Canadian federal polling division files

[deansherratt]

Now there is one voting bloc which is almost entirely composed of government workers...namely the "Special Voting Rules - II" category...voters employed by the government who are abroad or elsewhere in Canada. Who are they? The large majority are military and many of the rest are foreign service officers serving in diplomatic missions overseas. In Ottawa, there are more diplomatic voters compared to the military as they usually maintain their primary residence in Ottawa.

These SVR voters were traditionally very Liberal - up to the Mulroney years when they trended sharply Conservative. Liberal again during the Chretien years, in 2008 they once more swung very Conservative. It certainly speaks to the military as thinking the new government were friends of the restoration of the neglected state of the armed forces. These are not merely generals, but privates and ordinary enlisted men...There is no doubt that this particular group trended sharply Conservative from 2006-8. 

[deansherratt]

I must disagree a little with those who described its voting behavior. As a french rural riding, it was very Liberal (see returns for Russell riding). Indeed, the village of Orleans was very heavily Liberals for years (in 1968, admittedly a Liberal landslide, it voted 91% Liberal!).

Increasing suburbanization has changed its character into a more typcially suburban riding. It is above average in income and education and is overwhelmingly home-owners, while also having more francoiphone voters still than any other Ottawa riding save Ottawa-Vanier.

The core francophone communities are the old Orleans village polls (about 4-5 of them) plus some of the newer more easterly subdivisions (south of Innes near Trim road). The Conservative MP Galipeau wins good margins in the middle class anglophone polls but has increased his support in the francophone polls as well. They trend Liberal still but not as much as in the past.

[Hash]

I must disagree a little with those who described its voting behavior. As a french rural riding, it was very Liberal (see returns for Russell riding). Indeed, the village of Orleans was very heavily Liberals for years (in 1968, admittedly a Liberal landslide, it voted 91% Liberal!).

Increasing suburbanization has changed its character into a more typcially suburban riding. It is above average in income and education and is overwhelmingly home-owners, while also having more francoiphone voters still than any other Ottawa riding save Ottawa-Vanier.

The core francophone communities are the old Orleans village polls (about 4-5 of them) plus some of the newer more easterly subdivisions (south of Innes near Trim road). The Conservative MP Galipeau wins good margins in the middle class anglophone polls but has increased his support in the francophone polls as well. They trend Liberal still but not as much as in the past.

I'm sorry, but you must have misunderstood me. I only described it's current voting patterns. Indeed, current day Orleans is largely English suburbia, though in the past it certainly was Catholic-French heartland similar to Prescott-Russell today.

The maps for Glengarry-Prescott-Russell will be rather interesting, though rather blue for 2008 given the margin of Lemieux's victory. The fact that Glengarry-Prescott-Russell is held by a Conservative is rather telling of the rout of the Liberals in almost all of rural Ontario.

[deansherratt]

My apologies than for misunderstanding! I also took ruthless advantage to show off some knowledge I had of the riding's history!

I look forward to Glengarry-Prescott-Russell...It will show a pretty big Conservative margin in suburban Cumberland....

[deansherratt]

Here is a link to a map I did (hand colouring btw) for the 1975 provincial election. I am seated at the bottom right to show perspective as well as how young I was once...

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=3171489&l=67a8485934&id=612797173

[Hash]

We haven't had much Mississauga coverage yet? Wouldn't we all love to see that?

[Hash]

We haven't had much Mississauga coverage yet? Wouldn't we all love to see that?

Well, I got it to work!

[Hash]

I'm surprised Kenora hasn't been mentioned before. It's an interesting map and the results in 2008 give all three parties a run for this seat.

Voting patterns in the far north are very entertaining. Tribal differences? For reference, the Tories polled like 1% in most of the far northern reaches

[Hatman 🍁]

Kenora's a strange place. So NDP friendly provincially, yet federally...  it's bucking the regional trend. I once met a girl from Dryden I think who worked with the Liberal MP before the election, and she swore to me the seat would fall to us. I wasn't so sure.

[MaxQue]

I must disagree a little with those who described its voting behavior. As a french rural riding, it was very Liberal (see returns for Russell riding). Indeed, the village of Orleans was very heavily Liberals for years (in 1968, admittedly a Liberal landslide, it voted 91% Liberal!).

Increasing suburbanization has changed its character into a more typcially suburban riding. It is above average in income and education and is overwhelmingly home-owners, while also having more francoiphone voters still than any other Ottawa riding save Ottawa-Vanier.

