Canadian federal polling division files

[deansherratt]

I am happy to introduce myself to the Board. I have studied Canadian elections since the early 1970s...I whetted my interest with the 1971 Brant By-election .

Up to now, I have done maps literally by hand and I am trying to figure out how to post some of them to induce some conversation. I have done some deep history, starting with the 1926 federal election for the two member riding of Ottawa...and have taken that forward to Ottawa Centre for 2008.

One distinction I have is that I base my map colours on winning margin, rather than % of Party vote. For example, if the Conservatives win a poll, it will be marked with some tone of blue...I then go to the winning margin over the number two party to determine that tone of colour.

Cheers!

[deansherratt]

Here is my first effort...Don Valley West 2007 provincial. John Tory versus Kathleen Wynne

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=3109167&id=612797173

I'm still trying to figure out how to paste an image in the message, but I have at least created a link to the riding map...

[deansherratt]

Here is another one. Thornhill has both a very large Jewish population as well as Italian. Historically neither are very good territory for the Conservatives, especially in a bad year. However, this is one riding where support for Jewish Schools rang very true for the PCs...In many Jewish polls, the Conservative vote climbed to 80%+

Here is a link to my map...

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=3109168&id=612797173&ref=nf

[deansherratt]

Both maps are finished. I do not colour in industrialized areas where no one lives.

I actually have maps just of the Glebe (in Ottawa Centre/Ottawa West & Carleton/Ottawa) back to 1898...The whole riding from 1926 onwards (except for 1930).

An interesting map is the Temperance Plebisite for 1924.

Here are the poll results for the Glebe...

