Canadian federal polling division files

[Sibboleth]

The main Hasidic community is actually in a specific corner of Outremont of all places.

Isn't Outremont close to where the original Jewish parts of Montreal were? Because Hasidim in Britain have tended to stay fairly close to such areas - Stamford Hill is close to the old East End, Broughton Park is close to Cheetham Hill and I don't think the ones in Gateshead have ever moved out of Bensham (probably something to do with the yeshiva there).

[The Head Beagle]

The main Hasidic community is actually in a specific corner of Outremont of all places.

Isn't Outremont close to where the original Jewish parts of Montreal were? Because Hasidim in Britain have tended to stay fairly close to such areas - Stamford Hill is close to the old East End, Broughton Park is close to Cheetham Hill and I don't think the ones in Gateshead have ever moved out of Bensham (probably something to do with the yeshiva there).

Yes, the traditional Jewish community was around the western end of the Plateau and in Mile-End (i.e. NW* Laurier-Ste-Marie & SE* Outremont riding). I don't know how back the Hasidim go in Outremont, so I don't know whether it's just a natural progression north out of the old area or has some other origin.

*(here, as is universal in Montreal, using the geographically inaccurate arrangement according to which the river and downtown are the south, Laval is to the north, la-point-de-l'ile is the east etc., so Boul. St-Laurent is the "western" end of Laurier-Ste-Marie).

[mileslunn]

According to the below Wikipedia article, eastern Lachine is very Bloc while western Lachine is very Liberal.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notre-Dame-de-Gr%C3%A2ce%E2%80%94Lachine

Eastern Lachine is an old French working-class area. Dorval is an Anglo area, though definitely not wealthy compared to Senneville or Kirkland. Montreal West is very Anglo + quite wealthy.

Here's Quebec by MRC:

Whats with those two Liberal ones in the Gaspe region.  Was this more a personal vote for Nancy Charest who was a former MNA.  The other interesting one is the one Liberal one in the Eastern Townships although I believe that area has a sizeable Anglophone community.  In the Eastern Townships, I think the Liberals won most the communities near the US border while the further North one goes the better the Bloc Quebecois did.

Although not surprising, I've often wondered why the Appalaches-Chaudieres region is so much more Conservative than the rest of Quebec.  Other than the fact it borders New Hampshire (which seems like a weak reason to me) it is odd why this region is so much more Conservative than the rest of Quebec.

Chaudieres-Appalaches is an enclave of federalism and economic right-wing views in ultra-Francophone territory. Most of it voted no in 1995.

For example, Beauce is one of thew few seats in rural QC (Pontiac, I think, is the only other one) to have never elected a Bloquiste MP. And maybe the only French-majority riding to
never elect one.

Yeah, those areas of Gaspesie are personal votes for Nancy Charest. The traditional Liberal areas in Gaspesie are those along the border with NB and not touching the ocean.

I understand that it tends to be more pro free enterprise than elsewhere in Quebec, but any particular reason.  I have heard this area has a high rate of entrepreneurs or is it just a cultural thing.  Obviously those who are centre-right would more likely be federalist than sovereignists considering Quebecers tend to support a more interventionist government than English Canadians.  I highly doubt people like Ralph Klein, Mike Harris or even Gordon Campbell could win in Quebec.  There are some conservative nationalist, mostly remnants from the Union Nationale, but they are dying off quickly and today most separtist are generally left wing.  Still while I can understand why centre-right Francophones would be more federalist than separtist, what makes this region so much more libertarian than elsewhere in the province since if you look at the numbers this totally stands out compared to elsewhere in the province.

[mileslunn]

Here is British Columbia by Regional District



Although you can see a coast vs. inland divide, still somewhat more random than so Southern Ontario.  It seems you get more variation in the mountainous areas (i.e. Western Colorado, Western Montana, BC Interior) than you do in the flat areas.  Otherwise one side of a mountain ridge can be quite right wing and other side quite left wing.  The two dark orange ones both have large Aboriginal populations and I believe Aboriginals might even be a majority in Central Coast and Skeena-Queen Charlotte.

[Hatman]

I made quite a few mistakes with BC. Mostly along the southern coast and Vancouver Island.

I hope you're going to do the prairies and Newfoundland

[mileslunn]

I made quite a few mistakes with BC. Mostly along the southern coast and Vancouver Island.

I hope you're going to do the prairies and Newfoundland

I'll get to them over the next little while.

[mileslunn]

Here is Manitoba by census division.



