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Author Topic: Canadian federal polling division files  (Read 98263 times)
Hatman
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« Reply #150 on: July 15, 2009, 05:15:32 pm »
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The NDP won a poll in Wakefield last time, but they lost it. Weird that they won a poll in Angers.

They won a poll in Cantley too, you can see it if you pull up the large version.

I saw that in the results, but I thought it was a combined poll.
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« Reply #151 on: July 15, 2009, 06:13:26 pm »
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Did the Greens win any polls in Quebec?  Might there be a riding where five candidates carried at least one poll?
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Hatman
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« Reply #152 on: July 15, 2009, 06:16:07 pm »
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Did the Greens win any polls in Quebec?  Might there be a riding where five candidates carried at least one poll?

It would be an independent as the 5th party, if there is. If the Greens won a poll in Quebec, it wouldn't be in the same district as the NDP.  Maybe Portneuf? I doubt it though.
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« Reply #153 on: July 16, 2009, 01:36:13 pm »
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You could probably gerrymander an NDP riding into there somewhere.

In Regina, that wouldn't be a gerrymander.
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« Reply #154 on: July 16, 2009, 05:41:48 pm »
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Here's a series of Vancouver Island ridings...first, Vancouver Island North:


The rest of the island:


And the Victoria area:
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Hatman
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« Reply #155 on: July 16, 2009, 07:14:53 pm »
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Wow. Vancouver Island hurts my eyes.

Strangely, no green polls. Also, Saanich-Gulf Islands would look different if the NDP candidate didn't drop out. I'm thinking all those polls near Victoria would be more of a Liberal-NDP mix.

Also, after looking at this, aside from Victoria, it appears Vancouver Island is a lot like Northern Ontario, in that the rural areas are more likely to support NDP.
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« Reply #156 on: July 16, 2009, 07:16:10 pm »

Did Blair Wilson win any polls in West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country?
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Hatman
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« Reply #157 on: July 16, 2009, 07:22:31 pm »
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Did Blair Wilson win any polls in West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country?

He won six polls, and tied two others. the506 sent me a table showing how many polls each party won in each district.
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« Reply #158 on: July 16, 2009, 07:31:01 pm »

Did Blair Wilson win any polls in West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country?

He won six polls, and tied two others. the506 sent me a table showing how many polls each party won in each district.

Mind forwarding it to me, mar plij?
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Hatman
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« Reply #159 on: July 16, 2009, 07:37:19 pm »
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Did Blair Wilson win any polls in West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country?

He won six polls, and tied two others. the506 sent me a table showing how many polls each party won in each district.

Mind forwarding it to me, mar plij?

done
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« Reply #160 on: July 16, 2009, 08:42:05 pm »
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For anyone else, here it is:

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/polls.xls
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« Reply #161 on: July 17, 2009, 02:41:50 am »
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Why is that stretch along the east coast (North from Nanaimo) so Conservative?
Also, wow at Nanaimo itself. Does it just naturally fall into a northside and a southside, or is there a lot of personal vote for incumbents involved in creating that impression?
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« Reply #162 on: July 17, 2009, 03:44:30 am »
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Why is that stretch along the east coast (North from Nanaimo) so Conservative?
Also, wow at Nanaimo itself. Does it just naturally fall into a northside and a southside, or is there a lot of personal vote for incumbents involved in creating that impression?

I was looking at Nanaimo and wondering that myself - although I was wondering if it was a bit of a gerrymander, given that the riding that the northern half falls in seems to be predominantly Conservative, but with some strong NDP polls, whereas the riding in the southern half of the city seems to be a pretty strong NDP riding throughout - so I was wondering if the Tory end of the city had been deliberately put in a possibly marginal Tory riding to bolster the vote, whereas the NDP end had been left in a strong NDP riding?
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« Reply #163 on: July 17, 2009, 04:04:58 am »
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It's not as if splitting the town can be avoided, except maybe by drawing a district tightly around it and having another connecting coastal areas north and south of it, nominally connected through the comparatively empty west coast - now that would be a gerrymander (though it wouldn't look it).
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« Reply #164 on: July 17, 2009, 05:47:50 am »
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It's not as if splitting the town can be avoided, except maybe by drawing a district tightly around it and having another connecting coastal areas north and south of it, nominally connected through the comparatively empty west coast - now that would be a gerrymander (though it wouldn't look it).

Yeah - that's what I thought would be the (perhaps more natural) riding - the town and its surrounds? Probably more of a community of interest around the one town, rather than splitting it? Anyway, it may not be a problem, as you said, it might be more the personal vote of a popular incumbent, or it may be, as Earl suggested in a previous thread, strategic voting.
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« Reply #165 on: July 17, 2009, 08:52:30 am »
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Why is that stretch along the east coast (North from Nanaimo) so Conservative?

It's one of those areas where old middle class people go to die.

Quote
Also, wow at Nanaimo itself. Does it just naturally fall into a northside and a southside, or is there a lot of personal vote for incumbents involved in creating that impression?

It's a fairly natural (ie; class) division IIRC.
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« Reply #166 on: July 17, 2009, 08:56:59 am »
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Why is that stretch along the east coast (North from Nanaimo) so Conservative?

It's one of those areas where old middle class people go to die.
Might have guessed. Semi sorta did, actually.
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« Reply #167 on: July 17, 2009, 09:06:39 am »

I assume the large swaths of land voting NDP on Vancouver Island are industrial areas dominated by logging of some sort, or mining if it's still around (there was coal mining in Nanaimo at the turn of the 20th century, and Nanaimo elected Socialist Party MLAs).
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Hatman
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« Reply #168 on: July 17, 2009, 09:08:25 am »
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Why is that stretch along the east coast (North from Nanaimo) so Conservative?

It's one of those areas where old middle class people go to die.
Might have guessed. Semi sorta did, actually.


Some of those old people vote NDP, though. Vancouver Island is full of them.
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« Reply #169 on: July 17, 2009, 09:10:15 am »
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Why is that stretch along the east coast (North from Nanaimo) so Conservative?

It's one of those areas where old middle class people go to die.
Might have guessed. Semi sorta did, actually.


Some of those old people vote NDP, though. Vancouver Island is full of them.
Well there's a difference between old people who go there to die and old people who've lived there all their life...
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« Reply #170 on: July 17, 2009, 09:13:20 am »
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After having looked at a map of Nanaimo, I can see most of the old city is in Nanaimo-Cowichan, whereas the newer developments are in Nanaimo-Alberni.
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« Reply #171 on: July 18, 2009, 09:38:01 am »
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West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast:



I'm surprised how blue the city of West Vancouver is.
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Hatman
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« Reply #172 on: July 18, 2009, 09:47:21 am »
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West Vancouver is where most of the people live in this riding. Some interesting things going on outside WestVan though, like in Whistler.  The map seems to show some heavy vote splitting there between the Greens and Liberals (and possibly to a lesser extent the NDP) allowing the Tories to win a few polls.
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« Reply #173 on: July 18, 2009, 09:49:00 am »

Western Arctic would be interesting.
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« Reply #174 on: July 18, 2009, 10:03:45 am »
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Why is Bowen Island so liberal? Makes little sense from what the wiki has to say about how it is now - you can guess from the article that it is latte liberal, but are left wondering why.
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