Predict who will be governor....

[Vepres]

I'll make it more reasonable.

CA - Whitman (R) Don't underestimate the advantage money has, especially in a big state
TX - Hutchison (R)
NY - Giuliani (R) Ya never know, it is my right to dream
FL - McCollum (R)
IL - Cross (R) Democrats are probably damaged by Burris and Blago.
PA - Tom Knox (D) Robert Mellow(D)
OH - Kasich (R)
MI - Hoekstra (R)

I really think 2010 will be a Republican year.

Possibly even more ridiculous. 

Mellow as the nominee would be a blast for the GOP.

Vepres, if you really want a Dem in there will give the GOP big problems then I would suggest Wagner, or  Onorato. 

This is the thread about the race for Governor of the most important state in the Nation . It will fill in some of your missing knowledge, Vepres.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88791.0

I was trying to mess with Keystone Phil with that last edit. No way Mellow would win.

I assumed that Knox would have an advantage because of his money.

[Smash255]

CA-Jerry Brown (D)
TX-Rick Perry (R)
NY-Andrew Cuomo (D)
FL- Bill McCollum (R)
IL-Lisa Madigan (D)
PA-Dan Onorato (D).  Corbett/Meehan are overhyped.  This is a Dem state in the end.  It maybe wise to keep Knox away however.
OH-Ted Strickland (D)
MI-John Cherry(D).  See PA, but the economy if anything will benefit the Dems tremendously.

Pretty much agreed, though I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if its Suozzi instead of Cuomo.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't believe Andrew Cuomo has said he won't run.  I believe Charles Rangel has said that Andrew Cuomo has said he won't run.  In other words, Cuomo will be the next governor.

Yeah, I could have sworn I read that Cuomo said he wouldn't run.  Then I looked it up on Wikipedia, and there's a sentence that says Cuomo has declined to run, but the article they link to just says that he's noncommittal at the moment.

So to clear things up, Cuomo hasn't publicly committed himself one way or the other, correct?

[Keystone Phil]

I assumed that Knox would have an advantage because of his money.

Money is a double edged sword (especially with a guy like Knox who can't pull off the "Oh, I'm just a regular guy...with a few billion"). Plus, he has plenty of other negatives. Check the PA thread. 

[Mr.Phips]

CA - Whitman (R) Don't underestimate the advantage money has, especially in a big state
TX - Hutchison (R)
NY - Giuliani (R) Ya never know, it is my right to dream
FL - McCollum (R)
IL - Cross (R) Democrats are probably damaged by Burris and Blago.
PA - Tom Knox (D)
OH - Kasich (R)
MI - Hoekstra (R)

I really think 2010 will be a Republican year.

This is just ridiculous.  First, California is a state that Obama won by a 61%-37% margin and Whitman is not a very attractive candidate.  Illinois is another state that wont elect a Republican unless they are running against Blago or Burris.  Hoekstra is also way too far to the right for Michigan and is not a very good campaigner.  Why you threw Knox in here is an even bigger mystery. 

[muon2]

CA - Whitman (R) Don't underestimate the advantage money has, especially in a big state
TX - Hutchison (R)
NY - Giuliani (R) Ya never know, it is my right to dream
FL - McCollum (R)
IL - Cross (R) Democrats are probably damaged by Burris and Blago.
PA - Tom Knox (D)
OH - Kasich (R)
MI - Hoekstra (R)

I really think 2010 will be a Republican year.

This is just ridiculous.  First, California is a state that Obama won by a 61%-37% margin and Whitman is not a very attractive candidate.  Illinois is another state that wont elect a Republican unless they are running against Blago or Burris.  Hoekstra is also way too far to the right for Michigan and is not a very good campaigner.  Why you threw Knox in here is an even bigger mystery. 

The presidential numbers are not always good predictors of Governor's races. Look at MA under a string of R's in the 90's through '06. The presidential vote would not predict Freudenthal in WY either.

The state of IL has no budget for the current fiscal year and the voters all know that Quinn and the Dems are to blame. If L. Madigan runs for the US Senate (a good possibility), there are Rs like Dillard or Schillerstrom that could win the Gov's mansion in 2010.

[Dan the Roman]

CA - Whitman (R) Don't underestimate the advantage money has, especially in a big state
TX - Hutchison (R)
NY - Giuliani (R) Ya never know, it is my right to dream
FL - McCollum (R)
IL - Cross (R) Democrats are probably damaged by Burris and Blago.
PA - Tom Knox (D)
OH - Kasich (R)
MI - Hoekstra (R)

I really think 2010 will be a Republican year.

