Canadian federal polling division files

[the506]

Technically, New Brunswick has local service districts, which are fairly rudimentary municipal governments. A lot of (most) of those boundaries coincide with parishes. I was actually going to do an NB map with parishes if nobody else got to it first.

Nova Scotia doesn't have much for rural municipalities...a few counties are split in 2 but that's it. There aren't any geographical divisions like parishes either.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ahh, this reminds me of a debate we had on Wikipedia many years ago

Nova Scotia does have county subdivisions, but once again, they are mostly just for census purposes, IIRC.

PEI has lots, which would be interesting, and Newfoundland also has unorganized subdivisions.

[mileslunn]

I'll try to get the Nova Scotia counties done.  As for New Brunswick, it would be great if someone could do a town map.  Whomever gets it done first can post it.  I'll do the Nova Scotia town map later.  As for PEI, I think a poll by poll makes more sense as Elections Canada doesn't give breakdown by lots.

[adma]

Tories 30-40%

Kitchener

Liberals 30-40%

Waterloo (they narrowly lost the riding, but Waterloo has the university and also a strong high-tech sector, the location of RIM, the maker of blackberry thus why it is the most liberal part of K-W)

Though rather ironically, it's represented provincially by a rare remaining urban Tory, Elizabeth Witmer.

I think Waterloo's remaining Liberal (presumably by a hair's thread--and have advance/special polls factored in in any way in the analysis?) has more to do with its being circumscribed entirely within Kitchener-Waterloo riding, where Andrew Telegdi had residual strength and, to be frank, few really saw his recount defeat coming.  In fact, I believe the voting-profile difference between the cities of Waterloo and Kitchener would be negligible, if it weren't for Kitchener including a big chunk of Kitchener-Conestoga, where the Tories' Herb Albrecht was first elected in '06 and reelected in a landslide in '08.  (In and of itself, the Kitchener part of K-Con would probably be much more Liberal-leaning if distributed into a different type of riding.)

[mileslunn]

Here is Nova Scotia by county

Anyone who could make a map for this that would be great

Annapolis County ------ Tories 30-40% (only won by 9 votes in this county, so talk about close)

Antigonish County ------- Tories 40-50% (Elizabeth May won most of the polls in Antigonish, but elswhere went strongly fro MacKay)

Cape Breton County ------- Liberals 50-60%

Colchester County ----------- Independent 60-70% (Tories got 48% in 2006 here)

Cumberland County ---------- Independent 70-80% (Tories got 58% here in 2006, so Casey seems quite popular in this area, although I think this is the area the NS Tories provincially are strongest in so probably the most conservative part of the province)

Digby County -------- Liberals 30-40% (this is the only county Thibault won in both 2006 and 2008 in his riding, I believe it has a large Francophone community)

Guysborough County ----------- Tories 40-50% (Tories even finished ahead of the Liberals in the Cape Breton-Canso portion despite badly losing the riding)

Halifax County ---------- NDP 40-50% (This is where the NDP's strength mainly lies, Tories came in third here as well)

Hants County ---------- Liberals 40-50%

Inverness County --------- Liberals 40-50%

Kings County ------------ Liberals 30-40% (Liberals won most of the Kings-Hants portion, while the Tories in the West Nova portion)

Lunenburg County -------- Tories 30-40%

Pictou County ----------- Tories 40-50% (their best county in Nova Scotia at 48%)

Queens County ----------- NDP 30-40% (their only win in Rural Nova Scotia, albeit not by much)

Richmond County ---------- Liberals 40-50%

Shelburne County ---------- Tories 30-40%

Victoria County ------------ Liberals 50-60% (Another Liberal stronghold, and one of the few anywhere in English speaking Rural Canada)

Yarmouth County --------- Tories 40-50%

[Verily]

Queens County is interesting considering the provincial NDP only barely won the seat there in 2006 while running a close second province-wide and without a Liberal candidate.

[mileslunn]

Queens County is interesting considering the provincial NDP only barely won the seat there in 2006 while running a close second province-wide and without a Liberal candidate.

If you took Liverpool out the Tories would have won here.  The Liberals were hurt by the carbon tax, which probably helped the NDP, while the Atlantic Accord debate seemed to hurt Gerald Keddy despite not impacting Peter MacKay or Greg Kerr that much.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Queens County is interesting considering the provincial NDP only barely won the seat there in 2006 while running a close second province-wide and without a Liberal candidate.

Yeah, the NDP's recent gains here are quite interesting, considering it's traditionally Tory and the party's other areas on the north-central mainland remain quite strong. The area is very WASPy:  South Shore-St. Margaret's is 307th out of 308th in % of Catholics, with only Abbotsford lower. (which, given the levels of non-religion in B.C. compared to the Maritimes, is saying something).

[mileslunn]

Queens County is interesting considering the provincial NDP only barely won the seat there in 2006 while running a close second province-wide and without a Liberal candidate.

Yeah, the NDP's recent gains here are quite interesting, considering it's traditionally Tory and the party's other areas on the north-central mainland remain quite strong. The area is very WASPy:  South Shore-St. Margaret's is 307th out of 308th in % of Catholics, with only Abbotsford lower. (which, given the levels of non-religion in B.C. compared to the Maritimes, is saying something).

Actually South Shore-St. Margaret's has a high number of people of German descent, especially in Lunenburg County.  Not surprisingly many are Lutheran although Lutherans tend to be more moderate than some other denominations such as Baptist, Mormons, or Dutch Reformed, but not as liberal as Anglican or United Church. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's your map boys



I got 3 counties wrong (Guysborough, Queens and Digby on my census divison map in the gallery)

Speaking of which, I hope you can do PEI (only 3 counties) and Quebec. Well, I hope you can do all of Canada...

