Someone who makes sense with a lot of what he says, but is too insane to benfiit personally as a candidate.

Mihos is an embarrassment. He's a convenience-store Donald Trump without the flair or the media savvy. I have faith in the Republican Party to crown Charles Baker as its nominee.

Here's the question: does Cahill now run for Treasurer again? Or does anyone think he could do anything but hand the race to Deval Patrick if he decides to run for Governor, thereby foreclosing his chances for 2014? What's his rationale now that Baker is going to be running on exactly the same platform, only with a different biography and real party support?

[Brittain33]

Well this should be interesting. Any Massachusetts residents want to game a 3-way race between Patrick (D), Baker (R), and Cahill (I)?

I'm not the best judge of these things, but I think Patrick's situation compares favorably with Rick Perry's in 2006. The Democratic base is big enough that he could win a 3-way race more easily than a 2-way race, I think.

[WalterMitty]

Well this should be interesting. Any Massachusetts residents want to game a 3-way race between Patrick (D), Baker (R), and Cahill (I)?

I'm not the best judge of these things, but I think Patrick's situation compares favorably with Rick Perry's in 2006. The Democratic base is big enough that he could win a 3-way race more easily than a 2-way race, I think.

you dont think cahill will drain (white) working class democrat voters from patrick?

no working class person should ever vote for a fellow like baker.

[Brittain33]

you dont think cahill will drain (white) working class democrat voters from patrick?

no working class person should ever vote for a fellow like baker.

I think he might drain some. I don't think he possibly wins enough to defeat Patrick and to win the election. People vote on issues other than ethnicity, and he may find himself on the wrong side of issues like budget, education spending, and transportation spending. I don't think that declaring a culture war on Cambridge libruls and minorities is going to be a route to victory.

I guess I just don't see this Lieberman-style "Independent Democrat" thing working with a viable Democrat and a viable Republican in the race. I don't think race is so salient an issue that it would move that many Democrats to vote for a socially liberal, economically conservative platform.