The Blue in the Southern parts is where the vast majority of people of the province live.  Winnipeg, the Tories won, although only in the low 40s, while all the other Southern rural divisions, they got over 50% and most cases over 60%.  If I am not mistaken, I believe the ones in orange and red have an Aboriginal majority.  The Red in the North I think is where Tina Keeper was from so those were probably mostly personal votes, whereas I think Niki Ashton came from the Pas.

[Hashemite]

Saskatchewan ought to be fun.

Alberta won't be fun, 'cause it sucks.

[mileslunn]

Saskatchewan ought to be fun.

Alberta won't be fun, 'cause it sucks.

I'll work on Saskatchewan next.  It will probably be mostly blue, although I think the Liberals may have won a couple of the Northern districts that are predominately Aboriginal.  Alberta will be boring and I think Newfoundland & Labrador will be too as the Liberals outside of the Avalon peninsula won by massive margins thanks due to the NDP being practically non-existent in Rural Newfoundland and Danny Williams' ABC Campaign.  Alberta will be pretty boring.

The one common thing it seems though in the Prairies and even Ontario is once you get far enough North that the land isn't suitable for agriculture the Tories start losing (In Alberta, you can farm in the Northwestern part, while the Northeastern you cannot, but that is where the tar sands are thus it bucks the trend here and I guess you could add the riding of Kenora in too for bucking this trend).

[The Head Beagle]

Huron-Bruce, 2008.


towns:
top row, left to right: Southampton (top)/Port Elgin (bottom); Kincardine; Walkerton.
middle row, left to right: Goderich, Clinton(left)/Seaforth(right); Wingham.
bottom: Exeter


I can't really figure out the rural pattern. As far as I know the whole riding is basically your standard Anglo-with-some-Irish-and-German, and the former socially conservative Liberal MP Steckle was from the more Tory south end of the riding.

The tie in Goderich is Con/NDP, the others Con/Lib.

[Hatman]

Weird!

Huron-Bruce is interesting. What's up with that NDP poll? I think the NDP candidate was the former MPP...

as for Manitoba, I wasn't expecting there to be a Liberal CD! BTW, I think Ashton is from Thompson, not The Pas.

[Sibboleth]

Yeah, Churchill looks like it might be racialised to a predictably ugly extent under the surface there.

[Hatman]

Yeah, Churchill looks like it might be racialised to a predictably ugly extent under the surface there.

How so? Different Tribes voting for different parties?

A poll map of Churchill might be interesting. The fact that most natives in Churchill voted for a White Greek over one of their own is quite amazing, really.

[deansherratt]

You will find that the rural poll vote displays a tendancy for German/Catholic polls to vote Liberal, near the village of Mildmay in Bruce . Normanby township (and Hanover town), on the other hand, are German Lutheran and quite Conservative in County Grey.

[The Head Beagle]

Huron-Bruce is interesting. What's up with that NDP poll? I think the NDP candidate was the former MPP...

It's the former Clinton air force base (of Steven Truscott notoriety), which was decommissioned and made into a civilian town in the 1960's. Given what military housing tends to be like (not bad exactly, but small and standardized), it wouldn't surprise me if it's quite low-income.

In Churchill, there's a surprising number of places whose Tory % shows they're clearly Native but that voted overwhelmingly for Niki Ashton. A few examples...
#39 (Thicket Portage) - NDP 25 Liberal 5 Conservative 1
#41 (York Landing) - NDP 62 Liberal 12 Conservative 0
#44 (Ilford) NDP 31 Liberal 3 Conservative 0
#116 (Pauingassi First Nation) - NDP 128 Liberal 25 Conservative 4
#118 (Little Grand Rapids) - NDP 180 Liberal 60 Conservative 10

Then there's some with the reverse, like:
#107 (Waasagomach) Liberal 80 NDP 24 Conservative 1 Green 1
#108 (Garden Hill) Liberal 122 NDP 15 Conservative 6
#124 (Fort Alexander) Liberal 199 NDP 49 Conservative 6 Green 4

and then some Native areas where they're actually quite close, like:
#5 (Brochet) NDP 41 Liberal 38 Green 2 Conservative 0
#109 (Red Sucker Lake) Liberal 50 NDP 37 Green 3 Conservative 0

[The Head Beagle]

You will find that the rural poll vote displays a tendancy for German/Catholic polls to vote Liberal, near the village of Mildmay in Bruce . Normanby township (and Hanover town), on the other hand, are German Lutheran and quite Conservative in County Grey.