This is just ridiculous.  First, California is a state that Obama won by a 61%-37% margin and Whitman is not a very attractive candidate.  Illinois is another state that wont elect a Republican unless they are running against Blago or Burris.  Hoekstra is also way too far to the right for Michigan and is not a very good campaigner.  Why you threw Knox in here is an even bigger mystery. 

The presidential numbers are not always good predictors of Governor's races. Look at MA under a string of R's in the 90's through '06. The presidential vote would not predict Freudenthal in WY either.

The state of IL has no budget for the current fiscal year and the voters all know that Quinn and the Dems are to blame. If L. Madigan runs for the US Senate (a good possibility), there are Rs like Dillard or Schillerstrom that could win the Gov's mansion in 2010.

Its worth recalling that the same argument could be made for Topinka in 2006. She was much stronger than either Dillard or Schillerstrom.

As for CA, Whitman will not be the next governor. She is too Conservative, especially her support of Prop 8, which will hurt with moderate voters she needs.(while it passed, the blacks and hispanics who supported it will not support her, while white liberals who supported Arnold will not either).

That said, Tom Campbell might pull it off if he wins the nomination, and he could probably beat Newsom, and give Brown a good race.

But most of Whitman's support is in the minds of people out of state.

[muon2]

CA - Whitman (R) Don't underestimate the advantage money has, especially in a big state
TX - Hutchison (R)
NY - Giuliani (R) Ya never know, it is my right to dream
FL - McCollum (R)
IL - Cross (R) Democrats are probably damaged by Burris and Blago.
PA - Tom Knox (D)
OH - Kasich (R)
MI - Hoekstra (R)

I really think 2010 will be a Republican year.

This is just ridiculous.  First, California is a state that Obama won by a 61%-37% margin and Whitman is not a very attractive candidate.  Illinois is another state that wont elect a Republican unless they are running against Blago or Burris.  Hoekstra is also way too far to the right for Michigan and is not a very good campaigner.  Why you threw Knox in here is an even bigger mystery. 

The presidential numbers are not always good predictors of Governor's races. Look at MA under a string of R's in the 90's through '06. The presidential vote would not predict Freudenthal in WY either.

The state of IL has no budget for the current fiscal year and the voters all know that Quinn and the Dems are to blame. If L. Madigan runs for the US Senate (a good possibility), there are Rs like Dillard or Schillerstrom that could win the Gov's mansion in 2010.

Its worth recalling that the same argument could be made for Topinka in 2006. She was much stronger than either Dillard or Schillerstrom.

Topinka had three things that weighed heavily against her. One was her tie to the just-convicted Gov Ryan, two was the bloody primary fight in 2006, and three was the huge campaign warchest available to Blago which he used to exploit the first two items.

In 2010 it's the ties to Blago that will hurt and if the nominee is Quinn, he is unlikely to have the kind of money advantage that Blago had in 2006. The Dems are hoping for a repeat of the 2006 GOP primary fight to give them an edge.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Quinn
hutchinson
McCollum
Brown
NY d
MI r
strickland
Knox

[Mr.Phips]

CA - Whitman (R) Don't underestimate the advantage money has, especially in a big state
TX - Hutchison (R)
NY - Giuliani (R) Ya never know, it is my right to dream
FL - McCollum (R)
IL - Cross (R) Democrats are probably damaged by Burris and Blago.
PA - Tom Knox (D)
OH - Kasich (R)
MI - Hoekstra (R)

I really think 2010 will be a Republican year.

This is just ridiculous.  First, California is a state that Obama won by a 61%-37% margin and Whitman is not a very attractive candidate.  Illinois is another state that wont elect a Republican unless they are running against Blago or Burris.  Hoekstra is also way too far to the right for Michigan and is not a very good campaigner.  Why you threw Knox in here is an even bigger mystery. 

The presidential numbers are not always good predictors of Governor's races. Look at MA under a string of R's in the 90's through '06. The presidential vote would not predict Freudenthal in WY either.

The state of IL has no budget for the current fiscal year and the voters all know that Quinn and the Dems are to blame. If L. Madigan runs for the US Senate (a good possibility), there are Rs like Dillard or Schillerstrom that could win the Gov's mansion in 2010.

