Canadian federal polling division files

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The combination of working-class east, academic/middle-class-liberal north, and more wealthy conservative west is sort of oddly reminiscent of the original London. (Obviously a huge simplification in the case of the larger one).

Yes, I've noticed that before. Quite amusing really.

[Linus Van Pelt]

The combination of working-class east, academic/middle-class-liberal north, and more wealthy conservative west is sort of oddly reminiscent of the original London. (Obviously a huge simplification in the case of the larger one).

Yes, I've noticed that before. Quite amusing really.

Southwestern Ontario was laid out to look like England by its original colonial administration. For it to work you have to flip it almost on its side so the Michigan border is the "south" and towards Toronto is the "north", with Lakes Erie and Ontario as the "east". Look at where London is on this orientation, and consider that it's on the Thames River in Middlesex County, that the next county downriver is Kent, whose main city is Chatham, and that on the other side, up the Thames River is Oxford County. Also observe where Norfolk County is. The Niagara region was originally Lincoln County, while Toronto was originally called York (preserved in the county name which was separated from the city itself in the 1950's). The river that empties into Lake Ontario in Etobicoke, which was then the countryside west ("south" on this orientation) of York is the Humber, and the county just past York is Durham, and then comes Northumberland...

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are some maps by municipalities

GTA

Ahh, good work. I hope to see some more stuff!

[Hatman 🍁]

The combination of working-class east, academic/middle-class-liberal north, and more wealthy conservative west is sort of oddly reminiscent of the original London. (Obviously a huge simplification in the case of the larger one).

Yes, I've noticed that before. Quite amusing really.

Southwestern Ontario was laid out to look like England by its original colonial administration. For it to work you have to flip it almost on its side so the Michigan border is the "south" and towards Toronto is the "north", with Lakes Erie and Ontario as the "east". Look at where London is on this orientation, and consider that it's on the Thames River in Middlesex County, that the next county downriver is Kent, whose main city is Chatham, and that on the other side, up the Thames River is Oxford County. Also observe where Norfolk County is. The Niagara region was originally Lincoln County, while Toronto was originally called York (preserved in the county name which was separated from the city itself in the 1950's). The river that empties into Lake Ontario in Etobicoke, which was then the countryside west ("south" on this orientation) of York is the Humber, and the county just past York is Durham, and then comes Northumberland...

Ah wow, weird! I've never realized this!

[mileslunn]

I've created some municipal maps on my computer, but I cannot figure out how to transfer them to the forum.  Could someone e-mail me on how I can transfer them since it won't let me copy and paste.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The problem is that you've saved them as .bmp's. Save as .png and everything should go fine.

[mileslunn]

Still not able to copy on this file.  Do you type in the file name under hyperlink.  I know this is annoying, but could someone walk me through this.  I should fine after getting it right once.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Still not able to copy on this file.  Do you type in the file name under hyperlink.  I know this is annoying, but could someone walk me through this.  I should fine after getting it right once.

Ah, right. I think I see now.

Go to the link at the top marked "gallery", click on "Election Maps - International", scroll down, click on "add a picture" and it's easy from there.

[mileslunn]

Still Cannot find the place to add picture.  Maybe I haven't signed up properly?

[trebor204]

I'm having the same problem.
I go to Election Maps - International.
I see a pile of maps,
At the bottom of the page  then "Return to Gallery", "SMF Gallery", and then "log-out"

I could post them using Photobucket or Flickr.

[Hatman 🍁]

Still Cannot find the place to add picture.  Maybe I haven't signed up properly?

You either need more posts, or you need permission (or both). The easiest way is to go to imageshack.us and upload there and copy the URL here.