The Glebe

      PC/C       Lib      NDP/CCF   Other

2008 F      1,359 (20.5) 1,920 (28.9)   2,612 (39.3)    GP 748 (11.3)
2007 P      1,096 (17.1) 2,292 (35.   2,173 (33.9)    GP 843 (13.2)
2006F      1,184 (20.3) 1,609 (27.6)   2,261 (38.    GP 768 (13.3)
2004F           958 (16.2) 1,917 (34.2)   2,451 (41.5)     GP 587 (9.9)   
2003P                            966 (19.0) 2,463 (48.4)   1,170 (23.0)    GP 494 (9.6)
2000F                           836 (14. 1,953 (34.5)         1,837 (32.5)            A 796 (14.1)
1999P        1,439 (28.1) 2,056 (40.2)         1,450 (28.3)         GP 175 (3.4)
1997F         1,196 (19.6) 2,547 (41.   1,828 (30.0)            R 522 (8.6)
1995P         1,199 (24. 1,955 (40.4)   1,595 (33.0)           GP 87 (1.
1993F                           848 (12.9) 2,964 (45.2)   1,965 (29.9)            R 539 (8.2)
1990P                           648 (12.4) 1,926 (36.   2,470 (47.2)         GP 186 (3.6)
1988F         2,074 (30.1) 1,971 (28.6)   2,842 (41.3)
1987P                           684 (13.5) 2,282 (45.2)   2,085 (41.3)
1985P         1,788 (33.5) 1,375 (25.   2,171 (40.7)
1984F         2,343 (33. 1,717 (24.   2,865 (41.4)
1981P         2,221 (45.5) 1,001 (20.5)   1,661 (34.0)
1980F         2,744 (41.6) 2,435 (36.9)   1,413 (21.5)
1979F         3,003 (42.3) 2,337 (32.9)   1,759 (24.
1978FB                     3,153 (51. 1,199 (19.7)   1,736 (28.5)
1977P         2,952 (49.0)    926 (15.4)   2,147 (35.6)
1975P         2,671 (44.1) 1,011 (16.7)   2,379 (39.3)
1974F         3,167 (44. 2,596 (36.   1,299 (18.4)
1972F         3,426 (43. 2,488 (31.   1,916 (24.4)
1971P         3,603 (54.6) 1,341 (20.3)   1,650 (25.1)
1968F         2,999 (41.5) 3,668 (50.     558 (7.7)
1967P         2,848 (55.7) 1,829 (35.     436 (8.5)
1965F         3,103 (47.1) 2,798 (42.4)     692 (10.5)
1963P         3,510 (63.9) 1,653 (30.1)     327 (6.0)
1963F         3,570 (47. 3,554 (47.6)     346 (4.6)
1962F         4,109 (55.9) 2,894 (39.4)     345 (4.7)
1959P         3,350 (62.0) 1,825 (33.     224 (4.2)
1958F         5,565 (67.4) 2,438 (29.5)     253 (3.1)
1957F         4,732 (61.3) 2,742 (35.5)     250 (3.2)
1955P         3,663 (63.9) 1,859 (32.4)     209 (3.6)
1953F         4,254 (56.2) 3,100 (41.0)     216 (2.   
1951P         4,537 (68.9) 1,538 (23.4)     510 (7.7)
1949F         4,496 (51.3) 3,748 (42.     513 (5.9)
1948P         4,005 (64. 1,361 (22.0)     815 (13.2)
1945F         4,774 (58.0) 2,815 (34.2)     527 (6.4)
1945P         5,247 (69.9) 1,503 (20.0)        761 (10.1)
1943P         2,703 (55.7) 1,341 (27.5)     812 (16.7)   
1940F         3,487 (47.1) 3,921 (52.9)     -
1937P         3,884 (60.1) 2,577 (39.9)     -
1935F         3,227 (44.1) 2,805 (38.3)     -        R 1,278(17.5)
1934P         3,396 (53.0) 2,674 (41.     334 (5.2)
1930F        3,585 (60.7) 2,322 (39.3)     -
1929P        accl
1926P         2,381 (52.3) 2,173 (47.7)     -
1926F         3,448 (65.0) 1,854 (35.0)     -    
1925F         3,349 (67.3) 1,630 (32.7)     -
1923P                           998 (38.1) 1,121 (42.      180 (LB) 202 (IC) 121 (I)
1921F         2,428 (55.0) 1,146 (26.0)     837 (PROG) (19.0)
1919P         1,711 (45.5)    767 (20.4)     744 (19. LAB 540 (14.4) I
1917F         2,087 (77.1)   621 (22.9)
1914P                           681 (53.4)     595 (46.6) 
1911P                           538 (72.6)     203 (27.4)
1911F                           715 (63.     405 (36.2)
1910FB                          391 (55.6)     312 (44.4)
1908F                           581 (61.9)     358 (38.1)
1908P                           508 (64.1)     285 (35.9)
1905P             368 (59.7)     248 (40.3)
1904F          296 (56.2)     231 (43.
1902P         283 (68.5)     130 (31.5)
1900F         226 (66.1)     116 (33.9)
1898P         127 (61.1)      81 (38.9)

[deansherratt]

My column macros obviously fell apart...

[deansherratt]

These are an interesting series of duo maps, except for the first which shows the 2000 results (with PC and Alliance votes combined). The 2004, 2006 and 2008 maps are all "duo" The first shows results by graduated winning margins based only on the election day polls. The second folds in the results of the advance polls (which went more heavily Conservative in each case than votes cast on election day) and so the second map for each election is "bluer" than the first.

http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=128311&id=612797173&saved#/album.php?aid=128311&id=612797173

[deansherratt]

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=3109167&id=612797173

To SoFA EarlAW...See above link to my map showing 2007 results for Ottawa Centre.  It should be noted that this was a Liberal year though a popular Liberal MPP (Richard Patten) retired so the NDP hoped to have a chance to take the riding.

Both ran rather tightly across the riding, the results everywhere were close. In general the NDP ran better in rental polls while the Liberals ran best in home owners polls.

The NDP often runs well in the Glebe as you have noted. Again however, they run better in the east side of the Glebe which has more rental units and row housing than the west side and the "Avenues" - streets like Glebe, First Avenue, Clemow and Powell which are all very high income.