Murkowski sure didnt hurt Palin in the 2006 Alaska governors race. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

CA - Whitman (R) Don't underestimate the advantage money has, especially in a big state
TX - Hutchison (R)
NY - Giuliani (R) Ya never know, it is my right to dream
FL - McCollum (R)
IL - Cross (R) Democrats are probably damaged by Burris and Blago.
PA - Tom Knox (D)
OH - Kasich (R)
MI - Hoekstra (R)

I really think 2010 will be a Republican year.

This is just ridiculous.  First, California is a state that Obama won by a 61%-37% margin and Whitman is not a very attractive candidate.  Illinois is another state that wont elect a Republican unless they are running against Blago or Burris.  Hoekstra is also way too far to the right for Michigan and is not a very good campaigner.  Why you threw Knox in here is an even bigger mystery. 

The presidential numbers are not always good predictors of Governor's races. Look at MA under a string of R's in the 90's through '06. The presidential vote would not predict Freudenthal in WY either.

The state of IL has no budget for the current fiscal year and the voters all know that Quinn and the Dems are to blame. If L. Madigan runs for the US Senate (a good possibility), there are Rs like Dillard or Schillerstrom that could win the Gov's mansion in 2010.

Murkowski sure didnt hurt Palin in the 2006 Alaska governors race. 

Primaries can hurt or help in the general depending on other factors like the State's lean. Alaska is a GOP state, and Illinois is a Dem state. In Alaska is was a corrupt old incumbent versus a women who was a young outsider. In Illinois is was more of a Moderate versus Conservative primary.

[DemocratsVictory2008]

CA - Brown D
TX - Hutchison R
NY - Cuomo D
FL - Sink D
IL - D
PA - D
OH - Kasich R
MI - D

[Psychic Octopus]

CA- Meg Whitman (R)
TX- Kay Bailey Hutchison (R)
NY- Rudy Giuliani (R)
FL- Bill McCollum (R)
IL- Pat Quinn (D)
PA- Tom Knox (D)
OH- John Kasich (R)
MI- Peter Hoekstra (R)

[TeePee4Prez]

A lot of people think Knox could pull it off in PA.  Even I think he has an uphill battle.

[Keystone Phil]

A lot of people think Knox could pull it off in PA.  Even I think he has an uphill battle.

Take a look at whose saying that - they're a bunch of people around here that have no idea what's going on. There aren't "a lot of people" thinking he can win in PA.

[Tender Branson]

Sorted by 2011 population:

CA: Jerry Brown (D)
TX: Rick Perry (R)
NY: Andrew Cuomo (D)
FL: Bill McCollum (R)
IL: Pat Quinn (D)
PA: Jack Wagner (D)
OH: Ted Strickland (D)
GA: John Oxendine (R)

NC: Beverly Perdue (D)
MI: Mike Cox (R)
NJ: Chris Christie (R)
VA: Bob McDonnell (R)
AZ: Jan Brewer (R)
WA: Christine Gregoire (D)
MA: Deval Patrick (D)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

25D25R

2011 KY fall to the republicans and the rest stays the same

[Devilman88]

Sorted by 2011 population:

CA: Jerry Brown (D)
TX: Rick Perry (R)
NY: Andrew Cuomo (D)
FL: Bill McCollum (R)
IL: Pat Quinn (D)
PA: Jack Wagner (D)
OH: Ted Strickland (D)
GA: John Oxendine (R)

NC: Beverly Perdue (D)
MI: Mike Cox (R)
NJ: Chris Christie (R)
VA: Bob McDonnell (R)
AZ: Jan Brewer (R)
WA: Christine Gregoire (D)
MA: Deval Patrick (D)

Where did 2011 population numbers at?

[FloridaRepublican]

CA - Jerry Brown (D)
FL - Alex Sink (D), I think she'll make it
NY - Andrew Cuomo (D)
IL - Pat Quinn (D)
PA - I have no idea
OH - Ted Strickland (D)
M9 - No idea either

Don;t worry, Republicans, you'll picks states like KS

I strongly doubt Sink can win.

[Tender Branson]

Sorted by 2011 population:

CA: Jerry Brown (D)
TX: Rick Perry (R)
NY: Andrew Cuomo (D)
FL: Bill McCollum (R)
IL: Pat Quinn (D)
PA: Jack Wagner (D)
OH: Ted Strickland (D)
GA: John Oxendine (R)

NC: Beverly Perdue (D)
MI: Mike Cox (R)
NJ: Chris Christie (R)
VA: Bob McDonnell (R)
AZ: Jan Brewer (R)
WA: Christine Gregoire (D)
MA: Deval Patrick (D)

Where did 2011 population numbers at?