[mileslunn]

Maybe thats the problem.  In the mean time, I am happy to give out some of the data and if anybody wishes to put into a map that would be great

Below is by municipality and winning party in terms of the percentage range

GTA

Tories over 50%

Brock, Clarington, Scugog, Uxbridge, Whitby, Whitchurch-Stouffville, King, Georgina, East Gwilimbury, Caledon, and Halton Halls (All of these are largely exurbs and low density suburbs as well as have sizeable rural components)

Tories in the 40-50% range

Oshawa, Aurora, Newmarket, Oakville, Milton, and Burlington

Liberals in the 40-50% range

Ajax, Pickering, Toronto, Markham, Vaughan, Richmond Hill, Brampton, and Mississauga (The Liberals won the city proper and all the inner suburbs, you can see that on a map easily)

GVRD

Tories over 60%

Township of Langley, Electoral District A, Anmore

Tories 50-60%

Lions Bay, West Vancouver, Belcarra, Port Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, Richmond, City of Langley, Barnston Island

Tories 40-50%

District of North Vancouver, Coquitlam, Port Moody, Delta, Surrey, White Rock

Liberals 40-50%

University Endowment Lands

NDP 40-50%

Burnaby, New Westminster

Tories 30-40%

City of North Vancouver

Liberals 30-40%

Bowen Island and Vancouver (My parents have a getaway cabin there and despite its rural nature it is very similiar to the Gulf Islands in its politics and for our American viewers somewhat akin to Bainbridge Island and Martha's Vineyard.  Fits the profile of an island getaway with strong liberal leanings)

Hamilton pre-amalgamation

Tories over 50%

Ancaster, Flamborough, and Glanbrook

Tories 30-40%

Stoney Creek and Dundas

NDP over 40%

Hamilton (old city)

Ottawa pre-amalgamation

Tories over 60%

Rideau, Osgoode, West Carleton, and Goulbourn (all the rural areas essentially)

Tories 50-60%

Nepean and Kanata

Tories 40-50%

Gloucester and Cumberland

Liberals 40-50%

Rockcliffe Park and Vanier (ironically the Tories won Rockcliffe Park in 2006, although its very wealthy so more you traditional business type Tories, not your right wing populist ones)

Liberals 30-40%

Ottawa (old city)

Niagara Regional Municipality

Tories over 60%

West Lincoln

Tories 50-60%

Grimsby, Lincoln, Wainfleet, and Niagara on the Lake

Tories 40-50%

Pelham, St. Catharines, Niagara Falls, and Fort Erie

Liberals 30-40%

Port Colborne (This was John Maloney's home town, probably the reason for this one)

NDP 30-40%

Thorold and Welland

Waterloo Regional Municipality

Tories over 50%

North Dumfries, Wilmot, Woolwich, and Wellesley (all the rural municipalities otherwise)

Tories 40-50%

Cambridge

Tories 30-40%

Kitchener

Liberals 30-40%

Waterloo (they narrowly lost the riding, but Waterloo has the university and also a strong high-tech sector, the location of RIM, the maker of blackberry thus why it is the most liberal part of K-W)

Essex County by municipality

Tories over 40%

Kingsville and Leamington

Tories 30-40%

LaSalle, Amherstburg, Lakeshore, and Essex

Liberals over 30% and won

Pelee Island

NDP over 50%

Windsor

NDP 30-40%

Tecumseh

Simcoe County by municipality

Tories over 50% (they didn't crack the 60% in any of the municipalities though)

Bradford-West Gwilimbury, Innisfil, New Tecumseth, Wasaga Beach, Adajala-Tosorontio, Clearview, Essa, Oro-Medonte, Ramara, Severn, Springwater, and Barrie (mostly the ones not along Lake Huron)

Tories 40-50%

Tiny, Midland, Tay, Orillia, and Collingwood

Liberals 30-40%

Penetanguishene (has a large Francophone community)

I haven't assembled a map for Ottawa and Simcoe County, but if someone has a blank municipality one I could do it quickly.  The others I have so I could e-mail them to anyone who could then post them.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hey, you should know that the University Endowment lands are part of Greater Vancouver Electoral District A.