Aha, nice. I had wondered about something like that, since I have noticed that when you drive inland on Hwy 9 from Kincardine there are certain stretches with an increase in signs like "abortion stops a beating heart" and more German names on farms and businesses and so on, but I didn't know well enough to match it with the polls, and I didn't know they were Catholic rather than evangelical.

[Hatman]

Are you from the area?

[deansherratt]

Under "election maps" in the gallery, I have posted several maps of York South riding from 1953 to 1972. This shows the progression of the riding from CCF, (precursor to the NDP) to strongly Conservative in Diefenbaker's great 1958 landslide, to NDP under David Lewis.

[Hatman]

if we can get maps of the by-election ridings, that would be great. (Specifically Riviere-du-Loup and CCMV from 2006)

[Hatman]

Under "election maps" in the gallery, I have posted several maps of York South riding from 1953 to 1972. This shows the progression of the riding from CCF, (precursor to the NDP) to strongly Conservative in Diefenbaker's great 1958 landslide, to NDP under David Lewis.

Always great to see these Keep them coming!

It's too bad this area isn't very NDP friendly anymore. It has potential, as we held it briefly provincially a few years ago.

[Hashemite]

if we can get maps of the by-election ridings, that would be great. (Specifically Riviere-du-Loup and CCMV from 2006)

I already did the M-L'I-R-d-L

[deansherratt]

York South is a riding of the same name, but highly differing demographics nowadays. In fact, in 2007 the Liberals had to take York South back, having lost it in a by-election. In the 1970s, the old anglo-saxon working class neighbourhoods of York Borough gave way to waves of Italian and then some Portuguese immigrants. Many blacks also moved in. All combined to move the riding from an NDP to a (mostly) Liberal stronghold.

In 1984 and 1988, my old roommate in Toronto, Steve Krashinsky, ran for the NDP...came close in 1984 but got badly beaten in 1988 when the ethnic solitary of the voters firmed up behind the Liberals.

It is indeed a neighbourhood that in provincial elections can move back and forth between NDP and Liberals, much like Parkdale-High Park to the south. But federally, it is pretty safe for the Liberals.

[Hatman]

if we can get maps of the by-election ridings, that would be great. (Specifically Riviere-du-Loup and CCMV from 2006)

I already did the M-L'I-R-d-L

Oops. My bad.

York South is a riding of the same name, but highly differing demographics nowadays. In fact, in 2007 the Liberals had to take York South back, having lost it in a by-election. In the 1970s, the old anglo-saxon working class neighbourhoods of York Borough gave way to waves of Italian and then some Portuguese immigrants. Many blacks also moved in. All combined to move the riding from an NDP to a (mostly) Liberal stronghold.

In 1984 and 1988, my old roommate in Toronto, Steve Krashinsky, ran for the NDP...came close in 1984 but got badly beaten in 1988 when the ethnic solitary of the voters firmed up behind the Liberals.

It is indeed a neighbourhood that in provincial elections can move back and forth between NDP and Liberals, much like Parkdale-High Park to the south. But federally, it is pretty safe for the Liberals.

It's safe now, but I suspect if it were an open seat, it would be targeted by the NDP. I'm assuming the Portuguese voted NDP in the 2007 by-election?

[deansherratt]

Can't be totally sure but in both by-election and 2007 general, the NDP candidate ran very well in the old borough of york polls while the Liberals ran best in North York...the polls of which tend to be very Italian and mostly middle-class. So I am basically agreeing with you!

[The Head Beagle]

One (anecdotal, I admit) thing re Churchill as well as Kenora and Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River: I distantly know a guy in Toronto who's from a tiny place way up at the north end of Kenora riding, and he calls both his people and his native language "Oji-Cree", because, he says, the boundary between the more central-Ontario Ojibwe and the more northern Cree is pretty vague up there, with dialects gradually becoming more similar and nobody paying too much attention to who's in which group. Which suggests to me it's unlikely that "tribal differences" would be causing such big differences in voting.

This is really just a guess, but what I would guess instead is that when a local chief supports a particular party, this can become very influential in the community. The one case where I know the party affiliation is Grand Rapids, because the chief is Ovide Mercredi who used to be national Grand Chief of the AFN, and is an NDPer, and at least the polls in the place name Grand Rapids (which I'm not sure lines up completely with the First Nation) were 70% for Ashton to 21% for Keeper.

The thing to remember about most of these places is that they're north of the road network, with the only outside access by bush plane, so a whole order of magnitude more isolated than even very remote places in most first-world countries. It's not like it's easy to hop over to the next reserve on Sunday afternoon to have a little chat about who to vote for.