The core francophone communities are the old Orleans village polls (about 4-5 of them) plus some of the newer more easterly subdivisions (south of Innes near Trim road). The Conservative MP Galipeau wins good margins in the middle class anglophone polls but has increased his support in the francophone polls as well. They trend Liberal still but not as much as in the past.

I'm sorry, but you must have misunderstood me. I only described it's current voting patterns. Indeed, current day Orleans is largely English suburbia, though in the past it certainly was Catholic-French heartland similar to Prescott-Russell today.

The maps for Glengarry-Prescott-Russell will be rather interesting, though rather blue for 2008 given the margin of Lemieux's victory. The fact that Glengarry-Prescott-Russell is held by a Conservative is rather telling of the rout of the Liberals in almost all of rural Ontario.

I'm still working on it. The map will be ready tomorrow, probably in the evening. If not, in the night.

[Jimross187]

That former borough is the last place God made. Why would anyone be interested in it? Even when it had competitive elections and interesting MPs (that was both a long time ago), I was bored with the place.

I'm interested because I ran campaigns there in the 2004 and 2006 federal elections.

[Hash]

The Greenies polled 16% in Brandon-Souris, a rural Manitoba riding.

[trebor204]

The Green wins were all around Brandon University.

[Hash]

The Green wins were all around Brandon University.

And the NDP wins outside Brandon were, IIRC, all Indian reserves. There's a sizeable Native pop in the riding.

[Hash]

Made primarily because there's a by-election scheduled for the riding soon enough. The Bloc MP resigned to run and lose in the Rivière-du-Loup provincial by-election.



Guess where the Tory candidate was from...

[Hatman 🍁]

Wasn't the Liberal candidate in Brandon-Souris the 9/11 conspiracy woman? Would explain why the Liberals collapsed there.

[trebor204]

Wasn't the Liberal candidate in Brandon-Souris the 9/11 conspiracy woman? Would explain why the Liberals collapsed there.

That would be (Winnipeg) Kildonan-St Paul. Lesley Hughes ran for the Liberals.

[Hash]

Wasn't the Liberal candidate in Brandon-Souris the 9/11 conspiracy woman? Would explain why the Liberals collapsed there.

Nope, it was in Kildonan—St. Paul.

The Liberal collapse in Brandon-Souris is nothing spectacular, it was a nationwide trend or about that.

[Hatman 🍁]

oh, damn. What's with the Green support then?

[Hash]

oh, damn. What's with the Green support then?

There's the University, but 16% is rather high. It can't all come from Brandon.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just to say (again if I've not already) that this is a great thread; one of the best for a while. Also, friendly welcome to all the new Canadians from your friendly neighbourhood dictator.

[Hash]

Two biggies in Toronto

[minionofmidas]

Hey folks...don't know if this is old news or not, but I just noticed this today. Federal polling division boundaries are finally available to us peons through GeoGratis, if you have a GIS program. They go back to 2000.

Would it be possible to make maps of 2006 with that?

If so, I have an odd request. (Actually, I'd be somewhat interested even in 2008. Dull as it will look.) Macleod, Alberta. Myron Wolf Child took 2.1% of the vote riding-wide in 2006 as a Native Nationalist indy... I want to see how he did on the riding's four reserves.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hey folks...don't know if this is old news or not, but I just noticed this today. Federal polling division boundaries are finally available to us peons through GeoGratis, if you have a GIS program. They go back to 2000.

Would it be possible to make maps of 2006 with that?

If so, I have an odd request. (Actually, I'd be somewhat interested even in 2008. Dull as it will look.) Macleod, Alberta. Myron Wolf Child took 2.1% of the vote riding-wide in 2006 as a Native Nationalist indy... I want to see how he did on the riding's four reserves.

You don't really need a map to find that out.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Two biggies in Toronto

Nice work. The Jewish/Italian distinction in Eglinton-Lawrence is clear, but what's interesting is the well-off WASPy Liberal pocket in the east-central part of the riding.

As someone (sorry, it was way down in the thread somewhere) mentioned before, the Tories are really disadvantaged by this map. Eglinton-Lawrence basically makes sense by non-political criteria of urban geography, but Don Valley West is quite weird - the multi-ethnic tower areas in the southeast really have little to do with North Toronto, and are separated by an unpopulated industrial stretch.