Anyways, I'd be happy to make these maps for you when I get some time. Until then, keep making these lists. If you do all of Ontario, I could make a big map. (but, you'd have to combine the amalgamated cities).

[mileslunn]

I have also done two provinces by county and I have the maps ready so I could e-mail them to anyone who is willing to post them.

New Brunswick

Tories over 60%

Carleton County and Charlotte County (I believe these have large Evangelical populations, but someone who knows more about them could maybe explain why they are so Conservative)

Tories 50-60%

Queens County, Sunbury County, and Victoria County (This went Liberal in a landslide in 2006 although I think Andy Savoy came from this area, plus unlike Carleton County it has a larger Francophone community and is mostly Catholic, still I don't know why it swung so hard to the Conservatives in 2008)

Tories 40-50%

Northumberland County, York County, Albert County, Kings County

Tories 30-40%

Saint John County

Liberals 40-50%

Madawaska County, Restigouche County, Kent County, Westmoreland County (all have a large Francophone community, although ironically the Tories won Madawaska County in 2006.  I am guessing since it is so heavily French, their arts cuts that hurt them in Quebec probably had a spillover effect.  This county seems to move more in line with Quebec than New Brunswick)

NDP over 50%

Gloucester County

Ontario by County

Tories over 60%

Renfrew County and Lanark County (These both went for the Canadian Alliance in 2000)

Tories 50-60%

Simcoe County, Dufferin County, Oxford County, Lambton County, Parry Sound District, Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry United Counties, Leeds and Grenville United Counties, Hastings County, Haliburton County, Kawartha Lakes Division (mostly Eastern and Central Ontario, otherwise the areas the Reform/Alliance were most competitive in prior to the merger)

NDP over 50%

Cochrane District

Tories 40-50%

Durham Regional Municipality, Halton Regional Municipality, Niagara Regional Municipality, Grey County, Bruce County, Waterloo Regional Municipality, Brant County, Norfolk County, Perth County (got over 50% if you take out Stratford which was a 3 way split, very arts and culture town so probably why the Tories didn't do so well here), Huron County, Elgin County, Chatham-Kent, Muskoka District, Ottawa (Tories fared poorly in the old city while dominated the amalgmated parts, maybe that is why Harris amalgmated it, he wanted more Tory friendly mayors), Prescott and Russell United Counties, Lennox & Addington County, Peterborough County (got over 50% if you remove Peterborough), Prince Edward county, Northumberland County

Liberals 40-50%

Toronto, York Regional Municipality (Tories also got over 40% here and in the municipality Vaughan both got over 40% although the Liberals dominated the Italian western section and the Tories the Jewish Eastern section), Peel Regional Municipality, Nippissing District (one of only two non-GTA sub-divisions to go Liberal)

NDP 40-50%

Algoma District, Manitoulin District, Rainy River District, Greater Sudbury, Timiskaming District (all Northern Ontario, their strength is very concentrated in a few heavy union areas in Southern Ontario)

Tories 30-40%

Wellington County (got over 50% in every municipality save Guelph which they got in the high 20s), Haldimand County (Independent Gary McHale won many polls near Caledonia where there is a lot of anger over the dispute, he was also pretty right wing too), Middlesex County (got over 50% in the rural municipalities, but 35% in London), Kenora District

Liberals 30-40%

Frontenac County (Largely due to Kingston, lost most of the rural municipalities though, although the Tories were weaker in this area, I am guessing since this was heavily settled by the Loyalists who tended to be more Red Tories.  Kingston has produced a number of Red Tories such as Hugh Segal and Flora MacDonald and use to vote Tory provincially and federally until the party swung to the right)

NDP 30-40%

Hamilton (sharp divide between old city which went heavily NDP, suburbs below the enscarpment which were three way splits and suburbs above the enscarpment which went heavily Tory), Essex County, Thunder Bay District (performed better outside Thunder Bay as the Liberals were stronger in the city where the carbon tax was less of an issue), and Sudbury District.