Based on 2008 numbers and current trends. Both GA and NC are likely to overtake MI by 2011, but just slightly. GA more so than NC.

North Carolina will probably have about 9.85 Mio. inhabitants at the end of 2011 if current growth patterns there hold (which is a little in doubt because of the economy).

Michigan on the other hand had 10 Mio. inhabitants in Mid-2008 and was shrinking at roughly 50.000 each year. That would also mean roughly 9.85 Mio. people by the end of 2011.

I doubt NC will manage to overtake MI already in the 2010 Census, but over- and undercounts in both states might be possible and NC could barely edge by.

GA meanwhile should have about 9.97 Mio. people by Census 2010 and roughly 10.25 Mio. at the end of 2011 ...

[brentster]

CA Meg Whitman (R)
IL Cross (R)
TX Some Democrat
MI  Cox (R)
NY Guliani (R)
PA Corbett (R)
OH Strickland (D)
FL Sink (D)

Every big state except Calif and Ohio switch parties in 2010 is my prediction. Rick Perry will win the GOP nod in Texas and then lose the general election in an upset. Strickland squeaks by in Ohio. Florida decides to end 12 years of GOP control by rejecting the bland McCollum by a narrow margin. A GOP sweep in Illinois wipes out the damaged Pat Quinn and picks up the U.S. Senate seat as well. A strong Repub will win in Michigan amid continued high unemployment. Andrew Cuomo decides not to run, and Guliani takes out Paterson. California is more of tossup, but neither Dem seems likley to win in my opinion, and the governorship will once again by won by a moderate Repub.

[pogo stick]

CA Meg Whitman (R)
IL Cross (R)
TX Some Democrat
MI  Cox (R)
NY Guliani (R)
PA Corbett (R)
OH Strickland (D)
FL Sink (D)

Every big state except Calif and Ohio switch parties in 2010 is my prediction. Rick Perry will win the GOP nod in Texas and then lose the general election in an upset. Strickland squeaks by in Ohio. Florida decides to end 12 years of GOP control by rejecting the bland McCollum by a narrow margin. A GOP sweep in Illinois wipes out the damaged Pat Quinn and picks up the U.S. Senate seat as well. A strong Repub will win in Michigan amid continued high unemployment. Andrew Cuomo decides not to run, and Guliani takes out Paterson. California is more of tossup, but neither Dem seems likley to win in my opinion, and the governorship will once again by won by a moderate Repub.

What?

[ajc0918]

CA Meg Whitman (R)
IL Cross (R)
TX Some Democrat
MI  Cox (R)
NY Guliani (R)
PA Corbett (R)
OH Strickland (D)
FL Sink (D)

Every big state except Calif and Ohio switch parties in 2010 is my prediction. Rick Perry will win the GOP nod in Texas and then lose the general election in an upset. Strickland squeaks by in Ohio. Florida decides to end 12 years of GOP control by rejecting the bland McCollum by a narrow margin. A GOP sweep in Illinois wipes out the damaged Pat Quinn and picks up the U.S. Senate seat as well. A strong Repub will win in Michigan amid continued high unemployment. Andrew Cuomo decides not to run, and Guliani takes out Paterson. California is more of tossup, but neither Dem seems likley to win in my opinion, and the governorship will once again by won by a moderate Repub.

Alex Sink will lose. Democrats struggle statewide in Florida. The only thing she has right now is a fundraising lead. And only by 1.4 Mil. Sink also hasn't taken a stand on healthcare and it's affecting her. He most likely supports a Public Option but most of Florida doesn't.

[nkpatel1279]

CA- Jerry Brown(D)
TX- Kay Bailey Hutchinson(R)
NY- Andrew Cuomo or Tom Suozzi (D)
FL- Bill McCollum (R)
IL- Pat Quinn (D)
PA- Jim Gerlach (R)
OH- Ted Strickland (D)
MI- Mike Cox (R)

[RIP Robert H Bork]

CA: Jerry Brown
TX: Whoever wins the Republican nomination
NY: Andrew Cuomo
FL: Bill McCollum
IL: Pat Quinn
PA: Whoever wins the Republican nomination
OH: Ted Strickland
MI: Whoever wins the Republican nomination