[deansherratt]

A protracted labour of love. First, Elections Canada for a longtime kept returning officer's working files from 1935 onwards.  Very fortunately, I was on site when they decided to move all these files to the Archives. Archives originally decided to keep a few as samples and throw out everything else but I convinced them that many of these files also contained poll maps (in addition to poll descriptions in the form of "grant of polls" already microfilmed by Archives).

Thus the poll maps were saved for some elections from 1935 onwards, but not all.

Next, I noticed that earlier elections often seemed to follow what I consequently found to be municipal poll boundaries. Armed with this, I was able to find their grants of poll for elections in the 1920s...

Now drawing maps from a poll description is no fun and very labour intensive. But I did it for the 1926 federal and the 1924 provincial temperance plebiscite. I then one by one completed all the Ottawa West (as it was then known) maps from 1935-1965 and then Ottawa Centre thereafter. 

I have these in a paper collection of hand-coloured maps. I can probably engage my wife (who is a good photographer) and take pictures of them and then scan them...thereafter posting them here once I get the hang of things. 

I also created a file for both federal and provincial election results by "neighbourhood" from 1900 and 1898 respectively. Early neighbourhods were really just the Ottawa City Wards but as the city grew, I created more that seemed distinctive, like the Glebe, Ottawa South, Sandy Hill, the By Ward, Elmdale, Alta Vista, Riverside Park etc...These I can probably post in the results section...They are current to 2008.

[deansherratt]

My maps will come as fast as I can either load them to the site (not yet possible with my feeble tech knowledge) or place in a website where I can link to them (that I have figured out!).

It is thoroughly enjoyable to see the work and read the comments of fellow fanatics like myself.

It is easy reading between the lines or by phrases much less subtle that we have differing political affiliations here. I myself am as Tory as they come but wish to assure all that my affiliations and partisanship will drop from me as the softest fleece as I engage you all in examining this wondrous combination of science and artistry!

[deansherratt]

Like a kid in a candy shop, I would like the Kitchener Waterloo Conurbation...

[deansherratt]

Hey everyone. I took the opportunity to look through my paper map collection in order to see what maps I might add when I am able to post. Among the more interesting are York South in 1953 (Noseworthy's last win for the CCF - he defeated Arthur Meighen in the famous 1942 By-election) and 1962 - David Lewis' first victory federally. I also have Trinity in 1949 - showing the last relatively strong Communist vote in a federal riding (Tim Buck won about 20-30 polls, mostly in the Kensington Market area). Ditto for the Toronto Mayoral contests of David Crombie/Rotenberg/O'Donahue in 1971 and Sewell/Eggleton (?) in 1981 or so? I finally have quite a collection of federal maps of Etobicoke from the 1970s and 1980s - that is when I started out mapping and I lived in Etobicoke Centre.

I also have some maps that I purchased or got over the years. A rather unusual one is a UK general election from about 1885 or so. It was a pretty big Liberal victory and also shows the Irish Nationalists taking most of the seats in Ireland by acclamation.

Anyway, I should get posting privileges soon and look forward to a big download.

[deansherratt]

One of the more interesting ones...an obvious distinction between north and south Oshawa but this is a riding that was thoroughly NDP for many years. The city first voted CCF in 1937, in large part to the reaction against Mitch Hepburn's calling in the police to break up an autoworkers strike but the riding as a whole (Ontario)remained Liberal.

It was Broadbent's fiefdom from 1968 till he retired from politics (the first time).

The demographic/political makeover of the riding became apapretn in 1995 when it went from massively NDP to solidly PC in the provincial election. The Reform/Alliance also ran well federally (1993/1997/2000) till the riding fell to the Conservatives in 2004. 

An interesting question is the extent to which Sid Ryan aids or hinders his cause - he has certainly run for election enough times.

[deansherratt]

Mississauga/Brampton and all of Metropolitian Toronto would be marvelous choices.

[deansherratt]

...and who could object to Quebec City?

[deansherratt]

Why so? There aren't too many Bloc polls there and plenty of Tory ones...Can we cheer you up by trying to add Levis?