[Verily]

Queens County is interesting considering the provincial NDP only barely won the seat there in 2006 while running a close second province-wide and without a Liberal candidate.

Yeah, the NDP's recent gains here are quite interesting, considering it's traditionally Tory and the party's other areas on the north-central mainland remain quite strong. The area is very WASPy:  South Shore-St. Margaret's is 307th out of 308th in % of Catholics, with only Abbotsford lower. (which, given the levels of non-religion in B.C. compared to the Maritimes, is saying something).

I doubt Abbotsford has many non-religious people, though. Evangelical heaven. That was where the amusing NDP-Liberal spat in 2006 was, though, right?

Anyway, the NDP now holds every seat that makes up South Shore-St Margaret's provincially, all except Lunenberg West with large majorities. I would expect them to take it at the next GE even if the NDP falls off somewhat (as long as they don't collapse, anyway).

[Хahar 🤔]

The Nova Scotia map looks rather random.

[MaxQue]

The Nova Scotia map looks rather random.

Well, a riding map of Nova Scotia looks random too.

[Hatman 🍁]

If we could get results by census subdivision, it might be more interesting and less random.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nunavut results by region

Qikiqtaaluk (Baffin Island, Melville Peninsula, Hudson Bay Islands and the QE Islands)
Liberal      1612   35.3%
NDP      1594   34.9%
Conservative   1110   24.3%
Green      249   5.5%
Total      4565
(Without Iqaluit, this would be a very NDP area. Hunter Tootoo has to run next time!)

Kivalliq (Southern Mainland, Southampton Island)
Conservative   795   43.0%
Liberal      439   23.8%
NDP      369   20.0%
Green      244   13.2%
Total      1847

Kitikmeot (Western Mainland, Victoria Island)
Conservative   864   59.8%
Liberal      238   16.5%
NDP       222   15.4%
Green      121   8.4%
Total      1445

[Hash]

Qikiqtaaluk is a great place.

[Hatman 🍁]

Qikiqtaaluk is a great place.

Indeed! Lowest Green % in Nunavut!

[Hash]

Qikiqtaaluk is a great place.

Indeed! Lowest Green % in Nunavut!

I don't care about the Greenies anymore, especially under their current piece of sh**t leader.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Well clearly the way to win Nunavut is to have a candidate with deep personal roots in all regions at once.

[Hash]

Well clearly the way to win Nunavut is to have a candidate with deep personal roots in all regions at once.

Elections in Nunavut are basically decided on local appeal and the winner is the one who appeals to the largest base and/or the region which is most populated.

Probably why the Marijuana Party got 7%.

[Linus Van Pelt]

B.C. Southern Interior (turned out I didn't end up having as much else to do as I thought)
Four insets follow, outlined in red on the main map.


Similkameen. Princeton in the northwest, Keremeos in the southeast.


South Okanagan. Osoyoos in the south, Oliver in the north. The NDP poll is a reserve.


Boundary country. Main town Grand Forks.


West Kootenays. The town in the northeast is Nelson, the one just left of the centre of the map is Castlegar, and then the row on the bottom from left to right goes Rossland, Warfield, Trail, Montrose, Fruitvale, Salmo.

[mileslunn]

Polls to complete

I will continue to work on the subdivisions, but here is a list of some polls that we should consider working on

British Columbia

Kamloops
Prince George
Kelowna

Alberta

Calgary

Saskatchewan

Prince Albert

Ontario

Thunder Bay
Sudbury
GTA (Durham Regional Municipality, York Regional Municipality, Peel Regional Municipality, and Halton Regional Municipality)
Niagara Regional Municipality in its entirety
Barrie or preferably all of Simcoe County
Sarnia
Kingston
Peterborough
Belleville

Quebec

Sherbrooke
Saguenay
Laval
Montreal suburbs (both South shore and Northern suburbs)
Trois Rivieres
Eastern Townships especially those near the border would be interesting too

PEI

Preferably all of the polls but at least Charlottetown

Nova Scotia

Cape Breton Island

Newfoundland & Labrador

St. John's


Yukon Territory

I will work on the three counties of PEI this evening and do the New Brunswick and Nova Scotia municipalities over the weekend.  Also we should try and get the sub-divisions done for each province if possible.

[mileslunn]

One more thing,

I was wondering if anybody would be willing to do a map for the former municipalities of Hamilton and Ottawa prior to amalgmation and even Toronto (although somewhat boring here).  I supplied the data in an earlier post.

I can also give the data for the Greater Victoria if anybody wants to do a municipality map here

[Verily]

Why are the Kootenays so NDP, and is that pattern continued in Kootenay--Columbia?

[mileslunn]

Why are the Kootenays so NDP, and is that pattern continued in Kootenay--Columbia?

The Kootenays in Kootenay-Columbia are very Conservative, quite the opposite.  You see the same provincially where East Kootenay went strongly BC Liberal and if you add the BC Conservatives over 60% voted centre-right, whereas Nelson-Creston and West Kootenay are both solid NDP ridings provincially.

It is sort of a weird combo, but here is my best guess

Grand Forks and Castlegar have a large Dhukobor population who are pacifist and communalist in lifestyle

Trail has a large smelter so heavily unionized

Rossland is a ski resort so your liberal attitude not unlike Sun Valley and Jackson in the US.

Nelson is a hippie enclave, has a large draft dodger population from the Vietnam War in the 60s.

In fact in Kootenay-Columbia, the northern parts of the riding up around Golden and Revelstoke are the most competitive parts, the Southern parts are staunchly Conservative.  In Cranbrook, the Tories got 64%.