[mileslunn]

Hey, you should know that the University Endowment lands are part of Greater Vancouver Electoral District A.

Anyways, I'd be happy to make these maps for you when I get some time. Until then, keep making these lists. If you do all of Ontario, I could make a big map. (but, you'd have to combine the amalgamated cities).

True, I guess I meant the unorganized part or the part excluding University Endowment Lands and Barnston Island.  I don't think I could do all of Ontario, I though I could do Southern Ontario as much of the North is unorganized territory

[Hash]

You need 50 posts to post maps in the Gallery. In the meantime, upload them to Photobucket or imageshack.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Interesting stuff - how are you getting this info? Just looking through all the poll-by-poll files and adding up the polls?

Tories over 60%

Carleton County and Charlotte County (I believe these have large Evangelical populations, but someone who knows more about them could maybe explain why they are so Conservative)

The Saint John valley has a lot of Baptists. I'm not sure whether you'd call them "Evangelical" - theologically, they are, but they're more traditional in denominational organization.

[mileslunn]

Interesting stuff - how are you getting this info? Just looking through all the poll-by-poll files and adding up the polls?

About a month after the election ended, the data was in spreadsheet format on Elections Canada website, so I saved this.  Being in spreadsheet data made it quite efficient and easy to do

Tories over 60%

Carleton County and Charlotte County (I believe these have large Evangelical populations, but someone who knows more about them could maybe explain why they are so Conservative)

The Saint John valley has a lot of Baptists. I'm not sure whether you'd call them "Evangelical" - theologically, they are, but they're more traditional in denominational organization.

The term Evangelical is somewhat subjective I guess.  What I really mean is Conservative Protestant groups.  Baptist, Dutch Reformed, Mormons (not really Protestant but Conservative nonetheless), Pentecoastal, and Calvinist tend to generally be quite Conservative in their views as opposed to more liberal denominations such as the United Church or Anglican.

[Hash]

Do you have Quebec by MRC or county equivalent?

[Hatman 🍁]

Hey, you should know that the University Endowment lands are part of Greater Vancouver Electoral District A.

Anyways, I'd be happy to make these maps for you when I get some time. Until then, keep making these lists. If you do all of Ontario, I could make a big map. (but, you'd have to combine the amalgamated cities).

True, I guess I meant the unorganized part or the part excluding University Endowment Lands and Barnston Island.  I don't think I could do all of Ontario, I though I could do Southern Ontario as much of the North is unorganized territory

South is fine. I'll make the Ontario map, now actually (by census division).

[mileslunn]

Do you have Quebec by MRC or county equivalent?

No, not yet.  I would take about week for me to get this done, but I could work on this.  They have a lot more MRCs

[mileslunn]

Also, lets still work on getting the poll by poll done if we can.  If someone could show me how to work this, I might be able to e-mail one.

Some other interesting ones though

416 - by former municipality

Liberals over 50%

Scarborough

Liberals 40-50%

Toronto, East York, York, Etobicoke, North York

The interesting part here is more who came in second.  In Toronto, York, and East York, the NDP came in second whereas the Tories in North York, Scarborough, and Etobicoke, otherwise the NDP was strongest near the core of the city while the Tories did better away from it.  I also believe Scarborough is the most ethnically diverse of them, I think over 60% are visible minorities so that might explain why the Liberals do so well there.  Nonetheless the margins are nowhere near what the Tories get in Rural Alberta.

[Hatman 🍁]

[Hash]

I also believe Scarborough is the most ethnically diverse of them, I think over 60% are visible minorities so that might explain why the Liberals do so well there. 

Not 'might'. I think that it explains it fair and square. Visible minorities are Liberal strongholds, though less so now than in the past.

[Hatman 🍁]

Noooooo Brunswick