[deansherratt]

I could probably do Saint Johns in five minutes with or without poll boundaries. Like the left and right lobes of Danny Williams' brain, all bright red and all bright orange with little differentiation. Bonavista might at least be a little engaging...the poll maps might also be interesting because of the many small outports.

[deansherratt]

Great additions! Doing more than one riding at a time gives remarkable context...

[deansherratt]

While the Green vote in Calgary is larger than you think, I wouldn't put that city on my number one option for the next map list...

[deansherratt]

If changing your name to Democratic Party loses you a bargaining chip to the Bloc, then you are playing "penny ante poker".

But seriously, it is an interesting issue. But remember to heed the extemporaneous advice of the great Arthur Meighen on the importance of names:

"...And as usual he feels that he has clinched his argument when he denominates us Tories. That appellation ends the discussion in the mind of the hon. member. I never put much store by names; I put far more store by deeds and records, and I would rather belong to a party under any name on earth, a party that stands to its principles through storm and through sunshine, through adversity and through prosperity, in power and out of power, and that applies those principles in progressive legislation to meet the needs of the hour as the hours advance, than belong to a party which, though called in honour of the angels of heaven, cannot describe its principles for the life of it, can only sermonize in language of evasion and of mystery, and cannot adhere to any policy for a single session or even from week to week."

[deansherratt]

That former borough is the last place God made. Why would anyone be interested in it? Even when it had competitive elections and interesting MPs (that was both a long time ago), I was bored with the place.

[deansherratt]

Brampton has quite a large number of South Asians as does Malton. West Brampton riding has what might be considered "old Brampton" which voted rather Conservative on this map. The Brampton-Malton riding has a bit of a contest between a traditonally Conservative section of Brampton and arch-Liberal Malton.  For history buffs, Malton was an employment centre for the aricraft industry when the Diefenbaker Government cancelled the Avro-Areo. It voted heavily Liberal in the next election, tipping the balance in 1962 and has voted Liberal more or less since.

[deansherratt]

Why not just go up the alphabet and rename the party the ODP (for Old) New Democrats.

Actually it is an interesting issue as the Party is better known by its acronym than the full name.

[deansherratt]

All the map-makers need to be thanked and so I offer it for the excellent Brampton map!

[deansherratt]

I think civil servants are well-distributed around Ottawa - Ottawa-Vanier has the most apparently but there is no concentration.

I don't see civil servants voting en bloc for any party, though perhaps on the Quebec side they may do more so for the Liberals as opposed to the Bloc Quebecois.

Remember that civil servants are employees - so they look on the federal government as both a provider of policies and employment. The Conservatives are pretty similar to the Liberals as employers...I might even give them an edge as the Liberals under Chretien froze pay for 5 long years from 1993-1998.

The Liberals are also greater sinners as far as patronage appointments are concerned. The Conservatives have made far fewer patronage appointments than the Liberals who were notorious under Chretien and Martin both. They also stopped the practice of allowing their ministerial staffers to float into the civil service after a number of years of service on a preferred basis.

The other side of the coin is that some civil servants are probably used to working for a Liberal government and tend to adopt the Liberal world view, perhaps especially in more senior ranks.

In any event, in Ottawa generally in 2008, there was no trend either way, while the rest of Ontario was swinging Conservative - a suggestion that civil servants may have been less enthusiastic. But the city ridings voted Conservative overall by a pretty good margin.

[deansherratt]

Now there is one voting bloc which is almost entirely composed of government workers...namely the "Special Voting Rules - II" category...voters employed by the government who are abroad or elsewhere in Canada. Who are they? The large majority are military and many of the rest are foreign service officers serving in diplomatic missions overseas. In Ottawa, there are more diplomatic voters compared to the military as they usually maintain their primary residence in Ottawa.

These SVR voters were traditionally very Liberal - up to the Mulroney years when they trended sharply Conservative. Liberal again during the Chretien years, in 2008 they once more swung very Conservative. It certainly speaks to the military as thinking the new government were friends of the restoration of the neglected state of the armed forces. These are not merely generals, but privates and ordinary enlisted men...There is no doubt that this particular group trended sharply Conservative from 2006-8.